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含分布式发电并网的主动配电网作为智能电网的发展方向,其规划方法是一门重要课题。文章针对包含风力发电、光伏发电、可控微电源和储能设备并网的主动配电网规划问题,计及系统运行风险评估建立其优化规划模型。以主动配电网内设备配置容量为优化控制变量,分别以系统综合规划成本最小、系统运行风险指标最低为子目标,将权重系数转化为单目标函数,建立计及系统运行风险评估的主动配电网多目标规划模型。最后通过仿真算例表明,由主动配电网规划模型规划得到的配电网兼顾了经济性和可靠性,而更适用于实际运行情况,能够在减少系统规划成本的前提下,充分降低运行风险指标。 相似文献
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针对继电保护系统风险评估的不确定性,采用软层次模型评估继电保护风险。首先从风险的定义出发,阐述事故发生概率和损失之间的关系;其次根据负荷等级及减供负荷判断事故类型,根据历史统计数据计算该类型下事故发生的概率,利用停电损失函数计算事故发生后对电力行业及各类用户带来的损失;再采用模糊信息粒化算法处理数据,计算继电保护系统的风险并采用以模糊极大集和模糊极小集为参照基准,以海明距离为测量工具的模糊排序方法,对多个地区的风险进行排序。最终通过实例分析验证了采用软层次模型进行继电保护风险评估的正确性和有效性。研究成果可为风险管理决策提供参考。 相似文献
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由于垃圾焚烧炉工作环境恶劣,设备运行存在安全隐患,为确保垃圾焚烧炉的安全高效运行,了解垃圾焚烧炉失效形式并建立科学的风险评估体系具有重要工程意义。本文通过对垃圾焚烧炉失效形式进行总结,将其分成腐蚀、热疲劳、磨损、应力变形四类并分析其产生机理,同时从数据驱动和模糊理论两个角度对现有的垃圾焚烧炉风险评估体系进行总结,发现现有的垃圾焚烧炉风险评估体系难以高效应对海量工业数据和复杂的故障模式。最后提出可以将数据驱动和模糊理论两种风险评估方式相结合,筛除多余数据信息,提高垃圾焚烧炉风险评估的效率和准确性。 相似文献
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超特高压交直流混联电网的安全稳定运行高度依赖继电保护、安全稳定控制等二次系统,对继电保护装置的可靠运行提出了更高要求,继电保护装置状态的智能感知对电网安全有着重要的基础保障作用。为有效感知继电保护设备的运行状态,在状态信息获取的基础上,建立了保护装置老化、告警信息、运行信息的风险评估模型,并建立了反映状态量与状态异常关系的故障树模型,提出了基于模糊综合评估的保护装置运行状态感知方法,在建立状态集、确定隶属度函数基础上,通过建立事件的模糊状态矩阵、确定事件的权重,完成保护装置状态模糊综合评估,实现了保护装置运行状态的智能感知。仿真算例验证了该方法的有效性。 相似文献
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基于实测资料的大坝安全风险管理 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
大坝的变形、渗流及应力应变等监测数据综合反映了大坝的安全性态,基于实测资料及大坝运行实际情况,提出了基于实测资料的大坝群安全风险率的分析方法,为实现大坝安全风险评估提供量化依据。 相似文献
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The potential risk exposure of people for hydrogen refueling stations is often a critical factor to gain authority approval and public acceptance. Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is often used to quantify the risk around hydrogen facilities and support the communication with authorities during the permitting process. This paper shows a case study on a gaseous hydrogen refueling station using QRA methodology. Risks to station personnel, to refueling customers and to third parties are evaluated respectively. Both individual risk measure and societal risk measure are used in risk assessment. Results show that the compressor leak is the main contributor to risks of all three parties. Elevating compressors can be considered as an effective mitigation measure to reduce occupational risks while setting enclosure around compressors cannot. Both measures are effective to reduce risks to customers. As for third parties, societal risks can be reduced to ALARP region by either elevating compressors or setting enclosure around compressors. External safety distance of compressors cannot be considerably reduced by elevation of compressors, but can significantly be reduced by setting compressor enclosure. However, safety distances of the station are not very sensitive to both mitigation measures. 相似文献
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电力系统风险研究现状 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
电力系统风险近些年已成为电力系统的研究新热点,它不但体现了电力系统研究的新思路,而且也完成了在追求电力运行生产安全性和经济性过程中获得新平衡点的目标。结合国内外相关文献,分别对电力系统风险研究现状4大领域(电力系统运行风险、电力系统设备风险、电力市场风险、电力系统安全风险)进行分析,指出更多关于电力系统风险的研究成果将为电力系统提供必要的技术支持。 相似文献
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针对多源负荷的波动性和不确定性影响电力系统安稳运行,导致系统运行可靠性降低等问题,文章提出了一种考虑多源负荷不确定性的电力系统安稳风险优化方法;建立了考虑多源负荷不确定性的电力系统元件停运概率模型;提出了考虑多源负荷不确定性的电力系统安稳风险评估方法、安稳风险评估指标及其评估流程,对多源负荷波动下的电力系统安稳风险进行了评估。以系统运行过程安稳风险最低、负荷削减总量最小和系统经济损失后果最小为目标,建立电力系统安全稳定风险优化模型,对电力系统安稳风险进行优化。文章以IEEE-39节点算例进行仿真,验证了所建立模型的有效性。 相似文献
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本文对能源风险管理的产生及在欧美国家的发展作了回顾,并对与能源风险管理密切相关的金融衍生工具产品作了简要介绍。用假设案例说明煤炭生产和消费企业如何控制煤炭价格风险。对我国如何开展能源风险管理提出了建议。 相似文献
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Interconnected electricity networks, Supergrids, are being considered to help tackle some of the current global energy challenges such as rising CO2 emissions and the complete reliance on renewables. However, there are a range of obstacles associated with developing interconnections, not least the uncertainties associated with selecting appropriate countries with which to make interconnection. The process of identifying and then assessing various risks for these interconnections can be considered to be an important factor in mitigating and controlling their impact from within and outside national and international boundaries. To this end, this paper presents a risk‐based framework to identify and assess the risks associated with developing new interconnections with other countries. Expert's knowledge and information available from the literature were used to identify 19 construction and 11 maintenance risks and to rank them using a ‘risk’ matrix. The usefulness of the approach is demonstrated using the UK as the case study. The analysis of the identified risks showed that regulatory framework, changes in energy policy and weak onshore grids require special attention and that, of those countries considered, Ireland was deemed to have the lowest risk for interconnection with the UK. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献