论实物期权法在采矿权出让评估中的必要性

简述了矿业权评估的准确与否直接影响矿业权市场的公平交易和国家的利益,然而矿业投资领域的矿产品价格波动大、不确定性高,传统的折现现金流法(DCF法),由于种种原因导致所得出的价格与实际价值之间存在显著差异,容易造成国有资产流失。探讨了实物期权法在矿业权出让评估中的应用,表明其能够更合理地评估矿业权的价值,从而减少国有资产的流失。     

论实物期权法在采矿权出让评估中的必要性

简述了矿业权评估的准确与否直接影响矿业权市场的公平交易和国家的利益,然而矿业投资领域的矿产品价格波动大、不确定性高,传统的折现现金流法(DCF法),由于种种原因导致所得出的价格与实际价值之间存在显著差异,容易造成国有资产流失。探讨了实物期权法在矿业权出让评估中的应用,表明其能够更合理地评估矿业权的价值,从而减少国有资产的流失。     

矿业权评估的实物期权方法研究初探

矿业权评估的准确与否直接影响矿业权市场的交易和国家的利益 ,矿业投资领域的矿产品价格波动大 ,不确定性高 ,传统的折现现金流法由于预期现金流的不准、对折现率的选取困难、以及不能反映管理的灵活性而容易低估项目的价值 ,导致对项目的误评。矿业权评估的实物期权方法优于传统的DCF法 ,能克服DCF法的弱点 ,更合理地评估矿业权的价值。     

实物期权方法在矿业权评估中的应用初探

矿业权评估的准确与否直接影响矿业权市场的交易和国家的利益，矿业投资领域的矿产品价格波动大，不确定性高，传统的折现现金流法DCF法）由于预期现金流的不准，对折现率的选取困难，以及不能反映管理的灵活性而容易低估项目的价值，导致对项目的误评，矿业权评估的实物期权方法优于传统的DCT法，能克服DCF法的弱点，更合理地评估矿业权的价值。     

应用实物期权理论修正矿业权评估中的折现金流法:以山东某金矿投资项目为例

矿业权不仅是一种使用权,而且还包括对矿区环境保护和资源节约的义务;不仅包括探矿权、采矿权,也包括介于两者之间的边际矿权.对评估理论的研究表明,我国现阶段的折现率的内容与国外有很大不同,折现率值也缺乏弹性.DCF法(折现金流法)中未考虑到矿业权开发和管理的不确定性(uncertainty)和弹性(flexibility),实物期权法(ROV)能够弥补这一缺陷.对山东某金矿的矿业权价值的根据两种方法进行案例评估,进一步证明了实物期权法(ROV)是一种可行、有效和更为合理的价值评估方法,是DCF法的有价值的补充方法.     

贴现现金流法在矿业权评估中的应用

在矿业投资开发中,矿业权的评估起到至关重要的作用.但是,由于矿业投资开发活动的多因素、不确定性,如何对矿业权进行准确的评估,直接关系到矿业投资活动的顺利进行.本文介绍了贴现现金流法在矿业权评估中的应用.以A煤矿为例,对该煤矿勘查区的矿业权基础价值进行了详细估算,直观展示了贴现现金流法计算矿业权的流程.同时,分析了运用贴现现金流法评估矿业权价值时存在的一些问题.     

实物期权中的二叉树模型在矿业权中的应用

用实物期权法评估我国矿业权的价值．主要采用的是Black-Scholes公式法．本文针对Black-Scholes法中的缺点，提出了二叉树模型法，弥补了Black-Scholes公式法的不足．并以晓南矿为实例，用二叉树模型法对其矿业权进行了评估．说明了应用二叉树模型法对矿业权进行评估是有效的和切实可行的。     

油气勘探经济评价的实物期权法与传统方法的综述分析与比较研究

本文综述分析了油气勘探项目的各种经济评价方法，包括传统方法和实物期权法，传统方法有净现值等现金流贴现法、不确定性分析法等，实物期权法有B-S定价模型和二叉树定价模型；通过比较研究从而指出了实物期权法的合理性——评估了石油勘探项目的不确定性所带来的投资机会柔性管理的期权价值，突破了传统经济评价方法的内在局限。     

实物期权在油气储量价值评估中的应用

本文讨论了国内外储量价值评估方法，在指出净现值方法不足的基础上，将期权思想引入净现值方法中，用期权定价模型和实物期权理论对传统净现值法作了修正，并结合实例，用修正后的净现值法评估油气储量的价值，研究表明，经期权理论修正的净现值法可以在某种程度上反映不确定性的价值，从而更真实地反映油气储量的价值。     

基于实物期权法的石油开采项目评价方法研究

石油开采项目具有典型的实物期权特征,国外许多学者对实物期权方法在油田等方面的应用进行了研究,国内针对油田具体实际情况进行实物期权法的应用研究还很少.本文介绍了实物期权法的基本理论和特点,并采用Blaek-Scholes定价模型进行了案例分析,且与传统的净现值法对比分析,得出净现值法低估了项目的价值,而实物期权法则充分考虑了项目不确定条件下的灵活性价值,因而进一步保证了石油开采决策的科学性.     

The application of option pricing theory to the evaluation of mining investment

A rational evaluation on an investment project forms the basis of a right investment decision-making. The discounted cash flow ( DCF for short) method is usually used as a traditional evaluation method for a project investment. However, as the mining investment is influenced by many uncertainties, DCF method cannot take into account these uncertainties and often underestimates the value of an investment project. Based on the option pricing theory of the modem financial assets, the characteristics of a real project investment are discussed, and the management option of mine managers and its pricing method are described.     

国际环境不确定下海外采矿权评估研究

在实物期权理论框架下,基于Black-Schole采矿权评估模型,提出了计量国际环境不确定性的方法以及将其纳入评估模型的途径,以此优化完善海外采矿权评估; 通过一实例验证了本文所述方法的可行性,并依据评估结果进一步分析了投资策略,最后对所提方法的可靠性进行了检验。研究结果显示: ① 采矿权价值来自于矿业权人对矿产资源的开采加工及具有灵活经营的权利,国际环境的不确定变化影响采矿权价值及投资策略。② 矿产品价格升高、价格波动率增加、驻在国矿业行业环境和国家环境变异程度的增加、矿山服务年限的增加,均提高了海外采矿权价值; 但矿产品价格下降、矿山服务年限减少将降低采矿权价值。③ 当矿产品价格持续处于低位时,项目应尽早建设或放弃; 而当价格处于增长或高位时,项目可适当推迟建设。④ 老挝矿业行业环境的变异程度大于该国国家环境的变异程度,前往老挝投资的矿企应重点关注该国涉及矿业投资的法律法规及政策,重点防范行业风险。⑤ 本文所提海外采矿权评估方法是可行、可靠的,具有一定实践意义。     

Valuing the unknown: could the real options have redeemed the ailing Western Australian junior iron ore operations in 2013–2016 iron price crash

ABSTRACT

The inability of existing analytical models to accurately predict future events has, at times, led to the economic failure of mining operations whose financial viabilities were determined based on static assumptions, leaving operational managers with little room to make future decisions. Therefore, the application of a robust decision-making tool, such as Real Options (RO) can minimise losses and more accurately express uncertainty. This paper has considered a stochastic simulation to analyse ROs for a real case iron ore mine, which closed in April 2016. In comparing the net present value from the traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) method to delay, to abandon the operations and to stage the investment options, the ROs method increased the project value by between 56% and 195% depending on the volatility. As a new contribution, a managerial flexibility domain map is proposed in this paper. Thus, flexibility in mining operations creates agility, increases value and mitigates financial losses.     

浅议矿业权评估中的贴(折)现现金流法

阐述了矿产资源资产价值的含义、DCF法应用于矿业权评估的原理，详细介绍了新指南在应用DCF法中存在的一些问题。     

Mine expansion decisions under uncertainty

Most mining projects are multi-phase investments and possess options for expanding mine life beyond the initially estimated one. Such strategic expansion options can have a significant influence on the economic viability of the mining project. However, the decision to go ahead with a mine expansion proposal can represent a challenge to decision-makers who must fully take into account uncertainty and risk. In this respect, the expand/not-to-expand recommendation based on a static conventional financial analysis can be misleading as it ignores real life complexities imposed by uncertain future outcomes. The now-or-never principle of the popular static merit measures might be not well suited to support such strategic expansion decisions given the dynamic nature of their value drivers. This article investigates how to deal with uncertainty when analysing mine expansion decisions. The proposed procedure is based on a simulation-based real options valuation model that can handle the complexities of mine production profiles and mining costs without oversimplification. A case study of a hypothetical copper project is provided to demonstrate the suggested procedures for analysing the mine expansion options under uncertainty. The results indicate that the decision rules for exercising the mine expansion option are highly dependent on the associated uncertainty level. The results also show how ignoring uncertainty in the conventional financial analysis can affect the expansion decision.     

采矿权退出补偿金协商范围与非直接补偿研究

为了深入贯彻落实生态文明建设的理念,我国政府已发布一系列政策要求清退自然保护区内的采矿权。当前评估采矿权退出补偿的方式主要为应用折现现金流量法(DCF法),由于折现现金流量法的缺陷以及采矿权退出补偿需要经过谈判才能确定过程,本文通过研究提出了采矿权退出补偿金协商范围。其中,协商范围上限由实物期权方法计算,协商范围下限由套期保值比率和净现值法计算。此外,为降低地方政府的补偿金筹资压力,研究了非直接补偿方案,提出了补偿金资产证券化方案,期望通过采矿权退出补偿金谈判范围与非直接补偿研究推动采矿权退出实现顺利执行。     

现金流量法在采矿权评估中出现的一种失真现象及其解决方案

在采矿权评估中,运用现金流量法评估中晚期生产矿山采矿权价值时可能会产生一种失真现象。本文分析了这种失真现象,剖析了其本质,提出了具体评估实务中的解决方案。     

Incorporating Hydrologic Uncertainty in Industrial Economic Models: Implications of Extreme Rainfall Variability on Metal Mining Investments

Water balance uncertainties have long been known to lead to potential environmental hazards, but their effect on economic profitability of mines is an under-studied field of research. Historical rainfall data are analyzed using the extreme value theory (EVT) and the peak over threshold method (POT). The resulting distributions are used as inputs into a system dynamics techno-economic metal mining investment profitability model, and simulation analysis is performed. The proposed methodology incorporates rainfall extremes and uncertainty into techno-economic modeling of metal mining operations. A case study with real-life historical rainfall data was used to illustrate the relationship between hydrologic uncertainty and the economic value of a metal mining investment.

     

基于期权的矿产资源采矿权估价单因素模型

矿产资源采矿权可以被认为是一个多期多阶段的复合看涨期权,在基于期权的采矿权价值形成机理研究基础上,假定无采矿权交易成本、不考虑关闭和开启矿山时的成本和矿山的永久性废弃以及利率为无风险利率,研究了矿产资源储量价值随机波动下的基于期权的矿产资源采矿权估价单因素模型,并结合一煤炭资源实例对比了收益现值法与单因素模型,发现期权估价方法较收益现值法能提高矿产资源采矿权价值。