Biofuel production potentials in Europe: Sustainable use of cultivated land and pastures,Part II: Land use scenarios

Europe's agricultural land (including Ukraine) comprise of 164 million hectares of cultivated land and 76 million hectares of permanent pasture. A “food first” paradigm was applied in the estimations of land potentially available for the production of biofuel feedstocks, without putting at risk food supply or nature conservation.Three land conversion scenarios were formulated: (i) A base scenario, that reflects developments under current policy settings and respects current trends in nature conservation and organic farming practices, by assuming moderate overall yield increases; (ii) an environment oriented scenario with higher emphasis on sustainable farming practices and maintenance of biodiversity; and (iii) an energy oriented scenario considering more substantial land use conversions including the use of pasture land.By 2030 some 44–53 million hectares of cultivated land could be used for bioenergy feedstock production. The energy oriented scenario includes an extra 19 million hectares pasture land for feedstocks for second-generation biofuel production chains. Available land is foremost to be found in Eastern Europe, where substantial cultivated areas can be freed up through sustainable gains in yield in the food and feed sector.Agricultural residues of food and feed crops may provide an additional source for biofuel production. When assuming that up to 50% of crop residues can be used without risks for agricultural sustainability, we estimate that up to 246 Mt agricultural residues could be available for biofuel production, comparable to feedstock plantations of some 15–20 million hectares.     

Climate change and energy policy in Eastern Europe: Two scenarios for the future

The citizens of Poland, Eastern Germany, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Romania inhabit perhaps the most polluted environments in the world, largely because of their countries' inefficient use of energy. Energy use is two to three times greater per unit of economic output than in Western Europe. Energy inefficiency also constrains economic growth by diverting capital to unproductive use. As much as 40% of all industrial investment in Poland was consumed in energy production.The emerging democracies of Eastern Europe have embarked on reforms to make their economies more efficient. We assess their potential for energy efficiency and apply end-use analysis in an energy end-use economic model to evaluate future energy use in the region. We assume that Eastern Europe will approach current Western living standards over the next three decades and that this will in turn increase energy consumption. We have found, nevertheless, that Eastern European nations could hold energy demand virtually constant through structural reform and technical energy-efficiency improvement. The six countries in the region could save as much as 3.5 exajoules per year, with savings yielding an economic benefit of $300 million annually.Capturing the energy-efficiency potential in Eastern Europe would require a combination of market forces and policy initiatives. Such optimistic prediction, however, should not be taken at face value. Financial and technical constraints will impede some of the potential gains in energy efficiency in Eastern Europe. Overcoming them will require national leadership and decisive international cooperation.     

Biomass production and allocation in Jatropha curcas L. seedlings under different levels of drought stress

In a greenhouse experiment we applied three levels of drought stress and monitored growth variables and biomass production of Jatropha curcas seedlings propagated from three seed accessions. We determined biomass allocation, allometric relationships and plant traits. Well-watered J. curcas seedlings grew 0.81 ± 0.15 cm day^?1 in length and produced 1.49 ± 0.31 g dry biomass day^?1. Under medium stress (40% plant available water) the plants maintained a similar stem shape, although they grew at lower rate (stem length: 0.28 ± 0.11 cm day^?1; dry biomass production: 0.64 ± 0.18 g day^?1). Seedlings under extreme drought stress (no irrigation) stopped growing, started shedding leaves and showed shrinking stem diameter from the 12th day after the start of the drought treatment. The drought treatment did not influence the wood density (0.26 g cm^?3). The root/shoot ratio of the wet treatment was 0.27, which is low compared to other tropical trees. Both the biomass allocation and root/shoot were significantly influenced by drought. Plants of the different accessions were uniform in biomass production and plant traits. The allometric relationship predicting total aboveground biomass (B) with the stem diameter (D) (B = 0.029 × D^2.33; R² = 0.89) fits well in universal scaling models in which the exponent is expected to converge to ～2.67 at plant maturity. Based on a small validation data set from mature J. curcas individuals this hypothesis could be confirmed. A second regression model predicts the total leaf area (LA) as a function of stem diameter (LA = 2.03 × D^2.41; R² = 0.95). The estimated transpiration crop coefficient K_cb ranged from 0.51 to 0.60 for the well-watered plants.     

Climate change opportunities: Clean energy in Central and Eastern Europe

The Kyoto Protocol's flexible market mechanisms (Joint Implementation (JI) and International Emissions Trading (IET), for the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) provide nations with the option of trading emission reductions between countries, and entities within them. JI is an attractive means to raise capital and to generate additional income for renewable energy, energy efficiency, CHP and fuel switching projects. At present at least 60 JI projects are at various stages of development in the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs). Matthew Clayton, ESD, UK gives an overview of the current situation and opportunities in the region.     

Impacts of structural changes and energy savings on emission-reduction strategies for Central and Eastern Europe

Strategies for reductions of emissions and depositions are described, with special regard for countries in transition. The influences of structural changes and energy-saving measures, as well as the effects of reductions of multiple pollutants, are analyzed for four countries in Central and Eastern Europe and for different scenarios with varying final energy demands, assume CO₂-emission reductions, and country-specific factors. The results show that emission-reduction costs and optimal pollution-control measures differ significantly from those in Western European countries and also among the analyzed countries.     

Biofuel production potentials in Europe: Sustainable use of cultivated land and pastures. Part I: Land productivity potentials

IIASA's agro-ecological zones modelling framework has been extended for biofuel productivity assessments distinguishing five main groups of feedstocks covering a wide range of agronomic conditions and energy production pathways, namely: woody lignocellulosic plants, herbaceous lignocellulosic plants, oil crops, starch crops and sugar crops. A uniform Pan-European land resources database was compiled at the spatial resolution of 1 km². Suitability and productivity assessments were carried out by matching climate characteristics with plant requirements, calculating annual biomass increments or yields including consideration of soil and terrain characteristics of each grid-cell.Potential biomass productivity and associated energy yields were calculated for each grid-cell. Spatial distributions of suitabilities of biofuel feedstocks in Europe were generated for each individual feedstock as well as for the five biofuel feedstock groups. Estimated agronomical attainable yields, both in terms of biomass (kg ha^?1) as well as biofuel energy equivalent (GJ ha^?1), were mapped and tabulated by agriculture and pasture land cover classes as derived from the CORINE land cover database. Results have been further aggregated by administrative units at NUTS 2 level.     

Energy demand and carbon emissions under different development scenarios for Shanghai,China

In this paper, Shanghai's CO₂ emissions from 1995 to 2006 were estimated following the IPCC guidelines. The energy demand and CO₂ emissions were also projected until 2020, and the CO₂ mitigation potential of the planned government policies and measures that are not yet implemented but will be enacted or adopted by the end of 2020 in Shanghai were estimated. The results show that Shanghai's total CO₂ emissions in 2006 were 184 million tons of CO₂. During 1995–2006, the annual growth rate of CO₂ emissions in Shanghai was 6.22%. Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, total energy demand in Shanghai will rise to 300 million tons of coal equivalent in 2020, which is 3.91 times that of 2005. Total CO₂ emissions in 2010 and 2020 will reach 290 and 630 million tons, respectively, under the BAU scenario. Under a basic-policy (BP) scenario, total energy demand in Shanghai will be 160 million tons of coal equivalent in 2020, which is 2.06 times that of 2005. Total CO₂ emissions in 2010 and 2020 in Shanghai will be 210 and 330 million tons, respectively, 28% and 48% lower than those of the business-as-usual scenario. The results show that the currently planned energy conservation policies for the future, represented by the basic-policy scenario, have a large CO₂ mitigation potential for Shanghai.     

Energy security under de-carbonization scenarios: An assessment framework and evaluation under different technology and policy choices

How would a low-carbon energy transformation affect energy security? This paper proposes a framework to evaluate energy security under long-term energy scenarios generated by integrated assessment models. Energy security is defined as low vulnerability of vital energy systems, delineated along geographic and sectoral boundaries. The proposed framework considers vulnerability as a combination of risks associated with inter-regional energy trade and resilience reflected in energy intensity and diversity of energy sources and technologies. We apply this framework to 43 scenarios generated by the MESSAGE model as part of the Global Energy Assessment, including one baseline scenario and 42 ‘low-carbon’ scenarios where the global mean temperature increase is limited to 2°C over the pre-industrial level. By and large, low-carbon scenarios are associated with lower energy trade and higher diversity of energy options, especially in the transport sector. A few risks do emerge under low-carbon scenarios in the latter half of the century. They include potentially high trade in natural gas and hydrogen and low diversity of electricity sources. Trade is typically lower in scenarios which emphasize demand-side policies as well as non-tradable energy sources (nuclear and renewables) while diversity is higher in scenarios which limit the penetration of intermittent renewables.     

Land use and carbon mitigation in Europe: A survey of the potentials of different alternatives

This paper surveys studies applied to Europe that analyse carbon emission mitigation alternatives involving the use of land. We analyse a variety of alternatives that include land-use changes, forest management and bioenergy production. Our aim is to approximate the aggregate amount of carbon offsets that can be achieved through these alternatives and to show to what extent the results of the different studies are compatible and take into account the fact that land is a finite resource. Finally, based on the surveyed studies, we estimate the potential contribution of these alternatives to the goals of emission reduction proposed by the European Union for the years 2020 and 2050. Taking into account the results of the different studies analysed in this survey, land-based alternatives can contribute from 13% to 52% of the European proposed target by 2020. The implementation of these alternatives would concurrently require from 8% to 30% of EU-25 agricultural land to be afforested or diverted to bioenergy crops in this period.     

Aviation fuel and future oil production scenarios

Most aviation fuels are jet fuels originating from crude oil. Crude oil must be refined to be useful and jet fuel is only one of many products that can be derived from crude oil. Jet fuel is extracted from the middle distillates fraction and competes, for example, with the production of diesel.     

Cost and CO2 aspects of future vehicle options in Europe under new energy policy scenarios

New electrified vehicle concepts are about to enter the market in Europe. The expected gains in environmental performance for these new vehicle types are associated with higher technology costs. In parallel, the fuel efficiency of internal combustion engine vehicles and hybrids is continuously improved, which in turn advances their environmental performance but also leads to additional technology costs versus today’s vehicles. The present study compares the well-to-wheel CO₂ emissions, costs and CO₂ abatement costs of generic European cars, including a gasoline vehicle, diesel vehicle, gasoline hybrid, diesel hybrid, plug in hybrid and battery electric vehicle. The predictive comparison is done for the snapshots 2010, 2020 and 2030 under a new energy policy scenario for Europe. The results of the study show clearly that the electrification of vehicles offer significant possibilities to reduce specific CO₂ emissions in road transport, when supported by adequate policies to decarbonise the electricity generation. Additional technology costs for electrified vehicle types are an issue in the beginning, but can go down to enable payback periods of less than 5 years and very competitive CO₂ abatement costs, provided that market barriers can be overcome through targeted policy support that mainly addresses their initial cost penalty.     

A full economic analysis of switchgrass under different scenarios in Italy estimated by BEE model

Three different scenarios of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) cultivation (high, mild and low) in two different environmental conditions (North and South Italy) were economically analysed by the computerized model BEE. The dataset was mostly generated from an 8.6 ha field of switchgrass planted in 2002 at the University of Bologna (North Italy). Annual equivalent costs (AEC) and break-even yield (BEY, i.e. the dry matter yield at which cost equals selling price) of each scenario were calculated to assess the feasibility of each scenario. AEC ranged from €511 to €1.257 ha⁻¹ being always higher in northern than southern regions. As expected, BEY varied to an extent depending on input levels. BEY was clearly higher under intensive cropping systems (H_S) compared to mild-(M_S) and low-input (L_S) scenarios. However, even for M_S or L_S, BEY generally exceeded the harvested yield. Therefore, we can conclude that, at the market price of €55 Mg⁻¹ (dry basis), switchgrass can be hardly grown both in North and South Italy. However, the biomass market price appeared surprisingly underestimated if compared to the unit energy price of crude oil, therefore a desirable increase of biomass price could be expected in the next few years. Sensitivity analysis showed that biomass price strongly affects BEY, and this was especially found in H_S. Furthermore, the differences in BEY between L_S and H_S clearly decreased with increasing market prices. Therefore, H_S could be better indicated than L_S at high market prices. Switchgrass was found to be more profitable than some conventional crops to an extent depending on the yield higher than BEY (Y_i). At the current biomass price, Y_i was from less than 1 Mg ha⁻¹ (maize and alfalfa) to more than 4 Mg ha⁻¹ (sugarbeet).     

Solar hydrogen from North Africa to Europe through greenstream: A simulation-based analysis of blending scenarios and production plant sizing

Blending green hydrogen within the gas infrastructure is seen as the first move towards Europe's climate neutrality by 2050. Especially, Europe and North African have privileged role in energy cooperation sharing a woven and complex set of natural resources, knowledge, infrastructure, clear goals towards sustainable development. Developing common projects about hydrogen can mutually help both Europe and North Africa to achieve more sustainable, reliable and modern energy systems.This paper simulates the Greenstream gas corridor (connecting Libya to Italy) under increasing hydrogen blending scenarios using a transient and multi-component fluid-dynamic model of the gas transmission system.The additional compression energy required and the compressors’ operating hours are evaluated under the hypothesis that the energy content of the transported gas is maintained. The hydrogen profiles needed to generate the blends are obtained and used to optimally size a photovoltaic-powered electrolysis system, minimizing the compressed hydrogen storage.The results indicate that the additional energy costs of transporting hydrogen blends are up to 32.5% higher than natural gas transport, while negligibly impacting the overall efficiency of energy transport. The mismatch between solar hydrogen production and pipeline receiving potential highlights a challenge to be tackled to boost intersectoral integration.     

Oil production and macroeconomic adjustment under different wage assumptions

Oil production and its macroeconomic effects were given extensive coverage, in the UK in particular, during the early 1980s, using the principles of the Dornbusch (1976) model. However this framework has proved to be inadequate owing to its exclusion of wealth effects from developments in the current account, and by its insufficient attention to non-oil output supply considerations. This paper attempts to overcome such deficiencies in analysing the macroeconomic effects of oil production, and is based upon an economy where the spending effect from oil production dominates the resource movement effect. The production of oil not only generates additional demand for non-oil output and money, but also contributes to a major improvement in the current account performance. Such an improvement creates wealth effects, which have a feedback effect on the economy. Oil production is also likely to have an impact on the supply of non-oil output. The wage-price nexus proves to be particularly important for explaining developments in non-oil output supply in this regard, both during and after the period of oil production. Adjustments in wages to developments in prices, is given considerable emphasis here. The primary objective here is to develop a framework conducive to the analysis of the macroeconomic effects arising from oil production, in a country where such oil production possesses certain characteristics. Because of the model's complexity, a mathematical derivation of its dynamics of adjustment and comparative statics has been downgraded, in favour of a simulation analysis of the model under alternative wage adjustment assumptions and given oil production characteristics. This enables a more detailed discussion of the macroeconomic adjustment processes at work. From these simulations it becomes apparent that the macroeconomic adjustment process for non-oil output, in particular, is crucially affected by the wage adjustment assumption adopted.     

Economic restructuring in Eastern Europe and acid rain abatement strategies

Acid rain abatement in Europe are currently being discussed in view of the expiration of the Helsinki Protocol on SO₂ emission reduction. The changing energy situation in Eastern European countries is expected to have an influence on the deposition pattern in Europe. The paper presents a consistent energy scenario for Eastern European countries and compares optimal strategies to reduce SO₂ emissions. These strategies are based on runs with the RAINS model in which environmental targets have been set based on critical loads for sulphur. The analysis shows that economic restructuring and efficiency improvements in Eastern European countries, as well as in Western Europe, may result in significantly lower sulphur abatement. costs. Potential assistance to Eastern Europe to guarantee desired environmental standards in Western countries should therefore focus not only on providing emission control devices but also on the success of the economic transition process.     

Multi-objective optimization of a hydrogen production through the HyS process powered by solar energy in different scenarios

Thermochemical or hybrid cycles powered by concentrated solar energy are a very promising way to produce an effective clean hydrogen through the water splitting, in terms of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and power production sustainability. SOL2HY2 is an European project focused on this goal. It deepens the so-called HyS process in a closed or partially open version using a proper SO₂ depolarized electrolyser, and moreover, it investigates key materials and process solutions, along the entire production chain. However, the identification of the best solution to obtain a suitable hydrogen in terms of cost, efficiency, availability of energy and material, sharing of renewable energy source, continuity of operation in different locations and plant sizes, poses many challenges in terms of flexibility and complexity of the system. In fact, it involves various chemical equipment, different solar and thermal storage technologies, and variable operative conditions with different reaction temperatures and mixture concentrations. Hence it arises the importance to have a tool for the investigation of this system.In this paper, data analysis and multi-objective techniques are used to study and optimize the process under consideration. Several mathematical methods have been exploited to make the best use of the available data, such as Design of Experiments techniques, meta-modeling strategies and genetic algorithms. All these methods have been implemented in the open source environments Scilab and R.     

Hydrogen production potentials and fermentative characteristics of various substrates with different heat-pretreated natural microflora

Batch tests were carried out to investigate the effects of heat-pretreated inocula on the fermentative hydrogen production characteristics of various types of substrates. A total of 8 different inocula and 4 different substrates (starch, glycerol, oil and peptone) were used. Heat pretreatment of the inocula was conducted in order to harvest spore-forming clostridial bacteria. Significant hydrogen production potentials were observed from starch (20.5–174.4 ml H₂/g-COD_starch) and glycerol (11.5–38.1 ml H₂/g-COD_glycerol); however, almost no hydrogen was produced from oil and peptone. When starch was used as a substrate, two different fermentation patterns were observed, according to the inocula: butyric acid-type and ethanol-type fermentation. Polymerase chain reaction combined with denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (PCR-DGGE) analysis was conducted to compare the bacterial structures cultivated on the starch medium. Different species of clostridial bacteria were observed between the butyric acid-type and ethanol-type fermentation cultures. When glycerol was used as a substrate, 1,3-propanediol was the main by-product with each inoculum. The results of the present study suggest that simultaneous production of ethanol or 1,3-propanediol in addition to hydrogen is a more promising strategy than conventional hydrogen production in acidogenesis.     

Optimal combination of energy crops under different policy scenarios; The case of Northern Greece

Energy crops production is considered as environmentally benign and socially acceptable, offering ecological benefits over fossil fuels through their contribution to the reduction of greenhouse gases and acidifying emissions. Energy crops are subjected to persistent policy support by the EU, despite their limited or even marginally negative impact on the greenhouse effect. The present study endeavors to optimize the agricultural income generated by energy crops in a remote and disadvantageous region, with the assistance of linear programming. The optimization concerns the income created from soybean, sunflower (proxy for energy crop), and corn. Different policy scenarios imposed restrictions on the value of the subsidies as a proxy for EU policy tools, the value of inputs (costs of capital and labor) and different irrigation conditions. The results indicate that the area and the imports per energy crop remain unchanged, independently of the policy scenario enacted. Furthermore, corn cultivation contributes the most to iFncome maximization, whereas the implemented CAP policy plays an incremental role in uptaking an energy crop. A key implication is that alternative forms of motivation should be provided to the farmers beyond the financial ones in order the extensive use of energy crops to be achieved.     

Hydrogen production from biological systems under different illumination conditions

Hydrogen is a natural by-product of several microbial driven biochemical reactions, mainly in anaerobic fermentation processes. In addition, certain microorganisms produce enzymes by which H₂ from water may be obtained if an outside energy source, like sunlight, is provided. Biophotolysis is a biological process which involves solar energy and algae clusters to convert water into hydrogen. Algae pigments absorb solar energy and enzymes in the cell act as catalysts to split water into hydrogen and oxygen. There are many research activities studying hydrogen production from biological systems cyanobacteria and green algae and some studies present a complete outline of the main available pathways to improve the photosynthetic H₂ production [1] and [2].Efficiency (energy produced from hydrogen divided by solar energy) of such processes can be estimated up to 10%. This value has to be increased for a large-scale hydrogen production. The effect of different artificial illumination conditions on H₂ production was studied for green algae cultures (Chlamydomonas reinhardtii). Results will be used to design a high-efficiency photobioreactor for a large-scale hydrogen production.     

Biomass resources and costs: Assessment in different EU countries

The objective of the CHRISGAS Project in the field of biomass resources was to make an assessment of the biomass resources and costs available for raw materials procurement for future biomass CHRISGAS technology hydrogen plants in different EU countries, as well as to investigate possible locations for the erection of CHRISGAS plants. The assessment work included 11 European countries (comprising 77% of the EU territory) and Norway. A specific assessment methodology has been developed and applied for this purpose obtaining a total estimate of 365 Tg y^?1 of potential forest and agricultural residues, and after the application of different technical and environmental restrictions, the available resources are calculated to be 205 Tg y^?1 (56% of the estimated potential). The highest harvesting costs have been calculated for Italy (33.2 and 74.0 € Mg^?1, respectively, for agricultural and forest residues) and the lowest ones were obtained in Portugal (21.4 and 27.4 € Mg^?1). In Northern and Central European countries the highest biomass collection costs have been determined for Norway, 37.6 and 27.8 € Mg^?1; and the lowest for Poland, 15.6 and 11.5 € Mg^?1, for agricultural and forest residues, respectively. Based on the developed methodology, a GIS tool (BIORAISE) for the assessment of the cited biomasses and costs in Southern EU countries was created and placed in Internet. The innovation and scientific relevance of this work is the development of a comprehensive and harmonized methodology for agricultural and forestry resources assessment in different EU countries as well as the implementation of a GIS tool that permits an easy extraction of data on quantity and cost of biomass resources in five Southern EU countries.