Probabilistic approach to available transfer capability calculation

This paper suggests a probabilistic approach to calculate available transfer capability in the interconnected network. Calculation of available transfer capability is complicated because it involves determination of total transfer capability, transmission reliability margin and capacity benefit margin.In the suggested available transfer capability quantification method, total transfer capability is determined by the continuation power flow process. Transmission reliability margin and capacity benefit margin are evaluated by probabilistic load flow and Monte Carlo simulation, respectively.Proposed method is applied to a modified IEEE 72-bus 3-area system to calculate available transfer capability on two different time spans. Results of the case study show that suggested probabilistic approach can offer operational flexibility for system operators to consider system and market uncertainties.     

Consideration of multiple uncertainties for evaluation of available transfer capability using fuzzy continuation power flow

In today’s electric power industry, accurate and flexible information is needed to provide nondiscriminatory access to all market participants. This paper primarily purports to determine available transfer capability (ATC) based on the fuzzy set theory for continuation power flow (CPF), thereby capturing uncertainty. Assuming that uncertainties involved in the ATC calculation are estimated or measured, a fuzzy model is formulated in which major uncertainty parameters affecting the ATC are regarded as fuzzy variables subject to their possibility distributions. The purpose of this paper is to elaborate main features of the fuzzy continuation power flow (FCPF) algorithm that can handle uncertainties in load parameters and bus injections as well. As such, the robust solution will assist in providing additional information on the actual ability of the network to a system operator. In other respects, it poses a significant influence on the potential curtailment of power trades from which the reinforcement strategy can be set by the system operator. The viability of the proposed method would be verified through a stark contrast with the ones obtained from the conventional CPF and the fuzzy power flow (FPF) in the IEEE-24 RTS bus system and in the IEEE-118 bus system.     

一种简捷实用的配电系统供电能力计算方法

提出一种简捷实用的配电系统供电能力计算方法。首先给出了N-1准则下供电能力的基本定义,指出配电系统的供电能力由站内供电能力和电网供电转移能力2部分组成。根据基本定义推导了电网供电能力的通用计算公式,并研究了变电站站内供电能力与网络转移能力的关系,给出了网络最优供电转移能力的相关结论。文章最后给出了配电网供电能力分析的计算步骤和基本流程。该方法思路简单,基于供电能力给出的网络最优转移能力可为城市电网规划提供参考。实际算例验证了本文方法的正确性和有效性。     

光电-光热区域综合能源系统太阳能消纳能力评估模型

合理评估太阳能消纳能力是支撑构建绿色、低碳、清洁的能源体系的重要环节。针对光电-光热区域综合能源系统太阳能消纳问题,提出了一种可充分考虑光照强度不确定性和系统安全运行约束的太阳能消纳能力鲁棒评估模型。首先,基于热力学第一定律构建了消纳能力评估指标;进而利用配电网二阶锥模型及线性热网能量流模型构建了两阶段鲁棒评估模型,提升了模型的可解性。最后,通过典型算例验证了太阳能综合利用可提高其消纳能力,并对光照强度波动、电网损耗、热电联产(CHP)机组类型、不确定度等因素对消纳能力的影响进行了分析。     

考虑FACTS配置的电网输电能力计算

灵活交流输电(FACTS)技术是提高电网输电能力的有效手段。文章基于连续潮流法,将静止无功补偿器(static var compensator,SVC)和可控串联补偿器(thyristor controlled series capacitor,TCSC)的稳态模型加入潮流方程中,建立了计及SVC和TCSC的可用输电能力计算模型。考虑到确定元件安装位置的重要性,利用连续潮流法求取系统极限功率点的输电能力,以该值与网络参数的灵敏度系数作为指标,选择最有利于提高输电能力的SVC和TCSC安装位置。对IEEE 30和IEEE 118节点系统进行的仿真计算证明了所提出模型和方法的有效性。     

考虑暂态稳定约束的联络线最大传输功率计算

由于确定电力系统联络线最大功率时要考虑其故障时对系统暂态稳定的影响,故提出了一种基于能量函数灵敏度的考虑暂态稳定约束的联络线最大传输功率计算方法。该法首先确定网络在临界或失稳情况下的能量裕度及能量裕度对各发电机有功出力的灵敏度,再用等步长法和二分法按各发电机能量裕度灵敏度的大小调整有功出力,结合时域仿真法的判稳校验求出考虑暂态稳定约束的联络线极限传输功率。该法计算简单、快速,较好的解决了考虑暂态稳定约束后计算负担过重和直接法偏于保守的问题。2个算例仿真测试证实了该法的有效性。     

快速计算电网可用输电能力的交流灵敏度方法

在电力市场环境下，可用输电能力(ATC)是反映输电设备可用于能量交易的剩余容量的重要指标。ATC一旦确定后，快速估计出系统参数变化对输电能力的影响具有很大的实际应用价值。文中首先基于连续潮流方法，考虑输电支路的过负荷约束、发电机有功及无功出力约束和节点电压约束，计算出ATC的值；然后推导出ATC对多种运行参数摄动的一阶灵敏度计算模型，运行参数包括节点负荷功率、发电节点端电压以及给定的能量交易，这些灵敏度系数能够很快地计算；最后，使用了IEEE30节点系统的算例来验证文中所提出的方法的有效性和快速性。     

Sensitivity of transfer capability margins with a fast formula

Bulk power transfers in electric power systems are limited by transmission network security. Transfer capability measures the maximum power transfer permissible under certain assumptions. Once a transfer capability has been computed for one set of assumptions, it is useful to quickly estimate the effect on the transfer capability of modifying those assumptions. This paper presents a computationally efficient formula for the first order sensitivity of the transfer capability with respect to the variation of any parameters. The sensitivity formula is very fast to evaluate. The approach is consistent with the current industrial practice of using DC load flow models and significantly generalizes that practice to more detailed AC power system models that include voltage and reive power limits. The computation is illustrated and tested on a 3357 bus power system     

Computation of TCSC reactance and suggesting criterion of its location for ATC improvement

Deregulation of power system has brought major changes in the system operation and control. When open access is made available to the market players, one or more lines in the transmission network could be overloaded, thereby causing congestion. Congestion management can be achieved by improving available transfer capability (ATC) of the network. FACTS devices such as TCSC and UPFC have proven their utility for ATC improvement. The active power flow control can be done more effectively by these devices. Their design and installation need the determination of changes in parameters for maintaining the desired power flow in the line causing congestion. This paper proposes a new approach for determination of changes in the reactance of TCSC, required for achieving the desired transfer capability. Sensitivity analysis is used for computing the changes in line flow of the lines with and without TCSC. Also a suitable criterion with a mathematical model for computation of reactance is proposed for selection of a line for the installation of TCSC. Through the results, it is shown that ATC is improved to a specified value by the installation of TCSC in the selected line which has the reactance as computed by the proposed method.     

基于改进信号能量法估计暂态稳定极限

信号能量法是一种基于时域仿真数据来快速求取电力系统暂态稳定极限的方法。它的基础是认为在给定故障条件下，暂态电压响应的信号能量将随着功率增加而渐近增长，其渐近线对应于暂态稳定极限，从而建立信号能量与传输功率和稳定极限的解析函数关系。另外，对于不同功率水平的暂态仿真数据可以得到该水平下的暂态电压数值信号能量。应用这些数值信号能量和解析信号能量表达式即可对稳定极限做出估计。文中提出了两种新的解析信号能量表达式，即1阶近似法和3阶近似法。在新英格兰系统和四川重庆系统中的应用证实了所提出方法的正确性，并且与原方法比较，所提出的方法适应性更强，更有效。特别是1阶近似法能够保持以较高精度确定系统的暂态稳定极限。     

计及电—气互联能源系统安全约束的可用输电能力计算

电力系统可用输电能力(ATC)定义了不同区域间的功率交换能力,ATC信息对于电力市场参与者而言至关重要。然而,随着以天然气为一次能源的燃气轮机(NGFPP)发电比重的显著提升,传统ATC计算并没有考虑NGFPP的一次能源供应以及天然气系统的运行约束,显然并不恰当。为此,文中研究了计及电—气互联能源系统静态安全约束的电力系统ATC计算,提出了电—气互联能源系统静态安全域的概念。采用基于线性预测的连续潮流法求解,以线性预测法辨识制约ATC的关键约束,不仅实现了ATC的快速、准确计算,而且为天然气系统运行状态的调整提供了参考。最后,算例分析验证了文中所述方法的适用性。     

交直流混合系统可用输电能力评估

随着我国交直流混合系统规模的不断扩大,交直流混合系统可用输电能力(available transfer capability,ATC)的计算模型和方法的研究成为一个关键问题。电力系统是一个动态时变系统,存在大量的不确定性和随机性,考虑这些不确定性因素对ATC的影响是准确计算ATC的一个难点。文中提出了一种基于非序贯蒙特卡罗仿真的可用输电能力评估方法,综合考虑负荷变化、设备故障、直流系统控制方式变化和天气等不确定性因素的影响,并从充裕性方面定义一系列的概率指标进行ATC评估。采用Matlab7.1编写相关的计算程序,并用改进的IEEE 14节点系统进行算例分析。计算结果表明,文中所提方法正确有效,能给出更准确的ATC信息。     

A study on the multiswing instability region using Hopf bifurcation theory considering energy threshold

Transient stability is treated as one of the important constraints for calculating available transfer capability (ATC), especially in Japan. Therefore, to improve the time required for ATC calculation, development of high‐speed transient stability analysis is required. For this analysis, a screening method that can recognize the serious case of fault will be greatly effective to solve the problem. Many screening methods on the first swing instability are proposed these days. However, a method based on multiswing instability has not been developed and its characteristic is not understood clearly. In this paper, the relationship between the nonlinear limit cycle and the energy function of a power system is examined using the Hopf bifurcation theory. A calculation method, which gives the critical transfer capability considering multiswing instability, is proposed. © 2006 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

风电并网系统区域间概率可用输电能力计算

为了准确评估风电场接入电网对系统可用输电能力(Available Transfer Capability,ATC)的影响,针对风电并网系统的概率可用输电能力计算展开研究,详细分析不同风电并网情况下ATC的变化规律。首先基于风速Weibull分布,建立了大型风电场输出功率数学模型;进而采用原-对偶内点法完成风电并网系统可用输电能力单一样板值的求解。在此基础上,采用蒙特卡罗仿真法从广义角度对风电并网系统的ATC进行概率评估。仿真结果表明,所提算法能够有效评估风电这种波动性电源对ATC的影响。研究成果可为风电并网系统安全经济性能评估提供有效参考信息,对未来电网规划扩建具有指导意义。     

基于直流灵敏度法的可用传输容量输电费用评估

在竞争性的电力市场环境下,输电网的可用传输容量(Available Transfer Capability,ATC)输电费用是一个亟待解决的问题。提出了ATC传输费用的概念,阐述了直流潮流灵敏度法的ATC的传输费用算法,该方法利用直流潮流灵敏度的变化来分析电力市场环境下可用传输容量的问题,并利用潮流跟踪法将可用传输容量输电费用公平分摊到各个交易的参与者,最后使用所提算法以及常规最优潮流法对WSCC-9节点输电系统某时段的电力交易进行了仿真计算。结果表明,此方法计算速度快、迭代次数少,能有效地跟踪电力市场的变化,能够满足电力市场实时交易的要求,具有一定的经济实用价值。     

增量配电背景下考虑不确定性修正的规划负荷预测方法

针对新一轮电改推进背景下的城市及园区级增量配电网市场,在分析该背景下电网规划中负荷预测问题与需求的基础上,对面向增量配网规划的负荷预测结论描述方式进行了改进,并进一步提出了考虑分布式能源、入住率等不确定性因素的负荷预测模型,根据预测需求设定不同的置信区间,对不同发展状态下的增量配电园区进行负荷预测修正。实际算例表明,该方法可为园区增量配电网规划提供考虑不确定性因素的量化思路。     

基于机会约束的多能源枢纽电气互联综合能源系统日前经济调度

集生产、转化、储存和消费于一身的能源枢纽使电网和天然气系统的协同规划与运行成为可能,同时多种不确定性是电气互联系统调度面临的最大问题。为此构建了一种含多个能源枢纽的电气互联综合能源系统机会约束规划。首先,充分挖掘气管网的储能特性,在分别对能源枢纽、电力系统和天然气系统精细建模的基础上,考虑风电和负荷不确定性,建立了含机会约束的日前调度模型。然后,将气网潮流线性化,采用Bernstein近似将此模型转化为确定性整数混合线性凸优化问题,可利用商业软件有效求解。最后,在一个含3个能源枢纽的IEEE RST24电力系统和比利时20节点天然气系统的耦合系统中进行仿真,结果表明,气网动态特性能为综合能源系统调度提供缓冲,同时此种确定性转化方法能有效体现机会约束规划的鲁棒性。     

可用输电能力评估的序贯蒙特卡罗仿真法

电力市场环境下,频繁的电能交易使系统运行的不确定性急剧增加。为保证系统的安全、可靠和经济运行,必须合理考虑不确定性因素的影响后,再对电网输电能力进行评估。该文提出了一种基于序贯蒙特卡罗仿真的可用输电能力(available transfer capability, ATC)计算方法,能综合考虑动态时变性和不确定性的影响,根据元件的运行特性及状态转移特性按时间顺序来仿真系统状态,并定义一系列的概率指标进行ATC评估。采用Matlab 6.5编写相关的计算程序,通过IEEE 39节点系统的算例分析,证明在ATC计算中,考虑不确定性和时变性因素的必要性。计算结果表明,该文提出的方法新颖实用,具有一定的工程应用价值。     

输电系统可用输电能力的概率模型及计算

将蒙特卡洛模拟法和灵敏度分析法相结合，以直流潮流为基础，建立了输电系统可用传输能力(ATC)计算的概率模型。应用蒙特卡洛模拟法合理考虑了输电系统中的不确定性因素；应用灵敏度分析法快速计算了输电系统ATC；两者结合，不仅可以得到ATC的数学期望及其概率分布，还可以得到影响输电系统ATC的主要因素，反映输电系统的薄弱点，为输电系统的规划和电力交易商的商业行为提供决策依据。测试系统的计算结果说明了该算法的正确性和有效性。     

市场环境下基于最优潮流的输电网规划

电力市场环境下,扩展或加强输电系统对满足发电公司和用户的需求、减缓输电系统阻塞、促进市场的公平竞争具有重要作用。文中首先以Pool市场模式为背景,基于最优潮流(OPF)的输电网边际定价模型,提出一个计及多场景的综合性系统阻塞指标作为评估规划网络可靠性的经济指标;然后建立了阻塞指标约束下的输电网静态规划模型,并用IEEE-24RTS实验系统进行了验证。与传统的输电网规划相比,该模型由市场条件下的OPF确定系统最优经济运行状况,能更科学地进行输电网规划决策,有效减缓系统阻塞发生,提高规划系统经济性能,易于扩展从而计及电网规划中的各种不确定性因素。