日本“电荒”与弃核之路

福岛核电事故之后，日本2／3的核电被关停，致使该国出现了严重“电荒”。在是否放弃核电的争议中，日本未来能源之路将如何选择？     

福岛核危机与中国核电发展

福岛核电事故给人类深刻的教训,但是不管你喜欢与否,随着今后几十年化石能源进一步的枯竭和昂贵,人类不得不选择发展核能。日本福岛核电站遭遇了罕见的地震和海啸袭击,发生了严重核泄漏事故,事故至今仍未完全控制住,引起了国际社会的密切关切。福岛核事故的发生。给全世界正在回暖复苏的核电产业以沉重打击,对核电技术不太了解的普通民众通过福岛核事故的报道感到恐慌,核电业内人士对事故的发生感到痛心。     

福岛第一核电站核污染事故的原因及其影响 本刊记者与上海核工程设计研究院前总工程师蔡剑平访谈

2011年3月11日下午日本发生强地震,福岛第一核电站遭到严重破坏导致放射性物质的泄漏,已经引起了世界各国的高度关注。近年来全球提倡低碳经济,核电站作为一种最好的低碳能源重新受到各国政府的重视,我国也将积极发展核电。福岛第一核电站事故对今后的核电发展有什么影响,事故为     

核能，你慢慢来

英国：核电照常长起 英国政府10月初发布了对日本福岛核电站事故的最终报告。报告认为英国的核电引发剂存在像福岛核电站那样的问题,英国将继续发展核电。英国能源与气候变化大臣克里斯·休恩10月11日向英国议会提交了这份报告,报告由英国首席核检查官麦克·韦特曼领导完成。在3月份日本福岛核电站因地震和海啸发生事故后,休恩要求韦特曼完成针对这一事件的报告。5月份英政府曾发布一份初步报告,现在发布的是最终报告。     

日本地震对上海能源安全和能源产业的影响分析

日本大地震将会对世界各国的核电发展带来负面影响,同样也会给我国能源发展带来一定的影响。基于上海能源安全和能源产业现状,日本大地震短期内不会对上海的能源安全和能源产业产生明显的影响;但从中长期看,福岛核电站事故的发生,将给上海的新能源产业特别是风力发电设备行业,以及智能电网的发展带来重大机遇。     

后福岛时代核电技术升级和小型堆的发展

日本福岛核电站事故引发全球关于核电安全性的关注,核电是否能继续发展为世界提供清洁能源,其安全性成了一个重要的因素。为了解决能源发展困境和核电安全性的问题,拥有非能动安全性、高热效率等优势的第四代反应堆逐渐进入大众的视野;同时,具有安全、灵活、可靠、经济性好等特点的小型堆也应运而生。文章着重介绍第四代反应堆和小型堆的发展对核电领域带来的技术升级。     

五大发电集团欲发力核电 酝酿巨大空间

正据核电专家介绍,五大发电集团2014年均有积极发展核电的打算。近日中国华电集团与中核集团签署核电项目合作协议。中国华能集团成立核电专家委员会。唯一拥有"核电开发控股资质"的中国电力投资集团公司,其参与的辽宁红沿河核电项目将在今年有较快的推进。由于日本福岛发生核泄漏事故影响巨大,也令我国民用核电项目建设一度停滞。但如今严重     

日本或将迎来可再生能源发电高峰

据悉,福岛核泄漏事故迫使日本重新衡量核电在电力供应中的地位,可再生能源将成为日本能源政策的关键支柱。然而,有分析人士指出,若完全以可再生能源发电替代被关停的核电,日本必须新增以风能和太阳能为     

寰球能源动态

能能源战略与政策扫描欧洲电力将全部由自然能源提供エコノミスト,2011-05-24:34～35欧洲各国正在推进电力供应由依赖核电转向自然能源的能源政策。受福岛核电事故影响,不仅日本,世界也遭到大的冲击,在去核     

生物质能发展目标抑或超越太阳能

"受日本核事故影响,核电发展的安全性更受重视,由此可能会影响其发展的速度。"国家发展改革委能源研究所高级顾问周凤起分析指出,生物质能发电成本低而太阳能发电成本高,是导致生物质能未来5年发展更快的主因之一。目前,战略性新兴产业发展"十二     

福岛核危机后日本新能源格局的转变及其影响与启示

日本新能源的发展趋势会对全球的能源变革产生巨大作用。从第一次石油危机至今,日本的新能源无论是总量还是在能源结构中所占的份额都有了质的飞跃,这不仅是因为新能源的技术和设备有了长足进步,更重要的是来自日本政府能源政策的支持,但2011年的福岛核危机将彻底改变日本的能源格局。日本政府宣布将中止核电发展计划,可再生能源将成为下一步能源发展战略的核心。然而日本的规模化可再生能源过程也面临着如何弥补核电站退役后的电力缺口、国土面积狭小、电网网架薄弱以及因电价过高导致的巨额补贴费用等诸多困难。与此同时也给日本带来了新的发展机遇,可再生能源将成为日本经济新的增长点。日本核危机使全球核能遭遇低潮期,而可再生能源将迎来新的发展机遇,这有可能催生第三次产业革命。同时也认识到,能源来源的过于单一化使得能源风险加剧,需要建立健全的、快速的能源应急机制,加大国际间能源合作,突破能源技术壁垒。此次日本核危机促使中国反思自身的核电发展策略。中国具有丰富的可再生能源资源,当前应抓住这一发展机遇,加大产品技术含量,切勿盲目扩大生产规模,同时拓展非主流型可再生能源生产设备市场。政府要把握整体布局,避免出现区域性生产"过度"。     

2011年中国核电发展状况、未来趋势及政策建议

2011年我国核电行业获得较快发展,核电装机及发电量显著增加,各机组总体运行稳定,核电设备国产化大步前进、装备制造能力及建设安装能力快速提升。我国实验快堆实现并网运行,先进核电技术获得突破。尽管存在日本福岛311核事故影响,我国核电发展暂时减缓。由于我们进行了认真的总结、反思及采取相应措施,总体上有利于我国核电行业的长期健康发展,未来我国核电发展预期前景依然光明。     

福岛核危机对日本能源战略的影响及启示

至本世纪前10年,核能已成为日本能源供应中不可或缺的重要因素,然而,2011年因"东日本大地震"引发的福岛核危机却动摇了日本继续发展核能的信心,不得不对现有的能源战略进行调整。福岛核危机对日本原来制定的能源战略产生了巨大影响,其中包括能源战略目标难以实现,加剧了对化石燃料的依赖;造成大量的电力缺口,总发电量减少了1/4,导致消费者用电成本急剧增加;短期内不得不增加液化天然气、原油、燃料油和煤炭等化石能源的进口量,加剧了日本能源安全的不确定性。为了缓解福岛核危机所造成的一系列负面影响并保障能源安全,日本政府重新制定了能源战略——重点集中在去核能化,去核能化是顺应民意、安抚民心,并防止核事故再次发生的根本性战略,是日本的必然选择;同时高度重视可再生能源的发展,可再生能源发电比例将由2010年的10%跃升至2030年的35%,总发电量将由2010年的1100×108kW.h提高到2030年的3000×108kW.h;大力实施节约能源战略,提出2030年电力消耗量在2010年的基础上节约1100×108kW.h,能源消耗量在2010年的基础上节约720×108L;另外,日本政府还对电力系统进行改革。结合我国的能源战略及核电发展现状,日本的能源战略调整给予我国的启示包括:要将核安全置于首要地位、加速可再生能源发展和坚持节约能源战略。     

Review of Japan's power generation scenarios in light of the Fukushima nuclear accident

Following on from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, the Japanese government is now in the throes of reviewing its power policy. Under continuing policies of economic revival and greenhouse gas reduction, it is crucial to consider scenarios for the country to realize reliable, low‐carbon, and economic electricity systems in the future. On the other hand, the social acceptance of nuclear power will affect the final political decision significantly. Therefore, in the present study, proposed power generation scenarios in Japan in light of the Fukushima accident were reviewed comprehensively from economic, environmental, technological, resource, security, and social perspectives. The review concludes that in Japan, (i) renewable energy mainly solar and wind needs to be developed as fast as possible subject to various constraints, (ii) more gas power plants will be used to absorb the fluctuations of intermittent renewable energy and supply electricity gap, (iii) nuclear power will be reduced in the future, but a 0% nuclear power scenario by 2030 is unlikely to be a reasonable choice on most measures and (iv) the effective communication with the public is vital important. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Asian international grid connection and potentiality of DC superconducting power transmission

In 2011, a large scale earthquake and tsunami hit the northeastern coast of Japan, and nuclear plants were damaged to a large extent. Before the Tsunami, 54 nuclear plants were operated, however presently, only three nuclear plants are in operation. Therefore, Japan is suffering from high price of electricity and low supply reliability. In generation mix, nuclear plants generate only one percent and 87 percent of electricity is generated by fossil energy. This is not preferable for Japan from the viewpoints of energy security and stable electricity supply. Therefore, it is mandatory to increase sustainable energy and to decrease consumption of fossil fuel. International grid connection and the Global Energy Interconnection will be one of countermeasures against these problems existing in Japan. In this paper, international grid connection initiatives proposed in Asia are described and features and issues of electric power grids in Japan are discussed to implement the international grid connection. As the key technology for implementing the international grid connection, the present status of DC superconducting power transmission lines and power converters for long-distance power transmission lines are presented. In conclusion, conditions and legal frameworks for realizing the international grid connection are described.     

The Japanese energy sector: Current situation,and future paths

As the world’s third leading economy and a major importer of fuels, the choice of future energy paths and policies that Japan makes in the next few years will have a significant influence on the energy security of the world as a whole, and of the Northeast Asia region in particular. In this article we describe the current status of and recent trends in the Japanese energy sector, including energy demand and supply by fuel and by sector. We then discuss the current energy policy situation in Japan, focusing on policies related to climate change targets, renewable energy development and deployment, liberalization of energy markets, and the evolution of the Japanese nuclear power sector. The final section of the article presents the structure of the Japan LEAP (long-range energy alternatives planning software system) dataset, describes several alternative energy paths for Japan – with an emphasis on alternative paths for nuclear power development and GHG emission abatement – and touches upon key current issues of energy policy facing Japan, as reflected in the modeling inputs and results.     

日本是否会放弃核能——日本能源政策走向分析

能源作为日本震后经济社会发展的中长期政策大纲《日本再生基本战略》的主要支柱之一,日本能源政策的走向尤为值得关注.从短期看,日本将加大核能监管,继续扩大核电制造出口,完全弃核是不可能的;从长期看,日本会逐步降低核能在能源结构中的比例.由于核电的关停,造成日本电力供应不足,进而导致对火力发电政策的支持力度增强,未来对化石能源的依赖局面仍将持续.同时,由于核能政策的调整,一方面使得节能及提高能源使用效率成为新的支柱,另一方面可再生能源将成为重要的发展方向.近10年来,日本可再生能源占能源结构的比例一直没什么变化,约为10％,这与日本政府支持核能战略的政策导向不无关系.日本当前发展可再生能源的主要障碍是缺乏政府的长期政策扶持,其次是开发难度大、发电成本高、系统稳定性低.日本目前需要解决的课题包括全量购买制度等相关政策的导入,大幅度降低成本和解决稳定性关键技术,有效解决可再生能源利用的地域化差异等.总的来看,日本新的能源政策基本是围绕减少对核电的依赖和应对全球气候变暖来制定的.     

美国核能辩论现状与政策趋向分析

美国国内在是否利用核能发电这个问题上一直存在争议,拥核派和反核派的分歧主要是在核电成本是否高、核能是否安全以及核能是否属于清洁能源等方面。受日本核危机影响,美国核能辩论的重点转向核能安全,主要围绕核电站抵御自然灾害的能力、核废料储存、是否应该新建核电站以及延长现有核电站运营期限等问题展开。由于历次重大核事故后,新建核电站成本势必上升,加之美国各州新建核电站积极性不高,国际大环境也不利于拥核派,同时核能面临化石能源和可再生能源的激烈竞争,因此短期内美国核能开发步伐势必会放慢。但是从长期看,核能仍将是美国能源战略的重点之一,究其原因,发展核能是美国能源安全与经济发展的需要,也是应对气候变化的需要,另外,拥核派的积极游说和公关行动、反核派内部立场出现分化以及日本核危机的长期影响有限等也都是其原因之一。我国是世界上在建核反应堆数量最多的国家,但是围绕核能的公开辩论却很少,这不利于我国核能的开发。核能的辩论过程,也是核能知识普及的过程,只有对核能有深入全面的认识,才能减少对核能非理性的恐惧。我国绝不能因为一次核事故而改变战略方向,而应在吸取教训的基础上,在保证绝对安全的前提下,继续发展核能。     

Evaluating options for the future energy mix of Japan after the Fukushima nuclear crisis

The Fukushima nuclear accident in March 2011 has increased social and political reluctance to embrace nuclear power in Japan (and elsewhere). The Japanese government has thus been considering four possible future energy mixes, including a nuclear-free pathway, and three others with 10%–35% nuclear supply coupled with a larger proportion of renewable energy and fossil fuels to replace nuclear. Here we use multi-criteria decision-making analysis (MCDMA) to assess the potential negative economic (levelised cost of electricity, and energy security), environmental (greenhouse-gas emissions, land transformation, water consumption, heated water discharge, air pollution, radioactive waste, and solid waste) and social (safety issues) impacts of the four proposed pathways to determine which scenario most holistically minimises adverse future outcomes. The nuclear-free pathway has the highest overall potential for adverse outcomes (score=2.49 out of 3), and the 35% nuclear power supply option yielding the lowest negative impact score (0.74) without weightings. Despite some sensitivity to the choice of criterion weights, our analyses demonstrate clearly that from an empirical perspective, a nuclear-free pathway for Japan is the worst option to pursue. We recommend that MCDMA methodology we used for Japan can be applied to other countries to evaluate future electricity generation scenarios.     

Effects of nuclear power plant shutdowns on electricity consumption and greenhouse gas emissions after the Tohoku Earthquake

This study analyzes how the substitution of fossil fuels for nuclear power due to the shutdown of nuclear power plants after the Tohoku Earthquake affects electricity consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in Japan. Results indicate that Japan generated 4.3 million metric tons (or 0.3%, with a 95% confidence interval) of additional CO₂ emissions in 2011 following the earthquake. The increase in CO₂ emissions stemmed from the combined effects of decreased electricity consumption due to energy conservation efforts and the substitution of fossil fuels for nuclear power following the Tohoku Earthquake. Results also show considerable spatial variation in the impacts of the earthquake on net CO₂ emissions. A majority of the prefectures (40 of 47 prefectures, or 85%) were predicted to experience higher CO₂ emissions after the Tohoku Earthquake while the remaining (7 prefectures) were predicted to experience lower CO₂ emissions. Our findings suggest that Japan and countries under similar risks may want to reformulate energy policy by emphasizing utilization of diverse power and energy sources, including more renewable energy production and electricity conservation. The policy reform should also consider spatial variation in the combined effects of reduced reliance on nuclear power and increased CO₂ conversion factors.