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1.
In this article we develop and then implement a decomposition model of Canada's electricity sector in order to assess multiple factors impacting on trends in greenhouse gas emissions from the sector, with a focus on the impact of climate and energy policy on emissions for the time period spanning from 1990 to 2008. The analysis shows that during these years, the primary factors driving changes in emissions included changes in electricity demand, changes in the generation mix of electricity, and weather, but that government policy and programs had only minor impacts on emissions. Although having relatively lesser impacts compared to the aforementioned factors, the most significant policy related factors included efforts to increase renewables in the generation mix through programs such as renewable portfolio standards and incentives for wind generators.  相似文献   

2.
The present work concerns a systematic investigation of power sector portfolios through discrete scenarios of electricity and CO2 allowance prices. The analysis is performed for different prices, from regulated to completely deregulated markets, thus representing different electricity market policies. The modelling approach is based on a stochastic programming algorithm without recourse, used for the optimisation of power sector economics under multiple uncertainties. A sequential quadratic programming routine is applied for the entire investigation period whilst the time-dependent objective function is subject to various social and production constraints, usually confronted in power sectors. The analysis indicated the optimal capacity additions that should be annually ordered from each competitive technology in order to substantially improve both the economy and the sustainability of the system. It is confirmed that higher electricity prices lead to higher financial yields of power production, irrespective of the CO2 allowance price level. Moreover, by following the proposed licensing planning, a medium-term reduction of CO2 emissions per MW h by 30% might be possible. Interestingly, the combination of electricity prices subsidisation with high CO2 allowance prices may provide favourable conditions for investors willing to engage on renewable energy markets.  相似文献   

3.
This paper identifies the main features of CO2 emission from fossil energy combustion in China. Then it estimates China's future energy requirements and projects its CO2 emission from 2010 to 2020 based on the scenario analysis approach. China's rate of carbon productivity growth is estimated to be 5.4% in the period 2005–2020, while the CO2 intensity of GDP will reduce by about 50% but CO2 emission in 2020 will still be about 40% higher than prevailing in 2005 because of rapid growth of GDP. This estimation is based on the assumption that China will implement a sustainable development strategy in consideration of climate change issues. The main objectives of the strategy are to implement an “energy conservation first” strategy, to develop renewable energy and advanced nuclear technology actively, to readjust the country's economic structure, and to formulate and legislate laws and regulations, and to build institutions for energy conservation and development of renewable energy. It concludes that international measures to mitigate CO2 emission will limit world fossil fuel consumption. China is not placed to replicate the modernization model adopted by developed countries and has to coordinate economic development and carbon dioxide emission control while still in the process of industrialization and modernization. China has to evolve a low carbon industrialization model. This is the key to the success of sustainable development initiatives in China.  相似文献   

4.
Electricity consumption in the industrial sector experienced a dramatic increase between 1998 and 2007, accounting for approximately 75% of China’s total electricity consumption. This study analyzes the potential factors influencing the growth of electricity consumption in China’s industrial sector over the past decade using a logarithmic mean Divisia index I decomposition method. Results show that activity effect and shift effect (caused by the change in the electricity’s share of industrial energy use) are the major factors responsible for the rise in electricity consumption between 1998 and 2007. It is found that structural change also contributed to the increase in electricity consumption, it had only a small effect. In contrast, the technological effect is responsible for a decrease in electricity consumption during this period. The influences of technological effects and shift effects followed approximately an inverse-U-shaped and U-shaped curve, respectively. Furthermore, the results show that the main contributors to incremental electricity consumption among industrial subsectors were manufacturing of raw chemical material and products, manufacturing of non-metal mineral products, smelting and pressing of ferrous and non-ferrous metals, and production and supply of electric power and heat power. These sectors should take priority for industrial restructuring in order to implement policies for energy and electricity savings.  相似文献   

5.
6.
The Clean Development Mechanism-Executive Board (CDM-EB) has proposed a consolidated methodology to estimate baseline emission factor (EF) for renewable-energy-based grid-connected power projects. The methodology is based on Combined Margin approach, estimated as weighted average of operating margin (OM), and build margin emissions factors. One of the options suggested for estimating OM EF, simple adjusted operating margin (SAOM), takes into account the possibility that existing low-cost/must-run (LCMR) generation sources in a power system may be affected by the introduction of new generation sources in systems. SAOM method is prescribed for a power system where the power generation from LCMR sources is 50% or more of the total system generation. The paper demonstrates that a better decision criterion for use of SAOM is comparison of average yearly load of LCMR sources, calculated as total LCMR generation divided by 8760, with the minimum system load. Further, the CDM-EB methodology recommends use of SAOM method over average operating margin (AOM) method. The paper demonstrates that SAOM method results in a higher estimate of baseline EF as compared to the AOM method and, therefore, the recommendation is contrary to conservative principle stressed by CDM-EB in developing baselines.  相似文献   

7.
In this study, electricity generation associated CO2 emissions and fuel-specific CO2 emission factors are calculated based on the IPCC methodology using the data of fossil-fueled power plants that ran between 2001 and 2008 in Turkey. The estimated CO2 emissions from fossil-fueled power plants between 2009 and 2019 are also calculated using the fuel-specific CO2 emission factors and data on the projected generation capacity of the power plants that are planned to be built during this period. Given that the total electricity supply (planned+existing) will not be sufficient to provide the estimated demand between 2011 and 2019, four scenarios based on using different fuel mixtures are developed to overcome this deficiency. The results from these scenarios show that a significant decrease in the amount of CO2 emissions from electricity generation can be achieved if the share of the fossil-fueled power plants is lowered. The Renewable Energy Scenario is found to result in the lowest CO2 emissions between 2009 and 2019. The associated CO2 emissions calculated based on this scenario are approximately 192 million tons lower than that of the Business As Usual Scenario for the estimation period.  相似文献   

8.
Pressure is mounting in large Non-Annex 1 countries like Brazil, China, and India to accept binding commitments to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions in the second, post-2012, commitment period. In the case of Brazil, pressure is higher for the country to commit itself to reduce its emissions from land use changes but, because of the country’s recent high economic growth rates, very soon, this pressure will also turn to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions from electricity production and use in the various sectors of the economy. This paper summarizes the methodological approach, and the results, of a study aimed at assessing the potential for electricity conservation and carbon dioxide emissions reductions in the Brazilian household sector. The study splits the household sector into 20 subsectors, considering five different geographical regions and four household electricity consumption levels (a proxy for different household income levels). Technical, economic, and market potentials are determined for electricity conservation in these 20 subsectors for the period 2005–2030, and results are also translated into carbon dioxide emission reductions using the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) combined margin (build margin plus operating margin) approach for determining the emission’s factor for the power grids. Results show significant electricity and carbon dioxide reduction potentials at negative costs for both household final consumers (market potential) and the economy as a whole (economic potential) in the residential sector of Brazil.
Glaucio V. R. FariaEmail:
  相似文献   

9.
Emissions in the process utilization produce adverse effects on the environment that influence human health, organism growth, climatic changes and so on. The Kyoto protocol, produced by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change (UNFCC) in December 1997, prescribed a legally binding greenhouse gas emission target about 5% below their 1990 level. About 160 countries including Malaysia now adopt this protocol. Electricity generation is one of the main contributors to emissions in the country. In order to calculate the potential emissions produced by this activity, the type of fuel use should be identified. Malaysia hopes to gradually change fuel use from 70% gas, 15% coal, 10% hydro, and 5% petroleum in the year 2000 to 40% gas, 30% hydro, 29% coal, and only 1% petroleum by the year 2020. The changes in fuel type have changed the pattern of emission production. This study attempts to predict the pattern of emissions from 2002 to 2020 due to the changes in fuel use. The calculation is based on emissions for unit electricity generated and the percentages of fuel use for electricity generation. The study found that the electricity generation company has produced huge emissions from their power plants in this country.  相似文献   

10.
A model of carbon dioxide emissions of the USA is presented. The model consists of population, income per capita, economic structure, final and primary energy intensity per sector, primary fuel mix, and emission coefficients. The model is simple enough to be calibrated to observations since 1850. The model is used to project emissions until 2100. Best-guess carbon dioxide emissions are in the middle of the IPCC SRES scenarios, but incomes and energy intensities are on the high side, while carbon intensities are on the low side. The confidence interval suggests that the SRES scenarios do not span the range of non-implausible futures. Although the model can be calibrated to reflect structural changes in the economy, it cannot anticipate such changes. The data poorly constrain crucial scenario elements, particularly energy prices. This suggests that the range of future emissions is wider still.  相似文献   

11.
Alkadienes are formed during the decomposition of alkanes and play a key role in the formation of aromatics due to their degree of unsaturation. The experiments in this paper examined the decomposition and hydrocarbon growth mechanisms of a wide range of hexadiene isomers in soot-forming nonpremixed flames. Specifically, C3 to C12 hydrocarbon concentrations were measured on the centerlines of atmospheric-pressure methane/air coflowing nonpremixed flames doped with 2000 ppm of 1,3-, 1,4-, 1,5-, and 2,4-hexadiene and 2-methyl-1,3-, 3-methyl-1,3-, 2-methyl-1,4-, 3-methyl-1,4-pentadiene, and 2,3-dimethyl-1,3-butadiene. The hexadiene decomposition rates and hydrocarbon product concentrations showed that the primary decomposition mechanism was unimolecular fission of CC single bonds, whose fission produced allyl and other resonantly stabilized products. The one isomer that does not contain any of these bonds, 2,4-hexadiene, isomerized by a six-center mechanism to 1,3-hexadiene. These decomposition pathways differ from those that have been observed previously for propadiene and 1,3-butadiene, and these differences affect aromatic hydrocarbon formation. 1,5-Hexadiene and 2,3-dimethyl-1,3-butadiene produced significantly more C3H4 and C4H4 than the other isomers, but less benzene, which suggests that benzene formation pathways other than the conventional C3 + C3 and C4 + C2 pathways were important in most of the hexadiene-doped flames. The most likely additional mechanism is cyclization of highly unsaturated C5 decomposition products, followed by methyl addition to cyclopentadienyl radicals.  相似文献   

12.
We examine the challenges to China's transition to a low carbon electricity system, in which renewable energy would play a significant role. China's electricity system currently lacks the flexibility in planning, operations, and pricing to respond to conflicting pressures from demand growth, rising costs, and environmental mandates in a way that simultaneously maintains reliability, decarbonizes the system, and keeps prices within acceptable bounds. Greater flexibility crucially requires the ability to more systematically and transparently manage and allocate costs. This will require re-orientating sector institutions still rooted in central planning, and strengthening independent regulation. Some of the necessary changes require fundamental political and legal reforms beyond the scope of energy policy. However, the system's flexibility can still be increased through the development of traditional planning and regulatory tools and approaches, such as an avoided cost basis for energy efficiency investments, more integrated planning to improve the coordination of generation, transmission, and demand-side investments, and a transparent ratemaking process. The judicious application of OECD electricity sector experience and skills can support these developments.  相似文献   

13.
Urban centers are the major consumers of energy, which is a major source of air pollution. Therefore, an insight into energy consumption and quantification of emissions from urban areas are extremely important for identifying impacts and finding solution to air pollution in urban centers. This paper applies the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system for modeling the total energy consumption and associated emissions from the household sector of Delhi. Energy consumption under different sets of policy and technology options are analyzed for a time span of 2001–2021 and emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), methane (CH4), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), nitrogen oxides (NOx), nitrous oxide (N2O), total suspended particulates (TSP) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) are estimated. Different scenarios are generated to examine the level of pollution reduction achievable by application of various options. The business as usual (BAU) scenario is developed considering the time series trends of energy use in Delhi households. The fuel substitution (FS) scenario analyzes policies having potential to impact fuel switching and their implications towards reducing emissions. The energy conservation (EC) scenario focuses on efficiency improvement technologies and policies for energy-intensity reduction. An integrated (INT) scenario is also generated to assess the cumulative impact of the two alternate scenarios on energy consumption and direct emissions from household sectors of Delhi. Maximum reduction in energy consumption in households of Delhi is observed in the EC scenario, whereas, the FS scenario seems to be a viable option if the emission loadings are to be reduced.  相似文献   

14.
Renewable electricity is pivotal to the medium and long-term reduction of Australia’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, if deep cuts in them are eventually implemented. This paper examines the effectiveness of the principal existing policies that could potentially promote the expansion of renewable electricity (RElec) in Australia: the expanded Renewable Energy Target (RET); the proposed emissions trading scheme (ETS); and the state and territory-based feed-in tariffs. We find the effectiveness of RET is severely eroded by the inclusion of solar and heat pump hot water systems; by the inclusion of ‘phantom’ tradable certificates; and by high electricity consumption growth. We also find that the ETS will not produce a high enough carbon price to assist most RElec technologies before 2020; and that most of the feed-in tariffs exclude large-scale RElec and will give little assistance to small-scale RElec because they are mostly net tariffs. Unless there is a major revision of its RElec policy mechanisms, Australia will fail to reach its renewable electricity target and in particular will fail to build up its solar generation capacity which could be a major source of future deep cuts in the country’s electricity generation emissions.  相似文献   

15.
The economic impacts on developing regions following a global cap and trade system for carbon dioxide are assessed through the use of an energy-economy systems model. Both an equal per capita allocation and a contraction and convergence allocation with convergence of the per capita emissions by 2050 are shown to offer economic incentive for Africa, India and probably also Latin America to accept binding emissions commitments under a 450 ppm carbon dioxide stabilization scenario. The gain for Latin America is mainly a result of increased export revenues from sales of bio-fuels as a result of the climate policy. It is, on the other hand, unlikely that these allocation approaches would offer an economic incentive for China to join the regime because of its high economic growth, present higher per capita emissions than India and Africa, and more costly mitigation options than Latin America. A more stringent allocation for developing countries such as contraction with convergence of the per capita emissions by the end of this century is estimated to generate reduced net gains or increased net losses for the developing regions (though Africa is still expected to gain).  相似文献   

16.
Differential electricity pricing was promulgated by China's central government to guide the development of high energy-consuming industries, which are significant for energy conservation. This paper examines the twists and turns of the policy implementation at the provincial level, and seeks to elucidate the difficulties in its implementation. Local governments, concerned that following the central directives would hurt local interests, have tried to deviate from the central orders while the central revises the policy from time to time to ensure local compliance. Three difficulties are analyzed: (1) the current relations between the central and local energy regulatory institutions make these local institutions difficult to perform their duties, and affect incentives for local governments to respond to central directives; (2) financial reform puts a great burden on local governments to raise revenues to cover expenditures, making local governments focus mainly on economic development rather than serving merely as political agents of the central government; (3) the aggressive attitude of local governments in pursuing GDP growth is not necessarily driven by the central government, but by pressure from competition among localities and the need to win local support. Solving these difficulties is important for making national energy conservation polices effective and efficient.  相似文献   

17.
To achieve the stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere, the international community will need to intensify its long-term efforts. Many EU countries have released national long-term scenarios toward 2050, and their ambitious targets for CO2 emission reduction are aiming at a decrease of more than 50% of today's emission. In April 2004, Japan began a research project on its long-term climate policy. This paper discusses the long-term scenarios in other countries and the medium-term scenarios in Japan to support the development of a Japan's long-term climate stabilization scenario. In this study, CO2 emission is decomposed with an extended Kaya identity (indexes: CO2 capture and storage, carbon intensity, energy efficiency, energy intensity, economic activity) and a Reduction Balance Table is developed.  相似文献   

18.
To improve the reliability of sectoral mitigation potential and cost analysis, this paper made an in-depth exploration into China’s electricity sector’s thermal efficiency and inner structure. It is found that unlike what many literatures portray, China is actually among the world’s leaders in coal-fired power plants’ generating efficiencies; besides, although there are still numerous small and inefficient generating units in the current generation fleet, many of them are in fact playing important roles in supporting local economic development, meeting peak load needs, balancing heat and electricity supply and providing job opportunities to the local economy, therefore their existence does not necessarily mean low-cost mitigation potential. Given the efficiency and structural characteristics of China’s electricity sector, it is pointed out that some other mitigation options, such as demand side management, IGCC and renewable energy as well as the break-through of CCS technology may play an even more important role in emission reduction. Considering the significant lock-in effects in electricity sector, it is warned that China, if continues putting majority investment in large and advanced coal-fired generating units, will face another round of chasing-after for the new and advanced renewable generation technologies. Therefore China should put more efforts in renewable generation technologies now.  相似文献   

19.
Study of low-carbon and pollution renewable alternatives for China revealed that concentrating solar thermal (CST) electric power generation was underemphasized in China's renewable energy plan. The analysis shows the competitive viability of CST: (1) China has the key prerequisites to make CST power generation economical including high-quality insolation and appropriate land, (2) CST's proven history, scale, and dispatchability makes it a good utility-scale power option, especially in the economically underdeveloped Western regions, (3) while CST power is currently more expensive than coal-fired electricity on a nominal basis, when costs of externalities are accounted for, CST, at 11.4 US cents/kWh, can become 57% cheaper than scrubbed coal and 29% cheaper than nuclear power, (4) CST power continues dropping in cost due to economies of scale and technological improvements and can potentially realize a levelized electricity cost of around 4 cents/kWh within ten years, (5) it would significantly rise in competitiveness if and when China completes the extensive smart grid for connecting its solar-abundant western regions with the high-demand eastern regions, (6) CST has the potential to positively impact Western China's economy, but proper policy and deal structure must be in place to ensure that the local community shares the benefit.  相似文献   

20.
This paper discusses policy instruments for promoting the market penetration of clean coal technologies (CCTs) into China's electricity sector and the evaluation of corresponding effects. Based on the reality that coal will remain the predominant fuel to generate electricity and conventional pulverized coal boiler power plants have serious impacts on environment degradation, development of clean coal technologies could be one alternative to meet China's fast growing demand of electricity as well as protect the already fragile environment. A multi-period market equilibrium model is applied and an electricity model of China is established to forecast changes in the electricity system up to 2030s. Three policy instruments: SO2 emission charge, CO2 emission charge and implementing subsidies are considered in this research. The results show that all instruments cause a significant shift in China's electricity structure, promote CCTs’ competitiveness and lead China to gain great benefit in both resource saving and environment improvement. Since resource security and environment degradation are becoming primary concerns in China, policies that could help to gain generations’ market share of advanced coal-based technologies such as CCTs’ is suitable for the current situation of China's electricity sector.  相似文献   

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