Electricity capacity expansion in Thailand: An analysis of gas dependence and fuel import reliance

Electricity generation in Thailand is highly dependant on natural gas. Recent research has revealed that the Thai economy would become more vulnerable from high gas dependence in the power sector. This paper aims to assess the economic impact of gas dependence in power generation in the coming decades. To fulfil this objective, two scenarios of electricity capacity planning were developed and the results were analysed to understand the changes in gas dependence and the effects on import reliance. It is found that from 2011 to 2025, the average cost of natural gas for power generation will account for 2.41% of gross domestic product (GDP) while high oil price in international energy markets would push this cost to 2.97% of GDP. In addition, reliance on fuel imports for power generation, particularly natural gas and coal, is going to be another crucial concern to the security of energy supply as the costs of these imports during the planning horizon will increase significantly at an average rate of 6.78% per year.     

European key issues concerning natural gas: Dependence and vulnerability

Due to the high demand for natural gas from emerging countries and because natural gas has become an increasingly valuable resource is electricity production, natural gas demand should increase. This paper re-examines the geopolitical key issues related to natural gas as well as the uneven distribution of natural gas resources on a worldwide scale. This paper proposes to define the significance of liquefied natural gas in gas exchanges and it analyses the problem of European gas vulnerability using several indicators.     

Fossil-fuel dependence and vulnerability of electricity generation: Case of selected European countries

This paper analyses the diversity of fuel mix for electricity generation in selected European countries and investigates how the fuel bill has changed as a share of GDP between 1995 and 2005. The drivers of fuel-dependence-related vulnerability are determined using Laspeyres index decomposition. A “what-if” analysis is carried out to analyse the changes in the vulnerability index due to changes in the drivers and a scenario analysis is finally used to investigate the future vulnerability in the medium term.     

Expanding electricity capacity in Thailand to meet the twin challenges of supply security and environmental protection

Rapid growth in electricity demand in Thailand is a major challenge for electric utilities trying to ensure adequate supply. Continued reliance on natural gas for power supply makes the supply mix non-diversified and exposes the country to supply risks while a diversification to other fossil fuels imposes additional environmental burdens. To find an acceptable solution to this twin challenge, this paper assesses four scenarios of electricity capacity expansion planning for Thailand for the period between 2011 and 2025 under two different assumptions of fuel prices to reflect the case of international high oil price affecting cost of fuels for power generation in Thailand. It is found that the lowest environmental emissions are obtained from the scenario where power generation is highly dominated by natural gas. In contrast, the least cost electricity generation is achieved from the case if nuclear power plant is added into the Thai power system. Reliance on natural gas for power generation increases the spending on gas purchase as a share of the gross domestic product (GDP)—between 2.38% and 3.61% of (GDP). In addition, fuel import dependence, particularly for natural gas and coal, increases exposing the country to possible price volatility.     

Natural gas power generation in Brazil: New window of opportunity?

This survey analyses the need as well as the attractiveness of private investment in natural gas thermal power generation under the Brazilian new power sector reform. Providing a scenario analysis from 2004 to 2014, this paper focuses on the investor perspective, and concludes that investments in natural gas thermal power plants in Brazil are not feasible, without financial subsidies stimulating investors. The more wary of risk both government and society are, and the more averse to risk the investor is, the higher the probability of higher capacity payment to provide incentives to investors. The alternative would be a lower capacity payment combined with higher thermal power tariffs; meaning that generators would receive much more payment when operating, despite assuming higher risks. Additionally, the improvement in safety supply cost is estimated and a sensibility analysis on the actual variables is performed.     

Assessment of potential for natural gas-based cogeneration in Thailand

Using the results of a comprehensive data analysis of final energy consumption in industry and commercial buildings, the assessment has been made of the potential for gradual implementation of cogeneration plants in these facilities. In doing so, plans for the expansion of the natural gas pipeline distribution network in Thailand are taken into consideration. The sample comprises of 2540 factories and 1651 commercial buildings from which it was found that 817 factories and 966 commercial buildings were suitable for the implementation of natural gas-based cogeneration technologies until 2020. By the implementation of cogeneration in these facilities, it is possible to save 3.2% of the total primary energy consumption in Thailand in 2003.     

Potential of practical implementation of rice straw-based power generation in Thailand

This paper uses life cycle assessment to evaluate the potential of rice straw power plant implementation in Thailand in terms of GHG emission savings from avoided open burning and from implementing rice straw power production, which can substitute that from natural gas. Annually, 8.5–14.3 Mt rice straw burning contributes 5.0–8.6 MtCO₂-eq which could be converted to 786–1325 MW of power, yielding a total greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction of 7.8–13.2 MtCO₂-eq. Moreover, 1090–1837 Mm³ of natural gas could be substituted annually. A total of 25 provinces in central Thailand have potential to generate electricity with a total capacity of 210–292 MW (plant efficiency 20–27%), resulting in an annual GHG emission savings of 2.3–2.6 MtCO₂-eq, and with a provincial capacity of over 20 MW in 6 provinces, 10–20 MW in 7 provinces, 1–10 MW in 6 provinces and less than 1 MW in 6 provinces.     

Power system economics : The value of natural gas in electricity generation

The study reported in this paper is concerned with assessing the value of natural gas in power generation. It had previously been assumed that this value is equal to price(s) of displaced fuel(s). A methodology is derived to assess this value in integrated supply systems and results are derived for a hypothetical system. It is shown that the value is system specific and may be equal to, greater than or less than the value of displaced fuel. The methodology and results reported are relevant to the debate on gas parity pricing.     

The effects of introducing natural gas in the Canary Islands for electricity generation

This study analyses the economic effects of introducing natural gas in the Canary Islands to generate electricity in combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plants. To this end we will evaluate how this measure contributes to achieving the objectives of the islands’ energy policy and we calculate the cost of generating a kWh from this technology. For this calculation we obtain the net present value (NPV) of the total production costs during the economic lifetime of the plant so as to subsequently find the unitary cost per kWh generated. The result obtained indicates that the kWh cost is some 25% lower than the cost of using petroleum derivatives. Additionally, if we consider the positive effect of CO₂ emissions reductions, the cost is 41% lower. The introduction of natural gas will also be a decisive factor in complying with Kyoto requirements and in diversifying supply sources in the Canaries.     

Conceptual design and system analysis of a poly-generation system for power and olefin production from natural gas

In this paper, a novel poly-generation system for olefin and power production from natural gas is proposed, which integrates hydrocarbon production and the combined cycle power generation. Economic and technological evaluation based on the internal rate of return (IRR) and exergy efficiency is performed. The energy integration results in the proposed poly-generation system for simultaneous production of chemical products (ethylene and propylene) and electricity being more thermodynamically efficient and economically viable than single purpose power generation and chemical products production plants. IRR and exergy efficiency of the proposed poly-generation system are higher than that of natural gas methanol to olefin (NGMTO) system, 18.9% and 49.9%, respectively. The biggest exergy destruction segments, their causes, and possible measures for improvement are investigated simulation and thermodynamic analysis. To analyze the effect of unreacted syngas recycle on the exergy efficiency and economic gains from the proposed poly-generation system, its thermoeconomic optimization model is built by combining economic with thermodynamic analysis. Optimization analysis shows that when 78% of the unreacted syngas is recycled back to the reactor in the methanol synthesization process, the thermoeconomic performance of the poly-generation system is at its optimum.     

Logistics cost analysis of rice straw for biomass power generation in Thailand

The logistics of the fuel supply have a large impact on the economy of a biomass power generation facility, especially for low density biomass fuels like straw. A detailed cost analysis of a typical rice straw logistics process for two baling options in three regions of Thailand shows that the costs for all logistics operations vary from a minimum of 18.75 USD/t for small rectangular bales in the Northern region of Thailand to maximum 19.89 USD/t for large rectangular bales in the North-eastern region. The difference in costs is not very significant due to the higher ownership and operating costs of the equipment for using large rectangular bales; however, the specific fuel consumption cost is substantially lower by around 17.5% and a total transport cost reduction is about 31.5%. Analysis of the logistics economies of scale for projected power plant capacities of 2-35 MW_e showed that each doubling the capacity of the energy facility increases the specific costs of the logistics operations only by around 4% in all regions.     

The development of natural gas supply costs to Europe,the United States and Japan in a globalizing gas market—Model-based analysis until 2030

Quickly declining natural gas reserves in some parts of the world, increasing demand in today's major gas consuming regions, the emergence of new demand centres and the globalization of natural gas markets caused by the rising importance of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are changing global gas supply structures and will continue to do so over the next decades. Applying a global gas market model, we produce a forecast for global gas supply to 2030 and determine the supplier-specific long-run average costs of gas supplied to three major consuming regions. Results for the three regions are compared and analysed with a focus on costs, supply diversification and the different roles of LNG. We find that while European and Japanese external gas supply will be less diversified in international comparison, gas can be supplied at relatively low costs due to the regions’ favourable locations in geographic proximity to large gas producers. The US market's supply structure on the other hand will significantly change from its current situation. The growing dependency on LNG imports from around the world will lead to significantly higher supply costs but will also increase diversification as gas will originate from an increasing number of LNG exporting countries.     

Households’ willingness to pay for safeguarding security of natural gas supply in electricity generation

Security of energy supply is a major issue for all EU Member States due to Europe's increasing dependence on imported fossil-fuel sources and the continuous rise in energy demand. The latter is of particular importance in electricity sector given the continuously increasing use of gas for electricity generation. In order to properly tackle with the problem, concerted actions are required by the EU Member States in several levels, i.e. legislative, political, etc. Nevertheless, these actions will come at an additional cost paid by the society either through increased electricity bills or through public financing for energy security investments. Thus, such policies should be justified on the basis of cost-benefit analysis. Towards this direction, it may be necessary to take into account non-market costs and benefits, i.e. the value that consumers place on interruptions avoided. In order to explore households’ perceptions and willingness to pay for securing gas supply for electricity production, an empirical study was conducted by means of the contingent valuation method. The results indicate that consumers are willing to pay a premium on their electricity bills in order to internalize the external costs of electricity production, in terms of energy security, which are caused from imported fuels.     

Central Asian gas in Eurasian power game

Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, various gas pipeline projects have been proposed to diversify transit routes and export markets of the landlocked Central Asian states. To evaluate the pipeline project's impact on the players' bargaining power, I apply the cooperate game theory to a quantitative model of the Eurasian gas trade and quantify the bargaining power structure via the Shapley value. Due to ample production capacities in Central Asia, I observe little strategic interaction between the West and China. Thus, demand competition with China is not necessarily a disadvantage for the West, and the Turkmenistan–China pipeline does not affect the impact of the westbound projects aiming Europe and Turkey. For Turkmenistan, i.e., the main supplier in the region, a link via the Caspian Sea to Turkey is the most beneficial westbound option. Although the projects carrying gas from Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to Europe enjoy the European Commission's political support, they yield marginal benefits to the European consumers. Thanks to its transit position, Turkey collects a large share of the benefits in the East–West gas trade.     

Power sector scenarios for Thailand: An exploratory analysis 2002–2022

Power sector scenarios for Thailand are constructed in this paper to represent the range of opportunities and constraints associated with divergent set of technical and policy options. They include Business-As-Usual (BAU), No-New-Coal (NNC), and Green Futures (GF) scenarios over a 20-year period (2002–2022). The results from the BAU scenario show that fossil fuels will continue to dominate electricity generation in Thailand during the study period. Similar results are obtained for the NNC option, although the dependence shifts from coal and oil towards natural gas-based power generation. This may represent a better environmental pathway but an all out shift from coal to natural gas is likely to increase Thailand's dependence on imported fuel, making it more vulnerable to unstable global oil and gas prices. The GF scenario offers a more optimistic route that allows the country to confront its energy security dilemma whilst fulfilling its environmental commitments by giving renewable energy technologies a prominent place in the country's power generation mix. Over the study period, our result showed little difference between the three scenarios in terms of financing new generation plants despite an early misgiving about the viability of an ambitious renewable energy programme. This paper also goes beyond the financial evaluation of each scenario to provide a comparison of the scenarios in terms of their greenhouse gas emissions together with the comparative costs of emissions reductions. Indeed, if such externalities are taken into account to determine ‘viability’, the GF scenario represents an attractive way forward for the Thai power sector.     

Accounting for fuel price risk when comparing renewable to gas-fired generation: the role of forward natural gas prices

Unlike natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation (e.g., from wind, solar, and geothermal power) is largely immune to fuel price risk. If ratepayers are rational and value long-term price stability, then—contrary to common practice—any comparison of the levelized cost of renewable to gas-fired generation should be based on a hedged gas price input, rather than an uncertain gas price forecast. This paper compares natural gas prices that can be locked in through futures, swaps, and physical supply contracts to contemporaneous long-term forecasts of spot gas prices. We find that from 2000 to 2003, forward gas prices for terms of 2–10 years have been considerably higher than most contemporaneous long-term gas price forecasts. This difference is striking, and implies that comparisons between renewable and gas-fired generation based on these forecasts over this period have arguably yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation.     

Assessment of the natural gas potential for heat and power generation in the County of Östergötland in Sweden

The aim of this study is to investigate the potential use of natural gas for heat and power production for the municipality of Linköping, Norrköping and Finspång in the County of Östergötland, Sweden.     

Gazprom vs. other Russian gas producers: The evolution of the Russian gas sector

The non-Gazprom gas producers (NGPs) doubled their share of the Russian domestic gas market between 2000 and 2010 and have continued growing since then. For several years especially Novatek expanded. More recently, Rosneft has emerged as a key player, not least through its purchase of TNK-BP. This article begins with an overview of the companies in the Russian gas sector, their resource bases and capacities, and subsequently examines whether differences in field development costs and export market access may make it rational for Gazprom to continue ceding market share to the NGPs. With rising costs of Gazprom's queue of greenfield developments, any delays in Gazprom's investment program may be compensated through increased NGP production. The article argues that the NGPs are ready to fill the gap, may be allowed to do so and are already increasing their market share in an increasingly competitive market. The stage may now be set for a continued gradual transformation of the Russian gas market, in which the interests of Gazprom and the NGPs may be complementary or may be pitted against each other, but those of the Russian Federation are in any case likely to be better fulfilled than in the past.     

高温燃料电池/燃气轮机混合循环发电技术

高温燃料电池／燃气轮机混合循环系统以其效率高、排放低的特点,在未来分布式发电和集中式大规模发电中占有重要地位。本文首先简介了高温燃料电池和先进燃气轮机的结构特点及其分类,在此基础上阐述了高温燃料电池与先进燃气轮机混合系统的基本模式,然后对适用于分布式发电和集中式发电的几种典型混合循环系统的结构和相应的流程及特点进行了详细的描述,最后给出了高温燃料电池和燃气轮机混合循环发电系统中的一些主要代表性技术以及目前研究的进展、挑战和目标。     

闭式循环气轮机装置使用的无气体产生燃料

无气体产生燃料在AIP装置上的应用具有优势,如不会释放燃烧反应气体,不存在燃烧产物排放问题,不会形成排气尾迹。针对闭式循环气轮机装置使用的无气体产生燃料,提出了无气体产生燃料及其氧化剂选择和需满足的技术要求,给出了一些无气体产生燃料及其相应氧化剂的种类和性质,介绍了无气体产生燃料的燃烧方式和燃烧设备,描述了使用无气体产生燃料的闭式循环蒸汽轮机装置和燃气轮机装置的系统组成及工作原理,并对一些应用上问题进行了分析。