Judging online peer-to-peer lending behavior: A comparison of first-time and repeated borrowing requests

The past decade has witnessed a growing number of business models that facilitate economic exchanges between individuals with limited institutional mediation. One of the important innovative business models is online peer-to-peer lending, which has received wide attention from government, industry, and researchers. Using the signaling theory, we compare the effects of various signals on the likelihood of successful funding in three models (i.e., first-time borrowing, repeated borrowing without prior lending, and repeated borrowing with prior lending). Using data collected from PPDAI.com, we verify the three proposed models by employing logistic regression. Results and implications are analyzed and discussed.     

Game Theoretic Modeling of Economic Systems and the European Debt Crisis

A game theoretic model of six kinds of players is analyzed, i.e. countries, central banks, banks, firms, households, and financial inter-governmental organizations. Each player has a strategy set, with strategies such as setting interest rates, lending, borrowing, producing, consuming, investing, importing, exporting, defaulting, and penalizing default. Markets for goods, debt, and capital are modeled endogenously. This conceptualization of strategic opportunities for as many as six types of players is richer than anything that has been attempted earlier. 2005–2011 empirical data for Greece is used to analyze how utility is impacted by public consumption and lump sum transfers, and negative productivity shocks, and to analyze equilibrium over several time periods with and without the possibility of default. 2007–2008 empirical data for Greece and Germany is used to determine how the two countries’ utilities depend on Greece’s public 2007 consumption, with and without negative productivity shocks. Greece’s high debt burden is shown to make default optimal when productivity shocks are large and the default penalty is small. We find that Germany has limited ability, through its available strategies, to prevent a Greek default, and may need to resort to unconventional tools such as debt forgiveness and changing the default penalty.     

聚类分析在高校图书馆管理中的应用

收集图书流通数据并对收集数据进行预处理,采用SPSS Clementine软件的两步聚类模型.以班级和科室为单位,对读者的借阅次数进行聚类分析,得出借阅频率信息,把读者分成借阅频率较高、一般和较低3个类型,为图书馆个性化服务提供了基础.实验结果验证明了该方法的有效性和可行性,提出改进图书馆管理工作的建议.     

Central banking in a transitory economy: an adaptive control model for India

The purpose of this paper is to formulate a policy model for the Indian economy, incorporating an expectation generating mechanism in a formal way. The aim is to see how policies will change over time when the expectation of the private sector is changing. In a mixed economy planning has to take into account how the private sector formulates and revises its expectation regarding various government policies and their possible impacts on the endogenous variables (or target variables) in the economy. Normally in an economy like India's the government formulates its plan for the public sector over the next five years. The government can regulate the private sector by various means, such as licences, investment quotas, tax-subsidy rates, bank interest rates and by various monetary controls. The private sector, knowing the targets of the government, formulates its own expectations regarding the fulfulments of the targets (because it never expects that the government can fulfil its targets exactly) and possible movements of various policies. It behaves according to its expectations and realization of past expectations and thus allocates its resources. So the optimum design of public policies should be to direct the private sectors towards the desired goals defined by the planners, taking into account the reactions of the private sector. The purpose of public policy in such an environment should be to formulate different central bank policies regarding money stock, credit expansion and components of the money multiplier along with government discount rate, and the exchange rate so that the private sector would react in the desired way, given the goals set by the planners regarding national income, balance of payments, domestic absorptions and prices.     

资源受限的多Agent系统通信研究

在部分可观察环境中,Agent需要知识共享完成分布式合作.在资源受限的条件下,不加选择的通信会因为消耗有用的带宽产生性能瓶颈.因此,在资源受限的系统中需要在通信效用和通信代价之间进行适当的折衷.通过对无线网络通信方法的研究,基于信息冗余的思想讨论了多Agent系统的通信问题,提出了选择性信息交换算法,保证了Agent之间必要时的通信,以此来提高合作的效率.     

Visual analysis of risks in peer-to-peer lending market

Online peer-to-peer (P2P) lending financial products have been developing rapidly in recent years. This investment method is designed for people free of high-rate debts. However, the lending and borrowing affairs between anonymities may potentially produce risks, including wash sale and money laundering. Apart from the well-documented research on the causal factors and economic influence of the P2P lending market, limited attention has been paid to the risk management of individual P2P lending platforms. This study presents a visual analysis method that detects and analyzes risks in P2P lending transactions. Moreover, we evaluate our approach on real-world P2P data sets and report our findings.     

Technical note Temporal remote sensing data and GIS application in landslide hazard zonation of part of Western ghat,India

Spatial and temporal multi-layered information is required to assess landslide hazard susceptibility. The manual method of data integration for targeting potential zones susceptible to landslide hazard is time consuming. The present study highlights the utility of temporal remotely-sensed data and knowledgebased Geographical Information Systems for collection, integration and analysis of spatially-oriented data, as well as in finding out the inherent relation between separate entities in parts of West ghat in India.     

基于VB高校图书管理系统

高校图书管理系统是用Visual Basic6.0开发出来的,主要应用于高校图书馆图书管理系统。本论文主要阐述图书馆图书管理系统的设计思想和实现技术。该系统将使用者分为系统管理员、操作员和一般读者三大类。系统管理员维护系统的正常运行和系统设置,操作员进行借还书业务,一般读者只可查询图书信息。     

基于VB高校图书管理系统

高校图书管理系统是用Visual Basic6．0开发出来的,主要应用于高校图书馆图书管理系统。本论文主要阐述图书馆图书管理系统的设计思想和实现技术。该系统将使用者分为系统管理员、操作员和一般读者三大类。系统管理员维护系统的正常运行和系统设置,操作员进行借还书业务,一般读者只可查询图书信息。     

注意力经济与网络

随着信息的爆炸式增长,我们面临着如何选择的难题,这其实是我们的注意力缺乏的一个信号。我们有限的注意力已经无法抵挡大量信息汹涌而来。物以稀为贵,日渐缺乏的注意力便催生了一种新的经济形式—注意力经济,这种经济正在到来。注意力经济促使了隐式网络的出现。人们的注意力正在被这些网站收集和使用没有意识到,AttentionTrust制定的规则试图改变这一现状。注意力经济的发展还面临诸多挑战,但终将取代旧经济。     

基于LASSO回归模型的网贷借款成功影响因素挖掘

随着P2P网络借贷交易量的增大,对P2P交易数据的挖掘和分析备受关注,其中一项重要的研究课题是网络借款成功率的影响因素分析.现有的文献多采用线性回归方法对该课题进行研究,但未考虑变量之间的多重共线性和采用最优变量子集建立回归模型的问题.本文采用Lasso回归方法,建立最优变量子集的回归模型对影响网络借款成功率的因素进行分析,避免了多重共线性问题对模型的干扰,同时提高了模型对数据的拟合精度.对Lending Club平台的借贷数据的实证分析结果显示,本文方法在模型的拟合精度和避免共线性方面优于对比方法.     

基于RFID的光盘管理系统研究

RFID技术在新一代智能化管理系统中有着重要作用,在图书馆图书、光盘管理中有着极其广泛的应用前景,本文主要研究了基于RFID技术的智能化光盘管理系统。     

Analysis of two-tier public service systems under a government subsidy policy

Some public service systems such as healthcare systems consist of both free public service provider with a long wait time and paid private service provider with a short wait time. Such service systems are often called a two-tier service system. In general, more customers will choose the free service provider (SP). To reduce the congestion in the free system, the government may encourage customers to use the pay system by offering them a subsidy. This paper studies whether such a subsidy can reduce the free system’s waiting time and improves the social welfare. While the objective of the free system is to maximize its own total customers’ utility, the objective of the pay system is to maximize its profit. We develop a mixed duopoly game to analyze the Nash equilibrium for the competition between the free and toll systems. Two scenarios with unregulated and regulated prices are considered. When the pay system price is unregulated (the private SP can set prices freely), we find that if customers are less sensitive to the service delay, the subsidy policy can effectively reduce the expected waiting time for the free system and increase the customer utility surplus of the entire two-tier system. However, if customers are more sensitive to the service delay, the subsidy policy may have the opposite effect. When the pay system price is regulated (the price determined by government), the subsidy policy can effectively reduce the expected waiting time for the free system and improve the social welfare of the two-tier system. And there exists an optimal regulated price to maximize the social welfare of the entire public service system.     

Realizable Utility Maximization as a Mechanism for the Stability of Competitive General Equilibrium in a Scarf Economy

A competitive general equilibrium (CGE) is a Pareto-optimal allocation, but it is not always stable under the mechanism of the tâtonnement process. How to drive an economy to the CGE and maintain its stability remains to be an issue with a high intellectual interest. In this article, using the celebrated counterexample of the Scarf economy, we first provide an intuitive and explicit explanation to analyze why the CGE is unstable under the tâtonnement process. Then a novel mechanism, called the realizable utility maximization mechanism (RUMM), is proposed in which the price of a product is adjusted not according to the excess demand as in the standard tâtonnement process, but according to the potential utility of the individuals owning the product. It is found that the RUMM can maintain the stability of the CGE even in the Scarf economy, and can shed light on the role of social learning in stabilizing the Scarf economy as we have learned from the literature of agent-based non-tâtonnement models.

     

电子商务与电子商务经济：概念与框架

作为一个新的概念,电子商务经济来自电子商务,但是却比其内涵更为丰富。为此,我们一方面要从信息化、参与主体、电子商务建设服务的供给与需求、产业属性等角度全面认识电子商务经济的基本属性,另一方面还要从物联网、云计算、大数据以及移动智能终端为主要代表的新一代信息技术去把握电子商务经济发展的最新特征。电子商务经济是以电子商务平台为核心,以电子商务应用需求、电子商务服务业为两翼,以新一代信息技术应用为支撑,包含众多信息消费内容的新型经济生态系统。电子商务经济是我国电子商务发展到一个相对成熟阶段的表现,也是新一代信息技术在我国经济信息化建设中得到深入应用的结果。电子商务经济正日益成为促进国民经济和社会发展信息化建设的主要力量。     

回归模型中哑变量的相对重要性指数

为在回归模型中描述定性属性,通常需要引入哑变量。对含哑变量的回归方程,提出描述不同哑变量在回归方程中不同重要程度的方法。该方法分解出含哑变量的回归方程中哑变量部分和非哑变量部分的回归平方和,计算这两部分在该回归方程中所起作用的占比,将该占比设计为各哑变量在回归方程中的相对重要程度指数。在近10万笔的Lending Club和Prosper网络借贷数据集上,所进行的挖掘借款用途对借款成功率、信用等级对借款利率的影响程度的实验结果表明,与传统回归方程仅提供哑变量前的系数却不能展现其重要程度相比,所提方法展现出不同哑变量的不同重要程度,为定量分析回归方程中定性自变量对因变量的影响程度提供了重要的手段。     

企业构建运用CRM提升销售业绩

企业收入的源头是销售工作,企业发展最重要的资源是客户。随着信息技术革命的推进,知识经济、网络经济的迅猛发展加速了知识的传递、加工及更新。时代的发展竞争的加剧使企业之间产品的差别越来越小,企业从争夺“市场份额’’逐渐转变为争夺‘‘客户份额”,顾客忠诚度成为企业竞争力的重要体现,如何管理客户关系、培养长期优质的客户资源,是获取并保持企业竞争优势及提高销售业绩的战略实施重要组成部分。     

以可存品与非可存品为消费对象的最优投资消费决策

传统的投资消费决策问题考虑的消费对象局限于单一的非可存品或者单一的可存品 .而且假定银行的贷款利率等于存款利率 .本文假定银行的贷款利率大于存款利率 ,并且投资者的消费对象为包含可存品与非可存品的组合 .可存品的价格假设服从几何布朗运动 ,它的折旧率假定为一个常值 .应用随机控制方法 ,得到等弹性效用函数情形下的最优投资消费策略的显式表达     

Integrating Travel Delays, Road Safety, Care, Vehicle Insurance and Cost-Benefit Analysis of Road Capacity Expansion in a Unified Framework

Assuming that both road safety and travel time are a function of traffic density and care from a driver’s standpoint, a theoretical framework is developed. First, an expected-utility framework is developed to study the optimal choice of care by a rational driver. Second, the subjective value of traffic density is derived as a measure of drivers’ willingness to pay for simultaneous road safety improvements and travel time savings. Third, the above results are revisited when car insurance is available. Fourth, a simple cost-benefit analysis rule of road capacity expansion is derived when moral hazard is present.     

Who can get money? Evidence from the Chinese peer-to-peer lending platform

This paper explores how borrowers’ financial and personal information, loan characteristics and lending models affect peer-to-peer (P2P) loan funding outcomes. Using a large sample of listings from one of the largest Chinese online P2P lending platforms, we find that those borrowers earning a higher income or who own a car are more likely to receive a loan, pay lower interest rates, and are less likely to default. The credit grade assigned by the lending platform may not represent the creditworthiness of potential borrowers. We also find that the unique offline process in the Chinese P2P online lending platform exerts significant influence on the lending decision. We discuss the implications of our results for the design of big data-based lending markets.