Predicting survival, length of stay, and cost in the surgical intensive care unit: APACHE II versus ICISS

BACKGROUND: Risk stratification of patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) is an important tool because it permits comparison of patient populations for research and quality control. Unfortunately, currently available scoring systems were developed primarily in medical ICUs and have only mediocre performance in surgical ICUs. Moreover, they are very expensive to purchase and use. We conceived a simple risk-stratification tool for the surgical ICU that uses readily available International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, codes to predict outcome. Called ICISS (International Classification of Disease Illness Severity Score), our score is the product of the survival risk ratios (obtained from an independent data set) for all International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, diagnosis codes. METHODS: A total of 5,322 noncardiac patients admitted to a surgical ICU during an 8-year period had their Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II scores compared with their ICISS as predictors of outcome (survival/nonsurvival, length of stay, and charges). RESULTS: ICISS proved to be a much better predictor of survival than APACHE (receiver operating characteristic (ROC) APACHE = 0.806; Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) APACHE = 22.56; ROC ICISS = 0.892; HL ICISS = 12.06) or the APACHE survival probability (ROC = 0.836; HL = 34.47). These differences were highly statistically significant (p < 0.001). ICISS was also better correlated with ICU length of stay (APACHE R2 = 0.06; ICISS R2 = 0.32) and ICU charges (APACHE R2 = 0.07; ICISS R2 = 0.39). When combined in a logistic model with ICISS, APACHE II added slightly to the predictive power of ICISS alone (combined ROC = 0.903) but degraded the calibration of the model (combined HL = 16.29; p = 0.038). CONCLUSION: Because ICISS is both more accurate and much less expensive to calculate than APACHE II score, ICISS should replace APACHE II score as the standard risk stratification tool in surgical ICUs.     

Factors influencing stay in the postanesthesia care unit: a prospective analysis

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To identify indicators of prolonged length of stay (LOS) in the postanesthesia care unit (PACU) and to test the following hypotheses: (1) that patient age, pain medication administration at the time of PACU admission, length of surgery, and cardiovascular, pulmonary, and pain responses postoperatively predict prolonged PACU LOS and (2) that cardiovascular and pulmonary symptoms preoperatively predict cardiovascular and pulmonary symptoms postoperatively. DESIGN: Prospective, observational analysis. SETTING: PACU of a university teaching hospital. PATIENTS: 1,067 patients scheduled for surgery with general anesthesia between February and September 1996, 18 years of age or older. MEASUREMENT AND MAIN RESULTS: 11.2% of the variation in prolonged PACU LOS can be predicted by age, pain medication at the time of PACU admission, and postoperative cardiovascular, pulmonary, and pain symptoms. A significant number of patients who did not report a prior history experienced postoperative cardiovascular and pulmonary symptoms. CONCLUSION: Patient history and postoperative symptoms predict only a small percentage of prolonged PACU stays. Organizational factors may be a more important predictor of prolonged PACU stay. Additionally, assessment of cardiovascular and pulmonary history needs refinement to improve prediction of patient responses postoperatively.     

Pediatric hepatic trauma: does clinical course support intensive care unit stay?

PURPOSE: The objective of this study is to determine if grade of liver injury predicts outcome after blunt hepatic trauma in children and to initiate analysis of current management practices to optimize resource utilization without compromising patient care. METHODS: A retrospective review of 36 children who had blunt hepatic trauma treated at a pediatric trauma center from 1989 to present was performed. Hepatic injuries graded (AAST Organ Injury Scaling) ranged from grade I to IV. Injury Severity Score (ISS), Glasgow Coma Score (GCS), transfusion requirements, liver transaminase levels, associated injuries, intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay, and survival were analyzed. RESULTS: Mean (+/-SEM) age was 6.6+/-0.8 years, mean grade of hepatic injury was 2.4+/-0.2, mean ISS was 17+/-2.6, mean GCS was 13+/-1, and mean transfusion was 15.4 mL/kg of packed red blood cells (PRBC). There were three deaths with a mean ISS of 59+/-9 and a mean GCS of 3+/-0. Death was not associated with a high-grade liver injury, survivors versus nonsurvivors, 2.3+/-0.2 versus 2.7+/-0.3, but was associated with ISS, 13+/-1.4 versus 59+/-9 (P = .005) and GCS, 14+/-1 versus 3+/-0 (P = .005). Only one patient (grade III, ISS = 43) underwent surgery. There were no differences in mean ISS or GCS between grades I to IV patients. The hepatic injury grades of patients requiring transfusion versus no transfusion were significantly different, 3.4+/-0.2 versus 2.2+/-0.2 (P = 0.04). Abused patients had high-grade hepatic injuries and significant laboratory and clinical findings. Alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) were significantly higher in grade III and IV injuries than in grades I and II, 1,157+/-320 versus 333+/-61 (P= .02) and 1,176+/-299 versus 516+/-86 (P= .04), respectively. No children with grade I or II injury had a transfusion requirement or surgical intervention. There were no liver-related complications. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality and morbidity rates in pediatric liver injuries, grades I to IV, correlate with associated injuries not the degree of hepatic damage. ALT, AST, and transfusion requirements are significantly related to degree of liver injury. Low-grade and isolated high-grade liver injuries seldom require transfusion. Blunt liver trauma rarely requires surgical intervention. In retrospect, the need for expensive ICU observation for low-grade and isolated high-grade hepatic injuries is questionably warranted.     

Elevated carbohydrate-deficient transferrin predicts prolonged intensive care unit stay in traumatized men

Antibodies to DNA are believed to play an important role in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). High affinity IgG antibodies which show marked specificity for double stranded DNA (dsDNA) are particularly closely linked to the occurrence and severity of tissue damage. Sequence analysis of mouse and human monoclonal antibodies has previously suggested that mutations in the complementarity determining regions (CDRs) play a major role in determining these binding properties. In many cases such mutations increase the overall number of basic residues in the CDRs. To further elucidate the role played by such mutations it is important to develop methods of expressing cloned autoantibody cDNA in the form of functional whole immunoglobulin molecules. We describe a system in which autoantibody VH and VL cDNA from monoclonal human anti-DNA antibodies, B3 and WRI176 were cloned into separate vectors which allowed their expression as whole heavy and whole light chains respectively. By cotransfecting mammalian cells with pairs of heavy and light chain vectors it was possible to produce whole IgG molecules from each of the four possible VH/VL combinations. Only antibody produced by homologous VH and VL pairs bound DNA, suggesting that in these autoantibodies both chains are important in conferring this property.     

Comorbidities and prediction of length of hospital stay

Columnar epithelium-lined esophagus (Barrett's esophagus) is an acquired disorder associated with a high incidence of adenocarcinoma of the lower esophagus. Columnar epithelium resembling intestinal metaplasia (IM) is especially important, since it is considered to be a premalignant condition. The aim of this study was to define the sulfated carbohydrate chain of mucin and its core peptide profile in Barrett's esophagus (BE) and to compare it with the profile in Barrett's adenocarcinoma and lower esophageal adenocarcinoma. The sulfated carbohydrate chain was not expressed in 16 specimens of normal esophageal epithelium, but in BE, it was expressed in 50% (8/16) of the specimens. This chain was detected in 100% (7/7) of esophageal adenocarcinoma specimens, including four cases of Barrett's adenocarcinoma. These data suggest that the sulfated carbohydrate chain may be associated with malignant phenotype of the esophagus. MUC1 core peptide was positive in 87% (13/15) of BE specimens and in 29% (2/7) of the esophageal adenocarcinoma specimens. MUC2 core peptide was present in 57% (8/14) and 43% (3/7) of these specimens, respectively. These data suggest that Barrett's epithelium, which is similar to IM, but not normal esophageal epithelium, expresses the sulfated sugar chain which is known to be present in gastric IM and colonic mucosa. However, there was no significant correlation between the expression of the sulfated sugar chain and the expression of either mucin core peptide MUC1 or MUC2. Thus, this carbohydrate chain may be expressed on as yet unidentified core proteins, other than MUC1 or MUC2 core peptide, in BE and esophageal adenocarcinoma. Identification of these proteins may be very important in helping to detect premalignant status in BE.     

Interruption management in the intensive care unit: Predicting resumption times and assessing distributed support.

Interruptions are frequent in many work domains. Researchers in health care have started to study interruptions extensively, but their studies usually do not use a theoretically guided approach. Conversely, researchers conducting theoretically rich laboratory studies on interruptions have not usually investigated how effectively their findings account for humans working in complex systems such as intensive care units. In the current study, we use the memory for goals theory and prospective memory theory to investigate which properties of an interruption influence how long it takes nurses to resume interrupted critical care tasks. We collected data with a mobile eye tracker in an intensive care unit and developed multiple regression models to predict resumption times. In 55.8% of all interruptions there was a finite—and therefore analyzable—resumption lag. For these cases, the main regression model explained 30.9% (adjusted R2) of the variance. Longer interruptions (β = .36, p p     

The intraoperative administration of ketorolac tromethamine in evaluating length of stay in a same day surgery unit

Relative biological effectiveness (RBE), as a function of linear energy transfer (LET), is evaluated for different types of damage contributing to mammalian cell reproductive death. Survival curves are analysed assuming a linear-quadratic dose dependence of lethal lesions. The linear term represents lethal damage due to single particle tracks, the quadratic term represents lethality due to interaction of lesions from independent tracks. RBE-LET relationships of single-track lethal damage, sublethal damage, potentially lethal damage and DNA double-strand breaks (dsb) are compared. Single-track lethal damage is shown to be composed of two components: damage that remains unrepaired in an interval between irradiation and assay, characterized by a very strong dependence on LET, with RBEs up to 20, and potentially lethal damage, which is weakly dependent on LET with RBEs < 3. Potentially lethal damage and sublethal damage depend similarly on LET as DNA dsb. The identification of these different components of damage leads to an interpretation of differences in radiosensitivity and in RBEs among various types of cells.     

Risk factors and length of stay attributable to hospital infections of the urinary tract in general surgery patients

BACKGROUND: Urinary tract infection (UTI) is the second frequent site of infection in surgical patients; nevertheless, its study has been frequently neglected. The main objective of this report is the analysis of risk factors for ITU in general surgery. METHODS: A prospective study on 1,483 patients admitted at a service of general surgery for a 20-month study period has been carried out. The criteria used for diagnosing nosocomial were those of the CDC. Crude and adjusted for by logistic regression relative risks and its 95% confidence interval were estimated. To assess the length of stay attributable to UTI, infected patients were 1:1 matched with non-infected patients for surgical procedure, ASA score, age (+/- 10 years), emergency surgery, pre-operative stay, and urinary catheter. RESULTS: 33 patients (2.2%) developed UTI. In crude analysis, UTI risk was significantly associated with urethral catheter (and its duration), advanced age, severity of illness (McCabe-Jackson scale, ASA score, number of diagnoses), type of surgical wound, intrinsic risk of infection (measured by the SENIC and NNIS indices). Stepwise logistic regression analysis selected three independent predictors: urethral catheter, age and pre-operative stay. All urinary drain-ages were open. UTI prolonged hospital stay 4.7 days (95% Cl 3.4-6.2). The use of closed drain-age systems would eliminate 6 UTIs. Assuming a cost per day of hospital stay of $250 the use of closed systems would save $7,000 (IC 95%, 5300-9300). CONCLUSION: The use of closed systems for urethral catheters is cost-saving.     

Negative symptoms in stroke patients and length of hospital stay

The purpose of this study was to assess whether the presence and severity of psychiatric symptoms in stroke patients correlate with their length of stay (LOS) in a rehabilitation unit, with special emphasis on the role of negative symptoms (NS). Twenty-three stroke patients, consecutively recruited from the inpatient rehabilitation unit, were evaluated on admission with the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), the Positive and Negative Symptom Scale (PANSS), the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS), the Scale for Assessment of Negative Symptoms (SANS), and the Functional Independent Measure (FIM). NS scores significantly correlated with LOS, with SANS total score being the most informative, and the attentional impairment subscale the least. The group of patients with pronounced NS stayed in the hospital twice as long as patients with the score on the NS subscale of PANSS below 16. These two groups did not differ in their cognitive performance or in the positive symptom subscale of PANSS scores. Total FIM score on admission was lower and HDRS scores higher in patients with pronounced NS. However, these differences, unlike those of LOS, have not reached statistical significance. The presence and severity of NS in stroke patients are associated with a longer hospital stay. Identification and treatment of NS might lead to a faster discharge from rehabilitation unit.     

"Ideal" length of stay after colectomy: whose ideal?

The tuberous sclerosis 2 (TSC2) gene is thought to function as a growth suppressor in sporadic and TSC-associated hamartomas and tumors. Clusters of dysplastic glial cells are a common feature of cortical tubers and subependymal nodules in tuberous sclerosis patients. In an effort to identify TSC2 gene alterations in sporadic gliomas, we detected a novel polymorphism adjacent to the 3'splice site of intron 4. We evaluated the distribution of this variant allele in a series of 244 patients with glial tumors, including 55 gangliogliomas, 31 pilocytic astrocytomas (WHO grade I), 50 astrocytomas (WHO grades II and III), and 108 glioblastomas (WHO grade IV). The allelic distribution in the general population was estimated by examining 381 healthy blood donors. This rare allele appeared in the control population and in the patients with astrocytic gliomas with a virtually identical frequency (8.14%, and 8.20%, respectively). The frequency of the rare allele in gangliogliomas, however, was significantly higher (15.5%; p = 0.024). The fact that both gangliogliomas and cortical tubers in tuberous sclerosis contain neuronal and astrocytic elements and may resemble each other histologically suggests that the TSC2 gene may be involved in the development of these tumors. The rare allele of the TSC2 gene emerges as a candidate for a predisposing factor for the formation of sporadic gangliogliomas.     

Relation of direct hospitalization costs with length of stay

OBJECTIVE: Our main objective is to analyse to the relationship between the direct cost of a hospitalary discharge and the length of stay controlling for other care variables. METHODS: Analysis of the direct costs of pharmacy, laboratory, pathology and radiology tests of the 21,883 discharged patients in two Barcelona hospitals during 1993, in relationship to care variables contained in the basic minimum data set for discharged patient (BMDSDP). Using both hospital information systems in which are detailed the complete activity carried out and the assignment of unitary costs by means of different methods adapted to the available information, the direct cost is built up for patient and it is assembled by DRG. With the direct cost information and the care variables of the BMDSDP, a simple linear regression (least squared method) is carried out. RESULTS: The average direct cost is up to 31,533 pesetas. The regression by least squared method explains 70% of the variance (R2) and the variables with higher explanatory power are the length of stay and the relative weight of average DRG direct costs, that acts like variable of adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: The variability of the direct cost is explained principally by the length of stay. In addition, the length of stay is also very important on explaining the internal variability of DRG direct cost.     

A neural network that predicts psychiatric length of stay

One hundred and twelve bilateral thyroidectomies for solitary thyroid nodules with suspected malignancy were performed. The incidence of malignancy in the 112 primary nodules was 42%. Twenty-nine of the 112 contralateral lobes (26%) contained malignancy, which was unsuspected in 80%. Of these 29, 20 were foci of papillary cancer < or = 5 mm and 9 were larger papillary tumors or follicular carcinoma. We analyzed these 112 patients to determine whether there was a simple method to identify those patients at risk for contralateral, unsuspected malignancy. With use of the AMES clinical staging retrospectively, 70 of the 112 patients were classified as having low-stage disease. Fifty percent (35) had cancers on the primary side and 27% (19) on the contralateral side. Of these 19 contralateral cancers, 14 were papillary cancers < or = 5 mm, 4 were papillary cancer > 5 mm and one was a 1.5 cm follicular carcinoma, a similar distribution as in the whole group of 112. When the AMES analysis then excluded those thought to be at risk for multicentricity or papillary carcinoma and examined female patients only with nonpapillary frozen sections, nonpapillary aspiration cytological results, and no history of radiation exposure, no further reduction in the proportion of contralateral cancers (7 of 26, 27%) was found. Fifty-five of the 112 patients underwent preoperative ultrasound scans. In those cases in whom the contralateral lobe had no intraoperative palpable or preoperative sonographic mass, 5 of 20 still had contralateral cancers, but all were papillary < or = 5 mm.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)     

Predicting length of stay in an acute psychiatric hospital

OBJECTIVE: Multivariate statistical methods were used to identify patient-related variables that predicted length of stay in a single psychiatric facility. The study investigated whether these variables remained stable over time and could be used to provide individual physicians with data on length of stay adjusted for differences in clinical caseloads and to detect trends in the physicians' practice patterns. METHODS: Data on all patients discharged over two six-month periods were collected at an acute psychiatric inpatient facility. Stepwise multiple regression analyses were conducted on the two datasets. RESULTS: The results from both analyses revealed that five variables significantly predicted length of stay and were stable over time. They were a primary diagnosis of schizophrenia, the number of previous admissions, a primary diagnosis of a mood disorder, age, and a secondary diagnosis of an alcohol- or other drug-related disorder. For some physicians, the mean length of stay of their patients differed significantly from the length predicted by the regression model--generally, it was shorter. CONCLUSIONS: The results demonstrate that patient-related predictors of length of stay in a single psychiatric hospital can be identified using relatively simple statistical procedures and can be consistent across a large dataset and over time.     

Trends and variations in neonatal length of in-hospital stay in Canada

The objectives of this study were to evaluate the possible mechanisms involved in prolongation of bleeding time in pre-eclamptic patients receiving a magnesium sulfate infusion to prevent convulsions. Eighteen pre-eclamptic patients near term or at term (4 cases 33 to 35 weeks; the remainder > 36 weeks) were studied. Fifteen of them received magnesium sulfate infusion; 3 did not and served as controls. Bleeding time (modified Ivy method with Surgicutt), platelet count, platelet aggregation pattern, as well as serum arachidonic acid metabolites [thromboxane B2 (TxB2) and 6-Keto-prostaglandin F1 alpha (6-Keto-PGF1 alpha)] werde done on admission to the labor floor (before magnesium infusion) and repeated at discontinuation of the infusion, 12-24 hours postpartum; the controls received the second test 24 hours postpartum. Thirteen of 15 patients receiving magnesium sulfate had an increase in bleeding time from an average of 6 minutes 31 seconds to 11 minutes 56 seconds, an 82% rise (p < 0.004). In 2 there was a decrease. Among the 3 controls the averages were 6 minutes 38 seconds and 6 minutes 3 seconds. The total magnesium given ranged from 52.5 to 145 grams. Platelet counts averaged 251,000/mm3 (range 145,000-519,000). Platelet aggregation pattern done in 11 patients and was normal and unchanged after magnesium in 10 of the patients with increased bleeding time and one control. TxB2 and 6-Keto-PGF1 alpha levels did not change significantly either after magnesium administration (688 and 135 pgm/ml, to 654 and 117) or in controls (695 and 230 pgm/ml, to 445 and 225). Likewise, the ratio of these 2 substances did not change in either group (6.3 to 6.6, and 4.2 to 2.2). There was no correlation between duration of infusion or total magnesium given and directions of small changes observed. This study confirms a prior preliminary observation that magnesium sulfate infusion, as currently used to prevent eclamptic convulsions, induces a significant prolongation of bleeding time. This effect is mediated neither by changes in platelets count or aggregation pattern, nor by changing the level or ratios of serum arachidonic acid metabolites (TxB2 and 6-Keto-PGF1 alpha). Further studies are needed to clarify the mechanism of this clinically important observation of increased bleeding following magnesium sulfate infusion.     

Factors influencing outcome and length of stay in a stroke rehabilitation unit. Part 2. Comparison of 318 screened and 248 unscreened patients

Amyloidosis associated with Crohn's disease was found in 7 patients among 85 subjected to intestinal resection for granulomatous enterocolitis. Most of the patients had symptoms of inflammatory bowel disease of relatively short duration before the diagnosis of amyloidosis was made and were without suppurative complications. Systemic involvement was seen in 6 of the patients. One died postoperatively from renal failure, and in 2 other patients kidney transplantation was performed because of deterioration of a pre-existent renal insufficiency. Six patients were alive 6 months to 10 years after amyloidosis was diagnosed. There is great risk of rapid deterioration of kidney function postoperatively in these patients. However, our experience suggests that in some cases the progression of amyloidosis may be delayed or even brought to a halt after surgical treatment of Crohn's disease.     

Relationship of work therapy to psychiatric length of stay and readmission.

Hypothesized that participants in an in-hospital work-therapy program require a shorter period of intensive and total psychiatric treatment and fewer readmissions to all psychiatric facilities than do nonparticipants. Patients were randomly assigned to the participant (N = 110) and nonparticipant (N = 149) groups at admission. Contrary to the hypotheses, the results indicate that participants had significantly longer stays in both intensive treatment and total hospitalization than did nonparticipants. Although there was no difference between the groups with respect to readmission to all psychiatric facilities, participants had significantly more readmissions to the original institution. It is suggested that work-therapy programs be established in the community in order to avoid contributing to the hospital dependency of participants. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Psychotherapy length of stay and outcome: A meta-analysis of the effect of therapist sex.

This meta-analysis combined results from 64 published and unpublished studies that sought to determine the effect of therapist sex on the outcome of psychotherapy. The articles were obtained using PsychLit and PsychInfo and spanned the years 1930–2000. Results show that therapist sex was found to be a poor predictor of outcome for both male and female clients. Level of therapist training, theoretical orientation of treatment, quality of study, age of clients, and number of treatment sessions did not moderate the minimal effect of therapist sex on the outcome of psychotherapy. The authors conclude that the sex of the therapist has little overall effect on the outcome of psychotherapy. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)