基于改进SVM的叶元数目预测

根据外界温度预测叶元数目在建立虚拟植物生长模型中有着重要意义.但是由于环境存在高噪声,不能通过简单的SVM或者最小二乘进行回归预测.本文从信息几何角度,构造具有数据依赖性的核函数,克服建模数据的高噪声、非线性,从而能准确预测叶元数目与温度函数关系.最后把模型应用于棉花生长模型的叶元预测,并和标准SVM、最小二乘进行比较.实验证明新模型在准确度上有较大提高.     

基于支持向量机的预测函数控制

针对化工过程存在的强非线性生产过程，提出了基于支持向量机技术预测模型的预测函数控制方法。利用支持向量回归的方法对非线性过程进行建模，采用预测函数控制方法进行控制。针对具有强非线性连续搅拌反应釜过程进行仿真，仿真结果表明：支持向量机的建模方法可以有效地解决强非线性的化工过程的建模问题，并且具有较好的泛化能力，基于这种预测模型的预测函数控制具有较好的控制性能和良好的跟踪能力及抗干扰能力。     

MISO系统的混合核函数LS-SVM建模

将LS—SVM非线性建模思想应用于锌钡白转窑煅烧过程的MISO系统建模．研究发现,系统选取不同的核函数,对模型的拟合性能和预测(泛化)性能有很大的影响．采用基于混合核函数的LS—SVM建模方法解决上述问题,该方法可使系统具有满意的模型拟合输出,能有效抑制局部核函数所引起的预测输出波动,取得了良好的综合辨识效果．     

SVM在配方感官评估中的应用

支持向量机(SVM)是近年来在统计学习理论的基础上发展起来的一种新的模式识别方法,在解决小样本、非线性及高维模式识别问题中表现出许多特有的优势。本文从SVM的理论分析切入,阐述了SVM的基本原理、特性,提出用回归函数估计SVM进行建模来解决感官评估多类划分问题,并对其实际应用进行了算法选择、参数设计和实验验证。     

基于L S-SVM 的非线性预测控制技术

探讨了利用最小二乘支持向量机(LS—SVM)进行非线性系统辨识的方法，LS—SVM用等式约束代替传统支持向量机中不等式约束，求解过程从解QP问题变成解一组等式方程，将得到的LS—SVM模型应用到非线性预测控制，提出了基于LS—SVM模型的非线性预测控制算法，通过CSTR过程仿真表明，最小二乘支持向量机学习速度快，在小样本情况下具有良好的非线性建模和泛化能力，基于LS—SVM的预测控制算法具有很好的控制性能。     

Keerthi的SMO算法的偏置计算改进

指出Keerthi的SMO算法存在的问题。该算法由于采用“取中法”求偏置,在优化条件不满足的情况下,偏置值有可能出现偏差,从而劣化SVM的建模性能。该文从SVM回归的原问题出发,导出求偏置的新方法并将其归结为一维凸函数最优化问题,将新算法应用于高斯函数的回归和记忆非线性功率放大器的预失真器的建模中,结果显示了新算法的正确性和有效性,建模精度提高10%左右。     

支持向量回归与常用近似模型的非线性预测性能比较研究

为降低计算成本和提高优化效率,工程实践中广泛应用近似模型拟合或预测非线性系统响应是研究的前沿与热点。引入支持向量回归方法,通过典型数值案例对比分析其与多项式响应面、kriging和径向基函数的非线性预测性能。利用箱线图直观的证明支持向量回归的非线性预测性能明显优于多项式响应面、kriging和径向基函数,且支持向量回归的预测精度对DOE的依赖性最弱,体现出良好的稳健性能,进一步验证了支持向量回归适用于非线性系统响应的近似建模。     

ARIMA-SVM组合模型驱动下的瓦斯浓度预测研究

针对单一瓦斯预测模型挖掘矿井瓦斯浓度时间序列全部特征能力较弱的问题,提出了一种基于自回归滑动平均模型（ARIMA）和支持向量机（SVM）模型的组合预测模型,并采用该模型对瓦斯浓度进行预测。首先,分别应用ARIMA模型和SVM模型对实验数据进行预测分析,得到2种单一模型预测结果。其次,结合自相关函数和偏自相关函数及贝叶斯准则,得到最优ARIMA模型为ARIMA(1,1,2),通过核函数等参数寻优,确立最优SVM模型,从而建立ARIMA-SVM组合模型。利用ARIMA模型处理瓦斯浓度时间序列的历史数据,得到相应的线性预测结果和残差序列,利用SVM模型进一步对数据残差序列中的非线性因素进行分析,得到非线性预测结果,将2个模型的预测结果进行组合,得到目标瓦斯时间序列最终预测结果。实验结果表明：(1) ARIMA-SVM组合模型预测结果与矿井实际数据的拟合度优于ARIMA模型和SVM模型。(2)相对于ARIMA模型、SVM模型,ARIMA-SVM组合模型的误差大幅度减小,且预测结果明显优于单一模型。(3) ARIMA-SVM组合模型的平均绝对误差、平均绝对百分比误差及均方根误差均为最小,表明AR...     

基于多项式核RVM的非线性模型预测控制

针对非线性、不确定性对象不易建模的特点,提出了基于多项式核关联向量机(RVM)的解析型非线性预测控制方法,该方法采用多项式核RVM进行模型辨识,得到的对象模型作为预测模型。由于RVM具有较好的非线性建模能力,弥补了SVM参数设定难和稀疏性不强等弱点;同时,多项式形式的模型表达式使二次型优化目标函数可以通过函数解析方法求得最优控制输入,即简化了滚动优化模块,增强了控制的实时性。通过对一个标准的非线性Benchmark问题进行仿真实验,结果表明该方法具有良好的控制性能。     

软测量技术及其应用

软测量技术是当前过程控制中研究热点之一.在介绍软测量技术基础上,对目前主要软测量建模的方法:机理建模、回归分析、状态估计、模式识别、人工神经网络、模糊数学、基于支持向量机(SVM)和核函数的方法、过程层析成像、相关分析和现代非线性系统信息处理技术等十种方法进行介绍,并对软测量建模方法进行了展望.最后列举了工业应用实例.     

基于泛函网络的非线性回归预测模型及学习算法

在非线性回归预测中,预测函数的拟合是其难点和关键,直接影响预测精度。当系统非线性较强时,传统方法不易于处理,拟合和预测结果不理想。泛函网络是最近提出的一种对神经网络的有效推广,在处理非线性问题时有一定的优势。为此提出了基于泛函网络的非线性回归预测模型和相应的学习算法。并分别就一元非线性回归预测和多元非线性回归预测给出了相应的实例。计算机仿真结果表明,泛函网络预测模型拟合度和预测精度都明显高于某些传统的方法,有较好的理论和应用价值。     

Bayesian non-linear regression models with skew-elliptical errors: Applications to the classification of longitudinal profiles

Typically, the fundamental assumption in non-linear regression models is the normality of the errors. Even though this model offers great flexibility for modeling these effects, it suffers from the same lack of robustness against departures from distributional assumptions as other statistical models based on the Gaussian distribution. It is of practical interest, therefore, to study non-linear models which are less sensitive to departures from normality, as well as related assumptions. Thus the current methods proposed for linear regression models need to be extended to non-linear regression models. This paper discusses non-linear regression models for longitudinal data with errors that follow a skew-elliptical distribution. Additionally, we discuss Bayesian statistical methods for the classification of observations into two or more groups based on skew-models for non-linear longitudinal profiles. Parameter estimation for a discriminant model that classifies individuals into distinct predefined groups or populations uses appropriate posterior simulation schemes. The methods are illustrated with data from a study involving 173 pregnant women. The main objective in this study is to predict normal versus abnormal pregnancy outcomes from beta human chorionic gonadotropin data available at early stages of pregnancy.     

Bayesian non-linear regression models with skew-elliptical errors: Applications to the classification of longitudinal profiles

Typically, the fundamental assumption in non-linear regression models is the normality of the errors. Even though this model offers great flexibility for modeling these effects, it suffers from the same lack of robustness against departures from distributional assumptions as other statistical models based on the Gaussian distribution. It is of practical interest, therefore, to study non-linear models which are less sensitive to departures from normality, as well as related assumptions. Thus the current methods proposed for linear regression models need to be extended to non-linear regression models. This paper discusses non-linear regression models for longitudinal data with errors that follow a skew-elliptical distribution. Additionally, we discuss Bayesian statistical methods for the classification of observations into two or more groups based on skew-models for non-linear longitudinal profiles. Parameter estimation for a discriminant model that classifies individuals into distinct predefined groups or populations uses appropriate posterior simulation schemes. The methods are illustrated with data from a study involving 173 pregnant women. The main objective in this study is to predict normal versus abnormal pregnancy outcomes from beta human chorionic gonadotropin data available at early stages of pregnancy.     

基于最小二乘支持向量机的航煤干点软测量应用研究

传统支持向量机是近几年发展起来的一种基于统计学习理论的学习机器,在非线性函数回归估计方面有许多应用。最小二乘支持向量机用等式约束代替传统支持向量机方法中的不等式约束,利用求解一组线性方程得出对象模型,避免了求解二次规划问题。本文采用最小二乘支持向量机解决了航空煤油干点的在线估计问题,结果表明,最小二乘支持向量机学习速度快、精度高,是一种软测量建模的有效方法。在相同样本条件下,比RBF网络具有较好的模型逼近性和泛化性能,比传统支持向量机可节省大量的计算时间。     

Extended least-correlation estimates for errors-in-variables non-linear models

This paper introduces a method of parameter estimation working on errors-in-variables polynomial non-linear models in which all measurements are corrupted by noise. The first step is to develop the linear regression models which are equivalent to polynomial non-linear systems. A main idea is to extend the parameter vector by even-order components of noise and to augment the regression vector by appropriate constants or measurements. Applying the method of least correlation, which has a capability to cope with errors-in-variables linear models, to the equivalent model with extended parameters and augmented regressors yields an extended least-correlation estimator. Analysis shows that, for non-linear systems with third or lower order polynomials, the parameters estimated by the proposed method asymptotically converge to the true values. Numerical examples also support analytical results. Applications of the approach to Volterra models, Hammerstein models and Weiner non-linear systems are included.     

Genetic polynomial regression as input selection algorithm for non-linear identification

The performance of non-linear identification techniques is often determined by the appropriateness of the selected input variables and the corresponding time lags. High correlation coefficients between candidate input variables in addition to a non-linear relation with the output signal induce the need for an appropriate input selection methodology. This paper proposes a genetic polynomial regression technique to select the significant input variables for the identification of non-linear dynamic systems with multiple inputs. Statistical tools are presented to visualize and to process the results from different selection runs. The evolutionary approach can be used for a wide range of identification techniques and only requires a minimal input and a priori knowledge from the user. The evolutionary selection algorithm has been applied on a real-world example to illustrate its performance. The engine load in a combine harvester is highly variable in time and should be kept below an allowable limit during automatic ground speed control mode. The genetic regression process has been used to select those measurement variables that have a significant impact on the engine load and that will act as measurement variables of a non-linear model-based engine load controller.     

Non-linear systems identification using radial basis functions

This paper investigates the identification of discrete-time non-linear systems using radial basis functions. A forward regression algorithm based on an orthogonal decomposition of the regression matrix is employed to select a suitable set of radial basis function centers from a large number of possible candidates and this provides, for the first time, fully automatic selection procedure for identifying parsimonious radial basis function models of structure-unknown non-linear systems. The relationship between neural networks and radial basis functions is discussed and the application of the algorithms to real data is included to demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach.     

流形学习与非线性回归结合的头部姿态估计

流形学习的目的是发现非线性数据的内在结构,可用于非线性降维。广义回归网络是人工神经网络的一种,可用于非线性回归。基于流形学习和非线性回归,提出了用于解决头部姿态估计的ManiNLR方法。该方法首先用流形学习对图像数据进行降维,然后用非线性回归的方法将数据映射到线性可分空间,利用非线性回归的结果对人脸的头部姿态进行估计。实验结果表明,ManiNLR算法能够较好地估计图像中的头部姿态,并具有较快的速度和较高的鲁棒性。     

Small area estimation using a nonparametric model-based direct estimator

Nonparametric regression is widely used as a method of characterizing a non-linear relationship between a variable of interest and a set of covariates. Practical application of nonparametric regression methods in the field of small area estimation is fairly recent, and has so far focussed on the use of empirical best linear unbiased prediction under a model that combines a penalized spline (p-spline) fit and random area effects. The concept of model-based direct estimation is used to develop an alternative nonparametric approach to estimation of a small area mean. The suggested estimator is a weighted average of the sample values from the area, with weights derived from a linear regression model with random area effects extended to incorporate a smooth, nonparametrically specified trend. Estimation of the mean squared error of the proposed small area estimator is also discussed. Monte Carlo simulations based on both simulated and real datasets show that the proposed model-based direct estimator and its associated mean squared error estimator perform well. They are worth considering in small area estimation applications where the underlying population regression relationships are non-linear or have a complicated functional form.     

Application of two non-linear prediction tools to the estimation of tunnel boring machine performance

Predicting tunnel boring machine (TBM) performance is a crucial issue for the accomplishment of a mechanical tunnel project, excavating via full face tunneling machine. Many models and equations have previously been introduced to estimate TBM performance based on properties of both rock and machine employing various statistical analysis techniques. However, considering the nature of the problem, it is relatively difficult to estimate tunnel boring machine performance by linear prediction models. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) and non-linear multiple regression models have great potential for establishing such prediction models. The purpose of the present study is the construction of non-linear multivariable prediction models to estimate TBM performance as a function of rock properties. For this purpose, rock properties and machine data were collected from recently completed TBM tunnel project in the City of New York, USA and consequently the database was established to develop performance prediction models utilizing the ANN and the non-linear multiple regression methods. This paper presents the results of study into the application of the non-linear prediction approaches providing the acceptable precise performance estimations.