Cross-project software defect prediction based onmulti-source data sets

Cross-project defect prediction (CPDP) uses one or more source projects to build a defect prediction model and applies the model to the target project. There is usually a big difference between the data distribution of the source project and the target project, which makes it difficult to construct an effective defect prediction model. In order to alleviate the problem of negative migration between the source project and the target project in CPDP, this paper proposes an integrated transfer adaptive boosting (TrAdaBoost) algorithm based on multi-source data sets (MSITrA). The algorithm uses an existing two-stage data filtering algorithm to obtain source project data related to the target project from multiple source items, and then uses the integrated TrAdaBoost algorithm proposed in the paper to build a CPDP model. The experimental results of Promise's 15 public data sets show that: 1) The cross-project software defect prediction model proposed in this paper has better performance in all tested CPDP methods; 2) In the within-project software defect prediction (WPDP) experiment, the proposed CPDP method has achieved the better experimental results than the tested WPDP method.     

一种动态电源管理预测算法的设计及仿真

针对基于马尔可夫模型的预测式动态电源管理算法（DPMPA）对大型样本数据预测精度低的问题,提出了一种具备自反馈功能的内嵌式马尔可夫模型（RMM）的DPMPA。该算法基于分层迭代思想,对满足马尔可夫性质的大型数据进行聚类,再使用马尔可夫算法对构建出的迭代数据模型：上层抽象数据模型和底层实例数据模型进行训练。引入反馈函数φ（i）,控制转换概率矩阵更新频率,保证预测精度范围。依此,编制了自反馈内嵌式马尔可夫模型DPMPA的Matlab程序。应用该程序对无线热点访问次数进行仿真预测,得出不同训练样本数对后期样本的预测精度的影响,对比马尔可夫算法和自适应学习树（ALT）算法预测结果表明,基于该自反馈RMM预测式动态电源管理算法对于大型样本数据预测精度比前者高5%,后者高10%。预测精确度的提高,将更有利于马尔可夫算法的DPM系统功耗控制。     

基于PSO-SWELM的应变传感器在线温度补偿方法

针对光纤布拉格光栅(Fiber Bragg Grating,FBG)应变传感器受环境温度影响而造成的波长漂移问题,提出粒子群优化(Particle Swarm Optimization,PSO)结合滑动窗口极限学习机(Sliding Window Extreme Learning Machine,SWELM)的在线预测算法对其进行温度补偿。利用PSO算法优化SWELM网络滑动窗口和隐含层神经元数目,提升了模型的预测精度,模型预测均方根误差最小能达到0.06pm。PSO-SWELM实现了对应变传感器数据的在线更新及波长漂移预测,对实时测量数据和预测数据进行差分运算完成温度补偿。与SWELM的对比分析结果表明,PSO-SWELM算法的预测精度平均提升了11.04%,并具有良好的温度补偿效果。     

Adaptive Algorithm of Tracking the Best Experts Trajectory

The problem of decision theoretic online learning is discussed. There is the set of methods, experts, and algorithms capable of making solutions (or predictions) and suffering losses due to the inaccuracy of their solutions. An adaptive algorithm whereby expert solutions are aggregated and sustained losses not exceeding (to a certain quantity called a regret) those of the best combination of experts distributed over the prediction interval is proposed. The algorithm is constructed using the Fixed-Share method combined with the Ada-Hedge algorithm used to exponentially weight expert solutions. The regret of the proposed algorithm is estimated. In the context of the given approach, there are no any stochastic assumptions about an initial data source and the boundedness of losses. The results of numerical experiments concerning the mixing of expert solutions with the help of the proposed algorithm are presented. The strategies of games on financial markets, which were suggested in our previous papers, play the role of expert strategies.     

Mining three-dimensional anthropometric body surface scanning data for hypertension detection.

Hypertension is a major disease, being one of the top ten causes of death in Taiwan. The exploration of three-dimensional (3-D) anthropometry scanning data along with other existing subject medical profiles using data mining techniques becomes an important research issue for medical decision support. This research attempts to construct a prediction model for hypertension using anthropometric body surface scanning data. This research adopts classification trees to reveal the relationship between a subject's 3-D scanning data and hypertension disease using the hybrid of the association rule algorithm (ARA) and genetic algorithms (GAs) approach. The ARA is adopted to obtain useful clues based on which the GA is able to proceed its searching tasks in a more efficient way. The proposed approach was experimented and compared with a regular genetic algorithm in predicting a subject's hypertension disease. Better computational efficiency and more accurate prediction results from the proposed approach are demonstrated.     

Universal linear prediction by model order weighting

A common problem that arises in adaptive filtering, autoregressive modeling, or linear prediction is the selection of an appropriate order for the underlying linear parametric model. We address this problem for linear prediction, but instead of fixing a specific model order, we develop a sequential prediction algorithm whose sequentially accumulated average squared prediction error for any bounded individual sequence is as good as the performance attainable by the best sequential linear predictor of order less than some M. This predictor is found by transforming linear prediction into a problem analogous to the sequential probability assignment problem from universal coding theory. The resulting universal predictor uses essentially a performance-weighted average of all predictors for model orders less than M. Efficient lattice filters are used to generate the predictions of all the models recursively, resulting in a complexity of the universal algorithm that is no larger than that of the largest model order. Examples of prediction performance are provided for autoregressive and speech data as well as an example of adaptive data equalization     

基于在线更新LSTM网络的短期4D航迹预测算法

航班飞行过程中一些因素会对当前飞行轨迹产生影响,从而导致实时航迹与历史航迹相比有一定的差异,使得仅基于历史航迹数据的航迹预测模型的预测性能变差.为解决该问题,提出了一种基于在线更新长短期记忆(Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM)网络的短期4D航迹预测算法,该算法由基于历史航迹数据的预测模型初始化参数...     

Epileptic seizure prediction using hybrid feature selection over multiple intracranial EEG electrode contacts: a report of four patients

Epileptic seizure prediction has steadily evolved from its conception in the 1970s, to proof-of-principle experiments in the late 1980s and 1990s, to its current place as an area of vigorous, clinical and laboratory investigation. As a step toward practical implementation of this technology in humans, we present an individualized method for selecting electroencephalogram (EEG) features and electrode locations for seizure prediction focused on precursors that occur within ten minutes of electrographic seizure onset. This method applies an intelligent genetic search process to EEG signals simultaneously collected from multiple intracranial electrode contacts and multiple quantitative features derived from these signals. The algorithm is trained on a series of baseline and preseizure records and then validated on other, previously unseen data using split sample validation techniques. The performance of this method is demonstrated on multiday recordings obtained from four patients implanted with intracranial electrodes during evaluation for epilepsy surgery. An average probability of prediction (or block sensitivity) of 62.5% was achieved in this group, with an average block false positive (FP) rate of 0.2775 FP predictions/h, corresponding to 90.47% specificity. These findings are presented as an example of a method for training, testing and validating a seizure prediction system on data from individual patients. Given the heterogeneity of epilepsy, it is likely that methods of this type will be required to configure intelligent devices for treating epilepsy to each individual's neurophysiology prior to clinical deployment.     

Multitarget state and track estimation for the probability hypotheses density filter

The particle Probability Hypotheses Density (particle-PHD) filter is a tractable approach for Random Finite Set (RFS) Bayes estimation, but the particle-PHD filter can not directly derive the target track. Most existing approaches combine the data association step to solve this problem. This paper proposes an algorithm which does not need the association step. Our basic ideal is based on the clustering algorithm of Finite Mixture Models (FMM). The intensity distribution is first derived by the particle-PHD filter, and then the clustering algorithm is applied to estimate the multitarget states and tracks jointly. The clustering process includes two steps: the prediction and update. The key to the proposed algorithm is to use the prediction as the initial points and the convergent points as the estimates. Besides, Expectation-Maximization (EM) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches are used for the FMM parameter estimation.     

FRR for latency reduction and QoS provisioning in OBS networks

We propose a forward resource reservation (FRR) scheme to reduce the data burst delay at edge nodes in optical burst switching (OBS) systems. We also explore algorithms to implement the various intrinsic features of the FRR scheme. Linear predictive filter (LPF)-based methods are investigated and demonstrated to be effective for dynamic burst-length prediction. An aggressive resource reservation algorithm is proposed to deliver a significant performance improvement with controllable bandwidth cost. By reserving resources in an aggressive manner, an FRR system can reduce both the signaling retransmission probability and the bandwidth wastage as compared with a system without the aggressive reservation. An FRR-based QoS strategy is also proposed to achieve burst delay differentiation for different classes of traffic. Theoretical analysis and simulation results verify the feasibility of the proposed algorithms and show that our FRR scheme yields a significant delay reduction for time-critical traffic without incurring a deleterious bandwidth overhead.     

声发射信号诊断的膝盖骨性关节炎

针对目前膝盖骨性关节炎(OA)发病率高,传统的诊断方法缺乏便携性,价格贵,存在放射性危害等局限性。该文提出了一种基于遗传算法优化BP神经网络的膝盖OA诊断。该方法以健康组和患病组为研究对象,将采集到的声发射(AE)信号通过遗传优化算法得到BP网络的最佳初始权值和阈值,利用BP神经网络对AE信号进行诊断分类。经实验室建立的膝盖OA声发射数据库的实验结果表明,该诊断方法效果好,误差小,能对膝盖OA患者进行实时检测和早期预测,具有临床价值。     

网络安全态势的云预测

针对现有网络安全态势预测算法存在的主观因素影响较大、预测结果与选取数据关联程度较高的情况,以云的网络安全态势预测规则挖掘算法为基础,提出了一个改进算法。该改进算法不仅拥有原挖掘算法无需对初始数据进行预先处理的优点,同时避免了预测规则与实际情况相孤立造成预测错误的情况,并通过实验验证了算法的可行性和有效性。基于云的网络安全态势预测改进算法,有效地提高了网络安全态势预测的准确性。     

Minimum error entropy estimation and entropic prediction filtering: An optimal predictive coding scheme

The minimum error entropy (MEE) estimation problem on discrete, finite, or countably infinite ensembles of arbitrary statistical nature is considered. A combinatorial approach is taken to solve the minimization problem. The solution is obtained in algorithmic form. The numerical complexity of the MEE algorithm is analyzed. An entropic prediction filtering (EPF) coding scheme that utilizes the MEE algorithm to minimize the per symbol error entropy is introduced. Simulation has shown that the EPF can effectively be used to reduce the average codeword length required to encode data. Other applications of the MEE algorithm in signal interpolation and extrapolation are also discussed.     

基于生物免疫优化支持向量机算法的居民区负荷预测

针对居民区用电负荷随机性强、稳定性差等问题,综合考虑各因素对居民用电负荷的影响,提出一种免疫支持向量机(support vector machine,SVM)算法负荷预测模型。以居民区历史用电量及相关气候数据为处理对象,使用PCA(principal component analysis)算法对电网历史数据进行处理,并结合免疫算法对电网历史数据进行预处理,形成数据簇并划定标签提供给预测模型进行训练。为提高模型精度,采用生物免疫优化算法对SVM模型参数进行优化,并在负荷预测环节,将预测误差作为调优依据,对预测模型进行反馈调优。将预测效果与常用于负荷预测的BP(back propagation)神经网络、SVM算法模型进行对比,免疫SVM算法负荷预测模型的短期、中期预测精准度均在98%以上,具有较好的精度与鲁棒性。     

基于混沌理论与改进回声状态网络的网络流量多步预测

网络流量预测是网络管理及网络拥塞控制的重要问题,针对该问题提出一种基于混沌理论与改进回声状态网络的网络流量预测方法。首先利用0-1混沌测试法与最大Lyapunov指数法对不同时间尺度下的网络流量样本数据进行分析,确定网络流量在不同时间尺度下都具有混沌特性。将相空间重构技术引入网络流量预测,通过C-C方法确定延迟时间,G-P算法确定嵌入维数。对网络流量时间序列进行相空间重构之后,利用一种改进的回声状态网络进行网络流量的多步预测。提出一种改进的和声搜索优化算法对回声状态网络的相关参数进行优化以提高预测精度。利用网络流量的公共数据集以及实际数据进行了仿真,结果表明,提出的预测方法具有更高的预测精度以及更小的预测误差。     

Universal prediction of individual sequences

The problem of predicting the next outcome of an individual binary sequence using finite memory is considered. The finite-state predictability of an infinite sequence is defined as the minimum fraction of prediction errors that can be made by any finite-state (FS) predictor. It is proven that this FS predictability can be achieved by universal sequential prediction schemes. An efficient prediction procedure based on the incremental parsing procedure of the Lempel-Ziv data compression algorithm is shown to achieve asymptotically the FS predictability. Some relations between compressibility and predictability are discussed, and the predictability is proposed as an additional measure of the complexity of a sequence     

一种适合硬件实现的H.264/AVC宏块级码率控制算法

主要针对H.264/AVC编码器硬件实现时的特点,提出了一种适合硬件实现的高效码率控制方案。为了提高数据处理效率,硬件编码器通常采用Zigzag宏块编码顺序和宏块级流水结构,两者结合会产生复杂的数据依赖关系。在数据依赖存在的条件下,提出了利用时域和空域相关性预测帧级和宏块级平均绝对误差(MAD),提高预测精度获取合适的量化参数。实验结果显示与G012算法相比,该算法提高了MAD预测精度,平均PSNR提高了0.12 dB,解决了硬件实现时的数据依赖问题。     

Association rule discovery with the train and test approach for heart disease prediction.

Association rules represent a promising technique to improve heart disease prediction. Unfortunately, when association rules are applied on a medical data set, they produce an extremely large number of rules. Most of such rules are medically irrelevant and the time required to find them can be impractical. A more important issue is that, in general, association rules are mined on the entire data set without validation on an independent sample. To solve these limitations, we introduce an algorithm that uses search constraints to reduce the number of rules, searches for association rules on a training set, and finally validates them on an independent test set. The medical significance of discovered rules is evaluated with support, confidence, and lift. Association rules are applied on a real data set containing medical records of patients with heart disease. In medical terms, association rules relate heart perfusion measurements and risk factors to the degree of disease in four specific arteries. Search constraints and test set validation significantly reduce the number of association rules and produce a set of rules with high predictive accuracy. We exhibit important rules with high confidence, high lift, or both, that remain valid on the test set on several runs. These rules represent valuable medical knowledge.     

基于 AdaBoost 的链路预测优化算法

针对当前主流的基于网络拓扑结构的链路预测算法普遍存在召回率较低的问题,研究发现一些算法输出的结果中部分正确结果具有互补性,据此采用基于Boosting的集成学习方法对其进行改进。按照网络中节点之间是否存在链接关系,将链路预测问题定义为二分类问题,进一步遵循算法互补的原则选择若干具有代表性的链路预测算法作为弱分类器,基于AdaBoost算法提出并实现了一个新型链路预测算法。在arXiv论文合作网络和电子邮件网络等真实数据集上的实验结果表明,该算法的准确率以及召回率表现均显著优于当前的主流算法。     

A tight upper bound on the gain of linear and nonlinear predictorsfor stationary stochastic processes

One of the striking questions in prediction theory is this: is there a chance to predict future values of a given signal? Usually, we design a predictor for a special signal or problem and then measure the resulting prediction quality. If there is no a priori knowledge on the optimal predictor, the achieved prediction gain will depend strongly of the prediction model used. To cope with this lack of knowledge, a theorem on the maximum achievable prediction gain of stationary signals is presented. This theorem provides the foundation for estimating a quality goal for the predictor design, independent of a special predictor implementation (linear or nonlinear). As usual, the prediction gain is based on the mean square error (MSE) of the predicted signal. The achievable maximum of the prediction gain is calculated using an information theoretic quantity known as the mutual information. In order to obtain the gain, we use a nonparametric approach to estimate the maximum prediction gain based on the observation of one specific signal. We illustrate this by means of well-known example signals and show an application to load forecasting. An estimation algorithm for the prediction gain has been implemented and used in the experimental part of the paper