Forecasting the diffusion of wind power in Pakistan

About half of the Pakistan’s population has no access to electricity and per capita consumption is one of the lowest in the world. The country is facing severe energy crisis due to shortage of electricity and gas supply. About two-third of the total electricity is generated from fossil fuels. Pakistan heavily depends on imported energy due to limited indigenous reserves and production of oil. The production, transportation, transformation and consumption of fossil fuels also adversely affect the quality of the environment due to indiscriminate release of toxic substances. This shows that Pakistan must develop alternate, indigenous and environment friendly energy resources, like wind energy, to face these challenges. This paper presents the market penetration forecasts of wind power in Pakistan under different policy scenarios. The diffusion of wind power is forecasted using logistic model and analogous approach. The study concludes that about 42, 58 and 73% of the country’s total technical potential of wind power generation could be exploited by the year 2030 under SS, MS and OS scenarios respectively. The development and utilization of wind power would reduce the pressure on oil imports, protect the environment from pollution and improve the socio-economic conditions of the people of Pakistan.     

世界油页岩研究开发利用现状——并记2011年国内外三次油页岩会议

2011年国内外召开了3次大型油页岩科技会议.世界油页岩资源蕴藏量十分巨大,折算成页岩油约达4500× 108t,超过世界石油资源量.目前世界上油页岩干馏生产页岩油的国家有中国、爱沙尼亚和巴西.爱沙尼亚还在建设颗粒页岩干馏新工艺的大型工业装置.中国虽然油页岩预测资源量很大,但探明储量不多,近年来加强了地质勘探工作.中国还引进了颗粒页岩干馏的大型工业装置,并自主创新筹建颗粒页岩干馏的工业试验装置.中国近年来出版了多部油页岩专著,中国石油大学等高校和一些研究机构继续开展油页岩开发利用的研究.美国拥有世界上最丰富的油页岩探明储量,然而至今仍无页岩油的工业生产,但有很多公司和大学正在进行油页岩地下和地上干馏炼油的开发和基础研究.约旦、土耳其等发展中国家则加强了油页岩开发利用的研究,其政府制定了政策,加大了生产页岩油的国际合作.当前世界上利用油页岩燃烧产汽发电的国家有爱沙尼亚、中国、以色列和德国等,爱沙尼亚油页岩电站生产规模很大,总容量达3200MW,所发电量占其所需电力的94％,其他国家规模很小.     

世界油页岩开发利用现状及预测——并记2010年国内外两次油页岩会议

介绍了世界油页岩开发利用现状,并记2010年美国第30届国际油页岩会议及国内油页岩年会上的主要报告内容。重点介绍了中国、爱沙尼亚、巴西、美国、加拿大、德国、约旦和澳大利亚等15个国家的油页岩最新发展。当前,世界上油页岩干馏生产页岩油的国家有中国(55×104t/a)、爱沙尼亚(40×104t/a)和巴西(18×104t/a),爱沙尼亚还正建设颗粒页岩干馏新工艺的大型工业装置,中国则正引进颗粒页岩干馏的大型工业装置,并自主创新筹建粉末及颗粒页岩干馏的工业试验装置。美国至今仍无页岩油的工业生产,但现有约30家公司、研究所和大学在进行油页岩地下和地上干馏炼油的开发和基础研究。当前,世界上利用油页岩燃烧产汽发电的国家有爱沙尼亚、中国、以色列等,爱沙尼亚油页岩电站生产规模很大(所发电量占其所需电力的94%),其他国家规模较小。中国页岩油仍不断增产,并在引进和自主开发油页岩干馏生产页岩油的新工艺。由于中国当前每年进口大量原油,对外依存度超过50%,故页岩油的生产受到重视。国家发改委等制定有支持油页岩产业发展的政策和税收优惠的规定。中国预测的页岩油资源很丰富,但探明储量不够多,建议在"十二五"期间加强勘查,落实更多可采储量,才可能使页岩油生产量大幅增加。中国石油大学(北京)编写了油页岩专著的英文本,于2010年6月由中国石化出版社出版,面向全世界发行。     

The production of hydrogen fuel from renewable sources and its role in grid operations

Understanding the scale and nature of hydrogen's potential role in the development of low carbon energy systems requires an examination of the operation of the whole energy system, including heat, power, industrial and transport sectors, on an hour-by-hour basis. The Future Energy Scenario Assessment (FESA) software model used for this study is unique in providing a holistic, high resolution, functional analysis, which incorporates variations in supply resulting from weather-dependent renewable energy generators. The outputs of this model, arising from any given user-definable scenario, are year round supply and demand profiles that can be used to assess the market size and operational regime of energy technologies. FESA was used in this case to assess what - if anything - might be the role for hydrogen in a low carbon economy future for the UK.In this study, three UK energy supply pathways were considered, all of which reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050, and substantially reduce reliance on oil and gas while maintaining a stable electricity grid and meeting the energy needs of a modern economy. All use more nuclear power and renewable energy of all kinds than today's system. The first of these scenarios relies on substantial amounts of ‘clean coal’ in combination with intermittent renewable energy sources by year the 2050. The second uses twice as much intermittent renewable energy as the first and virtually no coal. The third uses 2.5 times as much nuclear power as the first and virtually no coal.All scenarios clearly indicate that the use of hydrogen in the transport sector is important in reducing distributed carbon emissions that cannot easily be mitigated by Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). In the first scenario, this hydrogen derives mainly from steam reformation of fossil fuels (principally coal), whereas in the second and third scenarios, hydrogen is made mainly by electrolysis using variable surpluses of low-carbon electricity. Hydrogen thereby fulfils a double facetted role of Demand Side Management (DSM) for the electricity grid and the provision of a ‘clean’ fuel, predominantly for the transport sector. When each of the scenarios was examined without the use of hydrogen as a transport fuel, substantially larger amounts of primary energy were required in the form of imported coal.The FESA model also indicates that the challenge of grid balancing is not a valid reason for limiting the amount of intermittent renewable energy generated. Engineering limitations, economic viability, local environmental considerations and conflicting uses of land and sea may limit the amount of renewable energy available, but there is no practical limit to the conversion of this energy into whatever is required, be it electricity, heat, motive power or chemical feedstocks.     

Technical-Economic Parameters of the New Oil Shale Mining—Chemical Complex in Northeast Estonia

The history of oil shale mining in Estonia has reached its century mark. Three oil shale branches have been formed and have been working on the basis of Estonian oil shale deposits: the mining industry (underground and surface extraction), the power industry (heat and electric energy generation), and the chemical industry (gas and synthetic oils). The authors attempted to summarize the experience of the activities of these branches and to make into a whole the results of their research developments in the past years, as well as to form a notion about perspectives of oil shale in Estonia. Variants of the mining-chemical oil shale complex production and trade patterns differed from used ones. Mining methods, thermal processing of oil shale, and solid, liquid, and gas waste recovery have been studied, analyzed, and worked out up to the present. Setting up a flexible trade structure within the framework of that complex is considered the main economic mechanism capable of balancing production costs of such a complex with its earnings, which could respond properly to any, even peak, fluctuations of the market for final products processed from oil shale. Data of the working “Estonia” oil shale mine were used as the basis of the analysis and practical conclusions. Information on the mine being projected in the region of Ojamaa in the northeast of Estonia was taken as the data of the worthwhile supplier. Oil shale processing chemical complex is considered in two structural alternatives: in technological chain with the “Estonia” mine (the first variant), and with the projected mine of a new technical level (the second variant).     

Power sector scenarios for Thailand: An exploratory analysis 2002–2022

Power sector scenarios for Thailand are constructed in this paper to represent the range of opportunities and constraints associated with divergent set of technical and policy options. They include Business-As-Usual (BAU), No-New-Coal (NNC), and Green Futures (GF) scenarios over a 20-year period (2002–2022). The results from the BAU scenario show that fossil fuels will continue to dominate electricity generation in Thailand during the study period. Similar results are obtained for the NNC option, although the dependence shifts from coal and oil towards natural gas-based power generation. This may represent a better environmental pathway but an all out shift from coal to natural gas is likely to increase Thailand's dependence on imported fuel, making it more vulnerable to unstable global oil and gas prices. The GF scenario offers a more optimistic route that allows the country to confront its energy security dilemma whilst fulfilling its environmental commitments by giving renewable energy technologies a prominent place in the country's power generation mix. Over the study period, our result showed little difference between the three scenarios in terms of financing new generation plants despite an early misgiving about the viability of an ambitious renewable energy programme. This paper also goes beyond the financial evaluation of each scenario to provide a comparison of the scenarios in terms of their greenhouse gas emissions together with the comparative costs of emissions reductions. Indeed, if such externalities are taken into account to determine ‘viability’, the GF scenario represents an attractive way forward for the Thai power sector.     

Renewable energy sources: Their global potential for the first-half of the 21st century at a global level: An integrated approach

The risk of human-induced climate change and the volatility of world oil markets make non-fossil fuel options important. This paper investigates the potential for wind, solar-PV and biomass (WSB) to deliver energy. The focus is on land opportunities and constraints and on production costs as a function of resource availability and depletion and of innovation dynamics. The context is provided by the IPCC SRES scenarios as simulated with the IMAGE 2.2 model. We explicitly consider several sources of uncertainty, aspects of the food vs. energy trade-off and the effects of interaction between the three options through their claims on land. We show that ‘potential production’ concepts are strongly dependent on the chosen land-use scenario—and should therefore be used with an indication of the underlying assumptions. Our results indicate a potential for liquid biofuels in the order of 75–300 EJ year⁻¹ and for electricity from WSB options at production costs below 10 ¢ kWh⁻¹ of 200–300 PWh year⁻¹. Theoretically, future electricity demand can be amply met from WSB sources in most regions by 2050 below 10 ¢ kWh⁻¹, but major uncertainties are the degree to which land is actually available and the rate and extent at which specific investment costs can be reduced. In some regions, competition for land among the three WSB options may significantly reduce the total potential as estimated from simple addition—which is another source of uncertainty.     

Worldwide cheap and heavy oil productions: A long-term energy model

Crude oil, natural gas liquids, heavy oils, deepwater oils, and polar oils are non-renewable energy resources with increasing extraction costs. Two major definitions emerge: regular or ‘cheap’ oil and non-conventional or ‘heavy’ oil. Peaking time in conventional oil production has been a recent focus of debate. For two decades, non-conventional oils have been mixed with regular crude oil. Peaking time estimation and the rate at which production may be expected to decline, following the peak, are more difficult to determine. We propose a two-wave model for world oil production pattern and forecasting, based on the diffusion of innovation theories: a sequential multi-Bass model. Historical well-known shocks are confirmed, and new peaking times for crude oil and mixed oil are determined with corresponding depletion rates. In the final section, possible ties between the dynamics of oil extraction and refining capacities are discussed as a predictive symptom of an imminent mixed oil peak in 2016.     

Environmental assessment of different solar driven advanced oxidation processes

In this work a comparative environmental assessment of different advanced oxidation processes (AOP’s) is performed. Two energy scenarios have been considered according to the energy source used: solar energy and electricity (UVA lamp). A life cycle assessment (LCA) is carried out in order to quantify the environmental impacts of the AOP’s. The treatments considered are heterogenous photocatalysis, photo-Fenton reactions, the coupling of heterogeneous photocatalysis and photo-Fenton, and heterogeneous photocatalysis in combination with hydrogen peroxide. These AOP’s are applied to the treatment of kraft mill bleaching wastewaters. The system under study includes the production of the catalysts, reagents as well as the production of electricity; eight environmental impact categories are assessed for each AOP: global warming, ozone depletion, aquatic eutrophication, acidification, human toxicity, freshwater aquatic toxicity, photochemical ozone formation, and abiotic resource depletion. the results of the LCA show that the environmental impact of AOP’s is caused mainly by the amount of electricity consumed, whereas the impact of producing the reagents and catalysts is comparatively low. For this reason, the solar energy scenario reduces the impact more than 90% for almost all AOP’s and impact categories. None of the solar driven AOP’s can be identified as the best in all impact categories, but heterogenous photocatalysis and photo-Fenton reactions obtain better results than the remaining treatments, since these treatments do not consume simultaneously both TiO₂ and H₂O₂, the chemicals with highest environmental burdens in the system.     

Assessing the performance and benefits of customer distributed generation developers under uncertainties

In this paper, the performance of customer-owned distributed generation (DG) units is quantified from different perspectives through an uncertainty study. A Monte Carlo-based method is applied to assess the stochastic operation of the customer-owned DG units in the power distribution system. Several cases are studied to analyze the impact on system performance of using such generators, with the emphasis on benefits. The results of the studied cases show that proper operation of customer-owned DG units placed close to significant consumption centers offers several benefits which lead to significant energy savings and improvement in the performance indices while maintaining the cost-effectiveness. Furthermore, based on the energy demand, different electricity price scenarios considering a cost sensitivity analysis are performed to indicate how the variations in electricity price influence each scenario’s feasibility. It is concluded that implementation of a proper energy purchase policy, and allocating the benefits of DG units to the owners, improves the economic performance of their investments and encourages customer DG developers to connect DG to the distribution network.     

Integrated appraisal of a Solar Hot Water system

An ‘integrated appraisal’ of a solar hot water (SHW) system in the UK residential sector was carried out to assess its overall energetic, environmental and economic performance. The energy analysis indicates that when displacing a gas boiler, oil boiler, or electrical immersion heater, the SHW system would provide a net energy benefit for the majority of its estimated 25 year lifetime, thus enhancing energy security by reducing the use of, and dependence upon, conventional energy resources (mainly fossil fuels). A life cycle assessment was carried out to determine a range of environmental implications of installing and using the SHW system. It was shown that the use of aluminium has the greatest impact within the production of the system. During its use, the SHW provides the largest environmental externality benefits when displacing electricity. The economic assessment indicates that the SHW system is currently uncompetitive given the negative net present values of the various scenarios assessed. This outcome included the internalisation of the social costs of carbon. There are, however, future prospects for reduced capital costs that may significantly improve the economic performance of the system.     

世界油页岩开发利用动态——记美国第27届国际油页岩会议

介绍了2007年10月由美国科罗拉多矿业学院召开的第27届国际油页岩会议的概况,重点介绍了美国、中国、爱沙尼亚、俄罗斯、巴西、约旦等国家的油页岩的最新发展动态。当前世界上生产页岩油的国家有爱沙尼亚（35×10^4t／a）、中国（33×10^4t／a）、巴西（18×10^4t／a）,爱沙尼亚和中国都有增产页岩油的计划。美国能源部等机构提出了发展页岩油生产的中长期设想,建议到2035年年产页岩油1．25×10^4t。当前世界上利用油页岩燃烧产汽发电的国家有爱沙尼亚、中国、德国和以色列,爱沙尼亚电站规模很大,其他国家规模较小。     

世界油页岩综述

世界油页岩资源很丰富,其探明储量换算成页岩油,远大于世界原油的探明储量。美国油页岩储量居世界首位,其次则为俄罗斯、扎伊尔、巴西、加拿大、约旦、澳大利亚和中国。油页岩干馏制取页岩油始于19世纪上半叶的西欧国家,而后由于廉价原油的开采而衰落,又由于世界石油危机而兴起；如今中国、爱沙尼亚和巴西拥有页岩油的工业生产(中国有抚顺式炉、爱沙尼亚有Galoter和Kiviter炉、巴西有Petrosix炉)。此外,爱沙尼亚、德国、中国和以色列则拥有油页岩燃烧产蒸汽发电的工业装置。当前,由于世界原油价格上涨,页岩油的生产在不少国家己有利可图,中国、爱沙尼亚等国家正扩建、新建页岩油工厂,美国也有对其丰富的油页岩资源进行加工利用的意向。     

Households’ willingness to pay for safeguarding security of natural gas supply in electricity generation

Security of energy supply is a major issue for all EU Member States due to Europe's increasing dependence on imported fossil-fuel sources and the continuous rise in energy demand. The latter is of particular importance in electricity sector given the continuously increasing use of gas for electricity generation. In order to properly tackle with the problem, concerted actions are required by the EU Member States in several levels, i.e. legislative, political, etc. Nevertheless, these actions will come at an additional cost paid by the society either through increased electricity bills or through public financing for energy security investments. Thus, such policies should be justified on the basis of cost-benefit analysis. Towards this direction, it may be necessary to take into account non-market costs and benefits, i.e. the value that consumers place on interruptions avoided. In order to explore households’ perceptions and willingness to pay for securing gas supply for electricity production, an empirical study was conducted by means of the contingent valuation method. The results indicate that consumers are willing to pay a premium on their electricity bills in order to internalize the external costs of electricity production, in terms of energy security, which are caused from imported fuels.     

Cost and emissions impacts of plug-in hybrid vehicles on the Ohio power system

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have been promoted as a potential technology that can reduce vehicles’ fuel consumption, decreasing transportation-related emissions and dependence on imported oil. The net emission and cost impacts of PHEV use are intimately connected with the electricity generator mix used for PHEV charging, which will in turn depend on when during the day PHEVs are recharged. This paper analyzes the effects of a PHEV fleet in the state of Ohio. The analysis considers two different charging scenarios—a controlled and an uncontrolled scenario—which offer the grid operator different levels of control over the timing of PHEV charging. The analysis shows that PHEV use could result in major reductions in gasoline consumption of close to 70% per vehicle compared to a conventional vehicle (CV) under both charging scenarios. Moreover, despite the high penetrations of coal in the Ohio power system, net CO₂ emissions from a PHEV could be up to 24% lower than that of a CV in the uncontrolled case, however, CO₂ and NO_x emissions would increase in both scenarios.     

Steps toward the hydrogen economy

The hydrogen economy is defined as the industrial system in which one of the universal energy carriers is hydrogen (the other is electricity) and hydrogen is oxidized to water that may be reused by applying an external energy source for dissociation of water into its component elements hydrogen and oxygen. There are three different primary energy-supply system classes which may be used to implement the hydrogen economy, namely, fossil fuels (coal, petroleum, natural gas, and as yet largely unused supplies such as shale oil, oil from tar sands, natural gas from geo-pressured locations, etc.), nuclear reactors including fission reactors and breeders or fusion nuclear reactors over the very long term, and renewable energy sources (including hydroelectric power systems, wind-energy systems, ocean thermal energy conversion systems, geothermal resources, and a host of direct solar energy-conversion systems including biomass production, photovoltaic energy conversion, solar thermal systems, etc.). Examination of present costs of hydrogen production by any of these means shows that the hydrogen economy favored by people searching for a non-polluting gaseous or liquid energy carrier will not be developed without new discoveries or innovations. Hydrogen may become an important market entry in a world with most of the electricity generated in nuclear fission or breeder reactors when high-temperature waste heat is used to dissociate water in chemical cycles or new inventions and innovations lead to low-cost hydrogen production by applying as yet uneconomical renewable solar techniques that are suitable for large-scale production such as direct water photolysis with suitably tailored band gaps on semiconductors or low-cost electricity supplies generated on ocean-based platforms using temperature differences in the tropical seas.     

Changes in fuel input of electricity sector in Hong Kong since 1982 and their implications

Since 1982, the electricity sector in Hong Kong, which accounts for more than half of the total energy consumption, has undergone two major changes in terms of the type of fuels used for power generation. In 1982, it switched from oil to coal generation. In 1994, nuclear power was introduced; and in 1996, natural gas was imported for power generation. Given the dominance of electricity in the energy economy, these changes led to drastic modifications in the fuel mix and the geographical sources of energy supply for Hong Kong. This study analyses the rationale behind the above changes in fuel selection, the impact on the fuel mix and the geographical sources of energy supply, the security of energy supply, and the cost of power.     

Sustainable development of the Belgrade energy system

Cities are the most important energy consumers of any country in all energy vector components. Nowadays, Belgrade as a cultural, educational, scientific, administrative, political, and business center of the region with its own structure of production, transportation, services, and urban system, represents significant consumer of different energy forms. Only useful and final energy is delivered to energy consuming sectors of a city. Simulation model MAED was used in this paper to estimate energy demand in city for a long time period. On the basis of energy demand forecast for three major ‘energy consumers’ (sectors of household/service, industry, and transportation) until 2020, the sustainable development ‘scenarios’ of Belgrade energy system are developed (2005–2010, 2010–2015, 2015–2020). For each ‘scenario’, the energy systems of primary resources are determined so to satisfy the predicted differences in energy consumption for the mentioned time intervals until 2020. In this case different ‘scenarios’ are evaluated. The evaluation of ‘scenarios’ sustainability is obtained by method of multi-criteria analysis. Using energy indices for sustainable development, the following indices are taken into consideration for the assessment of scenario sustainability: economical, social, and environmental. The obtained results can be used by experts in decision-making process.     

世界油页岩开发利用的近况——并记2012年国外两次油页岩国际会议

2012年国际油价在90～100美元/bbl之间波动,在这种情况下,页岩油的生产在经济上仍有利可图.2012年国外召开了两次大型油页岩国际科技会议.世界油页岩资源蕴藏量折算成页岩油高达4.8× 101bbl,其中美国占到了77％.估计中国页岩油资源约有0.35×1012bbl,但探明储量不够,应加强勘查,落实更多可采储量.中国正在引进和自主开发大处理量的油页岩干馏生产页岩油的新工艺.当前世界页岩油年产量约156×105,其中中国约70× 104t,爱沙尼亚约66× 104t,巴西约20× 104t.世界油页岩电站发电能力以爱沙尼亚最大,容量达2300MW以上,其他国家规模很小.爱沙尼亚今后将主要采用油页岩干馏新技术增产页岩油.美国至今仍无油页岩干馏炼油的工业化生产,但有多家公司、科研机构和大学在进行油页岩地下和地上干馏炼油的现场开发和基础研究.德国、法国、加拿大、澳大利亚等发达国家的一些公司关注页岩油生产,并参与或开发油页岩干馏新工艺.约旦、土耳其、印度等发展中国家以及以色列加强了油页岩资源的勘查或国际合作,开展了油页岩加工利用的可行性研究.     

Hybrid systems to address seasonal mismatches between electricity production and demand in nuclear renewable electrical grids

A strategy to enable zero-carbon variable electricity production with full utilization of renewable and nuclear energy sources has been developed. Wind and solar systems send electricity to the grid. Nuclear plants operate at full capacity with variable steam to turbines to match electricity demand with production (renewables and nuclear). Excess steam at times of low electricity prices and electricity demand go to hybrid fuel production and storage systems. The characteristic of these hybrid technologies is that the economic penalties for variable nuclear steam inputs are small. Three hybrid systems were identified that could be deployed at the required scale. The first option is the gigawatt-year hourly-to-seasonal heat storage system where excess steam from the nuclear plant is used to heat rock a kilometer underground to create an artificial geothermal heat source. The heat source produces electricity on demand using geothermal technology. The second option uses steam from the nuclear plant and electricity from the grid with high-temperature electrolysis (HTR) cells to produce hydrogen and oxygen. Hydrogen is primarily for industrial applications; however, the HTE can be operated in reverse using hydrogen for peak electricity production. The third option uses variable steam and electricity for shale oil production.