Future export market for dairy commodities, with emphasis on skimmed milk powder

Figures are given for the EEC and world production and markets for butter and skimmed milk powder. However, in the final analysis the world market is unquantifiable as it depends on the ability of importing countries to pay and the incentives offered by exporting countries. The factors controlling price, within and outside the EEC, and the effects of exporters' credit policies are discussed. The UK can at times have an advantage through movements in the value of sterling against other currencies. However, in the foreseeable future export prices will continue to be artificially determined through government subsidies, although some firming of prices is likely because of restrictions on milk production in the EEC and probably in the USA.     

TRENDS IN SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR MILK AND DAIRY PRODUCTS IN THE UK

The paper examines the changes in yields and dairy cow numbers in recent years and considers the likely economic prospects for investment in modern dairy units. With full Community prices applied in the UK at a realistic rate of exchange, dairying would be very profitable. In spite of the setback between 1973 and 1975 the milk output objective of the Government's White Paper 'Food from Our Own Resources' should be reached in the first half of the 1980s. Liquid milk consumption will be fairly stable in the future, but with the higher prices under the Community régime the butter market will contract. A modest increase in cheese consumption will continue. Higher milk production in the UK and a reduced market will increase self-sufficiency. In spite of the European surplus in the dairy sector the competitive strength of the UK industry at Community prices is substantial and it is economically right for it to expand.     

Subject: Dairy technology - influences and constraints: The government view

The constraints on the dairy industry which are the concern of government are, from within the UK, the milk marketing system with its maximum milk prices and, from without, the limitations set by the EEC. The attempts of the EEC through the Common Agricultural Policy to control milk supplies by various financial schemes are of great importance to the industry. In particular, a restriction on support prices seems to be necessary to bring milk production more into line with demand.     

The dairy industry as seen from Europe

The place of milk and milk products within the Common Agricultural Policy of the EEC is considered. An assessment is Raven of the likely future position of the UK dairy industry, as seen by someone costly involved with EEC policy as a Whole     

Experiences and views from a non-EEC country

The problems of the Swedish dairy industry are compared with those of the EEC. In spite of a government subsidy on fluid milk, there is a continuing slight decrease in milk consumption. Present overproduction is about 8%. To reduce this, a two price system of payment will be introduced in 1985, combined with a retirement scheme for milk producers. Development of new products, some of which have been taken up outside Sweden, have helped to maintain consumption. Problems exist with imports of cheese, milk powders and fruit yogurts from the EEC and with exports in competition with the EEC. Some observations are made on the situations of Norway and Finland.     

THE EFFECT OF EEC REGULATIONS ON THE MARKETING OF MILK AND MILK PRODUCTS IN THE UK

The effect on the dairy industry of membership of the EEC and the distinction between its regulations and directives as set out in the Treaty of Rome are described. Over 3,000 regulations were issued in 1974, 250 of which dealt with milk and dairy products and a list of the main regulations is given in an appendix. The advantages of price reviews more than once a year and possible seasonal milk pricing are discussed. The marketing field is described and the need for products with the greatest earning potential stressed. Developments in liquid milk markets are shown and their importance in the United Kingdom emphasized. Possible standardization in the liquid milk market, and the difficulties involved in the operation of milk marketing boards is considered. {Editor's summary).     

WORLD MARKET AVAILABILITY AND REQUIREMENTS

World trends in milk products and the present increase in milk yield with the availability of food supplies and nutrition in both developed and developing countries are evaluated. The problems of price setting, and price fluctuation in a world market are shown and the need for stable prices recognized. The necessity for technological expertise in dairy processing and quality standards for dairy products shows an essential aspect of future development.     

Economic Issues and Implications of a United States Milk Quota Program

Interest in adoption of a national mandatory milk quota program has grown considerably in the last 2 yr primarily due to mounting dairy surpluses and burgeoning costs of the dairy price support program. If this type of program were to be adopted, all segments of the dairy industry would be affected. This article examines the potential economic issues and implications of such programs on current and future generations of dairy farmers, milk handlers, government, and consumers. In part, it is argued that a national mandatory milk quota program would most likely raise farm milk prices, reduce milk surpluses, provide windfall gains to current producers, reduce government budgetary costs, increase retail prices for consumers of dairy products, increase costs of production, encourage the use of substitutes for dairy products, and slow adoption of new technologies by farmers. Although the political climate in Congress and the Administration is not very receptive, support for these programs has grown during the past year among farmers and the dairy lobby. At the very least, there undoubtedly will be political pressure for a national mandatory milk quota program in the near future.     

HEALTH AND HYGIENE STANDARDS IN THE EEC

The paper is concentrated principally on animal health standards in EEC countries and the draft regulations as they may affect the dairy farmers in the United Kingdom. Reference is made to the more important cattle diseases such as tuberculosis, brucellosis and salmonellosis, also mastitis, foot-and-mouth disease and progress in eradication detailed with comparisons between the UK and other EEC countries. The three main proposals for EEC regulations as they affect the production and marketing of milk for the liquid market are outlined and the various requirements for hygienic conditions in the production of milk as set out in five chapters are given in detail.     

Reviewing the dairy situation

The world, EEC and UK dairy situations are briefly reviewed. The UK is unusual in the EEC in not being self sufficient in milk supplies yet still selling substantial amounts of product into intervention: nearly 50% of UK butter is sold to intervention, a larger proportion than that of any other EEC country. Increased concentration on new added-value products is essential.     

Can the industry in the EEC meet the consumers' requirements?

Security of supply quality and price and the contribution made by milk and dairy products in the nutritional quality of the national diet are discussed and the importance of keeping over-productivity of milk in perspective is stressed. The position of the UK markets and the rapid rise in consumer prices of milk during recent years, together with the effect of inflation, is considered. The health of the dairy cow and the improved hygienic quality of raw material is reviewed showing considerable improvement over a number of years. The need for innovation and the future development in convenience foods is emphasized.     

THE COMPETITIVE POSITION OF THE UK DAIRY INDUSTRY IN EUROPE

The importance of equality between EEC countries to provide for fair competition is emphasized and the gap between UK and other Community producers in costs and returns examined. Comparisons are made of climatic conditions, herd size, genetic quality of the dairy herd, utilization of artificial insemination for breeding, yields achieved/cow and the provision of dairy husbandry services, such as herd yield prediction from computerized records. The need for improvements in animal health in the UK, particularly eliminating brucellosis and controlling mastitis, is stressed. Transport and bulk collection of milk, standardization, retail distribution and the economics of processing and manufacturing are discussed. Tables indicate the level and trends in consumption of milk and dairy products, which are more encouraging in the UK than elsewhere in the Community. The need to improve the application of basis research findings is mentioned, as is the desirability of closer links between the industry and the Ministry. The author concludes that the UK industry has a competitive advantage that all involved in it should strive to maintain.     

Impacts of the Doha Round framework agreements on dairy policies

Dairy is highly regulated in many countries for several reasons. Perishability, seasonal imbalances, and inelastic supply and demand for milk can cause inherent market instability. Milk buyers typically have had more market power than dairy farmers. Comparative production advantages in some countries have led to regulations and policies to protect local dairy farmers by maintaining domestic prices higher than world prices. A worldwide consensus on reduction of border measures for protecting dairy products is unlikely, and dairy will probably be an exception in ongoing World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations. Under the Doha Round framework agreements, countries may name some products such as dairy as "sensitive," thereby excluding them from further reforms. However, new Doha Round framework agreements depart from the current WTO rule and call for product-specific spending caps. Such caps will greatly affect the dairy sector because dairy accounts for much of the aggregate measure of support (AMS) in several countries, including the United States and Canada. Also, the amounts of dairy AMS in several countries may be recalculated relative to an international reference price. In addition, all export subsidies are targeted for elimination in the Doha Round, including export credit programs and state trading enterprises, which will limit options for disposing of surplus dairy products in foreign markets. Currently, with higher domestic prices, measures for cutting or disposing of surpluses have been used in many countries. Supply control, which is not regulated by WTO rules, remains as an option. Although explicit export subsidies are restricted by WTO rules, many countries use esoteric measures to promote dairy exports. If countries agree to eliminate "consumer financed" export subsidies using a theoretical definition and measurements proposed herein as Export Subsidy Equivalents (ESE), dairy exports in many countries may be affected. Although domestic supports and export subsidies will be reduced in the Doha Round, possible exclusion of "sensitive" products from tariff reduction will help some countries' dairy sectors survive after those final agreements. A key concern for those countries will be the simultaneous restriction of surplus-disposing measures. With fewer marketing options for surpluses, countries that continue border protection and high internal prices will likely be forced to use domestic supply control programs in the future.     

奶源价格下跌背景下中国乳企面临的营销风险分析

在国际国内奶源价格下跌的背景下,中国乳企将面临国内奶源缺失、库存爆仓、产品结构不合理、市场竞争进一步加剧和价格战等一系列营销风险。为了确保中国乳业的健康发展,在提高中国乳企自身营销风险防范意识的同时,中国政府和有关方面也应该发挥积极的作用;要在重视国内奶源基地建设的同时,建立乳企和奶农的长效利益机制;在适当限制进口奶粉数量的同时,积极扩大国内市场的乳品消费;在大力加强乳品消费教育的同时合理调整乳品消费结构,通过积极推进乳业兼并重组和乳业转型升级。不断提高中国乳企自身的经营管理水平,从而有效化解奶源价格下跌背景下中国乳企面临的营销风险。     

我国奶业发展状况与对策分析

<正> 当前,我国奶业经过连续多年高速增长后,正处于转型的关键时期。因此,深入分析我国奶业的发展形势,把握其正确的发展方向,事关整个奶业产业的生存与发展。我国奶业发展的主要特点(一)原料奶生产能力显著增强我国奶业经过10多年的超常规发展,目前已成为仅次于印     

八问乳品行业发展

<正> 近年来,我国乳业一直保持两位数的增长速度。20HD6年全国奶类总产量达3302万吨,已超过俄罗斯、巴基斯坦,仅次于印度和美国位居世界第三位。乳品加工已成为食品工业中发展最快的行业。分析当前乳业发展现状,我认为可以用几个"从未有"加以概括。一是党和国家领导对乳业发展从未有像现在这样重视。近年来,党中央、国务院领导高度重视乳业发展,胡锦涛总书记、温家宝总理、回良玉副总理分别从喝奶的重要意义、发展乳业的重要性及怎样发展乳业几个方面     

ANIMAL HEALTH

Many of the classical infectious diseases of dairy cattle are no longer present in this country and others are in the process of eradication. Tuberculosis is almost eradicated, although small pockets of infection persist, and considerable progress is being made on brucellosis where infection has been reduced from 28-5 per cent of dairy herds in England and Wales in 1971 to 15-6 per cent four years later. The main disease of dairy cattle which is of economic importance to the milk processing industry is the mastitis complex and in particular subclinical mastitis. This reduces yields and effects milk quality; due mainly to the latter there are now draft EEC regulations for the production of milk for the liquid market which designate a maximum cell content. The past year has seen a very large reduction in the national mastitic cell count, probably for reasons more directly connected with financial factors such as the price of cull cows, and this stood at 508,000 cells/ml in December 1975.     

国际奶业市场的最新动态与趋势

近期,在南京举办的"第五界中国国际奶业展览会及高层论坛"中,恒天然商贸(上海)有限公司中国商务发展部总经理郭学研先生为大会做了题为"变化中的世界奶业市场——过去、现在和将来"的报告,具体分析了国际奶业市场的最新动态与趋势。郭先生从需求和供应两个基本方面着手分析,具体涉及到了消费水平、产品结构、气候变化、饲料价格、出口补贴和征税以及汇率等多方面的影响。     

THE EFFECTS ON THE UK DAIRY INDUSTRY OF FULL INTEGRATION INTO EUROPE, AND SOME SPECULATION ON WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS IN STORE

The changes in the policies of the EEC and their effect on the UK dairy industry during the last five years are outlined, showing the increased advantages to the milk producers in Great Britain. The role of the Milk Marketing Boards in relationship to the Community is reviewed with the need for health regulations stressed. The importance is shown of maintaining liquid milk distribution with its market value to the producers. The Common Agricultural Policy and its future is discussed showing possible favourable prospects for the British Farmer.     

The future for milk products in the EEC

The future of milk products must be set against a static European population of increasing age, already generally overfed, and a greater public emphasis on health aspects of foods. Patterns of consumption in the main countries of the EEC are examined with particular reference to the German market. It is suggested that dairy products can expand their share of the market only by replacing other foods, and that this might best be done not by the marketing of mass products but by introducing variety and segmentation of products.