Climate change induced salinisation of artificial lakes in the Netherlands and consequences for drinking water production

In this paper we present a modelling study to investigate the impacts of climate change on the chloride concentration and salinisation processes in two man-made freshwater lakes in the Netherlands, Lake IJsselmeer and Lake Markermeer. We used a transient compartmental chloride and water balance model to elucidate the salinisation processes occurring under present conditions and assess future salinisation under two climate forcing scenarios. The model results showed that the Rhine River is the dominant determinant for the chloride concentration in both lakes, followed by drainage of brackish groundwater from the surrounding polders. The results further show that especially during dry years, seawater intrusion through the tidal closure dam is an important source of chloride to Lake IJsselmeer. The results from the climatic forcing scenarios show that Lake IJsselmeer is especially vulnerable to climate-induced salinisation whereas effects on Lake Markermeer are relatively small. Peak chloride concentrations at the raw water intake of the Andijk drinking water facility on Lake IJsselmeer are projected to increase to values above 250 mg/l in the most far-reaching climate change scenario W+ in 2050 for dry years. This is well above the maximum allowable concentration of 150 mg/l for chloride in drinking water.Modelling showed that climate change impacts the chloride concentrations in a variety of ways: 1) an increasing occurrence of low river flows from summer to autumn reduces the dilution of the chloride that is emitted to the Rhine with a constant load thereby increasing its concentration; 2) increased open water evaporation and reduced rainfall during summer periods and droughts increases the chloride concentration in the water; and 3) rises in sea level increase seawater intrusion through the tidal closure dam of Lake IJsselmeer. The processes described here are likely to affect many other tidal rivers or lakes and should be considered when planning future raw water intake stations for drinking water production or agricultural water supply.     

Strategies to lower methyl mercury concentrations in hydroelectric reservoirs and lakes: A review

Mercury (Hg) concentrations in fish in lakes are elevated due to increased global cycling of Hg. A special case of elevated Hg concentrations in fish occurs in new hydroelectric reservoirs because of increased rates of converting Hg in the environment into methyl mercury (MeHg). People and wildlife that eat fish from hydroelectric reservoirs have an elevated risk of accumulating too much MeHg. Demand for electrical energy is leading to the creation of new reservoirs. In 2005, Canada derived 60% of its electricity from hydroelectric reservoirs. As a result, hydroelectric companies and governing agencies are exploring strategies to lower MeHg contamination. Strategies may involve lowering the source of Hg before flooding, the rate of Hg methylation, or MeHg bioaccumulation and biomagnification. Possible strategies reviewed in this article include selecting a site to minimize impacts, intensive fishing, adding selenium, adding lime to acidic systems, burning before flooding, removing standing trees, adding phosphorus, demethylating MeHg by ultraviolet light, capping and dredging bottom sediment, aerating anoxic bottom sediment and waters, and water level management. A preventative strategy is to limit the flooded area, especially wetland areas. Flooded upland areas that contain less carbon produce MeHg for a shorter time than wetland areas. Run-of-the-river reservoirs contain lower MeHg concentrations than reservoirs that flood vast areas, at the cost of exporting MeHg downstream. Managing water levels to flush systems during times of peak MeHg production may have benefits for the reservoir, but also transports MeHg downstream. Intensive fishing can lower MeHg in food webs by increasing fish growth rate. Additions of selenium can lower MeHg bioaccumulation, but the mechanisms are not well established and excess selenium causes toxicity. Liming can lower fish Hg concentrations in lakes acidified with sulphuric and nitric acid. Burning before flooding can lower the production of MeHg, but MeHg bioaccumulation may increase. The most promising strategy will be one that is agreeable to all affected people.     

Total and methyl mercury transformations and mass loadings within a wastewater treatment plant and the impact of the effluent discharge to an alkaline hypereutrophic lake

Concerns over the fate and bioaccumulation of mercury (Hg) inputs to Onondaga Lake, a hypereutrophic lake in central New York, prompted an investigation into the concentrations and fluxes of Hg discharge from the Onondaga County Metropolitan Wastewater Treatment Plant (METRO WWTP). Discharge of methyl Hg (MeHg) is of concern because it is the form of Hg that readily bioaccumulates along the aquatic food chain. This study incorporated clean protocols for sampling and Hg analysis to evaluate: seasonal patterns in the concentrations of total Hg (THg) and MeHg in the WWTP unit processes; the production of MeHg within the unit processes of the WWTP; the overall fate of THg and MeHg within the WWTP; and the relative impact of the Hg discharged from the WWTP to Onondaga Lake. Concentrations of THg (range: 80-860 ng/L) and MeHg (0.7-17 ng/L) in raw sewage were highly variable, with higher concentrations observed in the summer months. The dynamics of THg though the WWTP were correlated with total suspended solids (TSS). As a result, the majority of the THg removal (55%) occurred during primary treatment. Overall, about 92% of the THg entering the plant was removed as sludge, with volatilization likely a minor component of the overall Hg budget. The transformation of MeHg through the plant differed from THg in that MeHg was not correlated with TSS, and displayed strong seasonal differences between winter (November to April) and summer (May-October) months. During the summer months, substantial net methylation occurred in the activated sludge secondary treatment, resulting in higher MeHg concentrations in secondary effluent. Net demethylation was the dominant mechanism during tertiary treatment, resulting in removal of substantial MeHg from the secondary effluent. The overall MeHg removal efficiency through the plant was about 70% with more efficient removal during summer months. Sediment trap collections made below the epilimnion of Onondaga Lake indicated average deposition rates of 12 μg/m²-day for THg and 0.33 μg/m²-day for MeHg. These deposition rates are more than an order of magnitude higher than the thermocline area normalized external loads from METRO effluent (0.85 μg/m²-day for THg, 0.05 μg/m²-day for MeHg). Our findings indicate that the impact of the discharge from METRO is relatively small, contributing about 10-15% of Hg to the total gross Hg input to the hypolimnion of the lake.     

Climate change impact: Mapping thermal stress on Carrara marble in Europe

The impact of climate change on monuments and historic buildings is addressed for the first time, in terms of modelling and predicting thermal stress on stone in Europe over the next century. While the effect of changing climate on frost in porous materials and on surface recession of carbonate stone, has recently been treated, prediction of the future evolution of thermal stress on stones still requires elucidation. The present paper provides maps showing future scenarios of thermal stress on Carrara marble for the 21st century, using the output data from the Hadley general and regional climate models in the European window.The work carried out made it possible to forecast in the near and far futures (i.e. 2010-2039, 2070-2099) the number of events per year of thermal stress in marble greater than 20 MPa, the latter being adopted as the maximum sustainable load for this specific material. The data demonstrate that the Mediterranean area will continue to experience the highest level of risk from thermal stress, with more than 300 events/year predicted in the 2070-2099 period. In addition, Central Europe will be more affected by thermal stress during the present century compared to the baseline period, 1961-1990, taken as reference.     

Climate impacts on European agriculture and water management in the context of adaptation and mitigation—The importance of an integrated approach

We review and qualitatively assess the importance of interactions and feedbacks in assessing climate change impacts on water and agriculture in Europe. We focus particularly on the impact of future hydrological changes on agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation and adaptation options. Future projected trends in European agriculture include northward movement of crop suitability zones and increasing crop productivity in Northern Europe, but declining productivity and suitability in Southern Europe. This may be accompanied by a widening of water resource differences between the North and South, and an increase in extreme rainfall events and droughts. Changes in future hydrology and water management practices will influence agricultural adaptation measures and alter the effectiveness of agricultural mitigation strategies. These interactions are often highly complex and influenced by a number of factors which are themselves influenced by climate. Mainly positive impacts may be anticipated for Northern Europe, where agricultural adaptation may be shaped by reduced vulnerability of production, increased water supply and reduced water demand. However, increasing flood hazards may present challenges for agriculture, and summer irrigation shortages may result from earlier spring runoff peaks in some regions. Conversely, the need for effective adaptation will be greatest in Southern Europe as a result of increased production vulnerability, reduced water supply and increased demands for irrigation. Increasing flood and drought risks will further contribute to the need for robust management practices.The impacts of future hydrological changes on agricultural mitigation in Europe will depend on the balance between changes in productivity and rates of decomposition and GHG emission, both of which depend on climatic, land and management factors. Small increases in European soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks per unit land area are anticipated considering changes in climate, management and land use, although an overall reduction in the total stock may result from a smaller agricultural land area. Adaptation in the water sector could potentially provide additional benefits to agricultural production such as reduced flood risk and increased drought resilience.The two main sources of uncertainty in climate impacts on European agriculture and water management are projections of future climate and their resulting impacts on water and agriculture. Since changes in climate, agricultural ecosystems and hydrometeorology depend on complex interactions between the atmosphere, biosphere and hydrological cycle there is a need for more integrated approaches to climate impacts assessments. Methods for assessing options which “moderate” the impact of agriculture in the wider sense will also need to consider cross-sectoral impacts and socio-economic aspects.     

A review of the impact of climate change on future nitrate concentrations in groundwater of the UK

This paper reviews the potential impacts of climate change on nitrate concentrations in groundwater of the UK using a Source-Pathway-Receptor framework. Changes in temperature, precipitation quantity and distribution, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations will affect the agricultural nitrate source term through changes in both soil processes and agricultural productivity. Non-agricultural source terms, such as urban areas and atmospheric deposition, are also expected to be affected. The implications for the rate of nitrate leaching to groundwater as a result of these changes are not yet fully understood but predictions suggest that leaching rate may increase under future climate scenarios. Climate change will affect the hydrological cycle with changes to recharge, groundwater levels and resources and flow processes. These changes will impact on concentrations of nitrate in abstracted water and other receptors, such as surface water and groundwater-fed wetlands. The implications for nitrate leaching to groundwater as a result of climate changes are not yet well enough understood to be able to make useful predictions without more site-specific data. The few studies which address the whole cycle show likely changes in nitrate leaching ranging from limited increases to a possible doubling of aquifer concentrations by 2100. These changes may be masked by nitrate reductions from improved agricultural practices, but a range of adaption measures need to be identified. Future impact may also be driven by economic responses to climate change.     

Mapping the impact of climate change on surface recession of carbonate buildings in Europe

Climate change is currently attracting interest at both research and policy levels. However, it is usually explored in terms of its effect on agriculture, water, industry, energy, transport and health and as yet has been insufficiently addressed as a factor threatening cultural heritage. Among the climate parameters critical to heritage conservation and expected to change in the future, precipitation plays an important role in surface recession of stone. The Lipfert function has been taken under consideration to quantify the annual surface recession of carbonate stone, due to the effects of clean rain, acid rain and dry deposition of pollutants. The present paper provides Europe-wide maps showing quantitative predictions of surface recession on carbonate stones for the 21st century, combining a modified Lipfert function with output from the Hadley global climate model. Chemical dissolution of carbonate stones, via the karst effect, will increase with future CO₂ concentrations, and will come to dominate over sulfur deposition and acid rain effects on monuments and buildings in both urban and rural areas. During the present century the rainfall contribution to surface recession is likely to have a small effect, while the increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentration is shown to be the main factor in increasing weathering via the karst effect.     

Developing future hourly weather files for studying the impact of climate change on building energy performance in Hong Kong

The concern on climate change leads to growing demand for minimization of energy use. As building is one of the largest energy consuming sectors, it is essential to study the impact of climate change on building energy performance. In this regard, building energy simulation software is a useful tool. A set of appropriate typical weather files is one of the key factors towards successful building energy simulation. This paper reports the work of developing a set of weather data files for subtropical Hong Kong, taking into the effect of future climate change. Projected monthly mean climate changes from a selected General Circulation Model for three future periods under two emission scenarios were integrated into an existing typical meteorological year weather file by a morphing method. Through this work, six sets of future weather files for subtropical Hong Kong were produced. A typical office building and a residential flat were modeled using building simulation program EnergyPlus. Hourly building energy simulations were carried out. The simulated results indicate that there will be substantial increase in A/C energy consumption under the impact of future climate change, ranging from 2.6% to 14.3% and from 3.7% to 24% for office building and residential flat, respectively.     

Investigation of climate change impacts on flow regime in the Lucas Creek catchment using multiple CMIP5 ensembles

ABSTRACT

Climate change is projected to affect the flow regime in urban waterways adversely. This study investigates the climate change impacts on the flow regime in the Lucas Creek catchment under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Flow Duration Curves (FDCs) and Indicators of Hydrological Alteration (IHA) methods are used to assess flow regime variations. Results of FDCs show a maximum rise of 370% in peak flow under RCP 4.5 however, low flow increases by 40%. Monthly streamflow increases up to 380% except for October and December. Similarly, the majority of the IHA parameters also show at least a 10% increase in their magnitudes under RCP 8.5. However, some parameters such as high pulse duration and rise rate decrease by 50% under RCP 4.5. The catchment would mainly suffer severe impact variations under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in the future.     

The apparent and potential effects of climate change on the inferred concentration of dissolved organic matter in a temperate stream (the Mal e River, South Bohemia)

Long-term and seasonal changes in concentration of dissolved organic matter (DOM) and their possible drivers were evaluated for an upland stream in central Europe during 1969–2000. Two periods have been detected within this data set—years with decreased DOM until the middle of 1980s and then years with increased DOM until 2000. Temperature, hydrological regime of runoff from the catchment (namely the amount of interflow), and changes in atmospheric deposition of acidity coincided with the variations in DOM concentrations. The analysis of single runoff events confirmed the relation between the export of increased DOM concentrations from the catchment and interflow. A multiple linear regression model based on monthly averages of temperature and interflow explained 67% of DOM variability. This model suggested a 7% increase in DOM concentration under the scenarios of possible future climate change related to doubled CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere. The scenarios were based on results of several global circulation models.