Modelling industrial energy demand in Saudi Arabia

Between 1986 and 2016, industrial energy consumption in Saudi Arabia increased by tenfold, making it one of the largest end-use sectors in the Kingdom. Despite its importance, there appear to be no published econometric studies on aggregate industrial energy demand in Saudi Arabia. We model aggregate industrial energy demand in Saudi Arabia using Harvey’s (1989) Structural Time Series Model, showing that it is both price and income inelastic, with estimated long-run elasticities of −0.34 and 0.60, respectively. The estimated underlying energy demand trend suggests improvements in energy efficiency starting from 2010.Applying decomposition analysis to the estimated econometric equation highlights the prominent roles of the activity effect (the growth in industrial value added) and the structure effect (the shift towards energy-intensive production) in driving industrial energy demand growth. Moreover, the decomposition shows how exogenous factors such as energy efficiency helped mitigate some of that growth, delivering cumulative savings of 6.8 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) between 2010 and 2016.Saudi Arabia implemented a broad energy price reform program in 2016, which raised electricity, fuel, and water prices for households and industry. The decomposition results reveal that, holding all else constant, higher industrial energy prices in 2016 reduced the sector’s energy consumption by 6.9 %, a decrease of around 3.0 Mtoe. Saudi policymakers could therefore build on the current policy of energy price reform and energy efficiency standards to mitigate the rate of growth of industrial energy consumption, increase economic efficiency, and maintain industrial sector competitiveness.     

Correlation between Chinese and international energy prices based on a HP filter and time difference analysis

To establish a reasonable system and mechanism for Chinese energy prices, we use the Granger causality test, Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter and time difference analysis to research the pricing relationship between Chinese and international energy prices. We find that Chinese and international crude oil prices changed synchronously while Chinese refined oil prices follow the changes of international oil prices with the time difference being about 1 month to 2 months. Further, Australian coal prices Granger causes Chinese coal prices, and there is a high correlation between them. The U.S. electricity price is influenced by the WTI crude oil price, the U.S. gasoline price and the HenryHub gas price. Due to the unreasonable price-setting mechanism and regulation from the central government, China′s terminal market prices for both electricity and natural gas do not reflect the real supply–demand situation. This paper provides quantitative results on the correlation between Chinese and international energy prices to better predict the impact of international energy price fluctuations on China′s domestic energy supply and guide the design of more efficient energy pricing policies. Moreover, it provides references for developing countries to improve their energy market systems and trading, and to coordinate domestic and international energy markets.     

Oil and natural gas prices and greenhouse gas emission mitigation

The hikes in hydrocarbon prices during the last years have lead to concern about investment choices in the energy system and uncertainty about the costs for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. On the one hand, high prices of oil and natural gas increase the use of coal; on the other hand, the cost difference between fossil-based energy and non-carbon energy options decreases. We use the global energy model TIMER to explore the energy system impacts of exogenously forced low, medium and high hydrocarbon price scenarios, with and without climate policy. We find that without climate policy high hydrocarbon prices drive electricity production from natural gas to coal. In the transport sector, high hydrocarbon prices lead to the introduction of alternative fuels, especially biofuels and coal-based hydrogen. This leads to increased emissions of CO₂. With climate policy, high hydrocarbon prices cause a shift in electricity production from a dominant position of natural gas with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) to coal-with-CCS, nuclear and wind. In the transport sector, the introduction of hydrogen opens up the possibility of CCS, leading to a higher mitigation potential at the same costs. In a more dynamic simulation of carbon price and oil price interaction the effects might be dampened somewhat.     

Fuel choice and aggregate energy demand in the residential and commercial sectors

The energy demand response of the residential and commercial sectors to fuel price changes is of increasing importance to public policy makers. In this paper, the demands for energy in both sectors are examined separately using a refined data base. For each sector, a multinomial logit formulation is utilized, along with an aggregate demand equation to determine analytically short- and long-run fuel price elasticities of demand for the major fuels consumed. It is found that increases in energy prices have a greater effect on energy demand in the commercial sector. Furthermore, in both sectors, raising electricity prices has a greater effect for conserving energy (both end-use and primary) than do equal price rises for natural gas or heating oils.     

How the removal of energy subsidy affects general price in China: A study based on input–output model

In China, most energy prices are controlled by the government and are under-priced, which means energy subsidies existing. Reforming energy subsidies have important implications for sustainable development through their effects on energy price, energy use and CO₂ emission. This paper applies a price-gap approach to estimate China's fossil-fuel related subsidies with the consideration of the external cost. Results indicate that the magnitude of subsidies amounted to CNY 1214.24 billion in 2008, equivalent to 4.04% of GDP of that year. Subsidies for oil products are the largest, followed by subsidies for the coal and electricity. Furthermore, an input–output model is used to analyze the impacts of energy subsidies reform on different industries and general price indexes. The findings show that removal of energy subsidies will have significant impact on energy-intensive industry, and consequently push up the general price level, yet with a small variation. Removing oil products subsidies will have the largest impact, followed by electricity, coal and natural gas. However, no matter which energy price increases, PPI is always the most affected, then GDP deflator, with CPI being the least. Corresponding compensation measures should be accordingly designed to offset the negative impact caused by energy subsidies reform.     

Can market oriented economic reforms contribute to energy efficiency improvement? Evidence from China

Since China accelerated its market oriented economic reforms at the end of 1992, its energy intensity has declined 3.6% annually over 1993–2005. However, its energy intensity declined 4.2% annually during its first reform period 1979–1992. Therefore, can we conclude that the accelerated marketization since the end of 1992 has made no contribution to its energy efficiency improvement? In order to answer this challenging question, we examine the changes of energy own-price elasticity, as well as the elasticities of substitution between energy and non-energy (capital and labor) in China during the periods of 1979–1992 and 1993–2003. Generally, in transition or developing economies, holding the technology and output level fixed, if the energy own-price elasticity (algebraic value) declines or the substitution elasticity between factors rises, they will contribute to energy efficiency improvement. Our empirical study finds that: (1) during 1979–1992, the energy own-price elasticity is positive (0.285), and capital-energy, labor-energy are both Morishima complementary; which indicates a distorted energy price and inefficient allocation; and (2) during 1993–2003, the own-price elasticity for energy is negative (−1.236), and capital-energy and labor-energy are both Morishima substitute. All factor demands become more elastic, and all elasticities of substitution increase. The implication is that the accelerated marketization contributes substantially to energy efficiency improvement since 1993.     

Cost and benefit of renewable energy in the European Union

An assessment is made as to whether renewable energy use for electricity generation in the EU was beneficial throughout the cycle of high and low oil prices. Costs and benefits are calculated with the EU statistics for the period of low oil prices 1998–2002 and high oil prices 2003–2009. The share of renewable energy in electricity production was 21% of all energy resources in 2008, growing on average 5% a year during 2003–2008 compared to nil growth of the fossil fuels mix. Correlations show significant impacts of growing renewable energy use on changes in consumers' electricity prices during the high and rapidly increasing fossil fuel prices in the period 2005–2008. The growing use has contributed to price decrease in most countries that use more renewable energy and price increase in many countries that use little renewable energy. Costs and benefits are assessed through comparison between the observed consumers' electricity prices and simulated prices had they followed the costs of fossil fuel mix. A net benefit of 47 billion euro throughout the oil price cycle is attributable to the growing use of renewable energy, which is on average 8 billion euro a year. This net benefit is larger than the total public support for renewable energy. The net benefit would be larger had the EU anticipated high oil prices through more public support during low oil prices, as this would create productive capacity, but countries' interests increasingly differed. An anti-cyclic EU policy is recommended.     

Provincial energy intensity in China: The role of urbanization

Chinese policymakers have attached great importance to energy intensity reduction. However, the unprecedented urbanization process exercises additional pressure on the realization of energy intensity reduction targets. A better understanding of the impacts of urbanization is necessary for designing effective policies aimed at reaching the next energy intensity reduction targets. This paper empirically investigates the impacts of urbanization on China's aggregate and disaggregated energy intensities using a balanced panel dataset of 30 provinces covering the period from 2000 to 2012 and panel estimation techniques. The results show that urbanization significantly increases aggregate energy intensity, electricity intensity and coal intensity.     

White Certificates for energy efficiency improvement with energy taxes: A theoretical economic model

In this paper we analyze interactions of two energy policy instruments, namely a White Certificates (WhC) scheme as an innovative policy instrument for energy efficiency improvement and energy taxation. These policy instruments differ in terms of objectives and final impacts on the price of electricity. We examine the effect of these policy instruments in the electricity sector, focusing on electricity producers and suppliers in a competitive market. Using microeconomic theory, we identify synergies between market players and demonstrate the total effect on the electricity price when suppliers internalize the behaviour of producers in their decisions. This model refers to an ideal market situation of full liberalization. The cases we examine consist of electricity producers with and without a carbon tax, electricity suppliers with and without an electricity tax, and with WhC obligations. Furthermore, we present a parallel implementation of WhC for electricity suppliers with carbon tax on electricity producers and an electricity tax with WhC obligations to electricity suppliers. We demonstrate differences in optimization behaviour of producers and suppliers. Based on a couple of cases of WhC with carbon and electricity taxes, various positive and negative effects of both schemes in terms of target achievement and efficiency are present, which can lead to an added value of such schemes in the policy mix, although uncertainties of outcomes are quite high. A basic finding is that in a merit order several parameters can increase final electricity price after the implementation of different policies: demand for electricity and electricity supply cost at a large scale and then follow the level of level of obligation for energy saving, level of penalty, and price of WhC (representing the marginal costs of energy saving projects). The impact magnitude of parameters depends on the values chosen and on the initial position of suppliers (i.e. if their actual behaviour deviates from full compliance with targets).     

Estimates of energy subsidies in China and impact of energy subsidy reform

For a transitional economy such as China, some energy subsidies are reasonable, and sometimes even necessary for achieving social goals. However, with rising energy prices and environmental concerns, we see conflicts emerging between energy subsidies, energy demand/supply fundamentals and climate change considerations. Energy subsidies have important implications for sustainable development through their effects on energy use, efficiency and the choice of fuel source. This paper applies the price-gap approach to estimate China's energy subsidies. Results indicate that China's energy subsidies amounted to CNY 356.73 billion in 2007, equivalent to 1.43% of GDP. Subsidies for oil products consumption are the largest, followed by subsidies for the electricity and coal sectors. Furthermore, a CGE model is used to analyze the economic impacts of energy subsidy reforms. Our findings show that removing energy subsidies will result in a significant fall in energy demand and emissions, but will have negative impacts on macroeconomic variables. We conclude that offsetting policies could be adopted such that certain shares of these subsidies are reallocated to support other sustainable development measures, which could lead to reducing energy intensity and favoring the environment.     

Price elasticities of residential electricity demand: Estimates from household panel data in Bangladesh

We collect a household level panel dataset to estimate the price elasticities of electricity demand for different types of urban households in Bangladesh. We use an instrumental variable estimation strategy which exploits exogenous variation in average electricity prices induced by a value-added-tax shock. The results indicate significant heterogeneity in price elasticities by electricity consumption levels. We conduct a number of simulations under alternative policy scenarios to illustrate how incorporating the heterogeneous nature of price elasticities into pricing policy can help decrease electricity demand-supply mismatch and inequality in electricity consumption. The results have important policy implications for developing countries aiming to address major energy issues by implementing tariff reforms.     

An empirical analysis of energy demand in Namibia

Using a unique database of end-user local energy data and the recently developed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration, we estimate the long-run elasticities of the Namibian energy demand function at both aggregated level and by type of energy (electricity, petrol and diesel) for the period 1980–2002. Our main results show that energy consumption responds positively to changes in GDP and negatively to changes in energy price and air temperature. The differences in price elasticities across fuels uncovered by this study have significant implications for energy taxation by Namibian policy makers. We do not find any significant cross-price elasticities between different fuel types.     

Response of residential electricity demand to price: The effect of measurement error

In this paper we present an empirical analysis of the residential demand for electricity using annual aggregate data at the state level for 48 US states from 1995 to 2007. Earlier literature has examined residential energy consumption at the state level using annual or monthly data, focusing on the variation in price elasticities of demand across states or regions, but has failed to recognize or address two major issues. The first is that, when fitting dynamic panel models, the lagged consumption term in the right-hand side of the demand equation is endogenous. This has resulted in potentially inconsistent estimates of the long-run price elasticity of demand. The second is that energy price is likely mismeasured.To address these issues, we estimate a dynamic partial adjustment model using the Kiviet corrected Least Square Dummy Variables (LSDV) (1995) and the Blundell–Bond (1998) estimators. We find that the long-term elasticities produced by the Blundell–Bond system GMM methods are largest, and that from the bias-corrected LSDV are greater than that from the conventional LSDV. From an energy policy point of view, the results obtained using the Blundell–Bond estimator where we instrument for price imply that a carbon tax or other price-based policy may be effective in discouraging residential electricity consumption and hence curbing greenhouse gas emissions in an electricity system mainly based on coal and gas power plants.     

Modelling useful energy demand system as derived from basic needs in the household sector

Inter-fuel substitution in the household sector depends on whether their target energy use is similar or not. To account for the effect of end-use application on energy demand, the concept of useful energy is utilized in which energy carriers are grouped according to their end-use applications. Useful energy is assumed as a commodity demanded to satisfy needs. Therefore, it should possess certain characteristics in accordance with the nature of basic needs. These characteristics were investigated through a two-level budgeting system with demographic variables indicating rural and urban households of Iran. The model has been applied to estimate the behavioural parameters such as income and price elasticities of useful energy demand. The estimated values of income and own-price elasticity show that all categories of useful energy are necessities with a relatively inelastic demand. Among them, cooling and non-substitutable electricity has the highest income and own-price elasticity, while lighting and water heating are ranked as the most necessary types of useful energy due to their low-income elasticity. In addition, small values of cross price elasticities support the idea that different types of useful energy are almost independent. Therefore, the results confirm that useful energy demands could be considered as basic needs.     

Swedish industry and Kyoto—An assessment of the effects of the European CO2 emission trading system

We assess the effects on Swedish industry input demands and output of different climate policy scenarios connected to energy policy induced by the Kyoto protocol. We use a unique dataset containing firm-level data on outputs and inputs between 1991 and 2001 to estimate a factor demand model, which we use to simulate different policy scenarios. Sector-specific estimation suggests that the proposed quadratic profit function specification exhibits properties and robustness that are consistent with economic theory; that is, all own-price elasticities are negative and all output elasticities are positive. Furthermore, the elasticities show that the input demands are, in most cases, relatively inelastic. Simulation of the model for six different policy scenarios reveal that effects on the Swedish base industry of a EU-level permit-trading system depends on (i) the removal or maintenance of the current CO₂ tax, (ii) the price of permits, and (iii) the future price of electricity. Our analysis shows that changes in electricity price may be more important than the price of permits for some sectors.     

The energy demand in the manufacturing sector of Pakistan: some further results

The purpose of this study was to re-examine the role of energy in the manufacturing sector of Pakistan using a Partial Equilibrium Approach. GL restricted cost function along with the factor demand equations were estimated using Zellner’s iterative procedure. Higher energy prices do not seem to adversely affect investment in capital. Substitution possibilities between energy and non-energy inputs are very limited and therefore energy price hikes may directly affect the cost of production. Inter-fuel cross price elasticities indicate that there are substitution possibilities between electricity and gas.     

Turkish aggregate electricity demand: An outlook to 2020

This paper investigates the relationship between Turkish aggregate electricity consumption, GDP and electricity prices in order to forecast future Turkish aggregate electricity demand. To achieve this, an aggregate electricity demand function for Turkey is estimated by applying the structural time series technique to annual data over the period 1960 to 2008. The results suggest that GDP, electricity prices and a UEDT (Underlying Energy Demand Trend) are all important drivers of Turkish electricity demand. The estimated income and price elasticities are found to be 0.17 and −0.11 respectively with the estimated UEDT found to be generally upward sloping (electricity using) but at a generally decreasing rate. Based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish aggregate electricity demand will be somewhere between 259 TWh and 368 TWh in 2020.     

Structural changes in industrial electricity use: the case of the pulp and paper industry in Sweden

The purpose of this paper is to analyse altering energy demand patterns and energy factor substitution possibilities over time in the pulp and paper industry in order to increase our understanding of suitable policy options for increasing energy efficiency. The investigation employs a flexible translog cost function and an unbalanced panel data set covering 32 pulp and paper mills over the time period 1974–2005 in Sweden. Specifically, we test whether energy factor demand patterns in the industry for the period 1974–1990 differ from those during the latter period, 1991–2005. The empirical results reveal that even though the Swedish pulp and paper industry is relatively insensitive to changes in energy factor input prices in the short run, we find evidence of significant changes over time. According to the results, the own-price sensitivity of fuel has increased since the 1970s and the 1980s, thus indicating that fuel demand has become more sensitive to short-run changes in relative prices. The estimated cross-price elasticities between electricity and fuel also support the hypothesis of increased substitutability over time. However, the null hypothesis of an equal own-price elasticity of electricity demand across the two time periods cannot be rejected.     

Structural change and Thailand energy demand

This paper examines the impact of changes in the structure of the economy, radical changes in economic policy and oil price shocks on the relation between Thailand energy demand and its macroeconomic determinants. The impact of these structural changes on the relationship between energy consumption, income, energy prices and structural variation is examined through unit root and cointegration tests, the cointegration relationship and the error correction model. Methods which endogenize the location of an a priori unknown break point are employed to assess the impact of structural change. In general, the recognition of structural change has lead to some unique insights. In particular, the results of some of the conventional unit root and cointegration tests are reversed once structural changes are recognized. Estimates from the cointegrating regression imply long-run income, price, and structural variation elasticities of 0.568, −0.600 and 1.046, respectively. In comparison, estimates from the error correction model suggest a higher short-run income elasticity (0.788) but lower short-run price and structural variation elasticities (−0.522 and 0.491, respectively). One of the important implications of the estimates pertains to the low price elasticity for aggregate energy demand which implies that the over-pricing of energy as a policy instrument is not likely to be very influential for restraining future energy demand. Additionally, taxes on energy prices are unlikely to achieve government goals for energy conservation and environmental improvement, although they may well be efficient for raising revenue. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Industrial electricity demand and energy efficiency policy: the case of the Swedish mining industry

The purpose of this paper is to analyze long-run electricity demand behavior in the Swedish mining industry with special emphasis on the impact of energy prices and private research and development (R & D) on electricity use. Methodologically, we estimate a generalized Leontief variable cost function using a panel data set of nine mining operations over the time period 1990–2005. Since the lower boundary of a set of short-run cost functions confines the long-run cost function, we can compute the long-run own- and cross-price elasticities of electricity demand. The empirical results indicate that long-run electricity demand in the mining industry is sensitive to changes in the own price, and already in a baseline setting Swedish mining companies tend to allocate significant efforts towards improving energy efficiency, in part through private R & D. From a policy perspective, the results imply that taxes (and tax exemptions) on electricity can have significant long-run impacts on electricity use. Moreover, future evaluations of so-called voluntary energy efficiency programs must increasingly recognize the already existing incentives to reduce energy use in energy-intensive industries.