陶瓷地理标志产品的放射性评估与风险监测建议

陶瓷地理标志产品的放射性主要来源是陶瓷工业中的矿物原材料,其大多来自天然矿物,主要为含钾矿物,如长石、云母、石英等。本文针对20种陶瓷地理标志产品中的镭-226、钍-232、钾-40的放射性核素数据进行分析,并提出风险监控建议。     

消费品使用说明第6部分:家具

1范围 GB5296的本部分规定了编制家具使用说明的基本要求、方法和应包括的内容。 本部分适用于编制各类家具使用说明。 2规范性引用文件     

The exposure assessment for veterinary medicinal products

The proposed methodology for the assessment of the environmental risks of the use of veterinary medicinal products is the hazard quotient approach. This article will elaborate on the exposure assessment with exposure models adapted to the Dutch agricultural situation. Based on the exposure assessment, decisions are made on the acceptability of the environmental risk of a product. Therefore, regulatory authorities have to be careful in choosing exposure scenarios. It will be shown that simple alterations of general models with an eye for common agricultural practice change predicted exposure concentrations by a factor of 2-40. In addition, the current proposals for effect assessment are too diverse, and the triggers that lead to further extensive testing are either useless, or at the least inconsistent with each other. An interdisciplinary approach using knowledge of veterinary and agricultural practice, risk management, and environmental toxicology and chemistry, is needed to determine relevant exposure scenarios.     

Waterborne rotavirus: A risk assessment

A risk assessment approach was used to estimate the public health impacts from exposure to human rotavirus in drinking and recreational waters. Rotavirus is the major cause of viral gastroenteritis worldwide and several waterborne outbreaks have been documented. This results in a significant economic impact on society in terms of direct medical costs, loss of work, quality of life and mortality. The virus is common in domestic wastewater and polluted surface waters. Dose-response data in human adult volunteers indicate that it is the most infective of all the enteric viruses, and this was used to develop a microbial risk assessment model to estimate daily and yearly risks of infection, morbidity and mortality for exposure via drinking and recreational waters using existing information on the occurrence of rotavirus. The disease is most severe for the very young, the elderly, and the immunocompromised. Case fatality rates in the United States are 0.01% in the general population, 1% in the elderly, and up to 50% in the immunocompromised. Analysis indicates that significant risks of disease (5 × 10⁻¹−2.45 × 10⁻³) could result for drinking and recreational waters in which rotavirus has been detected. The major limitation in assessing the risks of waterborne rotaviral infections at present is the lack of data on its occurrence in water and the potential for human exposure.     

Data base for risk assessment

Health risk assessment associated with exposure to toxic chemicals is a process consisting of three basic elements: (i) hazard identification, (ii) risk estimation, and (iii) risk evaluation. Each of these elements provides a data base for making decisions regarding the control of chemical hazards for the prevention of health risk. Each of these elements involves various degrees of uncertainty, yet credibility of the management of risk requires that risk assessment be made with the highest possible accuracy and degree of confidence.     

A proposal for construction project risk assessment using fuzzy logic

The construction industry is plagued by risk and often has suffered poor performance as a result. There are a number of risk management techniques available to help alleviate this, but usually these are based on operational research techniques developed in the 1960s, and for the most part have failed to meet the needs of project managers. In this paper, a hierarchical risk breakdown structure representation is used to develop a formal model for qualitative risk assessment. A common language for describing risks is presented which includes terms for quantifying likelihoods and impacts so as to achieve consistent quantification. The relationships between risk factors, risks and their consequences are represented on cause and effect diagrams. These diagrams and the concepts of fuzzy association and fuzzy composition are applied to identify relationships between risk sources and the consequences for project performance measures. A methodology for evaluating the risk exposure, considering the consequences in terms of time, cost, quality, and safety performance measures of a project based on fuzzy estimates of the risk components is presented.     

Learning from risks: A tool for post-project risk assessment

Risk management (RM) comprises of risk identification, risk analysis, response planning, monitoring and action planning tasks that are carried out throughout the life cycle of a project in order to ensure that project objectives are met. Although the methodological aspects of RM are well-defined, the philosophical background is rather vague. In this paper, a learning-based approach is proposed. In order to implement this approach in practice, a tool has been developed to facilitate construction of a lessons learned database that contains risk-related information and risk assessment throughout the life cycle of a project. The tool is tested on a real construction project. The case study findings demonstrate that it can be used for storing as well as updating risk-related information and finally, carrying out a post-project appraisal. The major weaknesses of the tool are identified as, subjectivity of the risk rating process and unwillingness of people to enter information about reasons of failure.     

A total environmental risk assessment model for international hub airports

This paper presents a multi-criteria decision analysis for environmental risk assessment (ERA) with regard to avoiding and eliminating damages and loss under natural disasters in international airport projects. It starts from an assumption that the strategy of eliminating damages and losses under natural disasters is related to the location selection problem, and it is necessary to use the multi-criteria decision analysis for calculated decision-making support. The paper uses the analytic network process (ANP) to demonstrate one of its utility modes in decision-making support to location selection problems, which aims at an evaluation of different projects from different locations. A set of generic criteria for risk assessment at international projects was put forward to support ANP modelling, and it was due to the consideration of social, technical, economic, environmental and political (STEEP) criteria related to the built, social and natural (BSN) trinity environment of international airport projects. At the end, an experimental case study on three international hub airports in China is given to test the ANP model called ERA.Airport, and it is concluded that ANP can be effectively used for risk assessment in the specific utility mode. The ERA.Airport is a generic multi-criteria decision-making model and can be used across the world for accurate environmental risk assessment for international airports.     

A White House perspective on risk assessment and risk communication

The fear of malign influences in our environment is so widespread today that the general public believes that it is those factors they cannot control that will bring about their early demise. Our goals in government must be to effectively communicate information on environmental risks, and to develop a disciplined way of approaching environmental assessment and regulation so as to reduce those risks.     

Probabilistic risk assessment for evacuees in building fires

A probabilistic risk assessment method for evacuees in building fires is presented with consideration of some deterministic and stochastic factors. The time-dependent event tree technique is used to analyze probable fire scenarios based on operational reliability of fire protection systems. For a fire scenario, the time to untenable conditions is characterized by probability distribution with consideration of some uncertainties of design fire. Moreover, occupant pre-movement time, one of the most important proportions of evacuation time, is characterized by normal distribution to express its uncertainty. Based on calculated results of ASET and RSET for every fire scenarios, the expected number of casualties is obtained when untenable conditions occur. Moreover, according to some fire statistical data, expected risk to life (ERL) is calculated to express the risk severity. Finally, a case study for a supermarket building is presented to express the risk assessment method in detail.     

Trends in risk assessment and risk management

Environmental risk assessment has matured into a powerful analytical tool, which is finding ever-wider applications in the arena of policy making and regulation. However, the principal focus of its development to date has been on the technical challenges of characterising and modelling the environmental behaviour and biological action of chemicals, whereas issues concerning its broader socio-political context have been generally neglected. Problem definition, risk analysis and decision making have, therefore, tended to be dominated by experts and by expert opinion. Fresh insights from the social sciences advocate a pluralistic, inclusive approach, with experts participating alongside other stakeholders in a consensual decision making process. Adoption of this paradigm has far reaching consequences for the form and conduct of risk assessment and risk management.     

北京市火灾风险综合评估指标体系研究

针对北京市火灾的特点,通过对北京市1995~2004年的火灾统计资料的分析,结合我国火灾分类分级及前人的研究成果,建立了北京市火灾风险的多层次评估因素集。运用模糊数学的理论和方法,建立了火灾综合评估指标特征值、隶属函数及权重的确定方法。根据模糊综合评价原理提出了北京市火灾风险的模糊综合评估模型,并应用此模型进行了实例分析。     

A stress ecology framework for comprehensive risk assessment of diffuse pollution

Environmental pollution is traditionally classified as either localized or diffuse. Local pollution comes from a point source that emits a well-defined cocktail of chemicals, distributed in the environment in the form of a gradient around the source. Diffuse pollution comes from many sources, small and large, that cause an erratic distribution of chemicals, interacting with those from other sources into a complex mixture of low to moderate concentrations over a large area. There is no good method for ecological risk assessment of such types of pollution. We argue that effects of diffuse contamination in the field must be analysed in the wider framework of stress ecology. A multivariate approach can be applied to filter effects of contaminants from the many interacting factors at the ecosystem level. Four case studies are discussed (1) functional and structural properties of terrestrial model ecosystems, (2) physiological profiles of microbial communities, (3) detritivores in reedfield litter, and (4) benthic invertebrates in canal sediment. In each of these cases the data were analysed by multivariate statistics and associations between ecological variables and the levels of contamination were established. We argue that the stress ecology framework is an appropriate assessment instrument for discriminating effects of pollution from other anthropogenic disturbances and naturally varying factors.     

A fuzzy approach to construction project risk assessment

The increasing complexity and dynamism of construction projects have imposed substantial uncertainties and subjectivities in the risk analysis process. Most of the real-world risk analysis problems contain a mixture of quantitative and qualitative data; therefore quantitative risk assessment techniques are inadequate for prioritizing risks. This article presents a risk assessment methodology based on the Fuzzy Sets Theory, which is an effective tool to deal with subjective judgement, and on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), which is used to structure a large number of risks. The proposed methodology incorporates knowledge and experience acquired from many experts, since they carry out the risks identification and their structuring, and also the subjective judgements of the parameters which are considered to assess the overall risk factor: risk impact, risk probability and risk discrimination. All of these factors are expressed by qualitative scales which are defined by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers to capture the vagueness in the linguistic variables. The most notable differences with other fuzzy risk assessment methods are the use of an algorithm to handle the inconsistencies in the fuzzy preference relation when pair-wise comparison judgements are necessary, and the use of trapezoidal fuzzy numbers until the defuzzification step. An illustrative example on risk assessment of a rehabilitation project of a building is used to demonstrate the proposed methodology.     

Validation of the exposure assessment for veterinary medicinal products

Under the EU Directive 2004/28/EC, an environmental risk assessment of new veterinary medicinal products is required. Given the nature of risk assessment for new applications, there is a need to model exposure concentrations. Critical evaluations are essential to ensure that the use of models by regulators does not result in the propagation of misleading information. The empirical validations of soil exposure models, previously discussed in this journal, indicate that it is impossible to analyse the contribution of every model parameter to the variability in the predictions. In particular, the prediction of the slurry concentration is challenged by uncertainties concerning dilution, mixing and dissipation of residues. Surface water and groundwater models generated highly deviating results compared to the field results, questioning the usefulness of the available screening models. Animal husbandry, slurry handling and environmental conditions throughout Europe are considered in order to define realistic worst case scenarios, to be used in conjunction with distribution models for the environmental risk assessment of veterinary medicinal products at registration. Given the variability in manure management practice throughout Europe, a deterministic approach for the manure-to-soil model was selected. Both worst case and best case scenario were developed. Several modelling assumptions applied in the surface water exposure model for fish nursery effluent were validated against newly available data. Since the available data give no proof that a settling tank contributes to the removal of pesticides from waste water, it is recommended for risk assessment purposes to consider the contribution of the settling tank to removal of pesticides and medicines to be negligible. Surface water dilution factors may be considered to be rather small, a factor of 2, for low flow situations.     

A fuzzy inference-based approach for building damage risk assessment on mining terrains

Reliable evaluation of risk of building damage due to the mining impact is problematic owing to the magnitude, diversity and uncertainty of factors that may affect the surface, as well as the subjective character of methods of assessing resistance of the objects. The uncertainty and ambiguity elements in the decision process can be accounted for by fuzzy inference method. This tool employed together with GIS enabled one to integrate such diverse factors affecting damage risk as surface deformations and resistance of building objects, taking into account uncertainty of data and subjectivity of evaluation of experts making the assessment.The results of investigations of the damage risk model based on fuzzy inference are presented in the paper. The successive stages of working out a fuzzy model are presented, the most important stages indicated and the choice of specific elements of the model justified. The advantages of fuzzification are presented on the example of building data subjected to the mining impact in one of the Polish mining areas.     

纯净水水质及生产企业风险评价系统

本文把层次分析法和灰色分析方法结合起来用于纯净水水质风险评价,用最差判别法对纯净水生产企业进行评价,并用Visual Basic计算机语言开发设计了一个水质风险评价系统。结果显示所给组合方法不仅可以判断纯净水是否符合标准,还可以评估符合标准的纯净水存在的潜在风险,最差方法在生产企业水质风险评价过程中具有一定实用性。所构建的纯净水水质风险评价系统,可以为纯净水水质监管部门提供方便的服务,自动生成的图形分析结果可以为监管部门提供直观、有效的数据。     

复杂装备型号论证项目风险评估模型研究

对复杂装备型号论证项目中存在的各种风险做出了系统深入的分析,建立了科学风险评估模型,从而利于降低论证风险,提高复杂装备型号论证项目的成功率。     

城市区域火灾风险评估方法综述

结合火灾风险评估的定义,对城市区域火灾风险评估的概念及发展概况做出明确说明。针对区域火灾风险评估问题,提出了将评估方法划分为基于指标的传统评估法和基于机器学习的现代评估法两大类,分别对两类方法的评估流程进行概括总结并根据评估流程对常用的传统评估方法进行分类归纳。结合目前区域火灾风险评估的国内外现状,对比总结了两类评估方法的特点和适用范围,并展望了未来的研究方向。     

隧洞岩爆风险评估应用研究

结合岩爆发生的条件及影响因素,从岩性、地质构造、隧洞埋深等方面,对岩爆发生的风险程度进行了综合评估,并在准确的风险评估基础上,采取合理的施工措施有效防治岩爆的发生,进而保障施工人员生命安全,减少设备财产损失。