天津市用水结构演变及其影响因素分析

基于2004~2013年天津市农业、工业、生活、生态及总用水量数据,分析了各类型用水量的变化态势及其影响因素,采用信息熵的方法分析了用水结构的演变过程,并通过灰色关联法识别出影响用水结构演变的主要影响因素。结果表明,天津市总用水量呈微增趋势;农业用水量为波浪式下降趋势;以2008年为界,工业用水出现先减少后增加的态势;生活用水和生态用水总体上均呈增加趋势;2004~2013年,天津市用水结构的信息熵和均衡度均于2010年达到峰值,用水结构发展已较为成熟,系统内部处于较为均衡的状态,单一因素的影响力逐渐减弱;经济社会发展因素对用水结构的演变具有较强的影响,其中农村用电量、耕地面积、园林绿地面积、农业总产值、万元工业产值用水量、轻工业产值等10个影响因素与天津市用水结构呈强关联。     

基于不确定性分析的工业需水概率预测模型在南通市工业需水预测中的应用

由于影响工业需水的因素复杂多变,且模型预测中存在较大的不确定性问题,为掌握需水预测结果的有效范围与可靠度,针对南通市工业结构特点,通过南通市历史用水的分析,选择高耗水行业比重、火(核)电行业比重及工业用水重复利用率作为影响因子,基于南通市2001~2009年的工业用水量及各影响因子数据,结合普适似然不确定估计方法(GLUE),建立了基于不确定分析的工业需水概率预测模型,预测了南通市2020年的工业需水量。结果表明,南通市工业需水量在2020年将会达到18.48×108 m3左右,与南通市水资源规划上的工业用水变化趋势一致。     

水效率相关因素的偏最小二乘回归分析

为分析用水效率的影响因素及其相关性，纳入所有自变量且克服多重共线性，采用偏最小二乘法建模，研究中国2019年的用水效率相关因素。结果显示，该方法有效描述了变量的相关关系。与万元GDP用水量相关性较高的因素为自然条件、社会发展水平、一产增加值的GDP占比和水行业劳动力比重。整体经济用水效率东高西低。与耕地实际亩均用水量相关性较高的因素为自然条件和一、二产业增加值的GDP占比。农业用水效率为中高西低。与万元工业增加值用水量相关性较高的因素为自然条件、污水处理率、城镇化率和水行业资本比重。工业用水效率东高中低。与人均公共用水量相关性较高的因素为人均水资源量、年降水量、污水处理率、人均GDP和一、二产业增加值的GDP占比。地区因素与公共用水效率的相关性小。研究成果可为水资源优化管理与合理利用提供参考。     

淮河流域总用水量与用水结构变化的响应

淮河流域面临诸多水资源问题,研究其总用水量与用水结构变化的响应关系,对优化用水结构、落实流域最严格水资源管理制度具有重要意义。以淮河流域1997～2016年的总用水量和农业、工业、生活用水量数据为基础,采用VAR模型,利用脉冲响应函数,借助Eviews软件,探析淮河流域总用水量与用水结构变动之间的响应关系。结果表明,淮河流域总用水量的变化受农业用水比例变化的影响程度最大;工业用水比例的变化对总用水量的影响存在一定滞后性;淮河流域总用水量与生活用水比例之间呈负响应关系,农业用水比例的变动对总用水量的正向影响比工业用水比例大。通过减小农业的用水比例、调控工业的用水比例、适当加大生活的用水比例等措施,尽量调整、优化淮河流域的用水结构,从而使淮河流域的用水结构更为均衡合理。     

天津市城市居民用水行为调查及影响因素识别

基于天津市中心城区108个典型生活小区的居民生活用水的截面调查数据,探讨了天津市城市居民生活用水现状,对影响居民生活用水的主要因素进行了识别,并计算了天津市居民生活的节水潜力。结果表明,天津市家庭人均日生活用水量约为80L/(人·d),这与天津市水资源公报公布结果相吻合;从用水习惯上来看,马桶是否节水、每周洗浴和拖地次数等都是影响家庭用水的主要因素,此外,家庭收入水平也会对家庭用水产生影响;现状年天津市居民生活用水节水潜力为13.13%。     

2006年我国水资源总量25500亿m^3

国家统计局发布的《2006年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》显示，2006全年水资源总量25500亿m^3，比上年减少9．1％；人均水资源1945m^3，减少9．6％；全年平均降水量604m^3，减少6．2％；年末全国大型水库蓄水总量1806亿m^3比上年末减少245亿m^3全年总用水量5670亿m^3，比上年增长0．7％。其中，生活用水增长0．7％，工业用水增长1．9％，农业用水增长0．2％。万元国内生产总值用水量279m^3，比上年下降8．8％％。万元工业增加值用水量151m^3下降9．0％。全国人均用水量为432m^3，与上年基本持平。全年曾有3578万人口、2936万头大牲畜因干旱发生临时性饮水困难。     

广西工业领域高耗水行业节水型企业建设工作的思考

近年来,经过"十二五"期间开展工业节水型企业建设,广西工业节水工作不断进步,全区万元工业增加值用水量和工业取水量占全区总取水量的占比逐年下降,水重复利用率不断提高。但随着广西经济的发展,工业用水需求仍呈增长趋势,水资源供需矛盾进一步凸显。通过树立行业发展的先进典型,总结推广优秀企业节水成功经验,组织实施行业用水效率先进指标,是促进企业加强节水管理、提高工业用水效率的重要途径。     

工业用水中的节能

工业用水中的节能江苏行星机械集团公司李育平１问题提出及解决办法我公司由于受所处地理位置及周围工业供水状况影响，从创建以来一直使用地下水来满足工业生产用水和职工生活用水。随着公司规模的不断扩大，用水的需求也越来越大，前几年我公司采用增加深井的深度和增加...     

中国节水技术政策大纲(中)

(接上期) 3工业节水 工业用水主要包括冷却用水、热力和工艺用水、洗涤用水.其中工业冷却水用量占工业用水总量的80%左右,取水量占工业取水总量的30%～40%.火力发电、钢铁、石油、石化、化工、造纸、纺织、有色金属、食品与发酵等八个行业取水量约占全国工业总取水量的60%(含火力发电直流冷却用水).     

青岛市节能潜力评估

青岛市作为典型的能源输入型城市,未来面临着巨大的能源、环境压力.影响青岛市能源利用效率的因素主要包括能源消费结构、产业结构、重点用能企业单位产品综合能耗、技术进步、居民的生活方式和节能意识等.从结构节能、重点领域节能和管理节能三个方面对青岛市的节能潜力进行评估,结果表明,青岛市“十二五”期间每年的节能潜力合计约为813.34×104t标煤.其中,产业结构年均节能潜力约46.71×104t标煤,相关工业行业每年最大节能潜力约为494.92× 104t标煤,居住建筑和公共建筑每年节能潜力约为70.31×104t标煤,交通领域年节能潜力61.7×104t标煤,居民家用电器年均节能潜力约22.7×104t标煤,农业领域直接节能潜力每年约117×104t标煤.未来青岛市应努力降低煤炭消费比重,提高第三产业比重;加快地方性配套法规和标准建设;进一步完善节能目标责任制,建立和完善省、市、区市三级节能监察体制,强化约束性节能监管;围绕节能产业化方向,加大节能投入,完善节能技术创新体系建设;全面深入地开展节能宣传活动,培养公众低碳节能的生活方式.     

我国火电行业用水效率分析与节水对策

为进一步提高工业用水效率、保障水资源可持续发展和为落实最严格的水资源管理制度提供技术支撑,分析了我国火电行业取水现状和近10年的用水效率。结果表明,火电行业年取水量历经2000～2006年的剧增后,在2006年达最高值85.5×108 m3,此后2006～2008年大幅减少,2008年之后基本保持略微增长的平稳态势;2000～2010年单位发电取水量总体呈下降趋势,火电行业用水效率逐年提高。由此提出了合理的节水对策,为我国火电行业挖掘节水潜力提供了新的思路。     

Analysis and forecast of the Tianjin industrial carbon dioxide emissions resulted from energy consumption

This paper analyses the carbon dioxide emissions caused by industrial energy consumption of Tianjin from 2005 to 2012. The carbon emissions decomposition illustrated that the scale of production factor played a major role in the growth of Tianjin industrial carbon emissions and the average contribution of carbon emissions is up to 220.8975% in the statistical period; the intensity of energy factor played an important role in slowing down the growth of industrial carbon dioxide emissions. The average contribution of carbon emissions was ?136.1994% in the statistical period. The prediction model based on carbon emissions data from industrial energy consumption from 2003 to 2012 reached a high accuracy, with an average error of 1.78% for stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) model, 2.41% for the Logistic regression model and an average error of 1.54% for the grey model. This research can contribute to predict the carbon emission and through it some suggestions can be made.     

The present situation and characteristics of China's energy consumption

China's present energy consumption and its composition in the past decade is introduced in this paper. Energy in China is mainly sourced domestically; coal predominates in the composition of energy consumption (average 72.5%); industrial energy consumption is a large proportion of final energy consumption (average 65.6%); the utilization efficiency of energy is low; serious environment pollution is caused by coal combustion. It is necessary to introduce technology innovation for energy conservation because of the low energy efficiency of equipment and the backwardness of industrial technologies. China must ‘lay equal stress on development and conservation and give priority to conservation in the near future’ while maintaining economic growth.     

Changes in industrial electricity consumption in china from 1998 to 2007

Electricity consumption in the industrial sector experienced a dramatic increase between 1998 and 2007, accounting for approximately 75% of China’s total electricity consumption. This study analyzes the potential factors influencing the growth of electricity consumption in China’s industrial sector over the past decade using a logarithmic mean Divisia index I decomposition method. Results show that activity effect and shift effect (caused by the change in the electricity’s share of industrial energy use) are the major factors responsible for the rise in electricity consumption between 1998 and 2007. It is found that structural change also contributed to the increase in electricity consumption, it had only a small effect. In contrast, the technological effect is responsible for a decrease in electricity consumption during this period. The influences of technological effects and shift effects followed approximately an inverse-U-shaped and U-shaped curve, respectively. Furthermore, the results show that the main contributors to incremental electricity consumption among industrial subsectors were manufacturing of raw chemical material and products, manufacturing of non-metal mineral products, smelting and pressing of ferrous and non-ferrous metals, and production and supply of electric power and heat power. These sectors should take priority for industrial restructuring in order to implement policies for energy and electricity savings.     

An investigation into the present situation and characteristics of china's energy consumption

The present situation of China's energy consumption and its composition in the past decade is introduced in this paper. The characteristics of energy consumption in China are: energy sources are mainly supplied domestically; coal predominates in the composition of energy consumption (average 725%); industrial energy consumption takes the largest proportion of the final energy consumption (average 65.6%); the utilization efficiency of energy is low; serious environmental pollution is caused by coal combustion. It is necessary to conduct technology innovation for energy conservation because of the low efficiency utilization of energy by appliances and the backwardness of industrial technologies. China must carry out continuously the principle ‘lay equal stress on development and conservation and give priority to conservation in the near future’ with the idea that the economy will have a high growth rate.     

基于生命周期理论的鄂尔多斯市水资源耗能计算

为定量计算水资源对于能源的需求,寻找提高水资源的能源利用效率的有效途径,基于生命周期理论将水资源全生命周期划分为提取、净化、输送、利用和污水处理五个环节,提出每个环节水资源耗能的定量计算公式,分析水资源生命周期各个环节的耗能数量及特征。分析鄂尔多斯市2013～2017年的水资源耗能特征及历史变化趋势,发现鄂尔多斯市2013～2017年的水资源耗能量从1.62×10~8kW·h逐年降低至1.08×10~8kW·h,降幅为33.3%;单位水资源耗能量从10.11kW·h/m~3逐年降低至7.02kW·h/m~3,降幅为30.6%;水资源全生命周期的能耗集中于用水环节,用水环节能耗在总能耗中的占比常年保持在95%左右;用水环节的火力发电用水是最大的能耗项目,具有最大的节能潜力。     

Interpreting the dynamic nexus between energy consumption and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Russia

Research on the nexus between energy consumption and economic growth is a fundamental topic for energy policy making and low-carbon economic development. Russia proves the third largest energy consumption country in the world in recent years, while little research has shed light upon its energy consumption issue till now, especially its energy–growth nexus. Therefore, this paper empirically investigates the dynamic nexus of the two variables in Russia based on the state space model. The results indicate that, first of all, Russia's energy consumption is cointegrated with its economic growth in a time-varying way though they do not have static or average cointegration relationship. Hence it is unsuitable to merely portrait the nexus in an average manner. Second, ever since the year of 2000, Russia's energy efficiency has achieved much more promotion compared with that in previous decades, mainly due to the industrial structure adjustment and technology progress. Third, among BRIC countries, the consistency of Russia's energy consumption and economic growth appears the worst, which suggests the complexity of energy–growth nexus in Russia. Finally, there exists bi-directional causality between Russia's energy consumption and economic growth, though their quantitative proportional relation does not have solid foundation according to the cointegration theory.     

浅析火电厂供电煤耗影响因素

结合空冷凝汽式机组运行状况,分析其主要经济指标供电煤耗的影响因素,并挖掘电厂节能潜力。以朔州市格瑞特实业有限公司为例,经测算影响该电厂供电煤耗的＂四率＂（锅炉效率、汽机效率、管道效率、厂用电率）,明确了锅炉效率和汽机效率是影响该电厂供电煤耗的主要因素,同时将锅炉和汽机可控损失对供电煤耗影响进行了定量化分析,找出了该电厂供电煤耗的主要影响因子：凝汽器真空度、主蒸汽、再热蒸汽温度和压力、最终给水温度、排烟含氧量、补水率,并提出了降耗的合理化建议。