Evaluation of the wind direction uncertainty and its impact on wake modeling at the Horns Rev offshore wind farm

Accurately quantifying wind turbine wakes is a key aspect of wind farm economics in large wind farms. This paper introduces a new simulation post‐processing method to address the wind direction uncertainty present in the measurements of the Horns Rev offshore wind farm. This new technique replaces the traditional simulations performed with the 10 min average wind direction by a weighted average of several simulations covering a wide span of directions. The weights are based on a normal distribution to account for the uncertainty from the yaw misalignment of the reference turbine, the spatial variability of the wind direction inside the wind farm and the variability of the wind direction within the averaging period. The results show that the technique corrects the predictions of the models when the simulations and data are averaged over narrow wind direction sectors. In addition, the agreement of the shape of the power deficit in a single wake situation is improved. The robustness of the method is verified using the Jensen model, the Larsen model and Fuga, which are three different engineering wake models. The results indicate that the discrepancies between the traditional numerical simulations and power production data for narrow wind direction sectors are not caused by an inherent inaccuracy of the current wake models, but rather by the large wind direction uncertainty included in the dataset. The technique can potentially improve wind farm control algorithms and layout optimization because both applications require accurate wake predictions for narrow wind direction sectors. © 2013 The Authors. Wind Energy published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of wind farm efficiency and wind turbine wakes at the Nysted offshore wind farm

Here, we quantify relationships between wind farm efficiency and wind speed, direction, turbulence and atmospheric stability using power output from the large offshore wind farm at Nysted in Denmark. Wake losses are, as expected, most strongly related to wind speed variations through the turbine thrust coefficient; with direction, atmospheric stability and turbulence as important second order effects. While the wind farm efficiency is highly dependent on the distribution of wind speeds and wind direction, it is shown that the impact of turbine spacing on wake losses and turbine efficiency can be quantified, albeit with relatively large uncertainty due to stochastic effects in the data. There is evidence of the ‘deep array effect’ in that wake losses in the centre of the wind farm are under‐estimated by the wind farm model WAsP, although overall efficiency of the wind farm is well predicted due to compensating edge effects. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Investigation of wind energy potentials in Brunei Darussalam

Conventional power generation mainly depends on natural gas and diesel oil in Brunei Darussalam. The power utility company is now thinking of power generation using natural wind. In this paper, wind energy, being one of the most readily available renewable energy sources, was studied. The wind characteristic, velocity and directions were studied using Weibull distribution based on the measurement of wind speed at two different locations in Brunei Darussalam. These wind speed distributions were modeled using the Wind Power program. The wind rose graph was obtained for the wind direction to analyze the wind power density onshore and offshore. Based on this analysis, it has been found that the wind speed of 3 to 5 m/s has a probability of occurrence of 40%. Besides, the annual energy production at a wind speed of 5 m/s has been found to be in the range between 1000 and 1500 kWh for both the locations in Brunei Darussalam.     

Estimation of variability and predictability of large‐scale wind energy in The Netherlands

This paper presents a data‐driven approach for estimating the degree of variability and predictability associated with large‐scale wind energy production for a planned integration in a given geographical area, with an application to The Netherlands. A new method is presented for generating realistic time series of aggregated wind power realizations and forecasts. To this end, simultaneous wind speed time series—both actual and predicted—at planned wind farm locations are needed, but not always available. A 1‐year data set of 10‐min averaged wind speeds measured at several weather stations is used. The measurements are first transformed from sensor height to hub height, then spatially interpolated using multivariate normal theory, and finally averaged over the market resolution time interval. Day‐ahead wind speed forecast time series are created from the atmospheric model HiRLAM (High Resolution Limited Area Model). Actual and forecasted wind speeds are passed through multi‐turbine power curves and summed up to create time series of actual and forecasted wind power. Two insights are derived from the developed data set: the degree of long‐term variability and the degree of predictability when Dutch wind energy production is aggregated at the national or at the market participant level. For a 7.8 GW installed wind power scenario, at the system level, the imbalance energy requirements due to wind variations across 15‐min intervals are ±14% of the total installed capacity, while the imbalance due to forecast errors vary between 53% for down‐ and 56% for up‐regulation. When aggregating at the market participant level, the balancing energy requirements are 2–3% higher. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A general method to estimate wind farm power using artificial neural networks

An artificial neural network (ANN) is trained and validated using a large dataset of observations of wind speed, direction, and power generated at an offshore wind farm (Lillgrund in Sweden). In its traditional form, the ANN is used to generate a new two‐dimensional power curve, which predicts with high accuracy (bias ～?0.5% and absolute error ～2%) the power of the entire Lillgrund wind farm based on wind speed and direction. By contrast, manufacturers only provide one‐dimensional power curves (i.e., power as a function of wind speed) for a single turbine. The second innovative application of the ANN is the use of a geometric model (GM) to calculate two simple geometric properties to replace wind direction in the ANN. The resulting GM‐ANN has the powerful feature of being applicable to any wind farm, not just Lillgrund. A validation at an onshore wind farm (Nørrekær in Denmark) demonstrates the high accuracy (bias ～?0.7% and absolute error ～6%) and transfer‐learning ability of the GM‐ANN.     

两种数值模式用于风场模拟的对比研究

以珠海横琴风电场为实例,分别使用线性模型WAsP及基于Fluent的计算流体力学(CFD)模型进行风场模拟及发电量计算,得出两种模型下的计算结果;分别对两者的模拟风速、计算发电量与实际发电量进行比较,并分析误差原因.试验结果表明:对于地形复杂的横琴风电场,WAsP模拟的风速值普遍高于Fluent模拟的风速值;WAsP计算年发电量的误差为21.6％,Fluent的误差为10.4％;基于Fluent的CFD模型在风场模拟中比线性模型WAsP具有更高的准确性.     

Detecting,categorizing and forecasting large ramps in wind farm power output using meteorological observations and WPPT

The Wind Power Prediction Tool (WPPT) has been installed in Australia for the first time, to forecast the power output from the 65MW Roaring 40s Renewable Energy P/L Woolnorth Bluff Point wind farm. This article analyses the general performance of WPPT as well as its performance during large ramps (swings) in power output. In addition to this, detected large ramps are studied in detail and categorized. WPPT combines wind speed and direction forecasts from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology regional numerical weather prediction model, MesoLAPS, with real‐time wind power observations to make hourly forecasts of the wind farm power output. The general performances of MesoLAPS and WPPT are evaluated over 1 year using the root mean square error (RMSE). The errors are significantly lower than for basic benchmark forecasts but higher than for many other WPPT installations, where the site conditions are not as complicated as Woolnorth Bluff Point. Large ramps are considered critical events for a wind power forecast for energy trading as well as managing power system security. A methodology is developed to detect large ramp events in the wind farm power data. Forty‐one large ramp events are detected over 1 year and these are categorized according to their predictability by MesoLAPS, the mechanical behaviour of the wind turbine, the power change observed on the grid and the source weather event. During these events, MesoLAPS and WPPT are found to give an RMSE only roughly equivalent to just predicting the mean (climatology forecast). Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fatigue distribution optimization for offshore wind farms using intelligent agent control

A novel control approach is proposed to optimize the fatigue distribution of wind turbines in a large‐scale offshore wind farm on the basis of an intelligent agent theory. In this approach, each wind turbine is considered to be an intelligent agent. The turbine at the farm boundary communicates with its neighbouring downwind turbines and organizes them adaptively into a wind delivery group along the wind direction. The agent attributes and the event structure are designed on the basis of the intelligent agent theory by using the unified modelling language. The control strategy of the intelligent agent is studied using topology models. The reference power of an individual wind turbine from the wind farm controller is re‐dispatched to balance the turbine fatigue in the power dispatch intervals. In the fatigue optimization, the goal function is to minimize the standard deviation of the fatigue coefficient for every wind turbine. The optimization is constrained such that the average fatigue for every turbine is smaller than what would be achieved by conventional dispatch and such that the total power loss of the wind farm is restricted to a few percent of the total power. This intelligent agent control approach is verified through the simulation of wind data from the Horns Rev offshore wind farm. The results illustrate that intelligent agent control is a feasible way to optimize fatigue distribution in wind farms, which may reduce the maintenance frequency and extend the service life of large‐scale wind farms. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of Climate Change on wind speed and its impact on optimal power system expansion planning: The case of Chile

This work assesses the changes in power capacity expansion decisions regarding power generation and transmission that occur when the effects of Climate Change on wind speed are captured in the decision model. Considering an 85-year period (2016–2101), we use a Mixed-Integer Linear Program (MILP) model to analyze the optimal power capacity expansion in diverse types of power generation technologies, throughout the years and geographical locations. The optimization model minimizes the total (investment and operational) costs of the power system subject to several technical and economic constraints. We implement our model using the main Chilean power system. We compare two scenarios: one assuming that Climate Change affects wind speeds and hence wind farm capacity factors and the other assuming it does not. Our results reveal that, when taking into account the impact of Climate Change on wind speed, the optimal power generation and transmission expansion plan is different than when ignoring this effect. The variation of wind speed affects not only wind power capacity installed, but also other-technology power capacity installed. In particular, power capacity installed in wind and solar generation plants is higher (measured in MW installed) than the power capacity installed when we ignore the effects of Climate Change; and power capacity installed in diesel and natural gas technologies are lower. We perform sensitivity analyses, changing power capacity expansion limits and the discount rate, to check for the robustness of our results.     

State‐space representation of the wind flow model in wind farms

A dynamic model for the wind flow in wind farms is developed in this paper. The model is based on the spatial discretization of the linearized Navier–Stokes equation combined with the vortex cylinder theory. The spatial discretization of the model is performed using the finite difference method, which provides the state‐space form of the dynamic wind farm model. The model provides an approximation of the behavior of the flow in the wind farm and obtains the wind speed in the vicinity of each wind turbine. Afterwards, the model is validated using measurement data of Energy research Center of the Netherlands’ Wind turbine Test site in Wieringermeer in the Netherlands and by employing the outcomes of two other wind flow models. The end goal of this work is to present the wind farm flow model by ordinary differential equations, to be applied in wind farm control algorithms along with load and power optimizations. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using nacelle‐based wind speed observations to improve power curve modeling for wind power forecasting

Wind power forecasting for projection times of 0–48 h can have a particular value in facilitating the integration of wind power into power systems. Accurate observations of the wind speed received by wind turbines are important inputs for some of the most useful methods for making such forecasts. In particular, they are used to derive power curves relating wind speeds to wind power production. By using power curve modeling, this paper compares two types of wind speed observations typically available at wind farms: the wind speed and wind direction measurements at the nacelles of the wind turbines and those at one or more on‐site meteorological masts (met masts). For the three Australian wind farms studied in this project, the results favor the nacelle‐based observations despite the inherent interference from the nacelle and the blades and despite calibration corrections to the met mast observations. This trend was found to be stronger for wind farm sites with more complex terrain. In addition, a numerical weather prediction (NWP) system was used to show that, for the wind farms studied, smaller single time‐series forecast errors can be achieved with the average wind speed from the nacelle‐based observations. This suggests that the nacelle‐average observations are more representative of the wind behavior predicted by an NWP system than the met mast observations. Also, when using an NWP system to predict wind farm power production, it suggests the use of a wind farm power curve based on nacelle‐average observations instead of met mast observations. Further, it suggests that historical and real‐time nacelle‐average observations should be calculated for large wind farms and used in wind power forecasting. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling of the dynamics of wind to power conversion including high wind speed behavior

This paper proposes and validates an efficient, generic and computationally simple dynamic model for the conversion of the wind speed at hub height into the electrical power by a wind turbine. This proposed wind turbine model was developed as a first step to simulate wind power time series for power system studies. This paper focuses on describing and validating the single wind turbine model, and is therefore neither describing wind speed modeling nor aggregation of contributions from a whole wind farm or a power system area. The state‐of‐the‐art is to use static power curves for the purpose of power system studies, but the idea of the proposed wind turbine model is to include the main dynamic effects in order to have a better representation of the fluctuations in the output power and of the fast power ramping especially because of high wind speed shutdowns of the wind turbine. The high wind speed shutdowns and restarts are represented as on–off switching rules that govern the output of the wind turbine at extreme wind speed conditions. The model uses the concept of equivalent wind speed, estimated from the single point (hub height) wind speed using a second‐order dynamic filter that is derived from an admittance function. The equivalent wind speed is a representation of the averaging of the wind speeds over the wind turbine rotor plane and is used as input to the static power curve to get the output power. The proposed wind turbine model is validated for the whole operating range using measurements available from the DONG Energy offshore wind farm Horns Rev 2. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Validation of the dynamic wake meander model for loads and power production in the Egmond aan Zee wind farm

This paper investigates wake effects on load and power production by using the dynamic wake meander (DWM) model implemented in the aeroelastic code HAWC2. The instationary wind farm flow characteristics are modeled by treating the wind turbine wakes as passive tracers transported downstream using a meandering process driven by the low frequent cross‐wind turbulence components. The model complex is validated by comparing simulated and measured loads for the Dutch Egmond aan Zee wind farm consisting of 36 Vestas V90 turbine located outside the coast of the Netherlands. Loads and production are compared for two distinct wind directions—a free wind situation from the dominating southwest and a full wake situation from northwest, where the observed turbine is operating in wake from five turbines in a row with 7D spacing. The measurements have a very high quality, allowing for detailed comparison of both fatigue and min–mean–max loads for blade root flap, tower yaw and tower bottom bending moments, respectively. Since the observed turbine is located deep inside a row of turbines, a new method on how to handle multiple wakes interaction is proposed. The agreement between measurements and simulations is excellent regarding power production in both free and wake sector, and a very good agreement is seen for the load comparisons too. This enables the conclusion that wake meandering, caused by large scale ambient turbulence, is indeed an important contribution to wake loading in wind farms. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Adjustment of wind farm power output through flexible turbine operation using wind farm control

When the installed capacity of wind power becomes high, the power generated by wind farms can no longer simply be that dictated by the wind speed. With sufficiently high penetration, it will be necessary for wind farms to provide assistance with supply‐demand matching. The work presented here introduces a wind farm controller that regulates the power generated by the wind farm to match the grid requirements by causing the power generated by each turbine to be adjusted. Further, benefits include fast response to reach the wind farm power demanded, flexibility, little fluctuation in the wind farm power output and provision of synthetic inertia. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling and measurements of power losses and turbulence intensity in wind turbine wakes at Middelgrunden offshore wind farm

Understanding of power losses and turbulence increase due to wind turbine wake interactions in large offshore wind farms is crucial to optimizing wind farm design. Power losses and turbulence increase due to wakes are quantified based on observations from Middelgrunden and state‐of‐the‐art models. Observed power losses due solely to wakes are approximately 10% on average. These are relatively high for a single line of wind turbines due in part to the close spacing of the wind farm. The wind farm model Wind Analysis and Application Program (WAsP) is shown to capture wake losses despite operating beyond its specifications for turbine spacing. The paper describes two methods of estimating turbulence intensity: one based on the mean and standard deviation (SD) of wind speed from the nacelle anemometer, the other from mean power output and its SD. Observations from the nacelle anemometer indicate turbulence intensity which is around 9% higher in absolute terms than those derived from the power measurements. For comparison, turbulence intensity is also derived from wind speed and SD from a meteorological mast at the same site prior to wind farm construction. Despite differences in the measurement height and period, overall agreement is better between the turbulence intensity derived from power measurements and the meteorological mast than with those derived from data from the nacelle anemometers. The turbulence in wind farm model indicates turbulence increase of the order 20% in absolute terms for flow directly along the row which is in good agreement with the observations. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Coupling Doppler radar‐derived wind maps with operational turbine data to document wind farm complex flows

The first known dual‐Doppler (DD) measurements collected within a utility‐scale wind farm are presented. Various complex flow features are discussed, including detailed analyses of turbine wakes, turbine‐to‐turbine interaction, high wind speed channels that exist between individual wakes and intermittent gust propagation. The data have been collected using innovative mobile Doppler radar technologies, which allows for a large observational footprint of ~17 km² in the presented analyses while maintaining spatial resolution of 0.49° in the azimuthal dimension by 15 m in the along‐beam range dimension. The presented DD syntheses provide three‐dimensional fields of the horizontal wind speed and direction with a revisit time of approximately 1 min. DD wind fields are validated with operational turbine data and are successfully used to accurately project composite power output for several turbines. The employed radar technologies, deployment schemes, scanning strategies and subsequent analysis methodologies offer the potential to contribute to the validation and improvement of current wake modeling efforts that influence wind farm design and layout practices, enhanced resource assessment campaigns, and provide real‐time wind maps to drive ‘smart’ wind farm operation. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Model‐based receding horizon control of wind farms for secondary frequency regulation

In this study, we propose the use of model‐based receding horizon control to enable a wind farm to provide secondary frequency regulation for a power grid. The controller is built by first proposing a time‐varying one‐dimensional wake model, which is validated against large eddy simulations of a wind farm at startup. This wake model is then used as a plant model for a closed‐loop receding horizon controller that uses wind speed measurements at each turbine as feedback. The control method is tested in large eddy simulations with actuator disk wind turbine models representing an 84‐turbine wind farm that aims to track sample frequency regulation reference signals spanning 40 min time intervals. This type of control generally requires wind turbines to reduce their power set points or curtail wind power output (derate the power output) by the same amount as the maximum upward variation in power level required by the reference signal. However, our control approach provides good tracking performance in the test system considered with only a 4% derate for a regulation signal with an 8% maximum upward variation. This performance improvement has the potential to reduce the opportunity cost associated with lost revenue in the bulk power market that is typically associated with providing frequency regulation services. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Wake impacts on downstream wind turbine performance and yaw alignment

Aerodynamic wake interaction between commercial scale wind turbines can be a significant source of power losses and increased fatigue loads across a wind farm. Significant research has been dedicated to the study of wind turbine wakes and wake model development. This paper profiles influential wake regions for an onshore wind farm using 6 months of recorded SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition) data. An average wind velocity deficit of over 30% was observed corresponding to power coefficient losses of 0.2 in the wake region. Wind speed fluctuations are also quantified for an array of turbines, inferring an increase in turbulence within the wake region. A study of yaw data within the array showed turbine nacelle misalignment under a range of downstream wake angles, indicating a characteristic of wind turbine behaviour not generally considered in wake studies. The turbines yaw independently in order to capture the increased wind speeds present due to the lateral influx of turbulent wind, contrary to many experimental and simulation methods found in the literature. Improvements are suggested for wind farm control strategies that may improve farm‐wide power output. Additionally, possible causes for wind farm wake model overestimation of wake losses are proposed.Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optimal positioning of wind turbines on Gökçeada using multi‐objective genetic algorithm

This paper addresses the problem of optimal placement of wind turbines in a farm on Gokçeada Island located at the north‐east of Aegean Sea bearing full potential of wind energy generation. A multi‐objective genetic algorithm approach is employed to obtain optimal placement of wind turbines by maximizing the power production capacity while constraining the budget of installed turbines. Considering the speed and direction history, wind with constant intensity from a single direction is used during optimization. This study is based on wake deficit model mainly because of its simplicity, accuracy and fast calculation time. The individuals of the Pareto optimal solution set are evaluated with respect to various criteria, and the best configurations are presented. In addition to best placement layouts, results include objective function values, total power output, cost and number of turbines for each configuration. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantification of power losses due to wind turbine wake interactions through SCADA,meteorological and wind LiDAR data

Power production of an onshore wind farm is investigated through supervisory control and data acquisition data, while the wind field is monitored through scanning light detection and ranging measurements and meteorological data acquired from a met‐tower located in proximity to the turbine array. The power production of each turbine is analysed as functions of the operating region of the power curve, wind direction and atmospheric stability. Five different methods are used to estimate the potential wind power as a function of time, enabling an estimation of power losses connected with wake interactions. The most robust method from a statistical standpoint is that based on the evaluation of a reference wind velocity at hub height and experimental mean power curves calculated for each turbine and different atmospheric stability regimes. The synergistic analysis of these various datasets shows that power losses are significant for wind velocities higher than cut‐in wind speed and lower than rated wind speed of the turbines. Furthermore, power losses are larger under stable atmospheric conditions than for convective regimes, which is a consequence of the stability‐driven variability in wake evolution. Light detection and ranging measurements confirm that wind turbine wakes recover faster under convective regimes, thus alleviating detrimental effects due to wake interactions. For the wind farm under examination, power loss due to wake shadowing effects is estimated to be about 4% and 2% of the total power production when operating under stable and convective conditions, respectively. However, cases with power losses about 60‐80% of the potential power are systematically observed for specific wind turbines and wind directions. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.