IEA调整全球石油需求增长预期

<正>Energy Daily,2014-10-14国际能源署(IEA)2014年10月14日表示,较低的经济增长预期意味着全球石油需求将下降,但将在2015年复苏。总部位于巴黎的国际能源署发布的10月份的月度市场报告表示,将预测的2014年石油需求从上月报告的数据中削减20×104bbl/d,为9240×104bbl/d。IEA将需求减少的理由归因为较低的经济增长。欧佩克在其月度报告中把预测的2014年石油需求增长维持在105×104bbl/d。据IEA预测,2014年年度需求增长70×104bbl/d,由于宏观经济背景的改变,暂时预     

从政策视角看全球能源趋势与气候变化谈判前景

本文以各国能源政策为背景,分析了全球在可再生能源发展、低碳经济、提高燃料经济性、降低能源强度和护林造林以及推动核能利用方面的世界性趋势;并指出哥本哈根会议在气候谈判中难以达成定量化减排协议。     

页岩油气革命引发全球石油市场变革

<正>当前,北美页岩油气繁荣正在引发全球石油市场的一场大变革,美国在石油市场中的地位异军突起。页岩油气革命深入改变着全球能源市场。随着页岩油气产量不断激增,美国开始冲击石油输出国组织欧佩克"石油霸主"的地位。华尔街投行高盛集团发布报告认为,美国页岩油行业的繁荣发展已经创造出"石油新秩序",其影响力将超越欧佩克。高盛集团在其报告中表示,美国的页岩油将会取代欧佩克,成为原油生产的最大决定性因素;与此同时,欧佩克正在失去定价权,全球石油生产量的增长超过了需求的增长。由于美国这匹"黑马"的闯入,世界石油市场供应更加充裕。与此同时,世界石油需求增长相对缓慢,原油市场从原来的供应偏紧转为供应过剩。在双重压力之下,国际石油价格步步下行。2014年下半年以来,国际油价累计下跌近30%。普氏能源资讯全球石油编辑总监埃斯瓦瑞·拉马萨米认为,国际油价下跌的根本原因在于供需失衡。全球主要经济体发展增速放缓,导致需求疲弱,但中东维持高产,美国新增石油产能不断提高,进口进一步减少。在专家看来,原油市场     

石油能源消费与经济发展关系研究综述与展望

以石油为例,对能源消费和经济发展之间的关系进行研究和分析,并对其未来的发展进行简要的阐述.     

《世界能源展望2009》对我国的启示

本文分析了《世界能源展望2009》中有关450情景对我国参与气候变化的主要影响,指出该情景的减排基准过高,情景中描述的全球减排协议标准对我国工业及交通行业发展影响巨大,所规定的从2021年开始给主要发展中国家实施碳排放总量限额将全面影响我国经济发展。     

2007年绿色和平组织发布《能源革命——中国可持续能源展望》

为了探讨国际社会如何改变能源结构来应对气候变化的挑战,绿色和平组织和欧洲可再生能源委员会进行了历时一年多的《能源革命》研究项目,并特别针对中国的情况进行重点分析。2007年绿色和平组织在北京发布《能源革命——中国可持续能源展望》报告。《能源革命——中国可持续能源展望》综合了国际权威机构和专家对全球和中国的能源结构     

世界能源趋势与上海节能进程——《BP世界能源统计2008》发布会召开

由BP、上海市能源研究会主办、上海市节能协会、上海市石油学会协办的《世界能源趋势与上海节能进程——〈BP世界能源统计2008〉》发布会于7月9日召开。上海市发改委总经济师周亚、BP集团副总裁、亚太区总裁德开端博士在会上先后致辞。     

从《世界能源统计年鉴》看世界能源供需变化

<正>大概10年前,美国和加拿大还是石油进口增量巨大的国家,而如今却跃身成为石油出口国。为什么会发生如此巨变?BP集团首席经济学家克里斯托夫.鲁尔日前在2013年《BP世界能源统计年鉴》中文版(以下简称《年鉴》)发布会上强调,这不是因为加拿大拥有油砂、美国拥有页岩资源,世界其他国家也拥有丰富的类似资源。最主要的原因在于美加具有非常开放的、竞争充分的能源市场环境,这进而会促使企业,尤其是反应灵     

《2008全球可持续能源投资趋势报告》发布

7月18日下午,联合国环境规划署为实施"可持续能源金融行动计划",在联合国大楼正式发布了<2008全球可持续能源投资趋势报告>.联合国环境规划署驻华代表张世刚先生和英国新能源财经有限公司北京代表处首席代表应俊先生出席发布会,他们解读了投资报告,并回答了记者提问.     

Outlook for the international oil market and options for OPEC

A fundamental misinterpretation of post-1970 events in the international oil market has severely curbed oil demand and led to conditions in which much of the world's lowest cost reserves of energy are in danger of remaining unexploited. There is, instead, an increasing use of inherently higher cost sources of energy, so undermining world economic growth prospects. A return to the preferential use of low cost oil (and gas), without further exacerbating already strained North-South relationships, can now only be achieved in the context of a difficult-to-negotiate OPEC-OECD agreement on a long-term development strategy.     

Price and prospects for oil : Carrying the burden of excess capacity in the 1980s and beyond

The continuing decline in world oil prices will not be halted in the short term, and prospects for the long run are not encouraging. There is a problem of unprecedented gravity in the surplus capacity of the oil industry. A glut of 10 million bbl/day of crude oil remains unsold, the cohesion of the OPEC cartel is becoming more strained, and a sizeable proportion of refinery plant has been taken off-stream. The basic difficulty is that high interest rates have curbed international capital formation and depressed demand. Upward pressures on the US dollar have been created by the deficit on US domestic and external accounts, and have retarded the recovery of the global economy. Today the cost of money exceeds the factor price of oil, and the market is highly unstable. The devastating costs of carrying surplus capacity are likely to survive through the 1980s.     

The peak of oil production—Timings and market recognition

Energy is essential for present societies. In particular, transportation systems depend on petroleum-based fuels. That world oil production is set to pass a peak is now a reasonably accepted concept, although its date is far from consensual. In this work, we analyze the true expectations of the oil market participants about the future availability of this fundamental energy source. We study the evolution through time of the curves of crude oil futures prices, and we conclude that the market participants, among them the crude oil producers, already expect a near-term peak of oil production. This agrees with many technical predictions for the date of peak production, including our own, that point to peak dates around the end of the present decade. If this scenario is confirmed, it can cause serious social and economical problems because societies will have little time to perform the necessary adjustments.     

The integration of China into the world crude oil market since 1998

The integration of China into the world oil market is an important issue for at least two reasons. First, the influence of the country on the world oil market is dependent on the level of the integration. Second, integration into the world oil market means that China is opening itself up to potential disturbances in the world market and this leads to significant energy security concerns for the country. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether or not China is an integral part of the world oil market. By reviewing the relevant trade and pricing policies of the Chinese government as well as the behavior of the Chinese national oil companies, we find that China is actively engaging itself in the world oil market. Our time-series results show that the Chinese oil price is cointegrated with the major oil prices in the world and a high degree of co-movement between the prices is found. Causality between the price pairs is found to be bi-directional in most cases. The empirical results suggest that China is now an integral part of the world oil market.     

U.S. oil dependence 2014: Is energy independence in sight?

The importance of reducing U.S. oil dependence may have changed in light of developments in the world oil market over the past two decades. Since 2005, increased domestic production and decreased oil use have cut U.S. import dependence in half. The direct costs of oil dependence to the U.S. economy are estimated under four U.S. Energy Information Administration Scenarios to 2040. The key premises of the analysis are that the primary oil market failure is the use of market power by OPEC and that U.S. economic vulnerability is a result of the quantity of oil consumed, the lack of readily available, economical substitutes and the quantity of oil imported. Monte Carlo simulations of future oil market conditions indicate that the costs of U.S. oil dependence are likely to increase in constant dollars but decrease relative to U.S. gross domestic product unless oil resources are larger than estimated by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Reducing oil dependence therefore remains a valuable goal for U.S. energy policy and an important co-benefit of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.     

The shift in US oil demand and its impact on OPEC's market share

Tremendous political pressure is being exerted on the US government by different political parties to diversify its sources of foreign oil supplies by switching from the reliance on OPEC's oil to that originating from non-OPEC nations. Without a doubt, such a shift would adversely impact the market share of some OPEC members, particularly Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Nigeria. These countries should therefore consider seriously the negative impact of this scenario and consequently formulate individual or joint production policies aiming at protecting their oil market share. To help OPEC achieve this objective, there is a need to estimate the demand function of US oil imports. This paper proffers an estimate of such a function, taking into account, among other variables, the impact of US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).     

Sugar rush: Prospects for a global ethanol market

In 2005, the major economies of the world, including the G8 and 5 developing nations (Mexico, India, Brazil, China, and South Africa), along with the United Nations, the International Energy Agency, and the European Union launched the Global Bioenergy Partnership to discuss ways to promote the sustained use and production of biofuels around the globe, reflecting growing concerns for finding economically viable substitutes for petroleum. This paper examines whether and if a vibrant global market in biofuels based on sugarcane-based ethanol is economically feasible. The paper finds that while there is already international trading in biofuels, it is highly limited compared with its potential. In the current climate of accelerating fossil fuel prices, biofuels represent an increasingly attractive displacement for some of our fossil fuel addiction. Not only do they substitute for petrol, but they also produce lower emissions. The paper finds that sugarcane ethanol could make an important contribution to substituting for a portion of petroleum and also offer potential benefits for international development.     

Modelling the world oil market: Assessment of a quarterly econometric model

This paper describes a structural econometric model of the world oil market that can be used to analyse oil market developments and risks. Oil demand depends on domestic economic activity and the real price of oil. Oil supply for non-OPEC producers, based on competitive behaviours, is constrained by geological and institutional conditions. Oil prices are determined by a “price rule” that includes market conditions and OPEC behaviour. Policy simulations indicate that oil demand and non-OPEC supply are rather inelastic to changes in price, while OPEC decisions about quota and capacity utilisation have a significant, immediate impact on oil prices.     

Is the spot market for oil products efficient?: Some rotterdam evidence

This paper presents evidence relating to the efficiency of the Rotterdam market for oil products. Analysis of daily, weekly and monthly price changes for gas oil during the period 1978–1983 results in the rejection of the efficiency hypothesis, ie relative price changes have been serially dependent. On the basis of this observation, a very simple trading rule is developed. This rule is tested out, simulating market transactions during the first two quarters of 1984. The financial outcome of this game turns out to be rather rewarding.     

Investigating price clustering in the oil futures market

Price clustering can be a source of market inefficiency. It follows that searching for price clustering in markets have gone beyond share prices into real estate, interest rate, and exchange rate markets. In this paper, we extend this line of research to oil futures markets. In particular, we consider five different forms of oil futures contracts and test for evidence of price clustering. Our results reveal strong presence of price clustering in the oil futures market. This finding implies that price clustering can potentially be a source of oil market inefficiency, which can influence trading strategies.