2018年我国电力发展形势及2019年展望

2018年全社会用电量增速创下7年来新高,电力装机稳步增长,电力供需从宽松转向总体平衡。降电价实现预期目标,电力体制改革取得重要进展。2019年电力需求增速将略有回落,但电力供需不确定因素增加,保供压力加大。     

中国煤电发展现状与趋势分析及定位展望

中国是世界第一煤电装机大国,煤电在电源结构中处于绝对支柱的地位,但是近年来煤电的年利用小时一直偏低,煤电过剩严重。煤电的定位、发展趋势受电力需求增长和其他电源供给能力两方面因素的影响。本文对煤电的发展现状进行了分析,对未来中国电力需求进行了预测和展望,对非煤清洁电力的供给潜力进行了分析,对存量煤电进一步优化利用的潜力进行了分析,在此基础上对未来煤电的发展趋势和定位进行了展望。结果表明,未来中国电力需求增速将进一步放缓,通过增加非煤清洁电力供给和强化需求侧管理基本能够满足未来的用电需求,如果再考虑存量煤电的优化利用潜力,未来完全不需要新增煤电装机。煤电的发展定位需要尽快作出调整,应该通过市场手段来引导煤电从电量型向电力电量型转变,向提供辅助服务、保障灵活性、可靠性转变。     

煤电矛盾：不能只靠电力改革

解决煤电矛盾,不仅是电力体制要改革,煤炭体制也要改革,并且对煤电都实行严格的监管。     

经济新常态下中国电力需求展望及煤电前景分析

我国以煤为主的电力生产结构带来的生态环境问题日益突出,电力发展面临着一系列新问题和新挑战。在大气治理和二氧化碳峰值的双重约束下,电力行业必须找到适应经济新常态的可持续发展新路径。本文根据我国经济社会发展的动力特征构造了电力需求情景分析模型,对2015—2030年的电力需求进行了多情景分析。根据推荐的电力需求情景,以清洁高效发展煤电、大力发展非水可再生能源、积极发展水电、安全高效发展核电、适度发展气电为基本原则,进行了2015—2030年电源装机规划。结果表明,在经济发展新常态下,综合考虑电能替代和电力能效,电力需求在2020年将达到7.47万亿kWh,2030年达到9.73万亿kWh;煤电装机总规模有望在2020年达到峰值9.73亿kW,此后将进入长达10年的平台期。     

2020年我国电源结构规划设想

根据我国能源结构状况,我国电源结构在相当长的时期内,直到2020年都将以煤电为主,这是难以改变的。为了努力减少电力生产的CO2排放,必须尽可能降低煤电比例,尽可能早开发、多开发水电,并尽快提高核电、天然气及可再生新能源     

我国应加快改进电力交易和调度方式

我国电力交易方式和调度方式仍存在较强的计划经济色彩,这是导致近一时期煤电矛盾的重要原因。文章建议,改进电力交易方式,实行发电方与用电方直接交易,电网收取合理的过网费;改进电力调度方式,实行按机组能耗由低到时依次上网。实施这两项措施,有利于理顺煤电供求关系,节约大量电煤资源,大幅度降低工商企业用电成本,并在很大程度上减小CPI上涨压力。     

关于中国电价问题的探讨

中国电力工业与发达国家电力工业的最大差别是电价,发展中国家和传统的社会主义国家都以大大低于成本的价格出售电力。发达的市场经济国家实行市场定价,电价较高,发展中国家是政府定价,定价较低。电价改革是电力体制改革的前提条件。与发达国家比较,我国生活电价严重偏低,我国工业电价低于OECD大多数国家,OECD大多数国家生活电价都高于工业电价,而我国生活电价还低于工业电价,所以我国生活电价严重偏低。为改变我国居民电价严重偏低的问题,我国自2008年开始研究实行阶梯电价。由于中国目前的电价严重偏低,中国电力工业因长期维持低电价而处于高负债和部分企业资不抵债的境地。国外电力投资商撤离中国,民营电力投资商撤离电力工业,五大电力集团煤电企业严重亏损,煤电新增装机容量不断减少。为此加快电价的市场化改革势在必行。     

广东天然气发电企业的转型之路

随着电力体制改革不断向纵深推进和电力交易走向现货市场,广东天然气发电企业面临着上网电价和基数电量双降以及在现货市场与煤电机组以绝对价格竞争等新的生存环境。在主营业务承压、艰难维持资金流的同时,天然气发电企业如何实现转型、发展迫在眉睫。本文将分析燃气发电企业如何在辅助服务市场、热电冷三联供以及现货市场发售一体化方面转型,探索电力体制改革形势下如何立足和进一步发展。     

煤电联动机制及对策

煤电联动是指煤电价格联动，类似于面粉涨价．面包要跟着涨价；豆子涨价，豆油要跟着涨价一样。国家发改委在建立煤电联动机制的通知中说，我国经济运行中资源约束矛盾加剧，煤炭、电力供应紧张，价格矛盾突出。为理顺煤电价格关系，促进煤炭、电力行业全面、协调、可持续发展，经国务院批准，决定建立煤电价格联动机制。煤电价格联动机制是2004年12月开始建立的，这一机制建立后，绝大多数是赞同的．也有专家认为这是计划经济的办法，市场经济的办法应当是竞价上网。应当说煤电价格联动机制既适应于计划经济时期的煤炭和电力价格联动，也适用于电力垄断经营时期。而竞争上网定价适应于建立了竞争性发电市场的时候，     

华电集团装机突破1亿千瓦

电力改革十年之际，发电集团均取得一系列成就，同时也面临煤电亏损诸多困难，如何在未来继续做优做强？     

火电厂节能工作浅析

本文探讨了火电厂节能基本程序和工作方法,分析节能工作要从基础工作、技术创新、设备整治、燃烧管理等方面入手的论述.     

浅析磨合期汽车的使用

如何合理使用磨合期的汽车，使其摩擦机件的磨损量能够平稳、均匀地磨合而不至于过度磨损，对汽车实际使用寿命有着重要的意义。从机器磨合期的特点和磨损机理出发，对汽车磨合期如何正确使用进行了有实际意义的探讨。     

Geothermal energy in agriculture in Yugoslavia

SFR Yugoslavia has natural hot water springs practically all over its territory, indicating the presence of geothermal reservoirs underground. There is no final estimate of how much energy can be expected from this new resource, except for figures based on the results of studies and investigations.The first use of geothermal energy in Yugoslavia in numerous spas dates back to the 19th century. Some remarkable examples of central heating are known, but the most widespread use is in agriculture (in greenhouse heating, farm heating and drying of agricultural products).     

Energy conservation measures in an institutional building in sub-tropical climate in Australia

In this study, various energy conservation measures (ECMs) on heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC) and lighting systems for a four-storied institutional building in sub-tropical (hot and humid climate) Queensland, Australia are evaluated using the simulation software called DesignBuilder (DB). Base case scenario of energy consumption profiles of existing systems are analysed and simulated first then, the simulated results are verified by on-site measured data. Three categories of ECMs, namely major investment ECMs (variable air volume (VAV) systems against constant air volume (CAV); and low coefficient of performance (COP) chillers against high COP chillers); minor investment ECMs (photo electric dimming control system against general lighting, and double glazed low emittance windows against single-glazed windows) and zero investment ECMs (reset heating and cooling set point temperatures) are evaluated. It is found that the building considered in this study can save up to 41.87% energy without compromising occupancies thermal comfort by implementing the above mentioned ECMs into the existing system.     

Leading-edge Technologies in Hydropower Development in China

After the implementation of the Reform and Opening-up Policy for a period of 40 years, the exploitation of China’s hydropower resources developed significantly. Through vast amounts of scientific and technological research and construction practices, China has accumulated abundant engineering experience with respect to the construction technologies required for 300-meter-high concrete arch dams, 200-meter-high roller-compacted concrete gravity dams, 200-meter-high concrete face rockfill dams, and 250-meter-high earth core rockfill dams, large-flow discharge and energy dissipation, huge underground cavern group constructions, complicated foundation treatments for high earth and rockfill dams and high and steep slope reinforcements. These series of technologies have now reached an international leading level. In the near future, these technical improvements will likely have broader application prospects and make greater contributions toward hydropower development both in China and across the world.     

Uncertainties in decarbonising heat in the UK

Heating is arguably one of the most difficult sectors to decarbonise in the UK's energy system. Meeting the 80% greenhouse gas emission reduction target by 2050 is likely to require that heat related emissions of CO₂ from buildings are near zero by 2050, and there is a 70% reduction in emissions from industry (from 1990 levels). Though it is clear that the use of the natural gas network will reduce over time, recent modelling suggests a limited residual role for gas by 2050 to help meet peaks in heat demand. High levels of uncertainty about the way in which heat will be decarbonised present a number of challenges to policy makers. This paper will explore the risks and uncertainties associated with the transition to a low carbon heat system in the UK as outlined by the 4th carbon budget review. The potential impact of key uncertainties on the levelised costs of heat technologies and the development of energy networks are explored using a sensitivity analysis approach. Policy changes required to decarbonise the heat sector are also examined.     

Solar drying in sludge management in Turkey

Two main wastewater treatment plants in Bursa city in Turkey will start to operate and produce at least 27,000 tons of dry solids per year by the end of 2006. The purpose of this study was to investigate an economical solution to the sludge management problem that Bursa city would encounter. The general trend in Turkey is mechanical dewatering to obtain a dry solid (DS) content of 20%, and liming the mechanically dewatered sludge to reach the legal landfilling requirement, 35% DS content. This study recommends limited liming & solar drying as an alternative to only-liming the mechanically dewatered sludge. Open and covered solar sludge drying plants were constructed in pilot scale for experimental purposes. Dry solids and climatic conditions were constantly measured. Faecal coliform reduction was also monitored. The specially designed covered solar drying plant proved to be more efficient than the open plant in terms of drying and faecal coliform reduction. It was found that, if the limited liming & solar drying method was applied after mechanical dewatering instead of only-liming method, the total amount of the sludge to be disposed would be reduced by approximately 40%. This would lead to a reduction in the transportation, handling, and landfilling costs. The covered drying system would amortize itself in 4 years.     

Viscous heating in liquid flows in micro-channels

Many experimental works on forced convection through micro-channels evidenced that when the hydraulic diameter is less than 1 mm, conventional theory can no longer be considered as suitable to predict the pressure drop and convective heat transfer coefficients. This conclusion seemed valid for both gas and liquid flows. Sometimes the authors justified this claim by invoking “new” micro-effects. On the contrary, in this paper the explanation of the experimental results obtained for micro-channels in terms of friction factors will be researched inside the conventional theory (Navier-Stokes equations). In particular, this paper will focus on the role of viscous heating in fluids flowing through micro-channels. A criterion will be presented to draw the limit of significance for viscous dissipation effects in micro-channel flows. The role of the cross-sectional geometry on viscous dissipation will be highlighted and the minimum Reynolds number for which viscous dissipation effects can no longer be neglected will be calculated as a function of the hydraulic diameter and of the micro-channel geometry for different fluids. It will be demonstrated how viscous effects can explain some experimental results on the Poiseuille numbers in micro-channels, which recently appeared in the open literature.     

Electoral cycles in electricity losses in India

A third of electricity in India is lost each year, where losses refer to power that is supplied but not billed. Utilizing data from the power corporation of Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state, we study the politics of electricity losses. Examining annual data over four decades, we document that UP's electricity losses tend to increase in periods immediately prior to state assembly elections. Drawing upon geographically disaggregated data for the period 2000–09, we observe higher line losses just prior to the 2002 and 2007 state elections. Our analysis shows that the incumbent party was more likely to retain the assembly seat as line losses in the locality increased. We interpret these results as corroboration that political parties deliberately redirect electricity to flat rate and unbilled users in a context of chronically inadequate supply. Political factors appear to affect line losses in ways that technical and economic factors alone cannot explain.