Bi-lateral CO2 emissions embodied in Australia–China trade

This paper quantifies the CO₂ emissions embodied in bi-lateral trade between Australia and China using a sectoral input–output model. The results revealed: (1) that China performs lower than Australia in clean technology in the primary, manufacturing, energy sectors due to their overuse of coal and inefficient sectoral production processes, and (2) that China had a 30.94 Mt surplus of bi-lateral CO₂ emissions in 2010–2011 and (3) overall global emissions were reduced by 20.19 Mt through Australia–China trade in 2010–2011. The result indicates that the greater the energy efficient a country among the trading partners the lower will be the overall global CO₂ emissions. Global emissions decreased mainly because China consumed Australian primary products rather than producing them. Australia is an energy efficient producer of primary products relative to China. The bilateral trade compositions and trade volume played an important role in lowering global emissions and therefore one can view proposed China Australia Free trade Agreement positively in reducing global emissions. However, for the sustainable development, China should strengthen clean energy use and both countries should adopt measures to create an emission trading scheme in order to avoid protectionism in the form of future border price adjustments.     

Impact of inter-sectoral trade on national and global CO2 emissions: An empirical analysis of China and US

This paper attempts to discuss the CO₂ emissions embodied in Sino-US international trade using a sector approach. Based on an input–output model established in this study, we quantify the impact of Sino-US international trade on national and global CO₂ emissions. Our initial findings reveal that: In 2005, the US reduced 190.13 Mt CO₂ emissions through the consumption of imported goods from China, while increasing global CO₂ emissions by about 515.25 Mt. Similarly, China reduced 178.62 Mt CO₂ emissions through the consumption of US goods, while reducing global CO₂ emissions by 129.93 Mt. Sino-US international trade increased global CO₂ emissions by 385.32 Mt as a whole, of which the Chemical, Fabricated Metal Products, Non-metallic Mineral Products and Transportation Equipment sectors contributed an 86.71% share. Therefore, we suggest that accelerating the adjustment of China’s trade structure and export of US advanced technologies and experience related to clean production and energy efficiency to China as the way to reduce the negative impact of Sino-US trade on national and global CO₂ emissions. This behavior should take into account the processing and manufacturing industries as a priority, especially the Chemical, Fabricated Metal Products, Non-metallic Mineral Products and Transportation Equipment sectors.     

Global overview for energy use of the world economy: Household-consumption-based accounting based on the world input-output database (WIOD)

Globalization has integrated nations into a world economy. Based on the world input-output database (WIOD), this paper explored the energy use of the world economy under a household-consumption-based MRIO (multi-region input-output) accounting scheme. Pertaining to normative economics, the household-consumption-based MRIO accounting scheme corresponds to the value judgement of household consumption being the ultimate driver of the economy, which complements existing accounting methods based on different viewpoints. The energy use associated with the internationally traded products is calculated to be around one-fifth of the global total energy consumption. For China as the largest exporter and also the biggest deficit economy in terms of energy use, its trade imbalance is nearly the summation of that of the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan and Germany. Energy self-sufficiency rates by supply and by demand are respectively proposed. While the United States economy as the largest importer maintains the majority of the energy welfare denoted by the onsite energy use at home, China exports large quantities of energy use abroad. For economies like Germany, South Korea and Taiwan, they could be regarded as hubs that export a considerable amount of energy use abroad and absorb massive energy use from outside simultaneously. For sustainable use of energy resources, economies are suggested to carefully identify their roles in the global trading network of energy use.     

Environmental and economic effects of post-Kyoto carbon regimes: Results of simulations with the global model GINFORS

Using the extensive and disaggregated global GINFORS model, consequences of different possible post-Kyoto regimes on the German and European economy and other major economies in the medium run until 2020 are depicted. The approach is very extensive and detailed in comparison to already existing analyses: this holds for the number of explicitly modelled countries (50 and 2 regions) and 41 economic sectors, input–output tables, the bilateral trade flows, the detailed coverage of behavioural parameters, the coverage of energy balances and CO₂ emissions as well as for the number and precise economic-political design of simulation runs.     

Embodied energy and intensity in China’s (normal and processing) exports and their driving forces, 2005-2015

International trade has important impacts on a country’s energy consumption. This paper first uses the time-series (2005–2015) extended input-output database to study China’s embodied energy and intensity in both normal and processing exports. Structural decomposition analysis (SDA) is then applied to analyze the driving forces behind the embodiment changes. The empirical results show that China’s energy embodied in both normal and processing exports first increased in 2005–2008, dropped in 2009 due to the global financial crisis, and then rose again after 2009, and finally dropped in 2014–2015. The embodied energy in trade as a percentage of total energy consumption in China was relatively stable before and after the global financial crisis, at around 28% over the 2005–2008 period, and 22% over the 2009–2015 period. The contribution of the aggregate embodied intensity (AEI) of exports to China’s aggregate energy intensity dropped from 30% in 2005 to 21% in 2015. Among China’s trading partners, the United States, Japan and Korea together accounted for around half of China’s embodied energy and AEI in exports in 2005, but their shares dropped to only one third in 2015. Energy efficiency improvement played the key role in reducing the embodied energy and intensity in China’s exports. Similar analysis can be applied to other regions and indicators.     

The embodied energy in trade: What role does specialization play?

Many industrialized countries are net importers of embodied energy and emissions, while many developing countries are net exporters. We examine the role of specialization in driving these trade patterns by conducting a spatial index decomposition analysis on the embodied energy in net exports for 41 economies. The results reveal that industrialized countries have generally offshored energy intensive production, which many developing countries specialize in. We find that specialization, on average, makes the biggest contribution, accounting for roughly 50% of a country's embodied energy in net exports. However, other factors, namely energy intensity and the trade balance, combine to make an equally important contribution. In summary, specialization, despite its significant role, is not the only cause of the embodied energy trade patterns observed between industrialized and developing countries.     

Aggregation of the UK's energy conservation options

Should the UK economy grow at an annual rate of $\text{2}\text{1}\text{2}$ to 3 per cent between now and the end of the century, total primary demand for energy might reach about 600 mtce if the nation paid no serious attention to energy conservation. However, the adoption of a rigorous, technology based conservation programme as described in this paper could mean that primary energy demand would be only between 400 and 450 mtce.The main options for saving energy by the application of technology are seen to be as follows, in ranking order: economies in general industrial operations insulation of buildings improvements in the mpg of motor vehicles economies in the production of chemicals economies in the production of steel products widespread introduction of heat pumps combined heat and power/district heatingThe magnitude of the potential savings corresponds to a savings on the national fuel bill, if prices doubled, of nearly £8000 millions a year by the end of the century. The integrated savings over the intervening years could reach £40,000 millions with present-day prices.The reduced rate of growth of energy demand due to pursuing a rigorous energy conservation programme could mean that annual primary demand in the year 2000 would be equal to what it would have been 12 years earlier in the absence of conservation. This ‘buying’ of time could be valuable in terms of developing new energy supply technologies.If the package of conservation measures as described in this paper were actually carried out, a major shift of resources away from the energy supply industries into general manufacturing industry would necessarily occur.Although the pursuance of an all-out energy conservation programme based on appropriate technologies would appear highly desirable, it is unlikely to occur if left to market forces, for various reasons. Government would need to play a conspicuous role in both starting such a programme and in maintaining its momentum over many years.     

Border carbon adjustments: Addressing emissions embodied in trade

Approximately one fourth of global emissions are embodied in international trade and a significant portion flows from non-carbon-priced to carbon-priced economies. Border carbon adjustments (BCAs) figure prominently as instruments to address concerns arising from unilateral climate policy. Estimating the volume of emissions that could be potentially taxed under a BCA scheme has received little attention until now. This paper examines how a number of issues involved in the implementation of BCAs can affect their ability to cover emissions embodied in trade and thus address carbon leakage. These issues range from ensuring compliance with trade provisions and assumptions on the carbon intensity of imports, to determining which countries are included and whether intermediate and final demand are considered. Here we show that the volume of CO₂ captured by a scheme that involved all Annex B countries could be significantly reduced due to these issues, particularly by trade provisions, such as the principle of ‘best available technology’ (BAT). As a consequence, the tariff burdens faced by non-Annex B parties could dwindle considerably. These findings have important policy implications, as they question the effectiveness and practicalities of BCAs to reduce carbon leakage and alleviate competitiveness concerns, adding further arguments against their implementation.     

2013年世界能源行业发展状况

2013年以来,全球经济复苏有所减弱,国际能源供需格局稳中有变,消费东移、生产西移的趋势愈加明显.从能源结构看,全球油气供需格局深刻调整,价格与贸易流向变化显著;煤炭消费总量和增速继续上升,但地区消费的不平衡性加剧,贸易流向有所改变;煤炭、天然气的相对价格变化导致各国电源结构发生显著变化;全球核电消费继续下降,欧美各国在核能的开发和利用上愈加谨慎;水电发展区域性突出;风电行业发展面临不确定性;光伏产业则呈现复苏态势.     

Developments in international solid biofuel trade—An analysis of volumes,policies, and market factors

This paper presents and analyses international solid biofuel trade and concludes upon interactions with bioenergy policies and market factors. It shows that trade has grown from about 56 to 300 PJ between 2000 and 2010. Wood pellets grew strongest, i.e. from 8.5 to 120 PJ. Other relevant streams by 2010 included wood waste (77 PJ), fuelwood (76 PJ), wood chips (17 PJ), residues (9 PJ), and roundwood (2.4 PJ). Intra-EU trade covered two thirds of global trade by 2010. Underlying markets are highly heterogeneous; generally though trade evolved whenever supply side market factors coincided with existing/emerging demand patterns. Market factors and policies both defined trade volumes; though policy changes did not have as prominent effects on trade developments as in the liquid biofuel sector. Economic viability is the key limiting factor. Main exporting countries have low feedstock costs and already existing wood processing industries. Trade-relevant aspects are the commodity's monetary value; determined by its homogeneity, heating value, and bulk density. Consumer markets are diverse: in residential heating, demand/trade patterns have been influenced by local biofuel availability and short-term price signals, i.e. mainly price competitiveness and investment support for boilers/stoves. Commodities are mainly sourced regionally, but price differences have triggered a growing trade. The industrial segment is greatly influenced by policy frameworks but more mature (e.g. established routes). Trade is strictly linked to margins (defined mainly by policies) and combustion technologies. Uncertainties in the analysis are due to data gaps across and within databases regarding import/export declarations. To estimate bioenergy related trade, anecdotal data was indispensable. We believe datasets should be streamlined across international institutions to eventually enable reporting of global trade beyond digit-6-level. Research is needed to provide further insights into informal markets. Interrelations between trade factors are particularly relevant when mapping future trade streams under different policy/trade regime scenarios.     

Methane emissions by Chinese economy: Inventory and embodiment analysis

Concrete inventories for methane emissions and associated embodied emissions in production, consumption, and international trade are presented in this paper for the mainland Chinese economy in 2007 with most recent availability of relevant environmental resources statistics and the input–output table. The total CH₄ emission by Chinese economy 2007 estimated as 39,592.70 Gg is equivalent to three quarters of China's CO₂ emission from fuel combustion by the global thermodynamic potentials, and even by the commonly referred lower IPCC global warming potentials is equivalent to one sixth of China's CO₂ emission from fuel combustion and greater than the CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion of many economically developed countries such as UK, Canada, and Germany. Agricultural activities and coal mining are the dominant direct emission sources, and the sector of Construction holds the top embodied emissions in both production and consumption. The emission embodied in gross capital formation is more than those in other components of final demand characterized by extensive investment and limited consumption. China is a net exporter of embodied CH₄ emissions with the emission embodied in exports of 14,021.80 Gg, in magnitude up to 35.42% of the total direct emission. China's exports of textile products, industrial raw materials, and primary machinery and equipment products have a significant impact on its net embodied emissions of international trade balance. Corresponding policy measures such as agricultural carbon-reduction strategies, coalbed methane recovery, export-oriented and low value added industry adjustment, and low carbon energy polices to methane emission mitigation are addressed.     

Economic impacts of higher oil and gas prices: The role of international trade for Germany

The analysis concentrates on direct and indirect price increases, induced shifts in international trade and structural changes in the oil importing economies. The paper at hand asks, whether a stabilizing effect via international trade and domestic structural change on the GDP of oil importing countries can be observed, if a permanent oil price increase occurs. At least for Germany, structural change from consumer goods to investment goods industry and an improvement of international competitiveness limit negative impacts of increased energy prices. Analysis is based on the extensive and disaggregated global GINFORS model and the detailed INFORGE model for the German economy.     

A multi-regional input–output analysis of the pollution haven hypothesis from the perspective of global production fragmentation

Pollution haven hypothesis is an important debate on the environmental effects of international trade, the pattern of which has been reshaped obviously by global production fragmentation recently. The production process is distributed globally, and the pollution haven effect of international trade is becoming more complicated. For instance, intermediate product trade corresponds to the largest share of embodied emissions, and the share of emissions induced by the global value chain related trade is increasing gradually. The aim of this paper is to make a comprehensive analysis on the pollution haven hypothesis in carbon emissions embodied in three different trade patterns from global, bilateral, and national perspectives. We propose a method to parcel the pollution haven hypothesis in a multi-regional input–output analysis and discuss the contribution of production fragmentation for global emissions. It is found that international production fragmentation generates global emissions savings. The intermediate product trade has a negative balance of avoided emissions. The final product trade becomes increasingly less environmentally effective during the period 1995–2009. There are significant differences in the environmental effects of different trade patterns for each country.     

The future choice of technologies and co-benefits of CO2 emission reduction in Bangladesh power sector

This paper examines the impacts of CO₂ emission reduction on future technology selection and energy use in Bangladesh power sector up to 2035 considering the base year 2005. It also examines the implications of CO₂ emission reduction targets on energy security of the country. The analysis is based on a long-term energy system model of Bangladesh using the MARKAL framework. The results show that the introduction of the CO₂ emission reduction targets directly affect the shift of technologies from high carbon content fossil-based to low carbon content fossil-based as well as clean, renewable energy-based technologies compared to the base scenario. With the CO₂ emission reduction target of 10–30%, the cumulative net energy imports during 2005–2035 would be reduced in the range of over 1400 PJ to 4898 PJ compared to the base scenario emission level. The total primary energy requirement would be reduced in the range of 5.5–15.2% in the CO₂ emission reduction targets and the primary energy supply system would be diversified compared to the base scenario.     

The global socioeconomic energetic metabolism as a sustainability problem

This paper discusses sustainability problems related to socioeconomic energy flows based upon the societal metabolism approach. Contrary to conventional energy statistics that only include energy used in technical devices, this approach considers all kinds of energy flows related to human societies, including nutritional energy flows of humans and domesticated animals. Based upon human population data and data on the pro capite energy metabolism of hunter-gatherers and agricultural societies as well as on statistical data on industrial energy flows a time series of the global socioeconomic energetic metabolism for the last 10⁶ years and a scenario for the next 50 years is derived. These estimates show that the total energy input of mankind has risen by several orders of magnitude since the Neolithic revolution about 10,000 years ago. Whereas the energy input of agricultural societies prior to the advent of industrial societies about 200–300 years ago did not exceed 5% of global terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP), humanity's energy input currently amounts to about 30% of global terrestrial NPP and is likely to surpass 50% in about 2050. This shows that the sheer magnitude of human-induced flows is historically unprecedented and poses at least two closely interrelated sustainability challenges: (1) a reduction of energy available to ecosystem processes that can be assessed using the concept of ‘human appropriation of net primary productivity’ and (2) the changes in the global carbon cycle resulting from land-use change and fossil-energy combustion.     

Exploration of the land potential for the production of biomass for energy in the Netherlands

The energy potential for energy crops and biomass residues in the Netherlands is assessed. The analysis explores the possible use of land for biomass production in the future. Various government memorandums and analyses of the expected future land use in various sectors have served as the basis for the assessment of the supply of and the demand for land in the future. In this study the potential supply of agricultural land is based on expected productivity increments in agriculture and assumptions with respect to the future demand for agricultural products. Various future claims for infrastructure, forestry, urban areas and nature are subtracted from the expected supply. The net projected supply of land ranges from zero to 52 000 ha in 2000 to 110 000-250 000 ha in 2015. The supply of agricultural land depends however on a number of supra-national factors, such as the European agricultural policy, world market developments and the agricultural production in the countries in Eastern Europe. Uncertainties remain, therefore, and the projected supply of agricultural land should be considered as a possible scenario based on current trends. If the calculated land potential is used for energy crops like miscanthus and short rotation coppice, this land could contribute 0-10 PJ in 2000 and 27-59 PJ in 2015. Secondary biomass yields, such as those from forestry, agricultural residues, wood from prunings, etc., could contribute a further 34 PJ in 2000, decreasing to approximately 28 PJ in 2015. Taken together these potentials could satisfy 1-1.5% of the energy requirements of the Netherlands in 2000 and 1.5-2.5% in 2015, provided that energy farming is an economically feasible activity for farmers.     

Determinants of global natural gas consumption and import–export flows

Based on the data of the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, this paper constructs the consumption and import–export of natural gas identities. It discusses the drivers of changes in global natural gas consumption and trade flows from 2008 to 2015 using the extended logarithmic mean Divisia index. The results show that differences in the natural gas supply and demand across countries or regions, as well as the distribution of energy between the domestic and international markets, can be better explained when natural gas trade movements are considered. By comparing the supply and consumption increment of natural gas, this study finds that only the energy intensity, economic growth, and demographic effects are consistent with each other. The changes in the impact of other effects mainly depend on storage variations and statistical errors. In addition, the primary drivers of the incremental changes in natural gas consumption vary in different countries. They include production scale, import scale, export scale, consumption structure proportion, energy intensity, economic growth, and population and balance effects. Finally, the consumption competitiveness of the liquefied natural gas significantly improved over the examined period.     

Analysis of energy embodied in the international trade of UK

Interest in the role embodied energy plays in international trade and its subsequent impact on energy security has grown. As a developed nation, the UK's economic structure has changed from that of a primary producer to that of a primary consumer. Although the UK's energy consumption appears to have peaked, it imports a lot of energy embodied in international trade alongside the more obvious direct energy imports. The UK has seen increasing dependency on imported fossil energy since the UK became a net energy importer in 2005. In this paper an energy input–output model is established to calculate not only the amount of fossil energy embodied in UK's imports and exports, but also the sector and country distributions of those embodied fossil energy. The research results suggest the following: UK's embodied fossil energy imports have exceeded embodied fossil energy exports every year since 1997, UK embodied energy imports through the so-called ‘Made in China’ phenomena are the largest accounting for 43% of total net fossil energy imports. If net embodied fossil energy imports are considered, the gap between energy consumption and production in UK is much larger than commonly perceived, with subsequent implications to the UK's energy security.     

An impending platinum crisis and its implications for the future of the automobile

The global demand for platinum has consistently outgrown supply in the past decade. This trend likely will continue and the imbalance may possibly escalate into a crisis. Platinum plays pivotal roles in both conventional automobile emissions control and the envisioned hydrogen economy. A platinum crisis would have profound implications on energy and environment. On the one hand, inadequate platinum supply will prevent widespread commercialization of hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles. On the other hand, expensive platinum may enhance the competitiveness of hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery-powered electric cars. Policymakers should weigh the potential impacts of a platinum crisis in energy policy.     

Examining the resilience of national energy systems: Measurements of diversity in production-based and consumption-based electricity in the globalization of trade networks

Energy is a critical component of achieving sustainable development. In addition to the three aspects of promoting access, renewables, and efficiency, the dimension of resilience in energy systems should also considered. The implementation of resilient energy systems requires a quantitative understanding of the socio-economic practices underlying such systems. Specifically, in line with the increasing globalization of trade, there remains a critical knowledge gap on the link between embodied energy in the production and consumption of traded goods. To bridge this knowledge gap, we investigate the resilience of global energy systems through an examination of a diversity measure of global embodied electricity trade based on multi-regional input-output (MRIO) networks. The significance of this research lies in its ability to utilize high resolution MRIO data sets in assessing the resilience of national energy systems. This research indicates that secure and responsible consumption requires the diversification of not only energy generation but also energy imports. This research will lay the ground for further research in the governance of resilience in global energy networks.