园区能源供需价量双层Stackelberg博弈模型

针对园区能源交易中能源商和用户的价量优化问题,提出园区能源供需价量双层Stackelberg博弈模型。上层模型能源商以实现自身利益最大化为目标,考虑多能流率平衡约束和外网交互约束、电转气、储电/热和燃气轮机等源储约束,通过竞争决定能源价格;下层模型考虑用户用能需求响应,以用能成本最小化为目标,考虑负荷需求约束,根据能源商的决策价格,决定用能需求,能源商进一步根据用户用能需求优化能源价格,反复迭代至收敛。算例结果显示所提方法能有效实现双方效益最大化。     

零售端电力市场中的电量电价弹性矩阵

掌握电力市场中电能需求随电能价格变动的规律(即需求响应规律)对于合理确定电价与市场开拓是极为重要的,而这一问题的关键是分析用户需求对价格的敏感度(即用户的价格需求弹,性).文中给出了电量电价弹性矩阵的建立过程,并分析了由于用户分类及电价分类不同所引起的弹性矩阵结构的不同.在此基础上,提出了一种弹性矩阵的简化方法.并通过算例,进一步给出了在中国当前零售端电力市场中,电量电价弹性矩阵的求取过程.结果分析表明,在这种情况下,自弹性系数与交叉弹性系数是互补型的.实际应用表明该模型能够反映当前市场中的需求规律,具有一定的实用价值.     

The effect of demand elasticity on security prices for the PoolCoand multi-lateral contract models

Optimum power flows and security constrained power flows assume that customer demand is a fixed quantity. In the new competitive environment, it is necessary to assume that demand is elastic and will vary as a function of price. A critical element in any competitive model, whether it be a PoolCo or a multi-lateral contract model, is for a system operator to ensure reliability and feasibility of the power system operating point. Security pricing for feasibility was first advanced by Schweppe et al for the case of line flow constraints for a PoolCo model. Using geometry, this paper generalizes the approach to include any security constraint for a general competitive model. The paper discusses interpretations of security pricing and its possible implementation in energy management systems     

低碳形势下的灵活电价机制研究

从基于需求侧管理的电价机制角度探究了电力行业低碳化的发展方向.针对传统电价机制的缺点与不足,提出了弹性分时电价、均值电价、预付式分时电价以及节能设施补助电价等一系列基于需求侧管理的灵活电价机制及相应模型,在分析模型原理和适用范围的基础上,通过算例对弹性分时电价、均值电价、预付式分时电价三种模型的实际算法及可行性进行研究,并结合广东地区的特点分别给出了这三种模型适用区域的建议.     

基于大用户能效的电网需求响应机制

提出一种基于等效节能量的大用户能效评价方法,设计基于大用户能效的需求响应机制。建立涉及用户侧、发电侧、电力市场的需求响应系统仿真模型,根据仿真模型对基于大用户能效的需求响应机制进行优化,结果表明:实施基于大用户能效的需求响应机制不仅可以提高高耗能行业的平均能效水平,而且可以保证总用电量、电力市场成交额基本不变;最大能效惩罚系数设为0.15元/(kW·h)时可实现社会等效节能量最大化,此时需求响应机制最优。     

Demand-side view of electricity markets

This tutorial paper discusses some aspects of electricity markets from the perspective of the demand-side. It argues that increasing the short-run price elasticity of the demand for electrical energy would improve the operation of these markets. It shows, however, that enhancing this elasticity is not an easy task. The tools that consumers and retailers of electrical energy need to participate more actively and effectively in electricity markets are discussed. The paper also describes how consumers of electricity can take part in the provision of power system security.     

考虑双边价格联动的峰谷分时电价机理研究

论文分析了"厂网分开,竞价上网"电力市场中,需求侧峰谷分时电价体系的特点和存在的不足,在已有研究成果的基础上,建立了基于双边价格联动的峰谷分时电价数学模型,并以江苏省某市供电公司负荷控制中心实测日的负荷数据进行仿真分析,得到了削峰填谷最优时的峰谷分时电价。仿真结果进一步验证了所建模型在保持了优化的负荷平滑效果的基础上,有效地克服了单纯基于需求侧管理的模型在各方利益分享和风险分担问题上存在的明显不足。     

Electrical Energy Management in the Cement Industry

A cement plant uses about 150 kWh of electrical energy per metric ton of cement produced. Where is this electrical energy being used? How is it being used? Can it be utilized more effectively? If so, how? What can be done to conserve the electrical energy used in an existing cement plant and in future cement plants? An electrical energy management program to resolve these questions is presented. Included is an electrical energy consumption survey of five cement plants. Department consumption is tabulated, and suggestions are made to conserve electrical energy and reduce cost of electrical power in both new and existing plants.     

用电需求曲线建模及其应用

根据需求跟随价格变化的原理,用户的用电数量不是确定不变的.本文借鉴经济学的有关理论,从用户调查入手,阐述了用电需求曲线的数学模型及其参数估计方法.在此基础上,分析了用户的电力需求弹性.特别针对电力企业广泛采用的增供促销措施进行了定量分析,发现这种措施在某些情况下可能失效,由此提出了基于用电需求曲线的区别定价方法,指导电力企业采取合理的价格营销策略.     

Forecasting Fossil Fuel Demand

The possibility of interfuel substitution in the generation of electrical energy exists. Given this fact, a demand model for various fossil fuels by electric utilities in the United States is developed. The results obtained using regional data suggest that the responsiveness of the demand for coal, residual fuel oil, distillate fuel oil, and natural gas by electric utilities to relative price changes is significant. In a forecasting setting, the demand model performs remarkably well when actual and forecast values for 1979 are compared.     

考虑多类型综合需求响应的电热耦合能源系统可靠性评估

随着城市电网中电热等多类型负荷的持续增长,为保证高负载率情况下的可靠性水平,需要通过电热等能源的综合需求响应提升系统的供能可靠性。为此,文章提出了一种考虑多类型综合需求响应的电热耦合能源系统可靠性评估方法。首先,分析了电热耦合能源系统的基本结构以及所研究的边界条件。其次,介绍了电热耦合系统中不同元件的出力模型与状态模型。然后,建立了基于电价与基于激励2种模式下的电热综合需求响应模型,并以此为基础提出了故障影响分析的方法以及可靠性评估的流程。最后,通过实际算例比较了不同综合需求响应方案下的可靠性指标与经济性水平,以指导电网公司进行最优综合需求响应方案的选择,从而证明了所提方法的有效性和实用性。     

考虑短期负荷影响的DeepESN电力市场实时电价预测研究

精准的电价预测有助于宏观调控的实施。但能源结构转型导致大规模可再生能源并网,因此会导致电价降低和产生波动,降低时序预测序列的相关性,加大实时电价的预测难度。针对这一问题,采用自相关函数和最大信息数计算电价自身和电价与电量关联性,为模型输入提供依据,并在此基础上应用具有深度储备池特性的深度回响网络进行实时电价预测。研究结果表明:电价与电量、电价自身具有较强相关性,应考虑自身与电量因素;深度回响网络能够显著提升预测模型的精度,并且具有较强的鲁棒性。     

Development of a hybrid model for electrical power spot prices

A great deal of interest has been paid to the market-based pricing of electrical power. Electrical power contracts often contain embedded options, the valuations of which require a stochastic model for electricity prices. Successful stochastic models exist for modeling price variations in traditional commodities. Electricity is critically different from these commodities as it is difficult to store and, on short time scales, its price is highly inelastic. This has important implications for stochastic spot price models of electricity. Several stochastic models of electricity spot prices already exist. In these random models, price returns play a dominant role. In this paper, we lead a guided tour through existing electricity price data to motivate a new stochastic electricity price model different in that it directly models price. We apply the new model to the problem of pricing options on electrical power and discuss these preliminary results     

从变压器经济运行分析现行电价制度的合理性

目前电价政策存在不合理之处，诱导用户在高负荷状态下运行，增加了变压器和电网的损耗，对配电变压器的经济运行极为不利。结合实例对现行两部制电价的合理性及存在的问题(即按照变压电容量计费)进行了深入的分析，提出了按照最大需量计费的调整建议。使电费与变压器容量不再发生联系，促使用户实行变压器经济运行，从而大幅度降低配电变压器年电能损耗，进而实现整个配电网络降损节能，为国家节约大量电能。     

现货市场环境下售电商激励型需求响应优化策略

需求响应是售电商应对现货市场风险的重要工具,但已有研究中的售电商均采取电价型需求响应策略,无法根据变化的实际情况灵活实施需求响应,缺乏关于激励型需求响应的深入研究。针对此,构建了单一售电商与多个用户之间的激励型需求响应主从博弈模型,其中售电商在现货市场电价高于售电价格的时段,制定需求响应补贴策略以减少其售电损失,而用户根据售电商制定的补贴价格决定相应时段的响应量以获取额外收益。通过分析给出了博弈模型的求解方法,算例表明,售电商及用户均可通过需求响应而获益。此外,文中分析了现货市场价格波动对售电商的补贴价格制定、用户响应量和各自需求响应收益的影响以及不同类型的用户加入需求响应项目时对售电商需求响应收益的影响。     

考虑电价不确定性的负荷价-量曲线聚合方法

随着电力市场的发展,需求侧逐渐参与电力市场报价。报价曲线需要反映需求侧的真实价格响应特征。然而,需求侧的负荷资源具有数量多、单个容量小的性质。大量用户聚合上报的价-量曲线尽量准确地反映需求侧特征,有利于售电侧准确掌握聚合用电特性,维护电力市场经济信号准确性。针对此,提出一种考虑电价不确定性的需求侧用户价-量曲线聚合方法,该方法可有效保留各负荷的价格响应特性,并为大量需求侧用户参与市场出清提供技术支撑。首先,该文考虑电价预测的不确定性,基于后验误差与核密度估计,建立适应多种电价预测模型的电价概率分布生成方法;在此基础上,提出需求侧用户价-量曲线的最优聚合模型,能在预测电价附近展现良好的聚合精度,且适用于不同出清模式的电力市场。针对所提模型具有的分段非线性特性,该文采用启发式算法-粒子群算法求解该模型。最后,基于真实电价数据验证了所提方法的有效性。     

公共楼宇群体价格型负荷响应的仿真分析方法研究

公共楼宇作为需求侧响应的主要参与者,因其复杂的响应机理而难以被电网公司、售电公司准确地调配使用。首先建立面向需求响应的楼宇照明系统、空调系统用户用电能耗模型;在此基础上,分别估算公共楼宇群体签订合同的人数和某次响应电价的整体功率;最后,在算例中对某一公共楼宇群体响应电价的曲线进行了仿真分析。结果表明,本文方法可以用于仿真公共楼宇群体响应价格型需求响应项目的特性。     

Evaluating demand side measures in simulation models for the power market

Increased energy efficiency is one of the pillars for reducing CO₂ emissions. However, in models for the electricity market like unit commitment and dispatch models, increased efficiency of demand results in a paradoxical apparent reduction of the total economic surplus. The reason is that these are partial models for the electricity market, which do not take into account the effect of the changes in other markets. This paper shows how the calculation of the consumer surplus in the electricity market should be corrected to take into account the effect in other markets. In different cases we study shifts in the demand curve that are caused by increased energy efficiency, reduced cost for substitutes to electricity and real-time monitoring of demand, and we derive the necessary correction. The correction can easily be included in existing simulation models, and makes it possible to assess the effect of changes in demand on economic surplus.     

电站空冷系统适宜性分析及型式选择

阐述了在电站空冷机组建设的前期工作中涉及到的国家政策、水源、自然环境等基本条件,进行了空冷系统的适宜性分析,结合场地条件、环保要求、机组安全运行要求、机组类型、电力负荷需求、燃煤价格、基建投资等不同工程技术条件,提出了空冷系统型式选择的建议。并在各种前提条件下,对于投资、煤耗等因素进行了分析和总结。     

关于南方电网西电东送输电电价形成机制的思考

当前南方电网西电东送单一制电量电价的计价形式不能客观反映西电东送的送电特性,按单条线路核定电价的方法已不适应主网架网络化的发展现状。基于此,对未来西电东送输电电价形成机制提出了建议,推荐由现行的单一制电量电价逐步过渡到两部制电价。根据容量电费的分摊方和分摊比例,采用最大负荷法设计了价格形成机制。