建筑施工项目PPP风险分配研究

通过对PPP模式与传统项目管理模式的目标控制、合同签订、监督管理、争议处理、约束力以及激励方式等方面的对比分析,归纳总结了PPP模式的三种适用情况.分析了建筑施工项目风险特点,并通过案例实证法对PPP模式的具体应用进行了介绍.     

PPP项目资源和风险分配优化研究 ——基于资源和风险分配的博弈关系

资源分配与优化贯穿PPP项目生命周期,影响到PPP项目风险分配和风险控制效率,进而决定PPP项目的成败。项目实际实施过程中,政府和社会资本都存在转移风险的现象,合理的聚集、分配、优化资源和风险已经成为PPP模式理论及实践的关键问题。在确定PPP项目资源分配主体的基础上,构建资源和风险分配的博弈模型,探讨资源配置优化和风险分配优化的逻辑关系以及其对PPP项目成功的重要作用机理,并以郑州市白庙水厂PPP项目为例进行验证,期望为PPP项目资源和风险分配优化提供参考。     

交通项目PPP模式风险公平分配障碍因素研究

PPP模式在减少财政支出、激发市场活力、完善政府职能等方面具有一定的优势,但在实践过程中暴露出的问题和缺陷也十分突出,特别是风险公平分配面临诸多障碍。首先,基于文献梳理和专家访谈,识别交通项目PPP模式常见的风险因素,设计初步的风险分配方案;其次,分析交通项目PPP模式风险公平分配障碍因素,为后续障碍因素分析奠定基础;最后,使用AHP法对交通项目PPP模式风险公平分配障碍因素分级结果进行评价,并提出具体对策与建议。     

PPP模式下大型体育场馆建设风险承担与分配研究

通过对国内外文献的广泛阅读和分析,列出风险因素清单,并对政府部门与私营部门在大型体育场馆建设中各自应承担的风险进行统计。最后基于风险的分配原则,提出PPP模式下大型体育场馆建设的风险分配框架。     

基础设施PPP项目风险分配研究

结合山东省东营市东营区人民医院外科病房楼建设的PPP项目实例,识别其风险因素为政府层面风险、市场层面风险、项目层面风险、不可抗力风险四个层面。将PPP项目分配的原则归结为项目风险最优分配原则、项目风险与收益对等原则、项目风险上限原则三项基本原则。制定PPP项目分配的流程,并对该医院外科病房楼建设的PPP项目进行了风险初步分配。     

基于风险偏好和公平偏好的 PPP 项目社会资本选择研究

为补充政府部门关于如何选择社会资本方的理论解释,建立了政府部门与社会资本方的 stackelberg 博弈理论模型,分析效益最大化下政府选择何种特征的社会资本对其更有利。结果表明:不论政府方是风险中性还是风险规避,从政府补偿、激励支出及项目初始投资最优来看,风险规避度低、公平偏好度高的社会资本方是其最佳选择,能够实现社会效益的最大化,并针对提高民营企业参与 PPP 项目的积极性提出了管理建议。     

PPP项目风险分配基本框架优化研究

结合PPP政策和PPP项目实际操作经验,分析PPP项目风险分配现有问题,在完善风险承担主体、风险分配相关原则、提出风险分配机制的初步方案的基础上,优化PPP项目风险分配基本框架,供同业参考。     

PPP项目的风险分担模型研究

PPP项目的直接分担主体是公共部门和私人部门。在分析模糊控制系统与人脑决策系统的关联性基础上,建立以模糊控制系统为主体的PPP风险分担决策模型。通过该模型,对风险分担原则进行了具体化,并对决策者的经验和主观判断进行了量化和推理,从而得到风险分担的决策。运用MATLAB工具实现了该模型,并针对某地铁PPP项目进行了问卷调查和风险分担决策研究,为现实中的实际操作提供了一种有效思路。     

基础设施PPP项目的风险分担

基础设施PPP(Public-Private Partnership)项目投资大、时间长、风险高、合同结构相对复杂,项目谈判过程往往旷日持久,很多时候由于在实施过程中无法兑现承诺或发生其他原因而出现争议,以至于实践中只有少量PPP项目能正常运作.其中,很大原因在于公共部门和私营部门之间缺乏公平的定量风险分担标准.本文通过详尽的文献综述,首先归纳风险分担在项目过程中的时点和要点,并总结风险分担对项目资金价值的影响,最后比较分析已有的风险分担准则和不同的风险分担结果,以期为PPP项目风险分担的研究和实际操作提供可参考依据.     

博弈论视角下的PPP项目风险分配研究

公私部门合理的风险分配是PPP项目成功的关键.通过梳理现有相关文献可知,目前针对公私部门在PPP项目各阶段风险分配中的地位对比及风险转移、信息条件、出价次序等方面的研究尚存在不足.基于此,从博弈论视角对上述不足进行探究,设计适用于PPP项目各阶段风险分配的讨价还价博弈模型.该模型不仅能够反映PPP项目整体生命周期及各阶...     

公私合营(PPP)项目市场需求风险分担研究

对PPP项目市场需求风险的影响因素、分担偏好、参与者的管理能力等问题进行探讨,以实例提出PPP项目市场需求风险完全由政府承担、政府与私人投资者共同承担及私人投资者承担的三种模式。在此基础上提出风险分担中政府所应承担的责任,以及市场分担与项目竞争强度的关系等观点,以期为政府后续PPP项目市场需求风险的管理提供参考和借鉴。     

The moderating role of governance environment on the relationship between risk allocation and private investment in PPP markets: Evidence from developing countries

PPPs have become a popular way to supply infrastructure around the world. However, compared with developed countries, most developing countries have failed to attract private investment over the past years. Risk allocation and governance environment (e.g., the extent of public participation, the level of political stability, the quality of public services, the ability of regulations, abiding the law, and the extent of corruption) may be important factors. To test the hypotheses, using about 4560 PPP projects in 138 developing countries from 2002 to 2015, this paper applies the Tobit regression model to investigate the interaction effect of governance environment and risk assumed by private partners on private investment. Results indicate that private partners assume that less risk can attract more private investment, and that a higher level of governance (control of corruption, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, and rule of law) reduces the negative influence of risk assumed by private partners on private investments.     

浅析交通运输布局与布局因素的关系

作为整个国民经济系统布局的一个重要组成部分,交通运输布局合理与否直接影响到整个系统的布局效益好坏．通过分析城市聚集布局、经济系统的布局、政治因素和技术水平等对交通运输布局的影响及交通运输布局变化对聚落空间形态、商业网点布局、农业区位、工业布局和旅游资源的可开发性的影响,阐述了交通运输布局与布局因素之间复杂的互逆作用关系,为将来建立合理综合交通运输布局,实现整个国民经济系统布局的最优效益提供参考．     

公路PPP项目的运营风险与预算管理分析

通过分析风险管理矩阵中公路PPP项目的运营风险与管理风险,详细叙述了预算管理管理在公路PPP项目管理中的作用,分析结果表明,实施PPP模式,可以不断提升企业管理水平、技术水平和服务水平,能够提高运营效率.规范的PPP模式能够降低项目生命周期成本,从而有利于项目整体运营效率的提升.     

Modelling optimal risk allocation in PPP projects using artificial neural networks

This paper aims to establish, train, validate, and test artificial neural network (ANN) models for modelling risk allocation decision-making process in public-private partnership (PPP) projects, mainly drawing upon transaction cost economics. An industry-wide questionnaire survey was conducted to examine the risk allocation practice in PPP projects and collect the data for training the ANN models. The training and evaluation results, when compared with those of using traditional MLR modelling technique, show that the ANN models are satisfactory for modelling risk allocation decision-making process. The empirical evidence further verifies that it is appropriate to utilize transaction cost economics to interpret risk allocation decision-making process. It is recommended that, in addition to partners' risk management mechanism maturity level, decision-makers, both from public and private sectors, should also seriously consider influential factors including partner's risk management routines, partners' cooperation history, partners' risk management commitment, and risk management environmental uncertainty. All these factors influence the formation of optimal risk allocation strategies, either by their individual or interacting effects.     

Perceptions of architectural design and project risk: understanding the architects' role in a PPP project

Southern Cross Station is one of the largest public–private partnership (PPP) projects undertaken in Australia. In this project the architects played a significant role in developing an iconic design which has received international professional design awards and much media attention. In the media the architects' design was perceived as having impacted negatively on capital costs. Given these contradictory perceptions, the aim of this study was to better understand perceptions of the architects' role in relation to project risks arising out of their design. A survey of key project executives working in the PPP consortium responsible for delivering the project was undertaken. The survey was structured by a framework combining the PPP life cycle, project risks and the idea that architectural design can be viewed as a research and development activity rather than simply as a problem‐solving activity. The survey responses point to the fact that the architects mitigated technical and operating risks and their activities had little bearing on the project's substantial write‐downs. This counters media perceptions of the project that the design activities of the architects created more risks than they mitigated.     

Dynamic modeling of the quantitative risk allocation in construction projects

Allocation of construction risks between owners and their contractors has a significant impact on the total construction costs. This research presents an integrated fuzzy-system dynamics approach for quantitative risk allocation. All the factors affecting the risk allocation process are modeled using system dynamics approach. Fuzzy logic is integrated into system dynamics modeling structure to account for the existing uncertainties. The values of different factors that have an uncertain nature are determined by fuzzy numbers. The application of Zadeh's extension principle and interval arithmetic is proposed for the system dynamics to enable the system outcomes to be presented considering uncertainties in the input variables. Using the proposed integrated fuzzy-SD model, the project cost is simulated at different percentages of risk allocation. The optimum percentage of risk allocation is determined as a point in which the project cost is minimized. The performance of the proposed method is assessed by employing the method in a tunneling project.     

基础设施PPP项目内部控制体系设计研究

基于《内部控制基本规范》,结合基础设施PPP项目特点,从内部环境、风险评估、控制活动、监控和信息沟通等五个方面搭建内部控制体系框架并设计运作机制,以期在理论上拓展现有的多侧重于项目合约签订阶段的机制设计,为基础设施PPP项目的顺利实施提供实践参考。