省级区域中长期能源供应保障与清洁化研究方法及应用

资源环境约束已成为制约能源发展的重要因素。受地区间经济增长方式与速度、能源消费结构与水平、资源禀赋以及环境承载力等差异影响,为保证经济社会发展目标的顺利实现,迫切需要对省级区域能源需求与清洁化发展形势开展深入研究。基于LEAP模型,将地区经济社会发展与大气污染防治结合,构建了一套针对省级区域开展中长期能源供应保障与清洁化研究的方法体系,并应用到安徽省中长期能源发展思路研究中,建议安徽地区拓展煤炭输入渠道、积极发展本地可再生能源、加强电网建设增强区外受电能力、积极推进电能替代强化节能减排,以保证能源供应和提高消费清洁化水平,实现经济社会的可持续发展。     

《可再生能源中长期发展规划》概要

为了加快可再生能源发展,促进节能减排,积极应对气候变化,更好地满足经济和社会可持续发展的需要,在总结我国可再生能源资源、技术及产业发展状况,借鉴国际可再生能源发展经验基础上,国家发改委研究制定了《可再生能源中长期发展规划》,提出了从现在到2020年期间我国可再生能源发展的指导思想、主要任务、发展目标、重点领域和保障措施,以指导我国可再生能源发展和项目建设。规划全文概要如下:     

可再生能源发展“十二五”规划发布

<正>2012年8月6日,国家能源局在北京召开了可再生能源发展"十二五"规划实施工作座谈会。会议讨论了可再生能源发展"十二五"规划的重要任务、规划实施思路以及规划实施的政策和保障措施。国家能源局、部分省(区、市)发展改革委(能源局)、主要能源企业以及相关行业协会参加了会议。国家能源局新能源司司长王骏出席并发言。近年来,可再生能源日益受到世界各国的重视,成为新一轮能源变革的核心内容。我国高度重视可再生能源发展,以《可再生能源法》为基础,制定了一系列支持可再生能源发展的政策,推动可再生能     

“十二五”规划为可再生能源快速发展定调

<正>受国内外万众瞩目的《可再生能源发展"十二五"规划》近日出台,由此我国可再生能源利用进入了快速发展的新时期。《规划》指出,到2015年全部可再生能源的年利用量将达到4.78亿吨标准煤,其中商品可再生能源利用量达4亿吨标准煤,在能源消费中的比重达到9.5%以上。可再生能源发电在电力体系中上升为重要电源。十二五时期,可再生能源新增发电装机1.6亿千瓦,其中常规水电6100万千瓦,风电7000万千瓦,太阳能发电2000万千     

国家发展改革委制定《可再生能源发展“十一五”规划》

根据《可再生能源中长期发展规划》的总体要求和我国可再生能源发展的最新进展,国家发展改革委对“十一五”时期部分可再生能源的发展目标和发展重点进行了调整,组织制定了《可再生能源发展“十一五”规划》,己于2008年3月公布。     

国内可再生能源新闻

综合类 发改委公布<可再生能源发展"十一五"规划> 国家发展和改革委员会3月18日发布的<可再生能源发展"十一五"规划>提出,到2010年,我国可再生能源在能源消费中的比重将达到10%,全国可再生能源年利用量达到3亿吨标准煤,比2005年增长近1倍.     

国家发展改革委副主任陈德铭就《可再生能源中长期发展规划》有关问题答记者问

问:国家已制定了能源发展"十一五"规划,请问为什么又要单独针对可再生能源颁布一个中长期规划? 答:制定《可再生能源中长期发展规划》对我国的未来非常重要.     

探讨战略定位促进永续发展——第十六次中国科协论坛侧记

能源与环境危机促进可再生能源开发利用在全世界日益蓬勃发展,发展作为新兴产业的可再生能源是保障我国能源安全和实现温室气体减排的重要内容.“十二五”期间,需要针对新的能源发展形势,分析我国可再生能源发展的现状和趋势,探讨政府有关可再生能源的支持政策和发展规划,科学制定中国可再生能源发展规划和路线图以促进产业快速健康发展,为社会永续发展奠定基础.     

《可再生能源发展“十一五”规划》发布

国家发展和改革委员会日前发布的《可再生能源发展“十一五”规划》提出,到2010年,我国可再生能源在能源消费中的比重将达到10％,全国可再生能源年利用量达到3亿t标准煤,比2005年增长近1倍。《规划》认为,加快发展水电、生物质能、风电和太阳能,提高可再生能源在能源结构中的比重,     

可以作为我国配额制制度基础的文件

正我国在设计配额制时可以参考国际上的一般做法,但同时应体现自己的国情特点。目前可作为我国配额制制度基础的文件包括《可再生能源法》及修正案、《可再生能源中长期发展规划》、《关于加快培育和发展战略性新兴产业的决定》等。此外,《可再生能源发展"十二五"规划》明确提出要实施可再生能源配额制度。《可再生能源发展"十三五"规划》提出四项保障     

Proposal for a combined methodology for renewable energy planning. Application to a Spanish region

The article here presented aims to contribute to renewable energies development at regional level, proposing a methodology for the establishment of strategies needed to reach, in the long term, an energy system more sustainable and mainly based upon autochthonous resources.Current energy planning models are investigated, analysing its convenience to design a sustainable energy system, and a new methodology, that combines three different approaches, is proposed. Such new “hybrid” methodology resumes advantages of territorial strategic planning methods, based upon SWOT analysis, along with characteristics extracted both from Multicriteria decision analysis techniques and expert opinion “Delphi” methods.Nowadays, decisions concerning energy system cannot be consider under one specific criterion. Different implications, energetic, environmental or socioeconomic, derived from changes on energy development make it unavoidable to use tools and techniques that could take into account such multiplicity. It has been also intended to take advantage of the know-how acquired along the territorial strategic planning process carried out in the region to analyse, from year 1997 to 2000. This approach has allowed to integrate, under a unique methodology, tools from energy planning with those one used, and successfully tested, for the elaboration of the strategic plan for Jaén Province.The proposed methodology has been applied to Jaén Province in order to design a renewable energy plan for the region, setting strategic action lines and fixing strategic goals to be met on year 2010 by the provincial energy system. The objective regarding electricity production from renewable resources, on year 2010, is fixed above 1630 GWh, which represents a 43% of the total foreseeable electricity consumption. Overall contribution of renewable sources in provincial energy system is finally set to 28.3%, in terms of final energy.     

Regional energy planning through SWOT analysis and strategic planning tools.: Impact on renewables development

Strategic planning processes, which are commonly used as a tool for region development and territorial structuring, can be harnessed by politicians and public administrations, at the local level, to redesign the regional energy system and encourage renewable energy development and environmental preservation. In this sense, the province of Jaén, a southern Spanish region whose economy is mainly based on olive agriculture, has carried out its strategic plan aiming at a major socioeconomic development. Under the leadership of the provincial government and the University of Jaén, main provincial institutions joined to propose the elaboration of a participatory strategic plan for the whole province. Here, the elaboration of the energy part of the plan, which was directly focused on the exploitation of renewable resources, mainly solar and biomass energy, and which highlights the effectiveness of techniques from business management applied to a sustainable energy model design is presented. Renewable Energy development during the first years of plan execution is presented, and the impact of additional issues is discussed. It is concluded that, although multicriteria decision-making technologies (MCDA) are extensively used in energy planning, a different approach can be utilized to incorporate techniques from strategic analysis. Furthermore, SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis has proved to be an effective tool and has constituted a suitable baseline to diagnose current problems and to sketch future action lines.     

一种基于可再生能源潜力和能源消费的目标分解模型

为了解决国家可再生能源规划与省域可再生能源规划相衔接的问题,结合中国实际,提出一种基于可再生能源潜力和能源消费的目标分解模型,考虑了现状、资源及消费情况,把目标分为基本份额、固定份额和浮动份额3部分。模型给出了一个协调因子的确定方法,决策者可以根据实际需要,确定其资源潜力和能源消费的比重关系。以北京和福建为例,给出了协调因子变化时,可再生能源份额的变化情况。为了验证该模型的正确性,结合国家可再生能源整体规划和资源需求分布状况,提出了各省域的可再生能源中长期目标。     

Why invest in wind energy? Career incentives and Chinese renewable energy politics

We study wind development at the provincial level in China, modelling installed wind capacities as a function of both economics and politics. We assume that the top provincial officials desire to maximize their chances of promotion under the Chinese cadre evaluation system. We expect that those with the strongest incentives to perform in order to achieve promotion would work harder to comply with the central government’s policy agenda to promote renewable energy. Collecting and testing data on provincial leaders’ characteristics, we find that provinces governed by party secretaries who were approaching the age of 65 are associated with significantly higher level of wind installed capacities. This result supports the political tournaments theory of Chinese politics. We also find that better educated party secretaries are likely to be more supportive of renewable energy, implying that education acts to encourage provincial leaders to support the central government’s policy.     

现货市场新能源参与方式及其对市场出清价格的影响分析

在我国新一轮电力市场改革背景下,电力现货市场建设进程进一步加快.随着新能源装机的快速增长,将会对电力现货市场竞价交易带来很大影响.基于我国试点运行的现货交易机制,对现行几种新能源参与市场模式进行了分析并提出了适用于新能源快速发展阶段的市场参与机制.建立了包含新能源参与的省级日前市场机组组合模型和实时市场安全经济调度模型...     

加快我国可再生能源数据信息平台建设

有效的可再生能源数据信息平台是进行新能源发展战略制定、规划、决策的基础.相比可再生能源的迅速发展,我国可再生能源信息收集和统计工作相对滞后,并缺乏一个集中的信息发布和共享服务平台.我国迫切需要建立和完善可再生能源信息收集平台,构建基于系统科学的数据信息分析系统.美国能源信息署(EIA)、美国可再生能源实验室(REL)、丹麦可再生能源实验室(Risoe)、国际能源署(IEA)、亚太经合组织(APEC)在能源和可再生能源数据信息平台建设方面积累了丰富的经验,代表了国际先进水平,可为我国可再生能源数据信息平台的建设提供重要的参考与借鉴.它们的经验包括人财物组织、数据收集方式、数据管理、数据监测、数据分析等方面.为加快我国可再生能源数据信息平台建设、建议有关部门应做好以下几项工作:加大对国家可再生能源数据信息平台建设的支持力度:加强国际交流合作,充分利用各国和有关国际组织的研究成果;严格数据定义,统一数据标准;建立高质量的数据收集体系;建立数据核查与评价机制;建立可再生能源数据信息平台标准手册制度;实现数据信息平台建设和运营管理的“天缝”衔接.     

Does electricity price matter for innovation in renewable energy technologies in China?

Though the development of renewable energy is rapid, innovation in renewable energy technologies is relatively weak due to the late commencement of renewable energy in China. In addition, renewable energy is mainly introduced into the supply mix of electricity generation, which increases the costs of electricity generation. Higher electricity price will make renewable energy more competitive and call forth renewable energy technological innovation. Based on FMOLS and DOLS models, as well as PMG model, this paper investigates the induced long and short run effects of electricity price, funding support, and economic growth on innovation in renewable energy technologies at the provincial level in China during the period 2006–2016. The Conclusions drawn were: (1) R&D expenditure and economic growth have positive impacts on innovation in renewable energy technologies in the long and short run; (2) Electricity price only has a long run effect on patenting in renewable energy technologies; (3) In the long run, a 1% increase in electricity price can lead to a 0.7825%–1.0952% increase in the patent counts of renewable energy technologies; (4) Electricity pricing system in China does not play any role in driving renewable energy technological innovation in the short run.     

考虑调峰调频双重约束的储能规划方法研究

  目的  在新型电力系统的构建进程中,新能源将保持高速发展态势。风、光等新能源大规模并网,其出力的随机性和波动性将给电力系统安全经济运行带来挑战。新型储能由于其具备快速的响应能力和削峰填谷的功效,再加上成本的逐步下降,未来将是电力系统不可或缺的灵活调节资源。  方法  储能容量规划是电力系统全局性问题,通过分析新能源消纳率和调频充裕度,从系统调峰和调频两个方面,以系统总成本最低为目标提出了省级电网储能规模分析方法。  结果  文章以省级电网实际参数为例,采用时序生产模拟软件分析了电源开机方式,对比了不同储能规模对全社会经济性的影响。  结论  结果表明,合适的储能规模可在提高新能源消纳的同时降低全社会成本,该方法的有效性得到了验证,可为实际应用提供指导。     

考虑新能源多时间尺度不确定性的低碳电源规划方法

随着低碳电力的发展,低碳经济已成为大势所趋.合理的低碳电源规划对于碳减排和低碳经济至关重要.本文提出了一种考虑新能源多时间尺度不确定性的双层低碳电源规划方法.首先,基于Copula函数和新能源出力概率分布生成考虑多时间尺度随机性的新能源出力序列;进一步,建立了考虑碳交易和碳捕集技术的双层电源规划模型.其中,上层模型为考...     

Barriers and opportunities of using the clean development mechanism to advance renewable energy development in China

Studying the barriers and opportunities of using clean development mechanism (CDM) to advance renewable energy deployment in China has a practical significance to achieve its ambitious renewable energy plan which affects the global efforts to curb carbon emission. This paper analyses the role of CDM in promoting renewable energy development in China by reviewing the CDM activities, especially renewable energy CDM activities in China. There are three barriers to utilizing CDM for renewable energy deployment, namely the dilemma of additionality, lower proportional certified emission reduction credit revenues on the investment, and the lack of incentive for technology transfer. Whereas the opportunities of using CDM in promoting renewable energy development include the international carbon market redirection to renewable energy, Chinese renewable energy boom driven by a series of effective energy policies, and additional finance from CDM supporting Chinese renewable energy development. Based on the study on the barriers and opportunities, the article considers that CDM is an indispensable incentive and a viable choice to promote renewable energy deployment in China.