核电厂主控室火灾场景分析及风险评价

主控室是核电厂火灾概率安全评价的主要关注对象之一。本文对典型核电厂的主控室火灾场景进行分析并对由其导致的反应堆堆芯损坏频率进行计算评价,主要使用事件树方法演绎火灾场景,通过火灾模拟计算确定火灾场景的危害,最后在电厂内部事件一级PSA模型的基础上建立火灾风险评价模型,完成主控室火灾风险定量化。火灾演绎分析结果获得了4个火灾场景,分别能够导致不同的电厂始发事件,并对相关的操纵员动作产生较大影响。风险定量化结果表明:主控室火灾导致的堆芯损坏频率为1.953×10~(-9)/堆年。     

俄罗斯完全可将火灾风险控制在西方标准范围内

【美国《核子周刊》 1998年 4月 2 3日报道】　建筑设计“原子能项目”官员在欧洲核学会在巴伦西亚举行的最高等级安全会议上发表文章说 ,俄罗斯设计的 WWER- 10 0 0 /32 0由火灾导致堆芯损坏的风险几率估计为1.5× 10 -5/堆年。文章说 ,火灾引起的堆芯损坏的频度使WWER- 10 0 0 / 32 0完全处于西方核电厂的安全范围内 ,但在巴拉科沃 - 4所做的火灾概率风险评价 (PRA) ,由于缺少辅助性的热工 -水力学分析 ,而没有将某些火灾隐患包括在内。PRA所用的火灾频度是根据 WWER核电厂的运行经验估算出来的 ,包括 1989年至19 93年期间有实际…     

美国核电厂风险评估的安全效益（二）

【美国《核新闻》2003年1月刊报道】 PRA的知识 通用概率风险分析 始于1975年的早期概率风险分析(PRA)使核电厂职工的安全文化逐渐发生变化。这种变化主要由以下几个重要方面引起: 1. 在电厂设计期间,设计基准事故和其它可预见事故的始发因素对公共安全没有引起很高的风险,例如大规模冷却剂丧失事故(LOCA),蒸汽管线破裂和给水管线破裂。PRA的结果表明,针对这些始发因素进行必要的电厂设计、制订操作员规程并提供培训可显著提高安全水平,不需要对这些事故给予额外的关注。 2. 在内部事件始发因素中,较频繁的始发因素如电厂自动保护停堆…     

火灾情景下的人员可靠性分析

国内外各核电厂火灾概率安全评价（PSA）表明,人员操作对火灾情景下的电厂风险有重要影响,因此,有必要采用系统的人员可靠性分析（HRA）方法来评价火灾情景下的人员失误概率。本文阐述了HCR/ORE和CBDTM模型的基本理论和在火灾情景下的特殊考虑。将HCR/ORE和CBDTM方法与THERP方法相结合应用于火灾情景下的人员可靠性分析,并进行了实例分析。为建立更符合工程实际的火灾PSA模型奠定了基础。     

火灾人员可靠性分析中的定性分析

福岛事故后,国家安全监管部门对核电厂火灾概率安全分析中人员可靠性分析提出了新的要求。火灾情景下,合理评估人误概率,并根据评估结果对电厂火灾后的管理和响应提出合理化建议,对电厂安全具有重要意义。NUREG-1921导则是专门的和最新的火灾HRA导则,首次明确提出定性分析在整个火灾人员可靠性分析活动中的重要性。基于导则的学习、消化和吸收,并结合实际工作经验,本文首先阐述了火灾人员可靠性分析的基本框架,然后分别从信息收集、操作的可行性评估、绩效形成因子等三个方面阐述了火灾人员可靠性分析中定性分析的主要内容及特征,并通过了一个工程实例阐述了如何开展定性分析,以期更好指导其在实际工程项目中应用。     

核电厂风险管理活动中的PRA质量要求

基于美国核管理委员会(NRC)推行的在核电厂运用的概率安全评价(PRA)技术,介绍PRA质量的含义、NRC在应用PRA过程中提出的分阶段提高PRA质量的方法以及相应的管理导则。结合国内现状,给出提高PRA质量的可接受方法。     

核电厂内部火灾概率安全评价现状

核电厂运行经验表明火灾对其安全具有严重威胁,各国安全监管当局也加强了对核电厂火灾安全的监管,要求核电厂实施火灾危害性分析,并对火灾风险进行评估。详细介绍了核电厂内部火灾概率安全评价(PSA)的发展历史与开展情况,并对主要方法和标准做了简要介绍。     

核电厂起火频率分析

通过研究美国核管理委员会(NRC)和电力研究院(EPRI)的《核电厂的火灾概率风险评价方法》,介绍了核电厂内部火灾概率安全评价(PSA)过程中,各类点火源起火频率的分析方法和步骤。以大亚湾核电厂的主变压器为例,介绍了起火频率的具体分析过程。经定量计算分析,大亚湾核电厂主变压器的起火频率是4.32×10-3/(堆.年),是反应堆堆芯损坏频率(CDF)的203倍。一旦起火,发生破坏性火灾的概率高达83%。     

IEEE/IEC 63260-2020 将人员可靠性分析纳入核电厂和其他核设施的概率风险评估指南

正该指南提供了将人因可靠性分析(HRA)纳入概率风险评估(PRA)的结构化框架。该指南旨在加强PRA中人与系统交互作用的分析,以帮助确保得出可重复的结论,并使此类评估的文件标准化。为此,根据标准做法开发了一个特定的HRA框架。对于特定的HRA方法,HRA框架是中立的。     

核电厂火灾概率安全评价中详细火灾情景分析方法探讨

火灾概率安全评价(PSA)是评估核电厂风险并发现薄弱环节的有效工具,详细的火灾情景分析是其中一个重要环节。在火灾概率安全评价的火灾隔间定量筛选的过程中,火灾隔间的分析通常较为保守,为使结果更贴近核电厂实际,有必要对风险重要的火灾隔间进行详细的火灾情景分析。通过确定特定的火灾情景,分析火灾的发展蔓延并评估火灾情景的发生频率,从而为最终的火灾风险定量化提供基础。本文探讨了详细火灾情景分析在火灾概率安全评价中的应用,并以单一火灾隔间为例阐述分析方法,为核电厂火灾概率安全评价工作提供支持和参考。     

核电厂火灾PSA中火灾场景频率分析方法

核电厂的火灾场景频率分析是火灾概率安全分析的核心内容。本文根据美国NRC和EPRI的《核动力设施火灾概率风险评价方法》,介绍了核电厂内部火灾概率安全评价中,火灾场景频率的分析方法及参数不确定性的处理方法。以福清一期核电厂某房间的电气柜火灾为例,进行了定量分析计算,计算结果表明,在计算中考虑热释放速率参数不确定性的传递可以有效降低计算结果的保守性。     

An evaluation of risk methods for prioritizing fire protection features: a procedure for fire barrier penetration seals

This paper generally evaluates risk methods available for prioritizing fire protection features. Risk methods involving both the use of qualitative insights, and quantitative results from a fire probabilistic risk analysis are reviewed. The applicability of these methods to develop a prioritized list of fire barrier penetration seals in a plant based on risk significance is presented as a procedure to illustrate the benefits of the methods. The paper concludes that current fire risk assessment methods can be confidently used to prioritize plant fire protection features, specifically fire barrier penetration seals. Simple prioritization schemes, using qualitative assessments and insights from fire PRA methodology may be implemented without the need for quantitative results. More elaborate prioritization schemes that allow further refinements to the categorization process may be implemented using the quantitative results of the screening processes in good fire PRAs. The use of the quantitative results from good fire PRAs provide several benefits for risk prioritization of fire protection features at plants, mainly from the plant systems analyses conducted for a fire PRA.     

Review of the IAEA fire symposium

The IAEA Symposium on Fire Protection and Fire Fighting in Nuclear Installations covered a large scope in the field in order to provide the opportunity for screening all aspects of present technology, research and development, standardization, licensing and fire fighting practices. Although application to any nuclear facility was within its scope, the majority of presentations concerned nuclear power plants. The approach to fire protection is the classical one in all plant designs: reduction of fire loads, appropriate zoning, manual and automatic extinguishment. However, methods of analysis and consequence prediction are changing. Computerized fire modelling is becoming a powerful tool in this area; probabilistic analytical methods are being improved, though they are not yet used widely for fire hazards. Differences in opinion were revealed in the definition of barrier resistance, the prediction of cable insulation behaviour and the optimal design of extinguishing systems. Greater international co-operation, especially in these areas, may be a good way of optimizing results with limited resources. Discussion contributions showed interest in exchange of experience in more specialized topics and encouraged the IAEA to increase its activity in the area of fire protection.     

Assessing the adequacy and reliability of fire barriers in nuclear power plants

Fire barriers on nuclear power plants are essential for proper segregation of redundant trains of safety equipment. The contribution they make to nuclear safety is obviously significant, but difficult to quantify. As a result, the analysis of fire barriers for nuclear safety justification purposes tends to concentrate on demonstrating that they are adequate instead. The paper discusses various methods of analysing fire barriers and introduces work being completed on a method for quantifying the reliability of a fire barrier.     

核电厂封闭空间横向多层电缆燃烧纵向温度分布特征研究

针对核电厂横向多层电缆火灾危害性，研究封闭空间内电缆燃烧产生的室内温度分布特征及热烟气层温度预测模型。基于2种典型的电缆布置，在封闭空间进行了横向3层电缆燃烧实验。实验研究结果表明，横向多层电缆燃烧产生的热烟气层温度存在明显的分层现象。基于室内中心纵向温度分布，可将室内电缆燃烧产生的热环境分为底层冷空气层、中层热烟气层和顶层顶棚射流层。采用封闭空间内非稳态温度预测模型，对横向多层电缆桥架电缆火灾的热烟气层温度进行预测。通过比较模型预测结果和热烟气层温度实验测量值可以得到:该模型可以精确地预测封闭空间内热烟气层温度的最大值，相对误差小于1%；由于模型低估了火灾衰减阶段的温度发展，导致该模型预测整个温度发展的全局误差在16.3%~27.8%之间。      

Probabilistic simulation of fire scenarios

A risk analysis tool is developed for computation of the distributions of fire model output variables. The tool, called Probabilistic Fire Simulator (PFS), combines Monte Carlo simulation and CFAST, a two-zone fire model. In this work, the tool is used to estimate the failure probability of redundant cables in a cable tunnel fire, and the failure and smoke filling probabilities in an electronics room during an electronics cabinet fire. Sensitivity of the output variables to the input variables is calculated in terms of the rank order correlations. The use of the rank order correlations allows the user to identify both modelling parameters and actual facility properties that have the most influence on the results. Various steps of the simulation process, i.e. data collection, generation of the input distributions, modelling assumptions, definition of the output variables and the actual simulation, are described.     

秦山三期(重水堆)核电站消防行动预案体系的建立

秦山三期 (重水堆 )核电站的消防行动预案是贯彻消防纵深防御思想 ,将消防设施、管理制度和人员责任行动有机结合 ,为火灾时人员的灭火行动提供了可迅速参照执行的指南。介绍了秦山三期 (重水堆 )核电站的消防行动预案的组成、作用和管理的现状     

Seismic individual plant examination of external events of US nuclear power plants: insights and implications

As part of the implementation of the severe accident policy, nuclear power plants in the US are conducting the individual plant examination of external events (IPEEE). Seismic events are treated in these IPEEEs by either a seismic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) or a seismic margin assessment. The major elements of a seismic PRA are the seismic hazard analysis, seismic fragility evaluation of structures and equipment and systems analysis using event tree and fault tree analysis techniques to develop accident sequences and calculate their frequencies of occurrence. The seismic margin assessment is a deterministic evaluation of the seismic margin of the plant beyond the design basis earthquake. A review level earthquake is selected and some of the components that are on the success paths are screened out as exceeding the review level earthquake; the remaining ones are evaluated for their seismic capacity using information from the original plant design criteria, test data and plant walkdown. The IPEEEs of over 100 operating nuclear power plants are nearing completion. This paper summarizes the lessons learned in conducting the IPEEEs and their applicability to nuclear power plants outside of the United States.     

核电厂封闭空间内火灾火源功率预测模型及其实验验证

针对核电厂防火设计中使用的火灾区域模型模拟软件CFAST(Consolidated Model of Fire Growth and Smoke Transport)在火源模型方面的缺陷,提出耦合火源与热烟气层的热反馈相互作用的火源计算模型。为了验证新的火源功率计算模型的可靠性,基于核电厂保守性原则,分别进行了开放空间和封闭空间内横向四层电缆桥架电缆燃烧火灾实验。通过比较模型预测的火源功率和温度与实验测量值得到:相对于现有的区域模型软件的火源计算模型,新的火源功率计算模型使得整个火灾过程中火源的热释放速率预测精确度提高了11%;特别是在电缆火焰横向蔓延阶段,精确度提高了24.7%。更重要的是:因为区域模型软件CFAST火源计算模型忽略了烟气的热反馈作用,导致其基于开放空间火源热释放速率测量值计算的热烟气层温度小于实验测量值,该温度数据如用于防火设计将导致缺乏保守性;而修正后的火源计算模型通过耦合火源与热烟气层热反馈的相互作用,使得温度计算结果趋势性的大于实验测量值,使得预测结果趋于精确和保守。