Size effect on strength and lifetime probability distributions of quasibrittle structures

Engineering structures such as aircraft, bridges, dams, nuclear containments and ships, as well as computer circuits, chips and MEMS, should be designed for failure probability ???6–10^???7 per lifetime. The safety factors required to ensure it are still determined empirically, even though they represent much larger and much more uncertain corrections to deterministic calculations than do the typical errors of modern computer analysis of structures. The empirical approach is sufficient for perfectly brittle and perfectly ductile structures since the cumulative distribution function (cdf) of random strength is known, making it possible to extrapolate to the tail from the mean and variance. However, the empirical approach does not apply to structures consisting of quasibrittle materials, which are brittle materials with inhomogeneities that are not negligible compared to structure size. This paper presents a refined theory on the strength distribution of quasibrittle structures, which is based on the fracture mechanics of nanocracks propagating by activation energy controlled small jumps through the atomic lattice and an analytical model for the multi-scale transition of strength statistics. Based on the power law for creep crack growth rate and the cdf of material strength, the lifetime distribution of quasibrittle structures under constant load is derived. Both the strength and lifetime cdf’s are shown to be size- and geometry-dependent. The theory predicts intricate size effects on both the mean structural strength and lifetime, the latter being much stronger. The theory is shown to match the experimentally observed systematic deviations of strength and lifetime histograms of industrial ceramics from the Weibull distribution.     

Energetic–statistical size effect simulated by SFEM with stratified sampling and crack band model

The paper presents a model that extends the stochastic finite element method to the modelling of transitional energetic–statistical size effect in unnotched quasibrittle structures of positive geometry (i.e. failing at the start of macro‐crack growth), and to the low probability tail of structural strength distribution, important for safe design. For small structures, the model captures the energetic (deterministic) part of size effect and, for large structures, it converges to Weibull statistical size effect required by the weakest‐link model of extreme value statistics. Prediction of the tail of extremely low probability such as one in a million, which needs to be known for safe design, is made feasible by the fact that the form of the cumulative distribution function (cdf) of a quasibrittle structure of any size has been established analytically in previous work. Thus, it is not necessary to turn to sophisticated methods such as importance sampling and it suffices to calibrate only the mean and variance of this cdf. Two kinds of stratified sampling of strength in a finite element code are studied. One is the Latin hypercube sampling of the strength of each element considered as an independent random variable, and the other is the Latin square design in which the strength of each element is sampled from one overall cdf of random material strength. The former is found to give a closer estimate of variance, while the latter gives a cdf with smaller scatter and a better mean for the same number of simulations. For large structures, the number of simulations required to obtain the mean size effect is greatly reduced by adopting the previously proposed method of random property blocks. Each block is assumed to have a homogeneous random material strength, the mean and variance of which are scaled down according to the block size using the weakest‐link model for a finite number of links. To check whether the theoretical cdf is followed at least up to tail beginning at the failure probability of about 0.01, a hybrid of stratified sampling and Monte Carlo simulations in the lowest probability stratum is used. With the present method, the probability distribution of strength of quasibrittle structures of positive geometry can be easily estimated for any structure size. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Probability distribution of energetic-statistical size effect in quasibrittle fracture

The physical sources of randomness in quasibrittle fracture described by the cohesive crack model are discussed and theoretical arguments for the basic form of the probability distribution are presented. The probability distribution of the size effect on the nominal strength of structures made of heterogeneous quasibrittle materials is derived, under certain simplifying assumptions, from the nonlocal generalization of Weibull theory. Attention is limited to structures of positive geometry failing at the initiation of macroscopic crack growth from a zone of distributed cracking. It is shown that, for small structures, which do not dwarf the fracture process zone (FPZ), the mean size effect is deterministic, agreeing with the energetic size effect theory, which describes the size effect due to stress redistribution and the associated energy release caused by finite size of the FPZ formed before failure. Material randomness governs the statistical distribution of the nominal strength of structure and, for very large structure sizes, also the mean. The large-size and small-size asymptotic properties of size effect are determined, and the reasons for the existence of intermediate asymptotics are pointed out. Asymptotic matching is then used to obtain an approximate closed-form analytical expression for the probability distribution of failure load for any structure size. For large sizes, the probability distribution converges to the Weibull distribution for the weakest link model, and for small sizes, it converges to the Gaussian distribution justified by Daniels' fiber bundle model. Comparisons with experimental data on the size-dependence of the modulus of rupture of concrete and laminates are shown. Monte Carlo simulations with finite elements are the subject of ongoing studies by Pang at Northwestern University to be reported later.     

Indirect determination of size effect on strength of asphalt mixtures at low temperatures

Low temperature cracking of asphalt pavements is a major distress in cold regions. Accurate assessment of strength of asphalt mixtures at low temperatures is of great importance for ensuring the structural integrity of asphalt pavements. It has been shown that asphalt mixtures behave in a quasibrittle manner at low temperatures and consequently its nominal strength strongly depends on the structure size. The size effect on the strength of asphalt mixtures can be directly measured by testing geometrically similar specimens with a sufficiently large size range. Recent studies have shown in theory that for quasibrittle structures, which fail at the macrocrack initiation from one representative volume element, the mean size effect curve can also be derived from the scaling of strength statistics based on the finite weakest link model. This paper presents a comprehensive experimental investigation on the strength statistics as well as the size effect on the mean strength of asphalt mixtures at ?24 °C. It is shown that the size effect on mean structural strength can be obtained by strength histogram testing on specimens of a single size. The present study also indicates that the three-parameter Weibull distribution is not applicable for asphalt mixtures.     

Statistics of strength of ceramics: finite weakest-link model and necessity of zero threshold

It is argued that, in probabilistic estimates of quasibrittle structure strength, the strength threshold should be considered to be zero and the distribution to be transitional between Gaussian and Weibullian. The strength histograms recently measured on tough ceramics and other quasibrittle materials, which have been thought to imply a Weibull distribution with nonzero threshold, are shown to be fitted equally well or better by a new weakest-link model with a zero strength threshold and with a finite, rather than infinite, number of links in the chain, each link corresponding to one representative volume element (RVE) of a non-negligible size. The new model agrees with the measured mean size effect curves. It is justified by energy release rate dependence of the activation energy barriers for random crack length jumps through the atomic lattice, which shows that the tail of the failure probability distribution should be a power law with zero threshold. The scales from nano to macro are bridged by a hierarchical model with parallel and series couplings. This scale bridging indicates that the power-law tail with zero threshold is indestructible while its exponent gets increased on each passage to a higher scales. On the structural scale, the strength distribution except for its far left power-law tail, varies from Gaussian to Weibullian as the structure size increases. For the mean structural strength, the theory predicts a size effect which approaches the Weibull power law asymptotically for large sizes but deviates from it at small sizes. This deviation is the easiest way to calibrate the theory experimentally. The structure size is measured in terms of the number of RVEs. This number must be convoluted by an integral over the dimensionless stress field, which depends on structure geometry. The theory applies to the broad class of structure geometries for which failure occurs at macro-crack initiation from one RVE, but not to structure geometries for which stability is lost only after large macro-crack growth. Based on tolerable structural failure probability of <10^?6, the change from nonzero to zero threshold may often require a major correction in safety factors.     

Weibull Probability Model for Fracture Strength of Aluminium (1101)-Alumina Particle Reinforced Metal Matrix Composite

In recent times, conventional materials are replaced by metal matrix composites (MMCs) due to their high specific strength and modulus. Strength reliability, one of the key factors restricting wider use of composite materials in various applications, is commonly characterized by Weibull strength distribution function. In the present work, statistical analysis of the strength data of 15% volume alumina particle (mean size 15 μm) reinforced in aluminum alloy (1101 grade alloy) fabricated by stir casting metho...     

Incorporation of statistical length scale into Weibull strength theory for composites

In this paper an extension of Weibull theory by the introduction of a statistical length scale is presented. The classical Weibull strength theory is self-similar; a feature that can be illustrated by the fact that the strength dependence on structural size is a power law (a straight line on a double logarithmic graph). Therefore, the theory predicts unlimited strength for extremely small structures. In the paper, it is shown that such a behavior is a direct implication of the assumption that structural elements have independent random strengths. By the introduction of statistical dependence in the form of spatial autocorrelation, the size dependent strength becomes bounded at the small size extreme. The local random strength is phenomenologically modeled as a random field with a certain autocorrelation function. In such a model, the autocorrelation length plays the role of a statistical length scale. The focus is on small failure probabilities and the related probabilistic distributions of the strength of composites. The theoretical part is followed by applications in fiber bundle models, chains of fiber bundle models and the stochastic finite element method in the context of quasibrittle failure.     

Three-dimensional stress analysis and Weibull statistics based strength prediction in open hole composites

The critical failure volume (CFV) method is proposed. CFV is defined as a finite subvolume in a material with general nonuniform stress distribution, which has the highest probability of failure, i.e. loss of load carrying capacity. The evaluation of the probability of failure of the subvolumes is performed based on the lowest stress and thus provides an estimate of the lower bound of the probability of local failure. An algorithm for identifying this region, based on isostress surface parameterization is proposed. It is shown that in the case of material with strength following Weibull weak link statistics such a volume exists and its location and size are defined both by the stress distribution and the scatter of strength. Moreover the probability of failure predicted by using the CFV method was found to be close to that predicted by using traditional Weibull integral method and coincide with it in the case of uniform stress fields and in the limit of zero scatter of strength. Experiments performed on homogeneous epoxy resin plaques with and without holes showed that the predictions bound the experimentally measured open hole strength. The Weibull parameters used for prediction were obtained from testing only unnotched specimens of different dimensions. The effect of the hole size on tensile strength of heterogeneous materials such as quasi-isotropic carbon–epoxy composite laminates was considered next. Fiber failure was the only failure mechanism taken into account and a strain-based failure criterion was used in the form of a two parameter Weibull distribution. The stacking sequence was selected to minimize the effect of stress redistribution due to subcritical damage. Not unexpectedly an up to 30% underprediction of the strength of the laminates with small (2.54 mm diameter) holes was observed by using classical Weibull integral method as well as Weibull based CFV method. It was explained by examining the size of the CFV, which appeared to be below Rosen’s ineffective length estimate. The CFV method was modified to account for the presence of a limit scaling size of six ineffective lengths, consistent with recent Monte-Carlo simulations by Landis et al. [Landis CM, Beyerlin IJ, McMeeking RM. Micromechanical simulation of the failure of fiber reinforced composites. Mech Phys Solids 2000;48:621–48] and was able to describe the experimentally observed magnitude of the hole size effect on composite tensile strength in the examined range of 2.54–15.24 mm hole diameters.     

The asymptotic stochastic strength of bundles of elements exhibiting general stress–strain laws

The fiber bundle model is widely used in probabilistic modeling of various phenomena across different engineering fields, from network analysis to earthquake statistics. In structural strength analysis, this model is an essential part of extreme value statistics that governs the left tail of the cumulative probability density function of strength. Based on previous nano-mechanical arguments, the cumulative probability distribution function of strength of each fiber constituting the bundle is assumed to exhibit a power-law left tail. Each fiber (or element) of the bundle is supposed to be subjected to the same relative displacement (parallel coupling). The constitutive equations describing various fibers are assumed to be related by a radial affinity while no restrictions are placed on their particular form. It is demonstrated that, even under these most general assumptions, the power-law left tail is preserved in the bundle and the tail exponent of the bundle is the sum of the exponents of the power-law tails of all the fibers. The results have significant implications for the statistical modeling of strength of quasibrittle structures.     

Scaling of quasibrittle fracture: hypotheses of invasive and lacunar fractality, their critique and Weibull connection

Considerable progress has been achieved in fractal characterization of the properties of crack surfaces in quasibrittle materials such as concrete, rock, ice, ceramics and composites. Recently, fractality of cracks or microcracks was proposed as the explanation of the observed size effect on the nominal strength of structures. This explanation, though, has rested merely on intuitive analogy and geometric reasoning, and did not take into account the mechanics of crack propagation. In this paper, the energy-based asymptotic analysis of scaling presented in the preceding companion paper in this issue [1] is extended to the effect of fractality on scaling. First, attention is focused on the propagation of fractal crack curves (invasive fractals). The modifications of the scaling law caused by crack fractality are derived, both for quasibrittle failures after large stable crack growth and for failures at the initiation of a fractal crack in the boundary layer near the surface. Second, attention is focused on discrete fractal distribution of microcracks (lacunar fractals), which is shown to lead to an analogy with Weibull's statistical theory of size effect due to material strength randomness. The predictions ensuing from the fractal hypothesis, either invasive or lacunar, disagree with the experimentally confirmed asymptotic characteristics of the size effect in quasibrittle structures. It is also pointed out that considering the crack curve as a self-similar fractal conflicts with kinematics. This can be remedied by considering the crack to be an affine fractal. It is concluded that the fractal characteristics of either the fracture surface or the microcracking at the fracture front cannot have a significant influence on the law of scaling of failure loads, although they can affect the fracture characteristics. Walter P. Murphy, Professor| of This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Theoretical aspects of the statistical variation of strength

A modified version of Weibull's statistical theory of the strength of brittle materials is proposed, in which the expression for failure probability contains an additional term. While this term is negligible when failure originates from a flaw of relatively large size, it becomes increasingly significant as the flaw size is reduced. The resulting revised expressions for failure probability under uniform, uniaxial tension and under Hertzian indentation loading are given, and the effect of a bimodal flaw size distribution is considered in both cases. The implications with regard to the assumed invariance of Weibull statistical parameters under different experimental conditions are discussed.     

Probabilistic Weibull behavior and mechanical properties of MEMS brittle materials

The objective of this work is to present a brief overview of a probabilistic design methodology for brittle structures, review the literature for evidence of probabilistic behavior in the mechanical properties of MEMS (especially strength), and to investigate whether evidence exists that a probabilistic Weibull effect exists at the structural microscale. Since many MEMS devices are fabricated from brittle materials, that raises the question whether these miniature structures behave similar to bulk ceramics. For bulk ceramics, the term Weibull effect is used to indicate that significant scatter in fracture strength exists, hence requiring probabilistic rather than deterministic treatment. In addition, the material's strength behavior can be described in terms of the Weakest Link Theory (WLT) leading to strength dependence on the component's size (average strength decreases as size increases), and geometry/loading configuration (stress distribution). Test methods used to assess the mechanical properties of MEMS, especially strength, are reviewed. Four materials commonly used to fabricate MEMS devices are reviewed in this report. These materials are polysilicon, single crystal silicon (SCS), silicon nitride, and silicon carbide.     

A statistical model of cleavage fracture

The aim of the paper is to provide a sound theoretical basis to the statistics of cleavage fracture in three-dimensional cracked structures. The probability of critically sized carbide being present in a Fracture Initiation Zone ahead of the crack tip has been derived, and shown to have a two-parameter Weibull distribution, with a shape parameter that is proportional to the strain-hardening exponent of the material. In a three-dimensional structure the cracking of such critically sized, intergranular carbide is necessary, but may not be sufficient to precipitate brittle fracture; this is because intergranular carbide is randomly orientated within the crack-opening stress field, so its orientation must also be unfavourable. It has been hypothesised that in three-dimensional structures the actual probability of fracture will be an extreme from the necessary distribution, in which case a sample of fracture toughness observations will be described by a Gumbel distribution, called here the LED model. After discussing the minimum number of fracture toughness observations needed to fit the model, its strength of evidence is compared with those of other candidate models, including the Master Curve model, and the LED model is shown to be the best.     

Computational modeling of size effects in concrete specimens under uniaxial tension

The paper presents a follow-up study of numerical modeling of complicated interplay of size effects in concrete structures. The major motivation is to identify and study interplay of several scaling lengths stemming from the material, boundary conditions and geometry. Methods of stochastic nonlinear fracture mechanics are used to model the well published results of direct tensile tests of dog-bone specimens with rotating boundary conditions. Firstly, the specimens are modeled using microplane material and also fracture-plastic material laws to show that a portion of the dependence of nominal strength on structural size can be explained deterministically. However, it is clear that more sources of size effect play a part, and we consider two of them. Namely, we model local material strength using an autocorrelated random field attempting to capture a statistical part of the combined size effect, scatter inclusive. In addition, the strength drop noticeable with small specimens which was obtained in the experiments could be explained either by the presence of a weak surface layer of constant thickness (caused e.g. by drying, surface damage, aggregate size limitation at the boundary, or other irregularities) or three dimensional effects incorporated by out-of-plane flexure of specimens. The latter effect is examined by comparison of 2D and 3D models with the same material laws. All three named sources (deterministic-energetic, statistical size effects and the weak layer effect) are believed to be the sources most contributing to the observed strength size effect; the model combining all of them is capable of reproducing the measured data. The computational approach represents a marriage of advanced computational nonlinear fracture mechanics with simulation techniques for random fields representing spatially varying material properties. Using a numerical example, we document how different sources of size effects detrimental to strength can interact and result in relatively complicated quasibrittle failure processes. The presented study documents the well known fact that the experimental determination of material parameters (needed for the rational and safe design of structures) is very complicated for quasibrittle materials such as concrete.     

Effects of geometry and specimen size on out-of-plane tensile strength of aligned CFRP determined by direct tensile method

The out-of-plane tensile strength of CFRP laminate determined by the direct tensile method varies with specimen geometry and size. This effect was first experimentally observed using aligned CFRP. To explain the geometry and size effects from a mechanical point of view, an analytical model combining Weibull statistics, including the concept of effective volume, and a fracture criterion under multi-axial loading was constructed on the basis of stress distributions calculated using the finite element method. The predicted out-of-plane tensile strength of aligned CFRP was found to be consistent with experimental results. Thus, the present model is useful for reducing experimentally determined out-of-plane tensile strength under complex stress distributions to that under a uniaxial and uniform stress distribution.     

On the representative volume element of asphalt concrete at low temperature

The feasibility of characterizing asphalt mixtures’ rheological and failure properties at low temperatures by means of the Bending Beam Rheometer (BBR) is investigated in this paper. The main issue is the use of thin beams of asphalt mixture in experimental procedures that may not capture the true behavior of the material used to construct an asphalt pavement.For the rheological characterization, three-point bending creep tests are performed on beams of different sizes. The beams are also analyzed using digital image analysis to obtain volumetric fraction, average size distribution, and spatial correlation functions. Based on the experimental results and analyses, it is concluded that representative creep stiffness values of asphalt mixtures can be obtained from testing at least three replicates of the thin (BBR) mixture beams.Failure properties are investigated by performing strength tests using a modified Bending Beam Rheometer (BBR), capable of applying loads at different loading rates. Histogram testing of BBR mixture beams and of larger beams is performed and the failure distribution is analyzed based on the size effect theory for quasibrittle materials. Different Weibull moduli are obtained from the two specimens sizes, which indicates that BBR beams do not capture the representative volume element (RVE) of the material.     

Residual strength prediction of composite materials: Random spectrum loading

The goal of this project is to identify if and how load order impacts residual strength in an E-glass/vinyl ester composite laminate subjected to variable amplitude fatigue loading. This paper presents results for constant amplitude loading data which, are used to fit parameters for a phenomenological model that can then applied to the spectrum loading cases. The residual strength distribution shape, in addition to median values, is modeled using Weibull statistics. Three cases are run experimentally and modeled for a 735,641 cycle spectrum containing 22 stress levels. The first two are ordered block loading, from highest stress to lowest and from lowest stress to the highest. In both cases, the model predicts the resulting residual strength distribution very accurately. A final case where the entire spectrum was randomized produced unexpected results with every specimen failing after 200,000-400,000 cycles while the model predicts identical residual strength when compared with the block loading case. This work points to a dire need for focus on developing a better understanding of load order impacts in design of composite structures based on constant amplitude fatigue tests.     

A physical probabilistic model to predict failure rates in buried PVC pipelines

For older water pipeline materials such as cast iron and asbestos cement, future pipe failure rates can be extrapolated from large volumes of existing historical failure data held by water utilities. However, for newer pipeline materials such as polyvinyl chloride (PVC), only limited failure data exists and confident forecasts of future pipe failures cannot be made from historical data alone. To solve this problem, this paper presents a physical probabilistic model, which has been developed to estimate failure rates in buried PVC pipelines as they age. The model assumes that under in-service operating conditions, crack initiation can occur from inherent defects located in the pipe wall. Linear elastic fracture mechanics theory is used to predict the time to brittle fracture for pipes with internal defects subjected to combined internal pressure and soil deflection loading together with through-wall residual stress. To include uncertainty in the failure process, inherent defect size is treated as a stochastic variable, and modelled with an appropriate probability distribution. Microscopic examination of fracture surfaces from field failures in Australian PVC pipes suggests that the 2-parameter Weibull distribution can be applied. Monte Carlo simulation is then used to estimate lifetime probability distributions for pipes with internal defects, subjected to typical operating conditions. As with inherent defect size, the 2-parameter Weibull distribution is shown to be appropriate to model uncertainty in predicted pipe lifetime. The Weibull hazard function for pipe lifetime is then used to estimate the expected failure rate (per pipe length/per year) as a function of pipe age. To validate the model, predicted failure rates are compared to aggregated failure data from 17 UK water utilities obtained from the United Kingdom Water Industry Research (UKWIR) National Mains Failure Database. In the absence of actual operating pressure data in the UKWIR database, typical values from Australian water utilities were assumed to apply. While the physical probabilistic failure model shows good agreement with data recorded by UK water utilities, actual operating pressures from the UK is required to complete the model validation.