Cooperation mechanisms to achieve EU renewable targets

There are considerable benefits from cooperating among member states on meeting the 2020 renewable energy sources (RES) targets. Today countries are supporting investments in renewable energy by many different types of support schemes and with different levels of support. The EU has opened for cooperation mechanisms such as joint support schemes for promoting renewable energy to meet the 2020 targets. The potential coordination benefits, with more efficient localisation and composition of renewable investment, can be achieved by creating new areas/sub-segments of renewable technologies where support costs are shared and credits are transferred between countries.Countries that are not coordinating support for renewable energy might induce inefficient investment in new capacity that would have been more beneficial elsewhere and still have provided the same contribution to meeting the 2020 RES targets. Furthermore, countries might find themselves competing for investment in a market with limited capital available. In both cases, the cost-efficiency of the renewable support policies is reduced compared to a coordinated solution.Barriers for joint support such as network regulation regarding connection of new capacity to the electricity grid and cost sharing rules for electricity transmission expansion are examined and examples given. The influence of additional renewable capacity on domestic/regional power market prices can be a barrier. The market will be influenced by for example an expansion of the wind capacity resulting in lower prices, which will affect existing conventional producers. This development will be opposed by conventional producers, whereas consumers will support such a strategy.A major barrier is the timing of RES targets and the uncertainty regarding future targets. We illustrate the importance of different assumptions on future targets and the implied value of RES credits. The effect on the credit price for 2020 is presented in an exemplary case study of 200 MW wind capacity.     

Optimal design of feed-in-tariffs to stimulate renewable energy investments under regulatory uncertainty — A real options analysis

Feed-in-tariffs (FITs) are widely used as policy instruments to promote investments in renewable energy sources (RES). While FITs are often regarded as the most effective RES support scheme, regulators around the world continuously review their FIT schemes in the light of budget constraints and evolving policy goals. We assess the impact of adjustments to FIT schemes by quantifying the relationship between FIT levels, i.e., the guaranteed amount paid per quantity of electricity produced and the propensity to invest in RES. Through a regime switching model, we quantify the impact of regulatory uncertainty induced by regulators considering moves from a FIT scheme to a more market-oriented regulatory regime. Our focus is on market-independent, fixed FITs, the dominant scheme in Europe receiving increasing attention globally. We find that RES investment projects under market-independent, fixed FIT schemes become now-or-never decisions and derive FIT thresholds required to induce investment. We show that uncertainty regarding future regulatory regimes delays or even reduces investment activity for FIT levels near electricity market prices and high probabilities of an imminent regime switch.     

Top down strategy for renewable energy investment: Conceptual framework and implementation

Electricity market is undergoing a tremendous transformation throughout the world. A drastic reduction of carbon emission cannot be realized if renewable energy resources are not increased in share of generation mix. Currently, most of the traditional mechanisms, including regulatory policies, fiscal incentives and public financing, are initiated from and heavily relied on policymakers and governments. However, not only these schemes do not necessarily align with business interests of investors, but also the motivations for renewable energy developments are always initiated by governments. In order to realize the full potential of renewable energy investment, an innovative approach is necessary to motivate investors and lessen government expenditures.In this paper, we present a top down strategy for renewable energy investment. The proposed approach is a three-step framework. By applying the approach, renewable energy global market leaders and trends will be identified and analyzed that included: (1) economics and renewable energy policy, (2) specific renewable energy sectors that presents the most attractive investment opportunity, (3) and finally the most promising renewable energy investment vehicles for investors. Other stakeholders can also use the developed framework, such as consumers and policymakers, to make socio-economic decisions and assess renewable energy investments.     

Renewable energy investment opportunities in Mauritius—an investor’s perspective

The main purpose of the paper is to explore the renewable energy investment opportunities in Mauritius. Magnum Power, an engineering firm in India promoting renewable energy technologies, conducted a feasibility study to identify the possibilities of investments on various renewable energy projects in Mauritius. The study analysed the Mauritius energy scenario, the earlier and recent renewable energy projects, the current status of such projects, the barriers for renewable energy developments, and the suitable renewable energy technology for fruitful investment. Based on the study outcome, an investment proposal for a 10 MW wind farm project is presented, which would be a useful guideline for investors looking for investment opportunities in Mauritius.     

The impact of clean energy investments on the Greek economy: An input–output analysis (2010–2020)

The aim of this paper is twofold: first, to calculate the “green” energy investments, by industrial sector, that Greece would need in order to satisfy a number of energy and environmental targets adopted in the context of the European Commission’s energy and climate change package; and second, to calculate the macro-economic impacts of these “green” investments on production and employment in the Greek economy. To this end, the input–output analysis has been exploited for estimating the direct, indirect and induced macroeconomic effects associated with the implementation of selected energy conservation measures, the promotion of renewable energy technologies, etc. Our findings show that the required investments would reach the amount of €47.9 billion, over the period 2010–2020. These investments will result in an average annual increase of the national product by €9.4 billion, creating simultaneously 108,000 full-time equivalent jobs for the entire period under consideration. The employment generated per €1 million investment is relatively higher in energy saving projects in buildings and transport in comparison with the development of RES in power generation sector.     

Decision support system for exploiting local renewable energy sources: A case study of the Chigu area of southwestern Taiwan

The topic of climate and energy policy has drawn new attention since the Kyoto Protocol has now come into force. It is hoped that strengthened use of renewable energy sources can meet new international environmental requirements and provide self-sufficient domestic energy supplies. The decision support system established in this study integrates potential evaluations, cost analyses, legal incentives, and analysis of returns on investments with the aid of a geographic information system (GIS). This system can provide insights for policymakers into where and the extent of the potentials, for lawmakers into whether the current legal incentives are sufficient to encourage private investment, and for investors into whether investments in exploiting local renewable energy sources are economically feasible. Under the current incentive framework in Taiwan, the amortization periods of investment on renewable energy are generally longer than the period over which the investment is to be recovered. This presents an unfavorable condition for attracting investments to and for developing renewable energy. An increase in remuneration through legal revisions is needed before domestic investment in renewable energy will actively expand.     

可再生能源绿证价格季节性测算方法研究

  目的  在市场化交易模式消纳可再生能源发电的发展趋势下,“市场电价+绿证收入”将成为未来可再生能源发电企业的主要经营模式。以可再生能源发电参与现货电能量市场为研究大背景,对可再生能源绿色电力证书的价格进行研究。  方法  基于现货电能量市场的优化出清模型,应用可再生能源全生命周期成本测算理论,以满足可再生能源发电企业的内部收益为目的,建立了绿证-电能量市场耦合的优化模型,并结合可再生能源季节性出力特性,提出了可再生能源绿证价格季节性曲线及其波动区间的仿真和测算方法。  结果  不同类型的可再生能源绿证价格不同,不同类型的可再生能源绿证价格的气候相关性亦不相同。  结论  绿证价格的科学合理测算不仅可以帮助可再生能源发电企业进行收益评估和制定更为准确的投资决策,还为电力市场主体与交易中心提供相关决策支持。     

Contribution of green labels in electricity retail markets to fostering renewable energy

In European countries, retailers are obliged to disclose the energy source and the related environmental impacts of their portfolio over the preceding year. The electricity supplied in the Dutch retail market is presented as renewable energy for 34%, but this relatively high share is for 69% based on certificates (Guarantees of Origin) which are imported from in particular Norway. The certificates are used to sell green electricity to consumers. The premium for green electricity which is actually paid by Dutch consumers is no more than a few percentages of the retail price. The low level of this premium is related to the abundant supply of certificates at low marginal costs from Norway. This also means that the premium for green electricity is too low to give an incentive for investments in new capacity. Hence, the current labelling system for renewable electricity is mainly valuable, besides being an instrument for tracking and tracing of renewable energy, as a marketing instrument for electricity retailers. The effectiveness of Guarantees of Origin as a policy instrument to foster renewable electricity sources is weak. This effectiveness can be raised by implementing restrictions on the international trade or the issuance of new certificates.     

Investment risks in power generation: A comparison of fossil fuel and renewable energy dominated markets

Due to their high capital intensity, weather dependent renewable energies (RES) such as solar and wind face considerable investment risks in power markets. In addition, their uncertain production volumes also affect the investment risks of other plant types through the impact on power prices and residual demand. Increasing RES shares thus potentially increase overall investment risks in power markets, which many analysts consider to be a potential problem. Against this background, this paper compares investment risks of different technologies in markets with increasing shares of variable RES. It further analyses how generation mixes are affected by these investment risks if the risks are evaluated on a stand-alone basis or in a plant portfolio context of a private firm. For this purpose, a stylized investment and dispatch model is used to conduct Monte Carlo simulations from which risk measures are derived. The results show that capital intensive RES face the highest stand-alone risks, since their profits are most affected by the power price risk. However, the results further indicate that the stand-alone risks of variable RES decrease with their share in the market because of a negative correlation of output and price risk. In addition, RES have a risk benefit in firm plant portfolios in terms of constituting a hedge against losses of fossil fuel plants. This positive portfolio effect, however, rapidly decreases and becomes negative with increasing RES shares in the market.     

What are retail investors' risk-return preferences towards renewable energy projects? A choice experiment in Germany

Citizens own nearly half the renewable energy generation capacity in Germany and have been important drivers of the country's energy transition. In contrast to citizens' important role in financing renewable energies, the energy policy and economics literature has traditionally focused on other investors, such as incumbent energy firms. To close this gap, this paper reports on a large-scale survey of 1,990 German retail investors. Conducting a choice experiment with the subset of 1,041 respondents who expressed an interest in investing in community renewable energy projects, we present a unique dataset allowing for new insights in risk-return expectations of retail investors. We find that apart from return on investment, respondents are particularly sensitive to the minimum holding period and the issuer of community renewable energy investment offerings. A minimum holding period of 10 years implies a risk premium of 2.76% points. A subsequent segmentation analysis shows that two groups of potential community renewable energy investors with different risk-return expectations can be identified: “local patriots” and “yield investors”. In contrast to professional investors, a majority of retail investors use simple decision rules such as calculating payback time or relying on their gut feeling when making investments.     

Assessment of public acceptance and willingness to pay for renewable energy sources in Crete

The aim of this study is to analyse and to evaluate the citizens’ public acceptance and willingness to pay (WTP), for Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in Crete. For this purpose a contingent valuation study was conducted, using a double bound dichotomous choice format to elicit people's WTP and factors affecting it. Residents of 1440 households all over Crete were interviewed face-to-face. Major conclusions can be used as a basis for sustainable energy planning, for policies and the formulation of awareness campaigns and for RES investment programs and projects in order to prepare implementation conditions and enhance public acceptance of renewable energy investments and programmes. Mean WTP per household was found to be 16.33€ to be paid quarterly as an additional charge on the electricity bill. Larger willingness to pay was reported by those with high family income and residence size, those having a higher level of energy information and awareness concerning climatic change, those who have invested in some energy saving measures, and those who suffer from more electricity shortages than others.     

A method for allocating renewable energy source subsidies among final energy consumers

In a new context of growing need for renewable energy sources (RES), tariff design has become a critical component of energy system regulation. A methodology for allocating the cost of RES subsidies that ensures an optimal balance between compliance with the main regulatory principles of tariff design and each state's specific policy is of cardinal importance in the current context. This paper presents and discusses a novel methodology to allocate the RES subsidy costs, which consists of distributing them among final energy consumers, in proportion to their consumption, regardless of the type of final energy consumed (liquid fuels, gas, electricity or coal).     

Electricity market design for facilitating the integration of wind energy: Experience and prospects with the Australian National Electricity Market

Australia has been an early and enthusiastic adopter of both electricity industry restructuring and market-based environmental regulation. The Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) was established in 1999 and Australia also implemented one of the world's first renewable energy target schemes in 2001. With significant recent growth in wind generation, Australia provides an interesting case for assessing different approaches to facilitating wind integration into the electricity industry. Wind project developers in Australia must assess both potential energy market and Tradeable Green Certificate income streams when making investments. Wind-farm energy income depends on the match of its uncertain time varying output with the regional half hourly market price; a price that exhibits daily, weekly and seasonal patterns and considerable uncertainty. Such price signals assist in driving investments that maximize project value to the electricity industry as a whole, including integration costs and benefits for other participants. Recent NEM rule changes will formally integrate wind generation in the market's scheduling processes while a centralized wind forecasting system has also been introduced. This paper outlines experience to date with wind integration in the NEM, describes the evolution of market rules in response and assesses their possible implications for facilitating high future wind penetrations.     

Valuing investment decisions of renewable energy projects considering changing volatility

Volatility is an important parameter when evaluating investments using the real options method. For renewable energy investments, the volatility of cash flow continuously changes, because as new information and knowledge are gathered, there is less foreseen variation. This paper proposes an extended recombining trinomial tree model, where the changing volatility is used to generate transition probabilities. The changing volatility is generated using a consolidation process where multiple random variables, including the market price of electricity, carbon price, and lending rate, are integrated into a low-dimension stochastic process. A two-factor learning curve is used to model the changes of investment cost. We apply the proposed model to analyze solar photovoltaic (PV) power generation investment in China. The results show volatility with changing feature. Compared with constant volatility, changing volatility may advance investment decisions and change the project value. Complete grid parity policy in the solar PV industry is infeasible because the opportunity cost brought by the option of delaying cannot be offset. The changing volatility may produce a lower and equally effective subsidy level compared with constant volatility. A carbon emission trading scheme is helpful in advancing investments in renewable energy, which is reflected in improvements in project value, advancements in investment decisions, and reductions in the required subsidy level.     

State-scale evaluation of renewable electricity policy: The role of renewable electricity credits and carbon taxes

We have developed a state-scale version of the MARKAL energy optimization model, commonly used to model energy policy at the US national scale and internationally. We apply the model to address state-scale impacts of a renewable electricity standard (RES) and a carbon tax in one southeastern state, Georgia. Biomass is the lowest cost option for large-scale renewable generation in Georgia; we find that electricity can be generated from biomass co-firing at existing coal plants for a marginal cost above baseline of 0.2–2.2 cents/kWh and from dedicated biomass facilities for 3.0–5.5 cents/kWh above baseline. We evaluate the cost and amount of renewable electricity that would be produced in-state and the amount of out-of-state renewable electricity credits (RECs) that would be purchased as a function of the REC price. We find that in Georgia, a constant carbon tax to 2030 primarily promotes a shift from coal to natural gas and does not result in substantial renewable electricity generation. We also find that the option to offset a RES with renewable electricity credits would push renewable investment out-of-state. The tradeoff for keeping renewable investment in-state by not offering RECs is an approximately 1% additional increase in the levelized cost of electricity.     

Algerian renewable energy assessment: The challenge of sustainability

Algeria plays a very important role in world energy markets, both as a significant hydrocarbon producer and as an exporter, as well as a key participant in the renewable energy market. Due to its geographical location, Algeria holds one of the highest solar potentials in the world. This paper presents a review of the present renewable energy situation and assesses present and future potential of renewable energy sources (RESs) in Algeria. This paper also discusses the trends and expectation in solar systems applications and the aspects of future implementation of renewable energies in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region status. The problem related to the use of RES and polices to enhance the use of these sources are also analysed in this paper. In addition the available capacity building, the technical know-how for each RES technology and localizing manufacturing of renewable energy equipments are defined. The co-importance of both policy and technology investments for the future Algerian markets of RES and competitiveness of the solar/wind approach is emphasized. Some examples of policy significantly impacting Algerian markets are reviewed, and the intention of the new Algerian RES initiative is discussed.     

De-risking investment into concentrated solar power in North Africa: Impacts on the costs of electricity generation

A low-carbon energy transition on the basis of renewable energy sources (RES) is of crucial importance to solve the interlinked global challenges of climate change and energy security. However, large-scale deployment of RES requires substantial investments, including the participation of private capital. Scientific evidence shows that the economic feasibility of a RES project hinges on the availability of affordable project financing, which itself depends on risk perceptions by private investors. Since financing costs tend to be particularly high for capital-intensive RES projects and in developing countries, we investigate the impacts of addressing these perceived risks on electricity prices from semi-dispatchable concentrated solar power (CSP) in four North African countries. By employing a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) model we find that comprehensively de-risking CSP investments leads to a 39% reduction in the mean LCOE from CSP. However, this reduction is still not sufficient to achieve economic competitiveness of CSP with highly subsidized conventional electricity from fossil fuels in North Africa. Hence, our results suggest that de-risking reflects an important strategy to foster the deployment of CSP in North Africa but additional measures to support RES, such as reconsidering fossil fuel subsidies, will be needed.     

The effect of the feed-in-system policy on renewable energy investments: Evidence from the EU countries

We study the effect of the Feed-in-System (FIS) policy on wind and solar photovoltaic energy investments in the European Union (EU), over the time period between 1992 and 2015, considering the heterogeneity of the policies and market conditions across the EU countries. We develop a FIS subsidy performance indicator that distinguishes feed-in-tariff (FIT) from feed-in-premium (FIP) and considers other important aspects of each of these contracts, such as the duration, tariff price, energy spot price and production costs, as well as the market conditions. We conclude that the mere existence of the FIS policy does not necessarily enhance renewable energy investments, it depends on the type of the FIS contract and its features, and may vary across the different sources of renewable energy. Some of our findings are new to the literature and can have important implications in the development of new public investment incentives to promote renewable energy.     

Network tariff design with prosumers and electromobility: Who wins,who loses?

Distributed Energy Resources (DERs), mostly in the form of solar photovoltaic (PV) or lithium-ion batteries, and electric vehicles (EVs) are emerging as three disruptive innovations in power grids. Recent studies have pointed out the potential synergies between these technologies, while others have studied the difficulty to design adequate network tariff when some consumers can adopt DERs (prosumers). In this paper, we investigate the combined effect of DERs and EVs on grid cost recovery. To study these effects, we formulate a non-cooperative game between a regulator that sets tariffs to recover grid costs and the four classes of network users depending on whether they are prosumer (resp. EV owners) or not. We study how tariff structures and the levels of EV penetration and prosuming affect tariffs. First, we find that grid cost recovery concerns caused by load-defecting prosumers installing DER can be balanced by the diffusion of EVs in the network. Second, we highlight that EVs and DERs adoptions are conflicting through the network tariff design. In particular, we find that the more a tariff structure gives incentives for DERs, the less beneficial it is for EVs.     

Analysis of the EU renewable energy directive by a techno-economic optimisation model

The EU renewable energy (RES) directive sets a target of increasing the share of renewable energy used in the EU to 20% by 2020. The Norwegian goal for the share of renewable energy in 2020 is 67.5%, an increase from 60.1% in 2005. The Norwegian power production is almost solely based on renewable resources and the possibility to change from fossil power plants to renewable power production is almost non-existing. Therefore other measures have to be taken to fulfil the RES directive. Possible ways for Norway to reach its target for 2020 are analysed with a technology-rich, bottom-up energy system model (TIMES-Norway). This new model is developed with a high time resolution among others to be able to analyse intermittent power production. Model results indicate that the RES target can be achieved with a diversity of options including investments in hydropower, wind power, high-voltage power lines for export, various heat pump technologies, energy efficiency measures and increased use of biodiesel in the transportation sector. Hence, it is optimal to invest in a portfolio of technology choices in order to satisfy the RES directive, and not one single technology in one energy sector.