Variation in the effectiveness of breast screening by year of follow-up

This meta-analysis assesses the effectiveness of breast screening by year from the start of screening for women aged 40-49 at study entry. Data from previous randomized controlled trials on breast cancer screening were combined, and cumulative and yearly breast cancer mortality rates and relative risks (RRs) were calculated for women offered screening compared to those not offered screening. At 7 years of follow-up, no reduction in breast cancer mortality from screening starting at ages 40-49 was found. At 10 years of follow-up, a nonsignificant reduction in breast cancer mortality was seen for women aged 40-49 at entry (RR = 0.93; 95% CI: 0.77-1.11). A nonsignificant excess of breast cancer mortality in those offered screening aged 40-49 was observed during the early years of follow-up in several trials. While the favorable effect of screening was observed within the first 5 years of study entry for women aged 50 or more, no similar effect was seen for women aged 40-49. The delayed effect for the 40-49 cohort may be attributable to 1) a biological difference in the effects of screening, which may be related to the onset of menopause, and 2) screening that occurred when women were aged 50 or more rather than before that age.     

Use of fine needle aspiration for solid breast lesions is accurate and cost-effective

BACKGROUND: Palpable breast tumors have traditionally been diagnosed with open biopsy or core biopsy. We propose fine needle aspiration biopsy (FNA) as a reliable, cost-saving initial procedure in these patients. METHODS: Eighty-five palpable solid breast masses of the breast in 85 patients were classified by a combination of physical examination, mammography, and/or ultrasound as probably benign, indeterminate, or highly suspicious for cancer. All tumors had FNA biopsies. All patients had either a confirmatory open biopsy (55) or close clinical follow-up (30) with a mean follow-up of 29 months (range 6 to 36). RESULTS: Thirty-four patients classified as clinically benign had a benign FNA biopsy. No cancers were detected in this group by either open surgical biopsy or clinical follow-up. Twenty patients were classified clinically as indeterminate. All had FNA biopsies, and 6 were either positive for cancer or suspicious for cancer. Fourteen patients had negative FNA biopsies. Five of the 6 abnormal biopsies had cancer on open biopsies. The 1 false-positive result occurred in a lactating patient. Thirty-one patients were classified clinically as highly suspicious for cancer. Twenty-three were confirmed as cancer with FNA biopsy. Eight needed open surgical biopsy to confirm cancer. All 31 patients clinically suspicious for cancer had cancer. In patients classified clinically as highly suspicious or probably benign, FNA was a reliable first diagnostic step (100% positive predictive value, 100% specificity, 87% sensitivity, and 89% negative predictive value). CONCLUSIONS: Fine needle aspiration biopsy of solid palpable breast lesions should be the diagnostic procedure of choice for those patients classified clinically as probably benign or clinically as highly suspicious for cancer. Cost analysis revealed elimination of an open biopsy in such cases would save $1,100 per patient. For highly suspicious cases, a negative fine needle aspiration should not deter an open surgical biopsy. For patients classified as indeterminate, fine needle aspiration biopsy results are not reliable enough to determine treatment.     

Value of breast imaging in women with painful breasts: observational follow up study

OBJECTIVES: To determine the value of breast imaging in patients with localised or diffuse pain in the breast in whom physical examination shows no abnormalities. DESIGN: Observational follow up study. SETTING: Radiology department of a teaching hospital in the Netherlands. SUBJECTS: Altogether 987 women referred for radiological breast imaging because of pain alone and a control group of 987 asymptomatic women referred for a screening mammogram. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Correlation of the radiological findings with clinical and pathological findings over two years of follow up. RESULTS: Radiological examination of the painful breast(s) showed the following: normal findings in 854 (86.5%) women, benign abnormalities in 85 (8.6%; mainly small cysts or mastopathy), abnormalities that were probably benign in 36 (3.6%), suspicious findings in 8 (0.8%), and malignancy in 4 (0.4%). Biopsy of the painful area was performed in 10 of the 939 women with normal findings or benign abnormalities, in two of 36 women with radiological abnormalities that were probably benign, and in all women with suspicious or malignant findings. Only the four lesions that had been classified radiologically as malignant were found to be malignant at surgery. The prevalence of breast cancer was similar in symptomatic and control women. CONCLUSIONS: Breast imaging in women who present with pain alone is of value only in providing reassurance--no abnormalities are usually found in the painful area, radiological abnormalities classified as benign do not generally have any clinical consequences, and the prevalence of cancer is low in these women. Biopsy of the painful area should be performed only where radiological findings are suspicious.     

A workplace breast cancer screening program. Costs and components

Screening for breast cancer can result in early detection of malignancies and lives saved. Many employers now offer periodic screening as an employee health benefit, and some have established screening programs in the workplace. This study was performed to identify the employer costs of breast cancer screening in the workplace, referrals for suspicious findings, and initial treatment of malignant disease. Additionally, the costs for these same services, had they been obtained outside of a workplace screening program, were estimated. Data on program components and associated costs for an established employer based breast cancer screening program were obtained. These costs were compared to those among a hypothetical cohort of women not enrolled in the workplace screening program. From 1989 through 1995, 1,416 women participated in the program. Nearly 2,500 screening mammograms and approximately 2,773 clinical breast examinations were performed, resulting in 292 referrals to physicians outside of the program for additional diagnostic procedures and treatment as needed. These referrals resulted in the detection of 12 malignancies: 8 Stage I; 3 Stage II; and 1 Stage III. Mammographic and clinical breast examination screening cost $249,041; referrals resulting in benign disease or no detectable disease cost $185,002; and referrals resulting in malignant disease, followed by initial treatment, cost $148,530. Therefore, the total cost was $582,573. Approximately 47% of the cost of referrals and initial treatment were due to employee lost productivity. Total cost in the hypothetical cohort was $1,067,948 under the assumptions that all women received screening outside of the workplace, and that the same number of malignancies were detected at the same stage as in the workplace program. These findings indicate referrals resulting in detection of benign disease or no disease accounted for a substantial proportion of the total cost of the program. In addition, employee lost productivity accounted for almost 50% of the cost of all referrals and initial treatment. Workplace screening is a relatively efficient approach for early detection of breast cancer when compared to off site screening or no screening. The efficiency could be improved with a reduction in the number and cost of unnecessary referrals.     

Cancer incidence, mortality and survival: trends in four leading sites

Cancer mortality rates in the United States have stabilized in the past few years after rising for more than 50 years. Incidence and mortality rates for all cancers tend to be higher among men than women, among blacks than whites and among those over age 65. In 1994 cancer of the lung, prostate, breast, and colon/rectum (colorectal) will account for an estimated 57 percent of all new cancer cases and 55 percent of cancer deaths. Analysis of incidence, mortality and survival rates of these four major cancers indicate some encouraging trends. That is, even though age-adjusted incidence rates continue to increase, it appears that educational and screening efforts are having a positive influence on mortality rates. Lung cancer incidence has declined in recent years following a decrease in smoking among men that began some 20 years ago; evidence also indicates a start of a declining trend in their mortality from this disease, as well. Lung cancer incidence and mortality rates among women, however, continue to rise. In 1986 lung cancer became the leading cause of cancer deaths among women. Increased use and improved techniques of cancer detection for prostate, breast and colorectal cancers are resulting in larger numbers of these cancers being detected at early stages when they are more readily treatable. It is hoped that such activities will ultimately reduce mortality for these three major cancer sites.     

Mobilization of iron from neoplastic cells by some iron chelators is an energy-dependent process

Breast cancer is the second leading cause of cancer mortality in African American women. Low rates of cancer screening participation have been documented in inner-city elderly African American populations. Knowledge and beliefs about breast cancer and screening, and self-efficacy in performing breast self-examinations, are important components in an educational program aimed at increasing participation in breast cancer screening. The objectives of this study were to determine the breast cancer knowledge of subjects, their level of confidence when performing breast self-examination, and if individual instruction, one-to-one practice, and feedback on performance made a difference in screening practices. The findings suggest that a more intensive training intervention sustains breast examination self-efficacy.     

Statistical modelling of breast cancer incidence and mortality rates in Scotland

The interpretation of time trends in disease rates can be facilitated using estimable contrasts from age-period-cohort models. Cohort and period trends in breast cancer incidence and mortality rates in Scotland were investigated using contrasts that measure the changes in the linear trends. These contrasts were compared with estimates obtained from mortality rates in the USA and Japan. A significant moderation of both breast cancer incidence and mortality rates was observed in Scotland, associated with cohorts of women born after the Second World War compared with women born between the two world wars. The moderation of breast cancer mortality among cohorts born after 1925 compared with cohorts born before 1925 that was observed in the USA and Japan was also observed in this study. This moderation is not present in the incidence rates. The relative decline in the risk of breast cancer seen in younger cohorts seems to be contradictory to the temporal pattern present among breast cancer risk factors. It may well be that the alteration of eating patterns as a result of rationing in the wartime and immediate post-war period, and the subsequent influence on certain breast cancer risk factors probably produced by such changes, may have had some influence on the development of healthier girls and women. Such speculation could be addressed in a well-designed epidemiological study. There have been no changes in the mortality rate trends with period in Scotland, although the changes in the incidence rate trends with period are consistent with an increase in registration coverage.     

Self-selection for mammography and breast cancer incidence by stage

AIMS AND BACKGROUND: In the field of breast cancer control, obtaining population-based data on spontaneous mammography (MG) screening should be a priority. This study focuses on the breast cancer incidence and stage distribution in relation to MG use in Ravenna (Italy), 1987-88. METHODS: We estimated the MG rates, expected (E) incidence based on mortality data, observed (O) incidence, predicted excess incidence based on MG rates, observed excess incidence, and stage distribution according to the MG history. RESULTS: The highest MG rate (37%) was found among residents aged 40-44 but none of these had a T1a-bNO breast cancer diagnosed nor was the predicted excess incidence demonstrated. Between 45 and 64 years, 80% of self-selected screenees had repeat ("incidence") MG and the O:E incidence ratio was 1.32 (95% CI 1.09-1.58). The observed excess incidence was 3.8-fold (95% CI 2.56-5.16) greater than that predicted. Advanced (T2+ and/or N1+) cases accounted for 42% of patients diagnosed within 3 years of their last MG, for 55% of those diagnosed more than 3 years after their last MG, and for 70% of those with no previous MG. Above age 70, a significant worsening of stage at diagnosis was associated with a clearcut drop self-referral for MG. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that self-selection and its implications are major features of spontaneous screening practice.     

Efficacy of screening mammography among women aged 40 to 49 years and 50 to 69 years: comparison of relative and absolute benefit

In randomized controlled trials, screening mammography has been shown to reduce mortality from breast cancer about 25% to 30% among women aged 50 to 69 years after only five to six years from the initiation of screening. Among women aged 40 to 49 years, trials have reported no reduction in breast cancer mortality after seven to nine years from the initiation of screening; after 10 to 14 years there is a 16% reduction in breast cancer mortality. Given that the incidence of breast cancer for women aged 40 to 49 years is lower and the potential benefit from mammography screening smaller and delayed, the absolute number of deaths prevented by screening women aged 40 to 49 years is much less than in screening women aged 50 to 69 years. Because the absolute benefit of screening women aged 40 to 49 years is small and there is concern that the harms are substantial, the focus should be to help these women make informed decisions about screening mammography by educating them of their true risk of breast cancer and the potential benefits and risks of screening.     

The early detection of prostate carcinoma with prostate specific antigen: the Washington University experience

BACKGROUND: It is not yet known whether screening for the detection of early prostate carcinoma will reduce mortality rates. However, data are available to assess intermediate outcomes from screening, including the performance characteristics of the screening tests and shifts in disease stage. METHODS: Approximately 30,000 community volunteers (mean age 60 years; <5% nonwhite) were enrolled in 1 of 3 screening studies. Volunteers were screened with PSA or PSA in combination with digital rectal examination at 6-month intervals, and prostatic biopsy was recommended for those with results suspicious for cancer. Based on a first-time screen, the current study reports screening test results, the proportion of men recommended to undergo biopsy, the proportion who actually underwent biopsy, and the carcinoma detection rates for each study, stratified by initial PSA level. The authors also report the pathologic features of screen-detected carcinomas for a subset of men who underwent radical prostatectomy and for whom complete embedding and microscopic examination of the surgical specimen was performed. RESULTS: Approximately 10% of the volunteers had PSA levels >4.0 ng/mL and 3-10% had digital rectal examination results suspicious for cancer. Overall, 9-20% of volunteers were recommended to undergo biopsy and 8-13% actually underwent the procedure. The positive predictive value for carcinoma detection ranged from 25-33% across studies. In the subset of men for whom surgical specimens were completely embedded, the majority of tumors detected had the clinicopathologic features of significant carcinoma (<10% possibly harmless). CONCLUSIONS: The intermediate outcomes for screening with PSA and/or PSA in combination with digital rectal examination are encouraging. In community volunteers these screening tests demonstrated reasonable positive predictive value and detected carcinomas at an earlier stage. The majority of screen-detected tumors had the pathologic characteristics of medically significant carcinoma.     

Screening women aged less than 50 years with a family history of breast cancer

Family history is an important breast cancer risk factor and is a common reason for referral to specialist breast clinics for consideration of breast screening. The aims of this study were to determine cancer detection rates and prognostic features of breast cancers identified in women aged less than 50 years at increased risk of breast cancer who attend a Family History Breast Screening Clinic (FHC). Between January 1988 and December 1995, 1371 asymptomatic women aged less than 50 years underwent annual clinical breast examination and biennial mammography due to a family history of breast cancer. A total of 29 cancers (23 invasive and 6 in situ) were detected or presented as interval cancer during a mean follow-up of 22 months (range 0-96 months). This gave a relative risk for invasive breast cancer in this high-risk group of 5 when compared with an age-matched female population in the U.K. The cancer screening detection rates were similar to those of women aged 50 years or over undergoing population screening in the NHS Breast Screening Programme (NHSBSP)--FHC prevalent screen 8 per 1000 screening visits versus NHSBSP 6.5 per 1000, FHC incident screen 3.3 per 1000 screening visits versus NHSBSP 3.8 per 1000. A higher proportion of in situ cancers were detected in the FHC screened group compared with cancers identified in symptomatic patients from an age-matched risk group (21% versus 4%). No differences were demonstrated for invasive tumour size, grade or lymph node stage between symptomatic and screened women. The early results of this study suggests that young women at risk of breast cancer due to a family history may benefit from regular breast screening due to the early detection of in situ lesions.     

The role of hormone replacement therapy in the risk for breast cancer and total mortality in women with a family history of breast cancer

BACKGROUND: The risks and benefits of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) are of considerable interest and importance, especially in terms of whether they differ among subsets of women. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether HRT is associated with increased risks for breast cancer and total mortality in women with a family history of breast cancer. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Population-based sample of midwestern post-menopausal women enrolled in an observational study of risk factors for cancer. PARTICIPANTS: Random sample of 41,837 female Iowa residents 55 to 69 years of age. MEASUREMENTS: Incidence rates of and relative risks for breast cancer (n = 1085) and total mortality (n = 2035) through 8 years of follow-up were calculated by using data from the State Health Registry of Iowa and the National Death Index. RESULTS: A family history of breast cancer was reported by 12.2% of the cohort at risk. Among women with a family history of breast cancer, those who currently used HRT and had done so for at least 5 years developed breast cancer at an age-adjusted annual rate of 61 cases per 10,000 person-years (95% CI, 28 to 94 cases); this rate was not statistically significantly higher than the rate in women who had never used HRT (46 cases per 10,000 person-years [CI, 36 to 55 cases]). Among women with a family history, those who used HRT had a significantly lower risk for total mortality than did women who had never used HRT (relative risk, 0.67 [CI, 0.51 to 0.89]), including total cancer-related mortality (relative risk, 0.75 [CI, 0.50 to 1.12]). The age-adjusted annual mortality rate for women using HRT for at least 5 years was 46 deaths per 10,000 person-years (CI, 19 to 74 deaths); this is roughly half the rate seen in women who had never used HRT (80 deaths per 10,000 person-years [CI, 69 to 92 deaths]). CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that HRT use in women with a family history of breast cancer is not associated with a significantly increased incidence of breast cancer but is associated with a significantly reduced total mortality rate.     

Frequency of asymptomatic choroidal metastasis in patients with disseminated breast cancer: results of a prospective screening programme

AIM: To determine the frequency of visually asymptomatic choroidal metastasis in patients with disseminated breast cancer and its dependence on the incidence of metastasis by number and site of other organ metastases. METHODS: From January 1995 until April 1997 120 patients irradiated for disseminated breast cancer underwent ophthalmological screening for choroidal metastasis. No patient was symptomatic for ocular disease. 68 out of 120 patients were found to have metastases in one organ and 52 patients had metastases in more than one organ. 80% of the patients had bone metastases, 25% lung metastases, 22% liver metastases, 15% brain metastases, and 22% had metastases in other organs. RESULTS: Six patients (5%) were found to have asymptomatic choroidal metastases. Five patients had unilateral and one patient bilateral metastases. 52 patients with more than one involved organ had a significantly higher risk for asymptomatic choroidal metastasis (6/52, 11%) than 68 patients with metastases in only one organ (0/68) (p = 0.006). In univariate analysis a significantly higher risk was seen for patients with lung metastases (14% choroidal metastases versus 2% in patients without lung metastases, p = 0.03) and for patients with brain metastases (17% choroidal metastases versus 3% in those without brain metastases, p = 0.04). CONCLUSION: In disseminated breast cancer the incidence of asymptomatic choroidal metastases was 5% and increased to 11% when more than one organ was involved in metastatic spread. Risk factors for choroidal metastases were dissemination of disease in more than one organ and the presence of lung and brain metastases.     

Screening for prostate cancer

In an attempt to detect prostate cancer when the tumor is still confined to the prostate, a screening program was established. We studied the efficacy of digital rectal examination (DRE) and serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) in the early detection of prostate cancer. One thousand men aged 50-75 years underwent DRE and serum PSA determination. Transrectal ultrasound-guided biopsies were obtained in each case of a suspicious DRE. Six systematic biopsies were performed if the PSA level was > 10 ng/ml, even if DRE and transrectal ultrasonography revealed no areas suspicious of cancer. A suspicious DRE was noted in 11.5% of the subjects; 16% had elevated levels of serum PSA (> 4 ng/ml) and 3.9% had serum PSA > 10 ng/ml. Biopsies were obtained from 90 patients, of which 31 were positive for prostate cancer. The cancer detection rate was 2.2% for DRE, 2.0% for PSA > 10 ng/ml, and 3.1% for the two methods combined. Clinical staging revealed that in 29 of the 31 patients with prostate cancer, the tumor was confined to the prostate: Stage A in 9 cases and stage B in 20 cases. Only two patients had clinically advanced cancer, and 22 patients underwent radical prostatectomy. Pathological examination disclosed biologically significant tumors in 91% of the cases in terms of tumor volume and grade. Although there is little evidence that screening will result in the reduction of the disease-specific mortality rate, early detection of prostate cancer by DRE, serum PSA, and transrectal ultrasound should be encouraged.     

The founder mutations 185delAG and 5382insC in BRCA1 and 6174delT in BRCA2 appear in 60% of ovarian cancer and 30% of early-onset breast cancer patients among Ashkenazi women

The mutations 185delAG, 188del11, and 5382insC in the BRCA1 gene and 6174delT in the BRCA2 gene were analyzed in 199 Ashkenazi and 44 non-Ashkenazi Jewish unrelated patients with breast and/or ovarian cancer. Of the Jewish Ashkenazi women with ovarian cancer, 62% (13/21) had one of the target mutations, as did 30% (13/43) of women with breast cancer alone diagnosed before the age 40 years and 10% (15/141) of those with breast cancer diagnosed after the age 40 years. Age at ovarian cancer diagnosis was not associated with carrier status. Of 99 Ashkenazi patients with no family history of breast and/or ovarian cancer, 10% carried one of the mutations; in two of them the mutation was proved to be paternally transmitted. One non-Ashkenazi Jewish ovarian cancer patient from Iraq carried the 185delAG mutation. Individual mutation frequencies among breast cancer Ashkenazi patients were 6.7% for 185delAG, 2.2% for 5382insC, and 4.5% for 6174delT, among ovarian cancer patients; 185delAG and 6174delT were about equally common (33% and 29%, respectively), but no ovarian cancer patient carried the 5382insC. More mutations responsible for inherited breast and ovarian cancer probably remain to be found in this population, since 79% of high-incidence breast cancer families and 35% of high-incidence breast/ovarian cancer families had none of the three known founder mutations.     

An investigation into the causes of absconding among black African breast cancer patients

OBJECTIVE: To discuss the complexities facing the researcher in attempting to determine reasons for the high rate of absconding from biomedical treatments by black African women diagnosed with breast cancer. DESIGN: Qualitative study based on in-depth interviews and participant observations of the informants, to ascertain attitudes, beliefs and practices of black African breast cancer patients with regard to the choice of healer. PARTICIPANTS: 10 black breast cancer patients, 4 African indigenous healers, 4 black lay persons, and 8 Groote Schuur Hospital members. SETTING: Radiation Oncology Department, Groote Schuur Hospital, Cape Town. RESULTS: The study revealed that various determinants affect black women's decision to abscond from biomedical breast cancer treatments. These determinants were based on social and cultural peculiarities. However, these findings did not explain the difference in absconding rates between black cervical (30%) and breast cancer (80%) patients. Although the two patient groups shared social, economic, and cultural backgrounds, their decisions with regard to biomedical treatments of cancer were remarkably different. CONCLUSIONS: The methods chosen for the research project provided a framework for a qualitative study of one ethnic group of breast cancer patients. However, the research framework failed to allow comparisons between breast and cervical cancer patients from the same ethnic backgrounds. Therefore, although the research findings revealed determinants affecting black breast cancer treatments, they do not explain the discrepancy between absconding rates of black cervical and breast cancer patients.     

A phase II study of docetaxel in patients with paclitaxel-resistant metastatic breast cancer

PURPOSE: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of docetaxel in patients with paclitaxel-resistant metastatic breast cancer (MBC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Docetaxel (100 mg/m2) was administered every 3 weeks to 46 patients registered at four centers. Patients had previously received < or = two chemotherapy regimens for MBC. All patients had progressive disease while receiving paclitaxel therapy. Treatment was repeated until there was evidence of disease progression or for a maximum of three cycles after best response. RESULTS: Objective responses were seen in eight of 44 assessable patients (18.1%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 6.7% to 29.5%). Seven patients had partial responses and one patient responded completely. Response rates were not significantly different by previously received paclitaxel dose or resistance. No responses were seen in 12 patients who had previously received paclitaxel by 24-hour infusion, but the response rate in 32 patients who had received paclitaxel by 1- to 3-hour infusion was 25%. The median response duration was 29 weeks and the median time to disease progression was 10 weeks. Median survival was 10.5 months. Clinically significant (severe) adverse events included neutropenic fever (24% of patients), asthenia (22%), infection (13%), stomatitis (9%), neurosensory changes (7%), myalgia (7%), and diarrhea (7%). CONCLUSION: Docetaxel is active in patients with paclitaxel-resistant breast cancer, particularly in those who failed to respond to brief infusions of paclitaxel. Response rates were comparable to or better than those seen with other therapies for patients with paclitaxel-resistant MBC. This confirms preclinical studies, which indicated only partial cross-resistance between paclitaxel and docetaxel.     

Mammography versus clinical examination of the breasts

Using published data from screening trials, this article compares two-modality (mammography and clinical examination) and single-modality (clinical examination alone) screening by evaluating cancer detection rates, program sensitivities, mode of cancer detection in two-modality screening, nodal status at time of detection, survival 10 years post-diagnosis, and breast cancer mortality 10 years after entry. Consistently, two-modality screening achieved higher cancer detection rates and program sensitivity estimates than either modality alone; mammography alone achieved higher rates than clinical examination alone; interval cancer detection rates between screening examinations were higher following clinical examination alone than mammography alone; single-modality screening with mammography failed to detect breast cancers identified by clinical examination alone; the sensitivity of mammography was lower in younger than older women, while the reverse was true for clinical examination; and mammography identified a higher proportion of node-negative breast cancer than clinical examination. We conclude that combining clinical breast examination with mammography is desirable for women age 40-49 because mammography is less sensitive in younger than older women. Careful training and monitoring are, however, as essential with clinical examiners as with mammographers.     

Endoscopic surveillance of Barrett's esophagus: a cost-effectiveness comparison with mammographic surveillance for breast cancer

OBJECTIVE: Endoscopic surveillance of Barrett's esophagus is commonly practiced to detect malignancy in an early and curable stage. However, the cost-effectiveness of this practice has been questioned. To clarify this issue, we undertook a cost analysis of endoscopic surveillance to detect adenocarcinoma in Barrett's esophagus compared with mammography used to detect occult carcinoma of the breast, a widely accepted cancer surveillance technique. METHODS: The rate of esophageal adenocarcinoma detected by endoscopic surveillance was calculated for Duluth Clinic patients with Barrett's esophagus seen from 1980 to 1995 and compared with published rates. The rate of occult breast cancer detection was calculated for all women undergoing surveillance mammography at the Duluth Clinic for the year 1994 and compared with published rates. Costs for screening studies and therapy for cancer treatment for both cancers were calculated based on clinical results and assumptions regarding outcomes derived from published reports, and the costs were compared. RESULTS: Endoscopic surveillance of 149 patients with benign Barrett's esophagus was performed for a total of 510 patient-yr, during which time seven patients developed adenocarcinoma, an incidence of one case per 73 patient-yr of follow-up. Occult breast cancer was detected in 50 of 12,537 mammograms, a detection rate of 0.4%. The incidences in both cases were comparable to published figures. The costs of detecting a case of adenocarcinoma in Barrett's esophagus and occult breast cancer were $37,928 and $54,513, respectively, and those for treatment resulting in cure were $83,340 and $83,292. Cost per life-yr saved was $4,151 for adenocarcinoma in Barrett's esophagus and $57,926 for breast cancer. CONCLUSION: Endoscopic surveillance of patients with Barrett's esophagus compares favorably with the common practice of surveillance mammography to detect early breast cancer, and should therefore be considered to be as cost-effective as surveillance mammography.     

Markov models of breast tumor progression: some age-specific results

Researchers have noted that mammographic screening has a reduced effect on breast cancer mortality in women in their forties compared to older women. Explanations for this include poorer sensitivity in younger women due to denser breast tissue, as well as more rapid tumor progression, giving a shorter mean sojourn time (the average duration of the preclinical screen-detectable period). To test these hypotheses, we developed a series of Markov-chain models to estimate tumor progression rates and sensitivity. Parameters were estimated using tumor data from the Swedish two-county trial of mammographic screening for breast cancer. The mean sojourn time was shorter in women aged 40-49 compared to women aged 50-59 and 60-69 (2.44, 3.70, and 4.17 years, respectively). Sensitivity was lower in the 40-49 age group compared to the two older groups (83%, 100%, and 100%, respectively). Thus, both rapid progression and poorer sensitivity are associated with the 40-49 age group. We also modeled tumor size, node status, and malignancy grade together with subsequent breast cancer mortality and found that, to achieve a reduction in mortality commensurate with that in women over 50, the interscreening interval for women in their forties should be less than two years. We conclude that Markov models and the use of tumor size, node status, and malignancy grade as surrogates for mortality can be useful in design and analysis of future studies of breast cancer screening.