Options of biofuel trade from Central and Eastern to Western European countries

Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) have a substantial biomass production and export potential. The objective of this study is to assess whether the market for biofuels and trade can be profitable enough to realize a supply of biofuels from the CEEC to the European market and to estimate the cost performance of the energy carriers delivered. Five NUTS-2 (Nomenclature d'Unités Territoriales Statistiques) regions with high biomass production potentials in Poland, Romania, Hungary and the Czech Republic were analysed for biofuel export options. From these regions pellets from willow can be provided to destination areas in Western European countries (WEC) at costs of 105.2–219.8 € t^?1. Ethanol can be provided at 11.95–20.89 € per GJ if the biomass conversion is performed at the destination areas in the WEC or at 14.84–17.83 € GJ^?1J if the biomass to ethanol conversion takes place (at small scale) at the CEEC region where the biomass is produced. Short sea shipping shows most cost advantages for longer distance international transport compared to inland waterway shipping and railway. Another reason for lower biofuel supply costs are shorter distances between the regions of biomass production and the destination areas. Therefore the Szczecin region in Poland, closely located to the Baltic Sea, shows a better economic performance for long distance trade of biomass production than the selected region in Hungary (‘land-locked’). It is concluded that in future key CEEC regions can supply (pre-treated) biomass and biofuels to the European market at cost levels, which are sound and attractive to current and expected diesel and gasoline prices.     

Economic and greenhouse gas emission analysis of bioenergy production using multi-product crops—case studies for the Netherlands and Poland

In the face of climate change that may result from greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the scarcity of agricultural land and limited competitiveness of biomass energy on the market, it is desirable to increase the performance of bioenergy systems. Multi-product crops, i.e. using a crop partially for energy and partially for material purposes can possibly create additional incomes as well as additional GHG emission reductions. In this study, the performance of several multi-product crop systems is compared to energy crop systems, focused on the costs of primary biomass fuel costs and GHG emission reductions per hectare of biomass production. The sensitivity of the results is studied by means of a Monte-Carlo analysis. The multi-product crops studied are wheat, hemp and poplar in the Netherlands and Poland. GHG emission reductions of these multi-product crop systems are found to be between 0.2 and 2.4 Mg CO_2eq/(ha yr) in Poland and 0.9 and 7.8 Mg CO_2eq/(ha yr) in the Netherlands, while primary biomass fuel costs range from −4.1 to −1.7 €/GJ in the Netherlands and from 0.1 to 9.8 €/GJ in Poland. Results show that the economic attractiveness of multi-product crops depends strongly on material market prices, crop production costs and crop yields. Net annual GHG emission reductions per hectare are influenced strongly by the specific GHG emission reduction of material use, reference energy systems and GHG emissions of crop production. Multi-product use of crops can significantly decrease primary biomass fuel costs. However, this does not apply in general, but depends on the kind of crops and material uses. For the examples analysed here, net annual GHG emission reductions per hectare are not lowered by multi-product use of crops. Consequently, multi-product crops are not for granted an option to increase the performance of bioenergy systems. Further research on the feasibility of large-scale multi-product crop systems and their impact on land and material markets is desirable.     

Ethanol from lignocellulosic biomass: techno-economic performance in short-, middle- and long-term

The state of the art of hydrolysis-fermentation technologies to produce ethanol from lignocellulosic biomass, as well as developing technologies, is evaluated. Promising conversion concepts for the short-, middle- and long-term are defined. Their technical performance was analysed, and results were used for economic evaluations. The current available technology, which is based on dilute acid hydrolysis, has about 35% efficiency (HHV) from biomass to ethanol. The overall efficiency, with electricity co-produced from the not fermentable lignin, is about 60%. Improvements in pre-treatment and advances in biotechnology, especially through process combinations can bring the ethanol efficiency to 48% and the overall process efficiency to 68%. We estimate current investment costs at 2.1 k€/kW_HHV (at 400 MW_HHV input, i.e. a nominal 2000 tonne dry/day input). A future technology in a 5 times larger plant (2 GW_HHV) could have investments of 900 k€/kW_HHV. A combined effect of higher hydrolysis-fermentation efficiency, lower specific capital investments, increase of scale and cheaper biomass feedstock costs (from 3 to 2 €/GJ_HHV), could bring the ethanol production costs from 22 €/GJ_HHV in the next 5 years, to 13 €/GJ over the 10–15 year time scale, and down to 8.7 €/GJ in 20 or more years.     

Performance of simulated flexible integrated gasification polygeneration facilities,Part B: Economic evaluation.

This paper investigates the economics of integrated gasification polygeneration (IG-PG) facilities and assesses under which market conditions flexible facilities outperform static facilities. In this study, the facilities use Eucalyptus wood pellets (EP), torrefied wood pellets (TOPS) and Illinois #6 coal as feedstock to produce electricity, FT-liquids, methanol and urea. All facilities incorporate CCS. The findings show production costs from static IG-PG facilities ranging between 12 and 21 €/GJ using coal, 19–33 €/GJ using TOPS and 22–38 €/GJ using EP, which is above the average market prices. IG-PG facilities can become competitive if capital costs drop by 10%–27% for coal based facilities. Biomass based facilities will need lower biomass pellet prices or higher CO₂ credit prices. Biomass becomes competitive with coal at a CO₂ credit price of 50–55 €/t CO₂. Variations in feedstock, CO₂ credit and electricity prices can be offset by operating a feedstock flexible IG-PG facility, which can switch between coal and TOPS, thereby altering its electricity production. The additional investment is around 0.5% of the capital costs of a dedicated coal based IG-PG facility. At 30 €/t CO₂, TOPS will be the preferred feedstock for 95% of the time at a feedstock price of 5.7 €/GJ. At these conditions, FT-liquids (gasoline/diesel) can be produced for 15.8 €/GJ (116 $/bbl). Historic records show price variations between 5.7 and 7.3 €/GJ for biomass pellet, 1.0–5.6 €/GJ for coal and 0–32 €/t CO₂. Within these price ranges, coal is generally the preferred feedstock, but occasionally biomass is preferred. Lower biomass prices will increase the frequency of switching feedstock preference from coal to biomass, raising the desire for flexibility. Of the three investigated chemicals, an IG-PG facility producing FT-liquids benefits the most from flexibility. Our study suggests that if the uncertainty in commodity prices is high, a small additional investment can make flexible IG-PG facilities attractive.     

The potential biomass for energy production in the Czech Republic

Biomass production is a promising alternative for the Czech Republic's (CZ) agricultural sector. Biomass could cover the domestic bio-energy demand of 250 PJ a⁻¹ (predicted for 2030), and could be exported as bio-fuels to other EU countries. This study assesses the CZ's biomass production potential on a regional level and provides cost–supply curves for biomass from energy crops and agricultural and forestry residues. Agricultural productivity and the amount of land available for energy crop production are key variables in determining biomass potentials. Six scenarios for 2030 with different crop-yield levels, feed conversion efficiencies and land allocation procedures were built. The demand for food and fodder production was derived from FAO predictions for 2030. Biomass potential in the CZ is mainly determined by the development of food and fodder crop yields because the amount of land available for energy crop production increases with increasing productivity of food and fodder crops. In most scenarios the NUTS-3 regions CZ020, 31 and 32 provided the most land for energy-crop production and the highest biomass potentials. About 110 PJ a⁻¹, mostly from agricultural and forestry residues, can be provided from biomass when the present Czech agricultural productivity is maintained. About 195 PJ a⁻¹ (105 PJ from energy crops) can be provided when production systems are optimised with regard to fertilizer regimes and 365 PJ a⁻¹ (290 PJ from energy crops) when the yield level of Dutch agriculture is reached. Costs for woody biomass decrease with increasing plantation yield and range between 2.58 and 4.76 € GJ⁻¹. It was concluded that Czech agriculture could provide enough biomass for domestic demand and for export if agricultural productivity is increased.     

Large-scale bioenergy production from soybeans and switchgrass in Argentina: Part A: Potential and economic feasibility for national and international markets

This study focuses on the economic feasibility for large-scale biomass production from soybeans or switchgrass from a region in Argentina. This is determined, firstly, by estimating whether the potential supply of biomass, when food and feed demand are met, is sufficient under different scenarios to 2030. On a national level, switchgrass has a biomass potential of 99 × 10⁶ (1.9 EJ) to 243 × 10⁶ tdm (4.5 EJ)/year depending on the scenario. Soybean (crude vegetable oil content) production for bioenergy has a potential of 7.1 × 10⁶ (0.25 EJ) to 13.8 × 10⁶ tdm (0.5 EJ)/year depending on the scenario. The most suitable region (La Pampa province) to cultivate energy crop production is selected based on a defined set of criteria (available land for biomass production, available potential for both crops, proximity of logistics and limited risk of land use competition). The available potential for bioenergy in La Pampa ranges from 1.2 × 10⁵ to 1.8 × 10⁵ tdm/year for soybean production (based on vegetable oil content) and from 6.3 × 10⁶ to 18.2 × 10⁶ tdm/year for switchgrass production, depending on the scenario. Bioenergy chains for large-scale biomass production for export or for local use are further defined to analyse the economic performance. In this study, switchgrass is converted to pellets for power generation in the Netherlands or for local heating in Argentina. Soybeans are used for biodiesel production for export or for local use. Switchgrass cultivation costs range from 33–91 US$/tdm (1€ = 1.47 US$ based on 19 February 2008). Pellet production costs are 58–143 US$/tdm for local use and 150–296 US$/tdm until delivery at the harbour of Rotterdam. Total conversion costs for electricity in the Netherlands from switchgrass pellets range from 0.06–0.08 US$/kWh. Heating costs in Argentina from switchgrass pellets range from 0.02–0.04 US$/kWh. Soybean cultivation costs range from 182–501 US$/tdm depending on the scenario. Biodiesel production costs are 0.3–1.2 US$/l for local use and 0.5–1.7 US$/l after export to the Netherlands. Key parameters for the economic performance of the bioenergy chains in La Pampa province are transport costs, cultivation costs, pre-processing and conversion costs and costs for fossil fuels and agricultural commodities.     

An agro-economic analysis of willow cultivation in Poland

Bioenergy is recognized as the most important renewable energy source in Poland in several national policy documents. This has spurred an in increasing interest in energy crops, particularly willow, due to the large areas of arable land in Poland. However, in order for willow to be adopted by farmers, this crop must be perceived to be at least as profitable as cereal crops, such as wheat and barley, which compete for the same land. The objective of this study was to calculate the economics of growing willow on relatively large farms from a farmer's perspective in Poland. An additional objective was to relate the viability of growing willow to that of growing wheat and barley. Our calculations show that growing willow can indeed be an economically viable alternative to wheat and barley. At the current Polish price of wood chips (about 33 PLN/MWh or 7.5 €/MWh), the viability of willow is similar to that of barley given our assumptions on yields, etc. Wheat is the most viable crop of the three crops studied. Willow, however, is more profitable than both wheat and barley assuming a wood chip price of 50 PLN/MWh (11 €/MWh), which better represents the price in Europe as a whole. Despite good viability, willow is unlikely to be adopted by a great number of farmers without active support mechanisms and long-term stability of the status of energy crops in the Polish and the EU common agricultural policy.     

The economical and environmental performance of miscanthus and switchgrass production and supply chains in a European setting

The purpose of this study is to analyse the economical and environmental performance of switchgrass and miscanthus production and supply chains in the European Union (EU25), for the years 2004 and 2030. The environmental performance refers to the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the primary fossil energy use and to the impact on fresh water reserves, soil erosion and biodiversity. Analyses are carried out for regions in five countries. The lowest costs of producing (including storing and transporting across 100 km) in the year 2004 are calculated for Poland, Hungary and Lithuania at 43–64 € per oven dry tonne (odt) or 2.4–3.6 € GJ^?1 higher heating value. This cost level is roughly equivalent to the price of natural gas (3.1 € GJ^?1) and lower than the price of crude oil (4.6 € GJ^?1) in 2004, but higher than the price of coal (1.7 € GJ^?1) in 2004. The costs of biomass in Italy and the United Kingdom are somewhat higher (65–105 € odt^?1 or 3.6–5.8 € GJ^?1). The doubling of the price of crude oil and natural gas that is projected for the period 2004–2030, combined with nearly stable biomass production costs, makes the production of perennial grasses competitive with natural gas and fossil oil. The results also show that the substitution of fossil fuels by biomass from perennial grasses is a robust strategy to reduce fossil energy use and curb GHG emissions, provided that perennial grasses are grown on agricultural land (cropland or pastures). However, in such case deep percolation and runoff of water are reduced, which can lead to overexploitation of fresh water reservoirs. This can be avoided by selecting suitable locations (away from direct accessible fresh water reservoirs) and by limiting the size of the plantations. The impacts on biodiversity are generally favourable compared to conventional crops, but the location of the plantation compared to other vegetation types and the size and harvesting regime of the plantation are important variables.     

Outlook for advanced biofuels

To assess which biofuels have the better potential for the short-term or the longer term (2030), and what developments are necessary to improve the performance of biofuels, the production of four promising biofuels—methanol, ethanol, hydrogen, and synthetic diesel—is systematically analysed. This present paper summarises, normalises and compares earlier reported work. First, the key technologies for the production of these fuels, such as gasification, gas processing, synthesis, hydrolysis, and fermentation, and their improvement options are studied and modelled. Then, the production facility's technological and economic performance is analysed, applying variations in technology and scale. Finally, likely biofuels chains (including distribution to cars, and end-use) are compared on an equal economic basis, such as costs per kilometre driven. Production costs of these fuels range 16–22 €/GJ_HHV now, down to 9–13 €/GJ_HHV in future (2030). This performance assumes both certain technological developments as well as the availability of biomass at 3 €/GJ_HHV. The feedstock costs strongly influence the resulting biofuel costs by 2–3 €/GJ_fuel for each €/GJ_HHV feedstock difference. In biomass producing regions such as Latin America or the former USSR, the four fuels could be produced at 7–11 €/GJ_HHV compared to diesel and gasoline costs of 7 and 8 €/GJ (excluding distribution, excise and VAT; at crude oil prices of ∼35 €/bbl or 5.7 €/GJ). The uncertainties in the biofuels production costs of the four selected biofuels are 15–30%. When applied in cars, biofuels have driving costs in ICEVs of about 0.18–0.24 €/km now (fuel excise duty and VAT excluded) and may be about 0.18 in future. The cars’ contribution to these costs is much larger than the fuels’ contribution. Large-scale gasification, thorough gas cleaning, and micro-biological processes for hydrolysis and fermentation are key major fields for RD&D efforts, next to consistent market development and larger scale deployment of those technologies.     

Estimates of technically available woody biomass feedstock from natural forests and willow biomass crops for two locations in New York State

A Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to estimate the technically available woody biomass from forests and willow biomass crops within a 40 km radius of Syracuse and Tupper Lake, NY. Land cover and land use data were used to identify the available land base and restrictions were applied for slope, parcel size and designated wetlands. Approximately 222,984 oven-dry tonnes (odt) of forest biomass are technically available annually around Syracuse, from 165,848 hectares (ha) of timberland. There are 67,880 ha of agricultural land technically available for growing willow biomass crops, which could produce 38,181 odt yr^?1 if 5% of this land was used and yields were 11.25 odt ha^?1 yr^?1. There are approximately 215,300 odt of forest biomass technically available annually around Tupper Lake from 211,500 ha of timberland. There are 781 ha of technically available agricultural land in this area so willow biomass production would be minimal. While these two areas have different land cover and land use characteristics, both have the potential to produce significant amounts of woody biomass.     

European biomass resource potential and costs

The objective of this study is to assess the European (EU27⁺ and Ukraine) cost and supply potential for biomass resources. Three methodological steps can be distinguished (partly based on studies explained elsewhere in this volume) (i) an evaluation of the available ‘surplus’ land, (ii) a modeled productivity and (iii) an economic assessment for 13 typical bioenergy crops. Results indicate that the total available land for bioenergy crop production – following a ‘food first’ paradigm – could amount to 900 000 km² by 2030. Three scenarios were constructed that take into account different development directions and rates of change, mainly for the agricultural productivity of food production. Feedstock supply of dedicated bioenergy crop estimates varies between 1.7 and 12.8 EJ y^?1. In addition, agricultural residues and forestry residues can potentially add to this 3.1–3.9 EJ y^?1 and 1.4–5.4 EJ y^?1 respectively. First generation feedstock supply is available at production costs of 5–15 € GJ^?1 compared to 1.5–4.5 € GJ^?1 for second generation feedstocks. Costs for agricultural residues are 1–7 € GJ^?1 and forestry residues 2–4 € GJ^?1. Large variation exists in biomass production potential and costs between European regions, 280 (NUTS2) regions specified. Regions that stand out with respect to high potential and low costs are large parts of Poland, the Baltic States, Romania, Bulgaria and Ukraine. In Western Europe, France, Spain and Italy are moderately attractive following the low cost high potential criterion.     

Exploration of regional and global cost–supply curves of biomass energy from short-rotation crops at abandoned cropland and rest land under four IPCC SRES land-use scenarios

We explored the production cost of energy crops at abandoned agricultural land and at rest land at a regional and a global level to the year 2050 using four different land-use scenarios. The estimations were based on grid cell data on the productivity of short-rotation crops on the available land over time and assumptions regarding the capital and the labour input required to reach these productivity levels. It was concluded that large amounts of grown biomass at abandoned agricultural land and rest land, 130–270 EJ yr^?1 (about 40–70% of the present energy consumption) may be produced at costs below $2 GJ^?1 by 2050 (present lower limit of cost of coal). Interesting regions because of their low production cost and significant potentials are the Former USSR, Oceania, Eastern and Western Africa and East Asia. Such low costs presume significant land productivity improvements over time and cost reductions due to learning and capital-labour substitution. An assessment of biomass fuel cost, using the primary biomass energy costs, showed that the future costs of biomass liquid fuels may be in the same order of the present diesel production costs, although this may change in the long term. Biomass-derived electricity costs are at present slightly higher than electricity baseload costs and may directly compete with estimated future production costs of fossil fuel electricity with CO₂ sequestration. The present world electricity consumption of around 20 PWh yr^?1 may be generated in 2050 at costs below $45 MWh^?1 in A1 and B1 and below $55 MWh^?1 in A2 and B2. At costs of $60 MWh^?1, about 18 (A2) to 53 (A1) PWh yr^?1 can be produced.     

Feasibility of pico-hydro and photovoltaic hybrid power systems for remote villages in Cameroon

Pico-hydro (pH) and photovoltaic (PV) hybrid systems incorporating a biogas generator have been simulated for remote villages in Cameroon using a load of 73 kWh/day and 8.3 kWp. Renewable energy systems were simulated using HOMER, the load profile of a hostel in Cameroon, the solar insolation of Garoua and the flow of river Mungo. For a 40% increase in the cost of imported power system components, the cost of energy was found to be either 0.352 €/kWh for a 5 kW pico-hydro generator with 72 kWh storage or 0.396 €/kWh for a 3 kWp photovoltaic generator with 36 kWh storage. These energy costs were obtained with a biomass resource cost of 25 €/tonne. The pH and PV hybrid systems both required the parallel operation of a 3.3 kW battery inverter with a 10 kW biogas generator. The pH/biogas/battery systems simulated for villages located in the south of Cameroon with a flow rate of at least 92 l/s produced lower energy costs than PV/biogas/battery systems simulated for villages in the north of Cameroon with an insolation level of at least 5.55 kWh/m²/day. For a single-wire grid extension cost of 5000 €/km, operation and maintenance costs of 125 €/yr/km and a grid power price of 0.1 €/kWh, the breakeven grid extension distances were found to be 12.9 km for pH/biogas/battery systems and 15.2 km for PV/biogas/battery systems respectively. Investments in biogas based renewable energy systems could thus be considered in the National Energy Action Plan of Cameroon for the supply of energy to key sectors involved in poverty alleviation.     

Worldwide commercial development of bioenergy with a focus on energy crop-based projects

Bioenergy consumption is greatest in countries with heavy subsidies or tax incentives, such as China, Brazil, and Sweden. Conversion of forest residues and agricultural residues to charcoal, district heat and home heating are the most common forms of bioenergy. Biomass electric generation feedstocks are predominantly forest residues (including black liquor), bagasse, and other agricultural residues. Biofuel feedstocks include sugar from sugarcane (in Brazil), starch from maize grain (in the US), and oil seeds (soy or rapeseed) for biodiesel (in the US, EU, and Brazil). Of the six large land areas of the world reviewed (China, EU, US, Brazil, Canada, Australia), total biomass energy consumptions amounts to 17.1 EJ. Short-rotation woody crops (SRWC) established in Brazil, New Zealand, and Australia over the past 25 years equal about 50,000 km². SRWC plantings in China may be in the range of 70,000–100,000 km². SRWC and other energy crops established in the US and EU amount to less than 1000 km². With some exceptions (most notably in Sweden and Brazil), the SRWC have been established for purposes other than as dedicated bioenergy feedstocks, however, portions of the crops are (or are planned to be) used for bioenergy production. New renewable energy incentives, greenhouse gas emission targets, synergism with industrial waste management projects, and oil prices exceeding 60 $ Bbl⁻¹ (in 2005) are major drivers for SRWC or energy crop based bioenergy projects.     

Feasibility assessment of poplar bioenergy systems in the Southern Europe

A detailed reliability assessment of bioenergy production systems based on poplar cultivation was made. The aim of this assessment was to demonstrate the Economic feasibility of implementing poplar biomass production for power generation in Spain. The assessment considers the following chain of energy generation: cultivation and harvesting, and transportation and electricity generation in biomass power plants (10, 25 and 50 MW). Twelve scenarios were analysed in accordance with the following: two harvesting methods (high density packed stems and chip production in the field), two crop distributions around the power plant and three power plant sizes. The results show that the cost of biomass delivered at power plant ranges from 18.65 to 23.96 € Mg^?1 dry basis. According to power plant size, net profits range from 3 to 22 million € per yr.Sensibility analyses applied to capital cost at the power plant and to biomass production in the field demonstrate that they do not affect the feasibility of these systems. Reliability is improved if benefits through selling CO₂ emission credits are taken into account.This study clears up the Economic uncertainty of poplar biomass energy systems that already has been accepted as environmentally friendlier and as offering better energetic performance.     

The impact of sustainability criteria on the costs and potentials of bioenergy production – Applied for case studies in Brazil and Ukraine

The goal of this paper is to analyse the impact of the implementation of a certification system on the management system (costs) of and the availability of land (quantity) for bioenergy production. Twelve socio-economic areas of concern (food supply, child labour, (minimum) wages, employment, health care and education) and environmental areas of concern (soil erosion, depletion of fresh water resources, nutrient losses and soil nutrient depletion, pollution from chemicals and biodiversity) are included. Since there is no generally accepted definition of sustainability, a loose and strict set of criteria are defined. Short rotation coppice (SRC) production systems in Ukraine and South East Brazil in 2015 are taken as case studies. The results indicate that it seems feasible to produce biomass for energy purposes at reasonable cost levels and meeting strict sustainability criteria at the same time. The loose set of criteria has no impact on the costs of energy crop production, which are calculated to be 1.7 € GJ^?1 in Brazil and 2.1 € GJ^?1 in Ukraine. The strict set of criteria results in an increase of the costs of energy crop production by 42 % in Brazil and 14 % in Ukraine. In general, compliance with strict socio-economic criteria has a limited impact on the costs, because SRC is relatively labour extensive. Strict environmental criteria likely have a larger impact.     

Future prospects for production of methanol and hydrogen from biomass

Technical and economic prospects of the future production of methanol and hydrogen from biomass have been evaluated. A technology review, including promising future components, was made, resulting in a set of promising conversion concepts. Flowsheeting models were made to analyse the technical performance. Results were used for economic evaluations. Overall energy efficiencies are around 55% HHV for methanol and around 60% for hydrogen production. Accounting for the lower energy quality of fuel compared to electricity, once-through concepts perform better than the concepts aimed for fuel only production. Hot gas cleaning can contribute to a better performance. Systems of 400 MW_th input produce biofuels at US$ 8–12/GJ, this is above the current gasoline production price of US$ 4–6/GJ. This cost price is largely dictated by the capital investments. The outcomes for the various system types are rather comparable, although concepts focussing on optimised fuel production with little or no electricity co-production perform somewhat better. Hydrogen concepts using ceramic membranes perform well due to their higher overall efficiency combined with modest investment. Long-term (2020) cost reductions reside in cheaper biomass, technological learning, and application of large scales up to 2000 MW_th. This could bring the production costs of biofuels in the US$ 5–7/GJ range. Biomass-derived methanol and hydrogen are likely to become competitive fuels tomorrow.     

Harmonising bioenergy resource potentials—Methodological lessons from review of state of the art bioenergy potential assessments

Published estimates of the potential of bioenergy vary widely, mainly due to the heterogeneity of methodologies, assumptions and datasets employed. These discrepancies are confusing for policy and it is thus important to have scientific clarity on the basis of the assessment outcomes. Such clear insights can enable harmonisation of the different assessments. This review explores current state of the art approaches and methodologies used in bioenergy assessments, and identifies key elements that are critical determinants of bioenergy potentials. We apply the lessons learnt from the review exercise to compare and harmonise a selected set of country based bioenergy potential studies, and provide recommendations for conducting more comprehensive assessments. Depending on scenario assumptions, the harmonised technical biomass potential estimates up to 2030 in the selected countries range from 5.2 to 27.3 EJ in China, 1.1 to 18.8 EJ in India, 2.0 to 10.9 EJ in Indonesia, 1.6 to 7.0 EJ in Mozambique and 9.3 to 23.5 EJ in the US. From the review, we observed that generally, current studies do not cover all the basic (sustainability) elements expected in an ideal bioenergy assessment and there are marked differences in the level of parametric detail and methodological transparency between studies. Land availability and suitability lack spatial detail and especially degraded and marginal lands are poorly evaluated. Competition for water resources is hardly taken into account and biomass yields are based mostly on crude ecological zoning criteria. A few studies take into account improvements in management of agricultural and forestry production systems, but the underlying assumptions are hardly discussed. Competition for biomass resources among the various applications is crudely analysed in most studies and key assumptions such as demographic dynamics, biodiversity protection criteria, etc. are not explicitly discussed. To facilitate more comprehensive bioenergy assessments, we recommend an integrated analytical framework that includes all the key factors, employs high resolution geo-referenced datasets and accounts for potential feedback effects.     

Evaluating the impact of three incentive programs on the economics of cofiring willow biomass with coal in New York State

Plantations of fast-growing willow shrubs are being promoted as a source quality biomass feedstock for bioenergy and bioproducts in New York State (NY). In the near-term, cofiring of the feedstock—in combination with other woody biomass—with coal in existing utility power boilers is considered to be the most promising conversion method for energy generation. Despite the clear technological viability and associated environmental benefits, cofiring of willow has not been widely adopted. The relatively high production cost of the willow feedstock, which is over twice that of coal, is the primary reason for this lack of interest. Taxes that account for some of the social costs of using coal and/or incentives that appropriate value for some of the social benefits of using willow are essential for eliminating most or the entire current price differential. This paper presents an integrated analysis of the economics of power generation from cofiring willow biomass feedstock with coal, from the perspective of the grower, aggregator and the power plant. Emphasis is placed on analyzing the relative impact of a green premium price, a closed-loop biomass tax credit, and payments to growers under the proposed Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) harvesting exemption policy. The CRP payments reduced the delivered cost of willow by 36–35%, to $1.90 GJ⁻¹ and $1.70 GJ⁻¹, under current and increased yield conditions, respectively. These prices are still high, relative to coal. Other incentives are required to ensure commercial viability. The required levels of green premium price (0.4–1.0 cents kWh⁻¹) and biomass tax credit (0.75–2.4 cents kWh⁻¹) vary depending on whether the incentives were being applied by themselves or in combination, and whether current yield or potential increased yields were being considered. In the near term, cofiring willow biomass and coal can be an economically viable option for power generation in NY if the expected overall beneficial effects associated with the production and use of the biomass is accounted for.     

Short-rotation forestry of birch,maple, poplar and willow in Flanders (Belgium) I—Biomass production after 4 years of tree growth

During the last three decades, oil crises, agricultural surpluses and global climate change enhanced the interest in short-rotation forestry (SRF). In this study, the biomass production of birch (Betula pendula Roth), maple (Acer pseudoplatanus L.—Tintigny), poplar (Populus trichocarpa × deltoides—Hoogvorst) and willow (Salix viminalis—Orm) growing under a short-rotation (SR) management system were compared after a 4 years period. The plantation was established on former agricultural land. The sandy soil had a mean pH of 4.5 and a mean carbon content of 1.0%. Survival rates after 4 years were 75.8%, 96.8%, 86.3% and 97.6% for birch, maple, poplar and willow, respectively. The mean actual annual biomass production for these four species amounted to 2.6, 1.2, 3.5 and 3.4 t DM ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, respectively. The large variation in biomass production at the different plots of the plantation could not be explained by the measured soil parameters. Biomass production results found here were in the lower range of values reported in literature. However, in contrast to most other studies, no weed control, fertilisation or irrigation was applied in this experiment. As marginal agricultural soils are suboptimal for the growth of poplar and willow, birch can be considered as a very interesting alternative for the establishment of SR plantations in Flanders.