The accuracy of recidivism risk assessments for sexual offenders: A meta-analysis of 118 prediction studies.

This review compared the accuracy of various approaches to the prediction of recidivism among sexual offenders. On the basis of a meta-analysis of 536 findings drawn from 118 distinct samples (45,398 sexual offenders, 16 countries), empirically derived actuarial measures were more accurate than unstructured professional judgment for all outcomes (sexual, violent, or any recidivism). The accuracy of structured professional judgment was intermediate between the accuracy found for the actuarial measures and for unstructured professional judgment. The effect sizes for the actuarial measures were moderate to large by conventional standards (average d values of 0.67–0.97); however, the utility of the actuarial measures will vary according to the referral question and samples assessed. Further research should identify the psychologically meaningfully factors that contribute to risk for reoffending. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Underreporting of crime-related content and the prediction of criminal recidivism among violent offenders.

The aim of this study was threefold: (1) to examine offenders' underreporting of crime-related content, (2) examine explanations for underreporting, and (3) investigate if accounting for underreporting increases predictability of recidivism over a standardized risk assessment instrument. Participants consisted of 89 adult male offenders incarcerated for violent offenses. Analysis revealed that when relying on offenders' self-report of crime-related content, only 10% of information is lost because of underreporting. Correlation analyses indicated that underreporting was not explained by impression management, arrogant/deceitful interpersonal style, or number of past convictions. Finally, logistic and Poisson regression analyses indicated that accounting for underreporting in the prediction of recidivism did not increase predictive validity over a standardized risk assessment instrument. Implication of these results for offender assessment and criminal risk assessment are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Therapeutic responses of psychopathic sexual offenders: Treatment attrition, therapeutic change, and long-term recidivism.

The authors examined the therapeutic responses of psychopathic sex offenders (≥25 Psychopathy Checklist—Revised; PCL–R) in terms of treatment dropout and therapeutic change, as well as sexual and violent recidivism over a 10-year follow-up among 156 federally incarcerated sex offenders treated in a high-intensity inpatient sex offender program. Psychopathy and sex offender risk/treatment change were assessed using the PCL–R and the Violence Risk Scale—Sexual Offender version (VRS–SO), respectively. Although psychopathic participants were more likely than their nonpsychopathic counterparts (     

Predicting recidivism with the Personality Assessment Inventory in a sample of sex offenders screened for civil commitment as sexually violent predators.

We examined the ability of scores from the Personality Assessment Inventory (PAI; Morey, 1991) to predict postrelease (M = 4.90 years follow-up) arrests in a sample of 1,412 sex offenders. We focused on scores from 4 PAI measures conceptually relevant to offending, including the Antisocial Features (ANT), Aggression (AGG), and Dominance (DOM) scales, as well as the Violence Potential Index (VPI). Scores from several PAI measures demonstrated small- to medium-sized effects in predicting violent nonsexual recidivism, nonviolent recidivism, and sex offender registry violations, with the AGG scale being the strongest (d = 0.50 for violent nonsexual recidivism, d = 0.55 for sex offender registry violations) and most consistent predictor of recidivism. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

An examination of the Sex Offender Registration and Notification Act as applied to juveniles: Evaluating the ability to predict sexual recidivism.

The recently enacted Adam Walsh Child Protection and Safety Act will expand and standardize the registration of adolescent sex offenders. To evaluate the effectiveness of this and similar legislation, the authors assessed 91 juvenile males who had been adjudicated for a sexual felony offense and 174 juvenile males who had no history of sexual offending with several risk measures. On admission to treatment, all participants were assessed with the Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL:YV; A. E. Forth, D. Kosson, & R. D. Hare, 2003). The Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-II (J-SOAP-II; R. A. Prentky & S. Righthand, 2003), 3 state-developed risk protocols (from Wisconsin, Texas, and New Jersey), and the tier designation embedded in the federal Sex Offender Registration and Notification Act of 2006 (SORNA) were coded from the sex offender participants' records. Participants were followed for an average of 71.6 months (SD = 18.1 months) to determine charges for general, violent, and sexual offenses. Results showed inconsistencies in risk designations between the J-SOAP-II, SORNA tier, and state risk measures, and none, except for the PCL:YV, significantly predicted new general, violent, or sexual offense charges. Policy and legal implications concerning the assessment of adolescent sex offenders are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Treatment gain for sexual offenders against children predicts reduced recidivism: A comparative validity study.

Objective: To determine whether pro-social treatment change in sexual offenders would predict reductions in recidivism beyond static and dynamic risk factors measured at pretreatment and whether different methods for assessing change based on self-reports and structured clinical rating systems would show convergent validity. Method: We compared 3 methods for assessing treatment change with a sample of adult male sexual offenders against children (n = 218) who completed a prison-based cognitive–behavioral treatment program between 1993 and 2000. The methods were measures of change derived from offender self-reports on a psychometric battery administered both pre- and posttreatment, change across treatment on the Violence Risk Scale: Sexual Offender Version (VRS:SO; Olver, Wong, Nicholaichuk, & Gordon, 2007), and posttreatment ratings on the Standard Goal Attainment Scaling for Sex Offenders (SGAS; Hogue, 1994). Offenders were followed up for an average of 12.24 years after release. Results: All measures of treatment gain were positively correlated, and all significantly predicted reductions in sexual recidivism, with values for the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve ranging from .66 (SGAS) to .70 (VRS:SO). Survival analyses showed that measures of change based on the psychometric battery significantly predicted recidivism after controlling for both static and dynamic factors measured at pretreatment, while results for the VRS:SO were similar but failed to reach significance. Conclusions: Measures of treatment change based on offender self-reports and structured clinical rating systems show convergent and predictive validity, which suggests that effective treatment that targets dynamic risk factors leads to a reduction in sexual recidivism. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

Quantitative reanalysis of aggregate data on IQ in sexual offenders.

General intelligence has been the most commonly studied neuropsychological characteristic of sexual offenders for over 70 years. Results, however, have been highly inconsistent. To assess whether sexual offenders score lower in IQ than nonsexual offenders and to explore which sexual offense characteristics relate to IQ, the authors reanalyzed all reports providing sufficient information. Data spanned 236 samples, comprising 25,146 sexual offenders and controls. The literature contained sufficient information to permit comparison of adult versus juvenile sexual offenders, offenders targeting children versus adults, offenders targeting their own versus unrelated children, and offenders targeting boys versus girls. Results confirm the association between IQ and sexual offending and suggest that previous discrepancies are attributable to how many pedophilic individuals were in each sample. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Exploring differences in youth and parent reports of antisociality among adolescent sexual and nonsexual offenders.

This study examined the extent of, and explored several possible explanations for, the discrepancies found between adolescent and parent reports of conduct problems in adolescent sexual and nonsexual offenders. We found that adolescent sexual offenders scored lower on measures of conduct problems than did nonsexual offenders, whether on the basis of adolescent or parent report, though the difference was much larger for parent reports. Examining this discrepancy more closely, we found that parents of sexual offenders reported less antisocial behavior than did their sons, whereas parents of nonsexual offenders reported more antisocial behavior than did their sons. The same pattern of results was obtained for reports on impulsivity, but much less so with respect to antisocial personality traits such as narcissism and callousness. Measures of family functioning were generally not related to these parent–adolescent discrepancies in reports of conduct problems, but these discrepancies were positively correlated with parental reports of stress. The implications of these findings for the interpretation of research on adolescent sexual offenders and comparisons of sexual and nonsexual offenders are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

Relapse prevention, offense process models, and the treatment of sexual offenders.

Is the extraordinary popularity of relapse prevention with sex offender treatment providers justified? Introduced 20 years ago, relapse prevention dominates the field of sexual offending, despite its clear limitations. Two of its major legacies are scrutinized closely: the relapse model and the use of relapse prevention as a treatment framework. Despite its practical value, relapse prevention's widespread adoption has obscured its limitations as a model of the offense process and in treatment design. Recent research on sexual offense processes is reviewed, and the self-regulation model (Ward & Hudson, 2000) is examined for its ability to provide a more complete understanding of sex offenders' treatment needs. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Mediators of change for multisystemic therapy with juvenile sexual offenders.

The mediators of favorable multisystemic therapy (MST) outcomes achieved at 12 months postrecruitment were examined within the context of a randomized effectiveness trial with 127 juvenile sexual offenders and their caregivers. Outcome measures assessed youth delinquency, substance use, externalizing symptoms, and deviant sexual interest/risk behaviors; hypothesized mediators included measures of parenting and peer relations. Data were collected at pretreatment, 6 months postrecruitment, and 12 months postrecruitment. Consistent with the MST theory of change and the small extant literature in this area of research, analyses showed that favorable MST effects on youth antisocial behavior and deviant sexual interest/risk behaviors were mediated by increased caregiver follow-through on discipline practices as well as decreased caregiver disapproval of and concern about the youth’s bad friends during the follow-up. These findings have important implications for the community-based treatment of juvenile sexual offenders. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The Characteristics of Persistent Sexual Offenders: A Meta-Analysis of Recidivism Studies.

A meta-analysis of 82 recidivism studies (1,620 findings from 29,450 sexual offenders) identified deviant sexual preferences and antisocial orientation as the major predictors of sexual recidivism for both adult and adolescent sexual offenders. Antisocial orientation was the major predictor of violent recidivism and general (any) recidivism. The review also identified some dynamic risk factors that have the potential of being useful treatment targets (e.g., sexual preoccupations, general self-regulation problems). Many of the variables commonly addressed in sex offender treatment programs (e.g., psychological distress, denial of sex crime, victim empathy, stated motivation for treatment) had little or no relationship with sexual or violent recidivism. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Comparison and combination of clinical and statistical predictions of recidivism among adult offenders.

Clinical and statistical predictions of 6 categories of recidivism among 198 adult male felony probationers (average age 27.99 yrs) were compared and combined, both before and after correcting for the restricted range of the predictor variables. The statistical composite consistently outperformed decision makers for the undifferentiated recidivism criteria of arrest and conviction. The opposite state of affairs was observed to exist for all 3 indices of violent recidivism but only after correction for restriction of range. The combination of both variables tended not to produce significant increases in criterion variance compared to the superior predictor alone, the major exception being incarceration for any offense. Decision makers performed best when forecasting violent criminal conduct that resulted in incarceration, and this contingency table was subjected to a detailed analysis of the outcomes of prediction. This included 2 methods of estimating the probable probationary performance of 141 members of the initial sample who were sentenced to prison, and consideration of the utilities associated with false positive and false negative errors. Partially because of the seeming impossibility of achieving perfect prediction, it is concluded that there is a need for decision-making guidelines that include only those criminological variables that can serve the dual purpose of predicting recidivism and indicating which offenders are the most deserving of imprisonment as punishment. (19 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version and adolescent and adult recidivism: Considerations with respect to gender, ethnicity, and age.

The present study investigated the predictive accuracy of the Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL: YV; A. E. Forth, D. S. Kosson, & R. D. Hare, 2003) for youth and adult recidivism, with respect to gender, ethnicity, and age, in a sample of 161 Canadian young offenders who received psychological services from an outpatient mental health facility. The PCL: YV significantly predicted any general, nonviolent, and violent recidivism in the aggregate sample over a 7-year follow-up; however, when results were disaggregated by youth and adult outcomes, the PCL: YV consistently appeared to be a stronger predictor of youth recidivism. The PCL: YV predicted youth recidivism for subsamples of female and Aboriginal youths, and very few differences in the predictive accuracy of the tool were observed for younger vs. older adolescent groups. Both the 13-item (i.e., D. J. Cooke & C. Michie, 2001, 3-factor) and the 20-item (i.e., R. D. Hare, 2003, 4-factor) models appeared to predict various recidivism criteria comparably across the aggregate sample and within specific demographic subgroups (e.g., female and Aboriginal youth). The Antisocial facet contributed the most variance in the prediction of adult outcomes, whereas the 3-factor model contributed significant incremental variance in the prediction of youth recidivism outcomes. Potential implications concerning the use of the PCL: YV in clinical and forensic assessment contexts are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

A Multisite Comparison of Actuarial Risk Instruments for Sex Offenders.

Four actuarial instruments for the prediction of violent and sexual reoffending (the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide [VRAG], Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide [SORAG], Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offender Recidivism [RRASOR], and Static-99) were evaluated in 4 samples of sex offenders (N = 396). Although all 4 instruments predicted violent (including sexual) recidivism and recidivism known to be sexually motivated, areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) were consistently higher for the VRAG and the SORAG. The instruments performed better when there were fewer missing items and follow-up time was fixed, with an ROC area up to .84 for the VRAG, for example, under such favorable conditions. Predictive accuracy was higher for child molesters than for rapists, especially for the Static-99 and the RRASOR. Consistent with past research, survival analyses revealed that those offenders high in both psychopathy and sexual deviance were an especially high-risk group. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Federal standards for community registration of juvenile sex offenders: An evaluation of risk prediction and future implications.

The enactment of the Adam Walsh Child Protection and Safety Act in 2006 is an extension of current protective legislation aimed at establishing stricter sanctions for community-released sexual offenders. What largely separates the Adam Walsh Act from previous registration and notification laws is the crossing of traditional jurisdictional boundaries between adult and juvenile courts at the federal level. This article addresses several key concerns relating to the application of these federal standards to adolescent offenders. In addition to a review of the extant literature, we present findings from an exploratory evaluation that examines the ability of the Adam Walsh Act's classification system to predict future offending among a sample of 112 adjudicated juvenile sex offenders over a 2-year outcome period. Results indicate that offenders who met criteria for registration did not reoffend (sexually or nonsexually) at a significantly higher rate than those who did not meet registration criteria. Implications regarding appropriate risk assessment and management of youth sexual offenders are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved)     

A meta-analysis of predictors of offender treatment attrition and its relationship to recidivism.

Objective: The failure of offenders to complete psychological treatment can pose significant concerns, including increased risk for recidivism. Although a large literature identifying predictors of offender treatment attrition has accumulated, there has yet to be a comprehensive quantitative review. Method: A meta-analysis of the offender treatment literature was conducted to identify predictors of offender treatment attrition and examine its relationship to recidivism. The review covered 114 studies representing 41,438 offenders. Sex offender and domestic violence programs were also examined separately given their large independent literatures. Results: The overall attrition rate was 27.1% across all programs (k = 96), 27.6% from sex offender programs (k = 34), and 37.8% from domestic violence programs (k = 35). Rates increased when preprogram attrition was considered. Significant predictors included demographic characteristics (e.g., age, rw = ?.10), criminal history and personality variables (e.g., prior offenses, rw = .14; antisocial personality, rw = .14), psychological concerns (e.g., intelligence, rw = ?.14), risk assessment measures (e.g., Statistical Information on Recidivism scale, rw =.18), and treatment-related attitudes and behaviors (e.g., motivation, rw = ?.13). Results indicated that treatment noncompleters were higher risk offenders and attrition from all programs significantly predicted several recidivism outcomes ranging from rw = .08 to .23. Conclusions: The clients who stand to benefit the most from treatment (i.e., high-risk, high-needs) are the least likely to complete it. Offender treatment attrition can be managed and clients can be retained through an awareness of, and attention to, key predictors of attrition and adherence to responsivity considerations. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Multidimensional assessment of criminal recidivism: Problems, pitfalls, and proposed solutions.

All states have statutes in place to civilly commit individuals at high risk for violence. The authors address difficulties in assessing such risk but use as an example the task of predicting sexual violence recidivism; the principles espoused here generalize to predicting all violence. As part of the commitment process, mental health professionals, who are often psychologists, evaluate an individual's risk of sexual recidivism. It is common for professionals conducting these risk assessments to use several actuarial risk prediction instruments (i.e., psychological tests). These tests rarely demonstrate close agreement in the risk figures they provide. Serious epistemological and psychometric problems in the multivariate assessment of recidivism risk are pointed out. Sound psychometric, or in some cases heuristic, solutions to these problems are proffered, in the hope of improving clinical practice. The authors focus on how to make these tests' outputs commensurable and discuss various ways to combine them in coherent, justifiable fashions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Behavioral evidence of prolonged interhemispheric transfer time among psychopathic offenders.

Several lines of evidence suggest the possibility of abnormal interhemispheric communication in psychopathy, but there have been few direct empirical studies. To address this gap in the literature, the authors examined one important aspect of interhemispheric communication, the efficiency with which information is transferred across the corpus callosum. Using A. T. Poffenberger's (1912) paradigm for estimating interhemispheric transfer time (IHTT) from simple motor responses to lateralized stimuli, the authors found a substantially prolonged IHTT among psychopathic criminals relative to nonpsychopathic criminals. This prolonged IHTT was somewhat more pronounced when participants were using their right hand to respond. This study provides initial behavioral evidence of slowed interhemispheric transfer in psychopathy. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Risk assessment of sex offenders.

What is needed to carry out a thorough risk assessment of an ex-offender? This article describes four major components: (a) a functional analysis of the offense process in order to determine how the offenders' problems contributed to their offending and to identify the modus operandi used in their offense(s); (b) the application of a suitable actuarial risk predictor to assess the offender's global level of risk; (c) identification of stable dynamic risk factors that make potential treatment targets; and (d) monitoring of acute dynamic factors that indicate offending is imminent. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth as a predictor of recidivism in a United Kingdom cohort of adolescent offenders with conduct disorder.

This prospective study examined the predictive validity of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) and the Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL: YV) in 99 male adolescents who were assessed in custody and followed up 12 months post release. Outcome data on recidivism were based on official Home Office records. The base rates for violent and general recidivism, respectively, were 38.4% and 70.7%. The predictive validity of the SAVRY Risk Total and the SAVRY Risk Rating was moderate for both violent and general recidivism, but both showed incremental validity in predicting outcomes compared with the PCL: YV. Data are discussed in relation to the limited published international literature. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)