机器人的运动时变可靠性分析

机器人系统存在的多种不确定性会导致其运动精度下降,为此开展机器人运动时变不确定性建模与分析,以期提高机器人运动精度。首先基于运动学分析建立了机器人末端执行器参考点位姿误差模型,随后基于机器人位姿误差模型提出了末端执行器位置精度的点（静态）可靠性、时变（区间）可靠性模型以及机器人运动的系统可靠性模型,最后给出了实现上述可靠性模型高效、高精度求解的包络方法,并以斯坦福机器人为实例验证了所提模型和求解方法的有效性。研究表明,所提出的可靠性模型能够有效获得机器人各坐标分量上的时变可靠度以及机器人运动的系统可靠度。研究工作为提高机器人运动精度提供了新方法。     

梁结构刚度动态非概率可靠性分析

 为了定量分析在疲劳载荷作用下梁在不同寿命期内刚度的可靠性,建立梁结构物理性能退化的精确公式就十分重要.依据疲劳载荷造成的累积损伤对材料极限应力的影响,基于材料剩余强度模型,利用材料强度与弹性模量之间的关系,推导出结构弹性模量的退化表达式,并在此基础上,提出梁弹性模量退化系数的递推表达式,推导出圆截面梁剩余抗弯刚度的表达式.在对结构可靠性分析时,概率可靠性模型和模糊可靠性模型对于原始数据信息要求较高.为了充分利用结构的不确定性信息弥补原始数据的不足,将梁的初始弹性模量及所受的疲劳载荷等看作区间变量,利用区间模型建立基于刚度退化的梁刚度动态非概率可靠性模型.最后,结合工程实例的计算表明了该方法对梁的刚度退化分析及其刚度动态可靠性分析是可行、有效和合理的.     

在役腐蚀管道动态非概率可靠性分析简

 腐蚀失效是压力管道失效的主要形式之一,研究腐蚀管道的可靠性具有重要理论意义和应用价值.在对腐蚀管道可靠性分析时,概率可靠性模型和模糊可靠性模型对于数据信息的要求较高.而在掌握不确定性信息很少情况下,为了充分利用管道的不确定性信息弥补原始数据的不足,可将腐蚀管道可靠性分析中的材料屈服强度、管道直径、缺陷深度和操作压力等不确定参数视为区间变量,基于区间模型建立一种在役腐蚀管道动态非概率可靠性模型,给出了腐蚀管道剩余寿命预测的简便方法.结合工程实例计算与分析,表明了文中所提出方法的可行性和合理性,并在此基础上,分析了管道的壁厚、缺陷深度、实际压力和腐蚀速率这些区间变量的不同变异系数对非概率可靠性指标的影响,分析结果表明非概率可靠性指标对管道壁厚的变异系数最为敏感.     

非高斯随机振动下包装件时变振动可靠性分析

包装件在流通过程中经常受到非高斯随机振动激励的作用,提出了一种包装件在非高斯随机振动激励条件下的时变可靠性的分析方法。结合多项式混沌扩展和Karhunen-Loeve扩展,提出了基于功率谱(或自相关函数)、均值、方差、偏斜度和峭度信息的非高斯随机振动激励的模拟方法;为减小数值分析量,应用拟蒙特卡洛法,在随机变量空间中合理控制变量的分布模拟非高斯随机振动激励,通过四阶龙格库塔法分析,用较少的随机振动模拟样本准确得到了包装件加速度响应的前四阶矩和自相关函数。基于响应的统计信息,应用该研究提出的多项式混沌扩展、Karhunen-Loeve扩展和拟蒙特卡洛分析,获得包装件加速度响应样本,计算包装件的时变可靠性,用原始蒙特卡洛法验证了计算的准确性;该方法在包装件的可靠性分析、包装系统优化等方面具有重要意义。     

高可靠性软件的极值统计分析

提出了极值统计分析的方法．对于失效数据极值分布函数的拟合检验，采用了相关系数法；对于母体分布的参数估计，则分别采用了最小二乘估计（LSE）和极大似然估计（MLE）；最后通过一个实例说明了统计过程，并用模拟的方法证明了最小二乘估计较好。     

On the ensemble crossing rate approach to time variant reliability analysis of uncertain structures

The ‘ensemble’ up-crossing rate technique consists of averaging the rate at which a random load process up-crosses a deterministic barrier level over the resistance distribution at successive time points. Averaging over the resistance makes the assumption of independent up-crossings less appropriate. As a result, first passage failure probabilities may become excessively conservative in problems with other than extremely low failure probabilities. The ensemble up-crossing rate technique has a significant potential in simplifying the solution of time variant reliability problems under resistance degradation. However, little is known about the quality of this approximation or its limits of application. In the paper, a Monte Carlo simulation-based methodology is developed to predict the error in the approximation. An error parameter is identified and error functions are constructed. The methodology is applied to a range of time-invariant and time-variant random barriers, and it is shown that the error in the original ensemble up-crossing rate approximation is largely reduced. The study provides unprecedented insight into characteristics of the ensemble up-crossing rate approximation.     

Reliability analysis of pipelines carrying H2S for risk based inspection of heavy water plants

Reliability analysis of pipelines containing corrosion defects due to H₂S is presented. The pipeline carrying H₂S is more susceptible to the internal corrosion thereby reducing the pipeline's load carrying capacity. The objective of this study is to obtain the pipelines' failure probabilities that are required in establishing a Risk Based Inspection (RBI) programme for heavy water plants. The reliability assessment of pipelines involves the estimation of failure pressure and evaluating the limit state function. Several failure pressure models were studied for this purpose and it was found that the modified B31G failure pressure model is most suitable for the pipeline failure pressure modeling. Due to the presence of non-linearity in the limit state function and non-normal variables, the first order reliability method has been employed for carrying out the reliability analysis. The uncertainty of the random variables on which the limit state function depends is modeled using normal and non-normal probabilistic distributions. The failure probabilities and the categories of the pipelines connected to the first pair of first stage of exchange towers are presented. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was carried out on random variables involved in the problem. The results of sensitivity analysis are also presented.