Using conformation traits to improve reliability of genetic evaluation for herd life based on survival analysis

Genetic evaluation for herd life based on survival analysis utilizes information available on all animals, dead (uncensored) and alive (censored), but the reliability of bulls' breeding values depends only on the number of uncensored daughters. Therefore, information on correlated conformation traits scored on daughters during their first lactation may be essential for the evaluation of young bulls with mostly censored daughters. Currently available programs for genetic evaluation based on survival analysis cannot combine indirect information on conformation traits with direct information on herd life, nor can they estimate genetic covariances between herd life and conformation traits. In this study, an alternative approach has been developed and tested using data on Swiss Simmental and Red & White cattle. Genetic covariances were approximated using breeding values for herd life from a survival analysis and BLUP breeding values for 26 linear conformation traits from a separate multivariate analysis. An index combining direct breeding values for herd life and indirect breeding values obtained from conformation traits was constructed. The relative weighting of both information sources varied depending on the amount of available information. The maximum reliability based only on conformation traits was 0.64. Except for old bulls with >100 uncensored daughters, the combined reliability was always higher than the direct reliability from survival analysis.     

Impact of calving ease on functional longevity and herd amortization costs in Basque Holsteins using survival analysis

The aim of this study was to analyze the impact of calving ease (CE) on functional longevity of Basque Holsteins, using a Weibull proportional hazards model. The data considered for the analysis were 53,353 calving records from 25,810 Holstein cows distributed across 781 herds and sired by 746 bulls. The effects included in the statistical model were age at first calving, stage of lactation, interaction between year and season of calving, 305-d adjusted milk yield, CE, herd, and sire. Calving ease was considered as a time-dependent covariate and, as was the case for the rest of covariates included in the model, had a significant effect on functional longevity. Calvings needing assistance or surgery increased culling risk by 18%, when compared with unassisted calvings. The effect of CE on length of productive life in primiparous and multiparous cows was also investigated. A second analysis was performed replacing the CE effect with the interaction between parity and CE to evaluate the effect of CE in primiparous and multiparous cows. An increase in calving difficulty had a greater impact on culling during first lactations than in subsequent ones. Therefore, difficult calvings, mainly at first parities, had a high impact on herd amortization costs, increasing them by 10% in relation to easy calvings. Therefore, calving difficulty should be avoided as much as possible, especially in primiparous cows, to avoid reduction of profitability.     

Analysis of the relationship between type traits and functional survival in US Holstein cattle using a Weibull proportional hazards model

Survival analysis with a Weibull proportional hazards model was used to evaluate the effects of 15 linear type traits, 5 composite traits, and final score on the functional longevity of US Holstein cows. Culling data and type classification scores (measured in first lactation) from 891,524 cows with first calving from 1993 to 2000 were used. The data were divided into 9 geographical regions to determine whether the relationship between type traits and longevity differed according to climate or management system. Functional survival was defined as the number of days from first calving until culling or censoring, after correction for 305-d mature equivalent combined fat and protein yield. The Weibull model included time-dependent effects of herd-year-season, parity-stage of lactation, and within herd-year quintile ranking for combined fat and protein yield (nested within biennium), as well as time-independent effects of age at first calving and type classification score (type traits were analyzed one at a time). Type classification scores were rounded to the nearest 5 points, and the impact of each type trait on functional survival in each region was evaluated. Mean failure time ranged from 694 d in the South to 758 d in the North East. Risk of culling differed by region for several linear type traits, and differences were greatest for regions that were most dissimilar in climate and herd management (e.g., South East, East North Central, and West). Udder depth, fore udder attachment, udder cleft, and rear legs side view were consistently associated with functional longevity, regardless of region, but, the importance of some secondary traits, such as stature or dairy form, differed by region. The survival model applied in this study easily described both linear and nonlinear relationships between type traits and longevity while accounting for important time-dependent and time-independent explanatory variables.     

Genetic analysis of herd life in Canadian dairy cattle on a lactation basis using a Weibull proportional hazards model

The objectives of this study were to identify the most important factors that influence functional survival and to estimate the genetic parameters of functional survival for Canadian dairy cattle. Data were obtained from lactation records extracted for the May 2002 genetic evaluation of Holstein, Jersey, and Ayrshire breeds that calved between July 1, 1985 and April 5, 2002. Analysis was performed using a Weibull proportional hazard model, and the baseline hazard function was defined on a lactation basis instead of the traditional analysis of the whole length of life. The statistical model included the effects of stage of lactation; season of production; the annual change in herd size; type of milk recording supervision; age at first calving; effects of milk, fat, and protein yields calculated within herd-year-parity deviations; and the random effects of herd-year-season of calving and sire. All effects fitted in the model had a significant effect on functional survival of cows in all breeds. Milk yield was by far the most important factor influencing survival, and the hazard increased as the milk production of the cows decreased. The hazard also increased as the fat content increased compared with the average group. Heifers that were older at calving were at higher risk of being culled, and expanding herds were at lower risk of being culled compared with stable herds. More culling was found in unsupervised herds than in supervised herds. The heritability values obtained were 0.14, 0.10, and 0.09 for Holstein, Jersey, and Ayrshire, respectively. Rank correlation between estimated breeding values (EBV) obtained from the current national genetic evaluation of direct herd life and the survival kit used in this study ranged from 0.65 to 0.87, depending on the number of daughters per sire. Estimated genetic trend obtained using the survival kit was overestimated.     

Multiple-trait genomic evaluation of linear type traits using genomic and phenotypic data in US Holsteins

Currently, the USDA uses a single-trait (ST) model with several intermediate steps to obtain genomic evaluations for US Holsteins. In this study, genomic evaluations for 18 linear type traits were obtained with a multiple-trait (MT) model using a unified single-step procedure. The phenotypic type data on up to 18 traits were available for 4,813,726 Holsteins, and single nucleotide polymorphism markers from the Illumina BovineSNP50 genotyping Beadchip (Illumina Inc., San Diego, CA) were available on 17,293 bulls. Genomic predictions were computed with several genomic relationship matrices (G) that assumed different allele frequencies: equal, base, current, and current scaled. Computations were carried out with ST and MT models. Procedures were compared by coefficients of determination (R²) and regression of 2004 prediction of bulls with no daughters in 2004 on daughter deviations of those bulls in 2009. Predictions for 2004 also included parent averages without the use of genomic information. The R² for parent averages ranged from 10 to 34% for ST models and from 12 to 35% for MT models. The average R² for all G were 34 and 37% for ST and MT models, respectively. All of the regression coefficients were <1.0, indicating that estimated breeding values in 2009 of 1,307 genotyped young bulls’ parents tended to be biased. The average regression coefficients ranged from 0.74 to 0.79 and from 0.75 to 0.80 for ST and MT models, respectively. When the weight for the inverse of the numerator relationship matrix (A⁻¹) for genotyped animals was reduced from 1 to 0.7, R² remained almost identical while the regression coefficients increased by 0.11-0.26 and 0.12-0.23 for ST and MT models, respectively. The ST models required about 5 s per iteration, whereas MT models required 3 (6) min per iteration for the regular (genomic) model. The MT single-step approach is feasible for 18 linear type traits in US Holstein cattle. Accuracy for genomic evaluation increases when switching ST models to MT models. Inflation of genomic evaluations for young bulls could be reduced by choosing a small weight for the A⁻¹ for genotyped bulls.     

Genetic analysis of herd life in Quebec Holsteins using Weibull models

Survival analysis methodologies were used to study herd life in Canadian Holstein cows. Herd life was defined as true herd life or the length of time between first calving and censoring. True herd life adjusted for 305-d milk production was defined as functional herd life. Lifetime record (censored or completed) were from 331,147 Holstein cows registered in the Programme d'Analyse des Troupeaux Laitiers du Québec (PATLQ) that calved for the first time between March 1, 1981 and March 31, 1995. The Weibull (proportional hazards) model used to analyze true herd life and functional herd life contained a Weibull baseline hazard function and the time-dependent effects of year of first calving, lactation number by stage of lactation, annual change in herd size and herd-year (random), and the time-independent effects of the milk recording option (supervised or not) and age at first calving. The model for functional herd life included also the time-dependent effect of herd-year-parity class of 305-d milk production. Genetic differences between sires with regard to the hazard function of their daughters was clearly demonstrated. The hazard rate followed a different pattern in later lactations, particularly in the first 240 d in milk. Older age at first calving was found to be associated with higher risks of culling. Changes in herd size had a small impact on the hazard function of animals. The hazard decreased as production of the cow increased. Heritability in the log scale was 0.09 for true herd life and 0.08 for functional herd life, but when heritability was expressed on the original scale, the estimates for the two traits were 0.19 and 0.15, respectively. The difference in the median survival between a bull with an estimated transmitting ability of 0.6 and another bull with an estimated transmitting ability of 1.3 was 690 d or 1.7 lactations. Rank correlations between the official estimated transmitting abilities for true herd life and functional herd life and those obtained in this study were 0.62 and 0.66, respectively.     

Survival rates and productive herd life of dairy cattle in the United States

Survival rates and productive herd life were examined for 13.8 million US dairy cows that calved from January 1, 1980, through March 2, 2005. Cows that left the herd for dairy purposes or were from herds that discontinued Dairy Herd Improvement testing were excluded from any calculations to prevent underestimation of population longevity. Mean lactation length for cows without subsequently recorded lactations ranged from 205 to 235 d across breed-parity subsets and were 4 to 29 d longer for parities 2 through 7 than for parity 1. Mean survival rates were 73% to parity 2; 50% to parity 3; 32% to parity 4; and 19, 10, 5, and 2% to parities 5 through 8, respectively. The mean number of parities for Holsteins declined from 3.2 for those first calving in 1980 to 2.8 for those first calving in 1994. Mean numbers of parities for other breeds first calving in 1994 were 2.9 for Ayrshires and Brown Swiss, 2.4 for Guernseys, and 3.2 for Jerseys. Breed means for productive herd life (through parity 8) ranged from 28 to 36 mo. All regressions of mean number of parities or mean productive herd life on year were negative. The trend for decline of many of those indicators of longevity slowed or ended after the early 1990s. Between 31 (Jersey) and 39% (Guernsey) of herds were made up of first-calf heifers.     

Indirect prediction of herd life in Guernsey dairy cattle

Production and type data were used to investigate the relationships of these traits with herd life data in US Guernsey cows that calved from 1985 through 1990. Two definitions of herd life were used: actual days from birth to disposal (true herd life) and herd life adjusted for milk production (functional herd life). Genetic parameters were calculated with data from cows that had an opportunity to reach 84 mo of age (n = 18,725). Linear type traits were preadjusted for stage of lactation and age at classification. True herd life was preadjusted for age at first calving and for functional herd life, within herd-year quartile ranking for milk yield. The (co)variance components for true and functional herd life, milk, fat, protein, and 15 linear type traits were estimated with multiple-trait REML in an animal model. Heritability estimates for true and functional herd life were 0.12 for both traits. Estimated genetic correlations of herd life with body size traits were from -0.14 to -0.29, with feet and leg traits were from -0.10 to 0.06, and with udder traits were from -0.09 to 0.24. These correlation parameters were used for indirect prediction of herd life from available production and type information in Guernseys.     

Quantitative trait loci mapping of functional traits in the German Holstein cattle population

A whole-genome scan to detect quantitative trait loci (QTL) for functional traits was performed in the German Holstein cattle population. For this purpose, 263 genetic markers across all autosomes and the pseudoautosomal region of the sex chromosomes were genotyped in 16 granddaughter-design families with 872 sons. The traits investigated were deregressed breedingvalues for maternal and direct effects on dystocia (DYSm, DYSd) and stillbirth (STIm, STId) as well as maternal and paternal effects on nonreturn rates of 90 d (NR90m, NR90p). Furthermore, deregressed breeding values for functional herd life (FHL) and daughter yield deviation for somatic cell count (SCC) were investigated. Weighted multimarker regression analyses across families and permutation tests were applied for the detection of QTL and the calculation of statistical significance. A ten percent genomewise significant QTL was localized for DYSm on chromosome 8 and for SCC on chromosome 18. A further 24 putative QTL exceeding the 5% chromosomewise threshold were detected. On chromosomes 7, 8, 10, 18, and X/Yps, coincidence of QTL for several traits was observed. Our results suggest that loci with influence on udder health may also contribute to genetic variance of longevity. Prior to implementation of these QTL in marker assisted selection programs for functional traits, information about direct and correlated effects of these QTL as well as fine mapping of their chromosomal positions is required.     

Application of single-step single nucleotide polymorphism best linear unbiased predictor model with unknown-parent groups for type traits in Japanese Holsteins

The objectives of this study were to investigate the computational performance and the predictive ability and bias of a single-step SNP BLUP model (ssSNPBLUP) in genotyped young animals with unknown-parent groups (UPG) for type traits, using national genetic evaluation data from the Japanese Holstein population. The phenotype, genotype, and pedigree data were the same as those used in a national genetic evaluation of linear type traits classified between April 1984 and December 2020. In the current study, 2 data sets were prepared: the full data set containing all entries up to December 2020 and a truncated data set ending with December 2016. Genotyped animals were classified into 3 types: sires with classified daughters (S), cows with records (C), and young animals (Y). The computing performance and prediction accuracy of ssSNPBLUP were compared for the following 3 groups of genotyped animals: sires with classified daughters and young animals (SY); cows with records and young animals (CY); and sires with classified daughters, cows with records, and young animals (SCY). In addition, we tested 3 parameters of residual polygenic variance in ssSNPBLUP (0.1, 0.2, or 0.3). Daughter yield deviations (DYD) for the validation bulls and phenotypes adjusted for all fixed effects and random effects other than animal and residual (Y_adj) for the validation cows were obtained using the full data set from the pedigree-based BLUP model. The regression coefficients of DYD for bulls (or Y_adj for cows) on the genomic estimated breeding value (GEBV) using the truncated data set were used to measure the inflation of the predictions of young animals. The coefficient of determination of DYD on GEBV was used to measure the predictive ability of the predictions for the validation bulls. The reliability of the predictions for the validation cows was calculated as the square of the correlation between Y_adj and GEBV divided by heritability. The predictive ability was highest in the SCY group and lowest in the CY group. However, minimal difference was found in predictive abilities with or without UPG models using different parameters of residual polygenic variance. The regression coefficients approached 1.0 as the parameter of residual polygenic variance increased, but regression coefficients were mostly similar regardless of the use of UPG across the groups of genotyped animals. The ssSNPBLUP model, including UPG, was demonstrated as feasible for implementation in the national evaluation of type traits in Japanese Holsteins.     

Genetic and environmental analysis of female calf survival in the Israel Holstein cattle population

The objectives were to estimate the effects of various environmental factors on female calf survival of Israeli Holsteins, to estimate the economic value of calf survival under Israeli conditions, to estimate the genetic and environmental variance components for calf and cow survival using the individual animal model, to perform GWAS analyses of survival to first calving and herd life after first calving, to estimate the genetic and environmental trends for calf survival since 1985, to estimate genetic correlations of calf survival with the traits included in the current Israeli breeding index, and to estimate the consequences of inclusion of calf survival in the national selection index. Mean calf survival rate of Israeli Holsteins from 2001 through 2008 was 0.85, and the mean economic value of survival to first calving was $526. Birth month, gestation length, dystocia, and twin birth significantly affected calf survival rate. Dystocia and twin birth each reduced survival rate by 0.034. Survival rate was highest for calves born in October and lowest for calves born in February. The difference between these months was 3.4%. Maximum survival was at a gestation length of 276 d, the mean gestation length for this population. Survival rate was reduced to 0.76 for calves born after a gestation length of 260 d. The individual animal model was applied for all the genetic analyses. Heritability for calf survival to first calving, as estimated by REML, was 0.009, whereas heritability of herd life from first calving was 0.15. The complete data set for genetic analysis of survival to first calving included 1,235,815 calves born between 1985 and 2017. Annual genetic and phenotypic trends for calf survival were 0.019 and 0.015%, respectively. Correlations of transmitting abilities of 226 sires born since 2010 for calf survival with the traits included in the Israeli breeding index were significant only for the maternal effects of dystocia and stillbirth. The GWAS analysis was based on the transmitting abilities of 1,493 bulls with genotypes and reliabilities >0.5 for calf survival and cow herd life. There were 7 single nucleotide polymorphisms with coefficients of determination >0.03 for calf survival and 12 single nucleotide polymorphisms with coefficients of determination >0.05 for cow survival. There was no overlap between the genome-wide significant markers for the GWAS analyses of calf survival and cow herd life. This corresponds to the conclusion from the REML results and the low correlations between the sire evaluations that the genetic control of the 2 traits are not similar. Inclusion of calf survival in the Israeli breeding would result in a 0.5% increase in calf survival over 10 yr but reduce progress for the other traits by 8%.     

Selection of bull dams for production and functional traits in an open nucleus herd

The aim of this study was to compare different scenarios for bull dam selection in a nucleus herd. A deterministic simulation study using selection index methodology was undertaken. In the scenarios studied, differing amounts of information on functional traits were available when bull dams were selected, and the resulting genetic responses in these traits were compared. Field-recorded fertility traits used in the scenarios were available as progeny test results of artificial insemination bulls: these included pregnant at first insemination (PFI), interval between calving and first insemination (CFI), and cases of reproductive disorders (RD). Similarly, field-recorded cases of clinical mastitis (CM), lactation somatic cell score (LSCS), and protein yield (PY) were included for pedigree selection. In the scenarios, heat intensity score and progesterone levels were treated as new indicator traits of fertility recorded in the nucleus herd. Traits CFI and LSCS were assumed to be better recorded with higher heritability in the nucleus herd than in ordinary herds. Economic weights currently used in Nordic Cattle Genetic Evaluation (NAV) were adapted and used in the scenarios. The results showed that these weights, if used in multiple trait genetic evaluation, would lead to undesirable genetic changes in functional traits for the bull dam selection path in a nucleus environment. More frequent recording of additional traits failed to improve selection for functional traits, as did more frequent recording of ordinary traits. Restriction index methodology was used to derive the bull dam total weights that gave no unfavorable response (i.e., zero genetic change) in traits PFI, CFI, and CM. When summarized over lactations, the new bull dam total weights, when additional records from nucleus were used, had to be 12 to 23 times higher for fertility, and 3 times higher for mastitis, than the presently used NAV weights, if these traits were to remain unchanged through the bull dam selection path. Thus, nucleus herd selection of bull dams is questionable for low heritability traits that are already recorded in the field.     

Prediction of longevity breeding values for US Holstein sires using survival analysis methodology

Breeding values of Holstein sires for daughter longevity in each of 9 geographical regions of the United States were predicted using a Weibull proportional hazards model. Longevity (also commonly referred to as herd life or length of productive life) was defined as the number of days from first calving until culling or censoring. Records from 2,322,389 Holstein cows with first calving from 1990 to 2000 were used. In addition to the sire's additive genetic merit, our failure time model included time-dependent effects of herd-year-season of calving, parity-stage of lactation, and within-herd-year quintiles for mature equivalent fat plus protein yield, as well as the time-independent effect of age at first calving. Sire variances and parameters of the Weibull distribution were estimated separately for each region. The relative risk of culling for daughters of each individual sire was expressed relative to that of daughters of an average sire (within a specific region). Predicted breeding values for functional longevity, expressed as relative risk ratios, ranged from 0.7 to 1.3. Sizable differences were observed between geographical regions in sire rankings, as well as estimated sire variances and gamma parameters (of the distribution of herd-year-season effects), suggesting that a single national ranking may not be appropriate for every region. Two random samples of herds were selected from the full national data set; these contained 375,086 records and 256,751 records, respectively. Predicted transmitting abilities (PTA) of sires for daughter longevity were calculated using the Weibull proportional hazards (sire) model described previously but without the correction for milk production. These were compared with predictions from a linear (animal) model, as currently used for routine genetic evaluation of length of productive life in the United States. Logistic regression of daughters' stayability to 36, 48, 60, 72, or 84 mo of life (among animals that had opportunity to stay that long) on sires' PTA indicated that the proportional hazards model yielded more accurate predictions of daughter longevity than the linear animal model, even though the latter relied on denser pedigree information.     

Analysis of the relationship between type traits, inbreeding, and functional survival in Jersey cattle using a Weibull proportional hazards model

A Weibull proportional hazards model was used to analyze the effects of 13 linear type traits, final score, and inbreeding on the functional survival of 268,008 US Jersey cows in 2416 herds with first calving from 1981 to 2000. Functional survival was defined as the number of days from first calving until involuntary culling or censoring. The statistical model included the time-dependent effects of herd-year-season of calving, parity by stage of lactation interaction, and within-herd-year quintile for mature equivalent milk yield, as well as the time-independent effects of inbreeding, age at first calving, and linear type traits or final score (analyzed one at a time). Each type trait was divided into 10 classes, and the relative risk of involuntary culling was calculated for animals in each class after accounting for the aforementioned management factors. Type traits with the greatest contribution to the likelihood function were udder depth, fore udder attachment, front teat placement, and udder support. Cows with low scores for these traits had a risk of culling that was 1.3 to 1.8 times that of cows with intermediate scores. Cows with high scores for udder depth and udder support had a risk of culling only 0.7 to 0.85 as great as that of cows with intermediate scores. Intermediate scores were desirable for rear leg set, dairy form, and strength, but stature, rump angle, and rump width had negligible effects on survival. Cows with low final scores had a risk of culling that was 1.35 times that of cows with intermediate scores, whereas cows with high final scores had a risk of culling that was 0.8 times that of cows with intermediate scores. Animals with inbreeding coefficients greater than 10% had a slightly higher risk of culling than animals with inbreeding coefficients less than 5%.     

Relationship of body weight at first calving with milk yield and herd life

The objectives of this study were to investigate the association of body weight (BW) at first calving (BWFC) and maturity rate (MR; BWFC as a percentage of mature BW) with first-lactation 305-d milk yield (FLMY), milk yield (MY) in the 24 mo following first calving (24MMY), herd life, and BW change (BWC) through the first month of lactation in Holstein heifers. We retrieved daily milk production records and daily BW records from AfiFarm (S. A. E. Afikim, Kibbutz Afikim, Israel). The data set included daily records for 1,110 Holstein cows from The Pennsylvania State University (n = 435,002 records) and 1,229 Holstein cows from University of Florida (n = 462,013 records) that calved from 2001 to 2016. Body weight at first calving was defined as mean BW from 5 to 10 d in milk of the first lactation, whereas BWC represented change from BWFC to average BW from 30 to 40 d in milk. First-lactation 305-d MY and 24MMY were analyzed with a linear model that included effects of farm-year-season of calving, age at calving, and quintiles of BWFC, MR, or BWC. Body weight change was analyzed with the same model to determine associations with BWFC. Survival analysis was performed to estimate the effect of BWFC on survival. Heifers in the top 60% of BWFC had significantly higher FLMY (10,041 to 10,084 kg) than lighter heifers (9,683 to 9,917 kg), but there was wide variation in every quintile, and no relationship of BWFC and FLMY existed within the top 60%. Relationships between BWFC and 24MMY were not significant. Heifers with higher BWFC or MR lost significantly more BW in early lactation. Although BWFC and MR were significant predictors of FLMY, they accounted for <3% of variation in FLMY or 24MMY, suggesting that BWFC and MR are not primary contributors to variation in MY. Compared with the lightest heifers, the heaviest heifers were 49% more likely to be culled at a given time. These data indicated that, among heifers managed similarly, heavier heifers produced more milk in first lactation than lighter heifers but lost more BW, faced a higher risk of being culled, and did not produce more milk in the long term. Based on our data, heifers that reach between 73 and 77% MR at first calving can produce more milk in their first lactation without sacrificing long-term MY and herd life.     

Effect of somatic cell count level on functional longevity in Valle del Belice dairy sheep assessed using survival analysis

The objectives of this study were to evaluate the effect of somatic cell count (SCC) on functional longevity and to estimate the heritability of functional longevity using survival analysis in Valle del Belice dairy sheep. A total of 4,880 lactations of 2,190 ewes from 11 flocks were used. In this study, SCC was considered as an indication of subclinical mastitis. In case of clinical cases, identified by the technicians at milking time, test-day weights and milk samples of those ewes were not considered. Somatic cells were analyzed as counts, without any transformation, and were grouped in 3 classes based on the observed SCC maximum (mxSCC). The mxSCC classes, expressed as 10³ cells/mL, were classified as 1 if mxSCC ≤ 500, 2 if 500 < mxSCC < 1,000, and 3 if mxSCC ≥ 1,000. An increase in SCC was associated with an increased hazard of being culled. Ewes in the highest class of SCC on a test-day had a 20% higher hazard of being culled than those in the lowest class. Therefore, SCC played a role in culling decisions of Valle del Belice dairy sheep farmers. The heritability estimate for functional longevity was 7% on the logarithmic scale and 11% on the real scale, indicating that selection for this trait is possible in sheep. The flock-year-season effect explained 19% of the variation on the logarithmic scale and 27% of the variation on the real scale.     

Investigation of factors affecting voluntary and involuntary culling in expanding dairy herds in Wisconsin using survival analysis

Trends in the relative risk of voluntary culling of low-producing cows and involuntary culling of high-producing cows were examined in 186 Wisconsin dairy herds that expanded significantly between 1994 and 1998. A Weibull model for survival analysis was applied to data of 72,456 Holstein cows with first calving from 1981 to 2000; this model included a time-independent effect of age at first calving and time-dependent effects of year-season, age-parity, and within herd-year quintile for combined fat + protein yield (by time period). The relative risk of (involuntary) culling of high-producing cows (versus average cows) increased from 0.5 in 1981 to 1989 to 0.68 in 1996 to 2000. Meanwhile, the relative risk of (voluntary) culling of low-producing cows decreased from 4.20 to 2.55 over the same time period. Variables related to facilities, labor, and management were obtained via survey, and the relative risk of culling for high-and low-producing cows after expansion (1996 to 2000) was calculated for different levels of each variable. Herds with fewer cows per employee and a greater percentage of labor supplied by family members tended to have lower risk of involuntary culling of profitable cows. Likewise, high-producing cows in herds with fans, sprinklers, self-locking manger stalls, palpation rails, and maternity pens had a significantly lower risk of culling than cows in herds without such facilities. Herds that used 100% artificial insemination (AI) had lower risk of involuntary culling than non-AI herds or herds with a cleanup bull, but 3x milking and use of a custom heifer grower led to unfavorable trends in involuntary culling. In summary, this study documented the unfavorable trends in voluntary and involuntary culling in expanding herds and quantified the gains producers can expect in cow survival by investing in improvements in facilities, labor, and management.