Reduction potentials of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector

Rapid growth of road vehicles, private vehicles in particular, has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand and imports, which has been widely accepted as a major factor effecting future oil availability and prices, and a major contributor to China's GHG emission increase. This paper is intended to analyze the future trends of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector and to assess the effectiveness of possible reduction measures. A detailed model has been developed to derive a reliable historical trend of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector between 2000 and 2005 and to project future trends. Two scenarios have been designed to describe the future strategies relating to the development of China's road transport sector. The ‘Business as Usual’ scenario is used as a baseline reference scenario, in which the government is assumed to do nothing to influence the long-term trends of road transport energy demand. The ‘Best Case’ scenario is considered to be the most optimized case where a series of available reduction measures such as private vehicle control, fuel economy regulation, promoting diesel and gas vehicles, fuel tax and biofuel promotion, are assumed to be implemented. Energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector up to 2030 are estimated in these two scenarios. The total reduction potentials in the ‘Best Case’ scenario and the relative reduction potentials of each measure have been estimated.     

Oil consumption and CO2 emissions in China's road transport: current status,future trends,and policy implications

With the rapid economic growth in China, the Chinese road transport system is becoming one of the largest and most rapidly growing oil consumers in China. This paper attempts to present the current status and forecast the future trends of oil demand and CO₂ emissions from the Chinese road transport sector and to explore possible policy measures to contain the explosive growth of Chinese transport oil consumption. A bottom-up model was developed to estimate the historical oil consumption and CO₂ emissions from China's road transport sector between 1997 and 2002 and to forecast future trends in oil consumption and CO₂ emissions up to 2030. To explore the importance of policy options of containing the dramatic growth in Chinese transport oil demand, three scenarios regarding motor vehicle fuel economy improvements were designed in predicting future oil use and CO₂ emissions. We conclude that China's road transportation will gradually become the largest oil consumer in China in the next two decades but that improvements in vehicle fuel economy have potentially large oil-saving benefits. In particular, if no control measures are implemented, the annual oil demand by China's road vehicles will reach 363 million tons by 2030. On the other hand, under the low- and high-fuel economy improvement scenarios, 55 and 85 million tons of oil will be saved in 2030, respectively. The scenario analysis suggests that China needs to implement vehicle fuel economy improvement measures immediately in order to contain the dramatic growth in transport oil consumption. The imminent implementation is required because (1) China is now in a period of very rapid growth in motor vehicle sales; (2) Chinese vehicles currently in the market are relatively inefficient; and (3) the turnover of a fleet of inefficient motor vehicles will take a long time.     

China's transportation energy consumption and CO2 emissions from a global perspective

Rapidly growing energy demand from China's transportation sector in the last two decades have raised concerns over national energy security, local air pollution, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, and there is broad consensus that China's transportation sector will continue to grow in the coming decades. This paper explores the future development of China's transportation sector in terms of service demands, final energy consumption, and CO₂ emissions, and their interactions with global climate policy. This study develops a detailed China transportation energy model that is nested in an integrated assessment model—Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)—to evaluate the long-term energy consumption and CO₂ emissions of China's transportation sector from a global perspective. The analysis suggests that, without major policy intervention, future transportation energy consumption and CO₂ emissions will continue to rapidly increase and the transportation sector will remain heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Although carbon price policies may significantly reduce the sector's energy consumption and CO₂ emissions, the associated changes in service demands and modal split will be modest, particularly in the passenger transport sector. The analysis also suggests that it is more difficult to decarbonize the transportation sector than other sectors of the economy, primarily owing to its heavy reliance on petroleum products.     

The impact of fuel cell vehicle deployment on road transport greenhouse gas emissions: The China case

Considerable attention has been paid to energy security and climate problems caused by road vehicle fleets. Fuel cell vehicles provide a new solution for reducing energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, especially those from heavy-duty trucks. Although cost may become the key issue in fuel cell vehicle development, with technological improvements and cleaner pathways for hydrogen production, fuel cell vehicles will exhibit great potential of cost reduction. In accordance with the industrial plan in China, this study introduces five scenarios to evaluate the impact of fuel cell vehicles on the road vehicle fleet greenhouse gas emissions in China. Under the most optimistic scenario, greenhouse gas emissions generated by the whole fleet will decrease by 13.9% compared with the emissions in a scenario with no fuel cell vehicles, and heavy-duty truck greenhouse gas emissions will decrease by nearly one-fifth. Greenhouse gas emissions intensity of hydrogen production will play an essential role when fuel cell vehicles' fuel cycle greenhouse gas emissions are calculated; therefore, hydrogen production pathways will be critical in the future.     

Estimation on oil demand and oil saving potential of China's road transport sector

China is currently in the stage of industrialization and urbanization, which is characterized by rigid energy demand and rapid growth of energy consumption. Therefore, energy conservation will become a major strategy for China in a transition to low-carbon economy. China's transport industry is of high energy consumption. In 2010, oil consumption in transport industry takes up 38.2% of the country's total oil demand, of which 23.6% is taken up by road transport sector. As a result, oil saving in China's road transport sector is vital to the whole nation. The co-integration method is developed to find a long-run relationship between oil consumption and affecting factors such as GDP, road condition, labor productivity and oil price, to estimate oil demand and to predict future oil saving potential in China's transport sector under different oil-saving scenarios. Monte Carlo simulation is further used for risk analysis. Results show that under BAU condition, oil demand of China's road transport sector will reach 278.5 million ton of oil equivalents (MTOE) in 2020. Oil saving potential will be 86 MTOE and 131 MTOE under moderate oil-saving scenario and advanced oil-saving scenario, respectively. This paper provides a reference to establishing oil saving policy for China's road transport sector.     

China's natural gas: Resources,production and its impacts

In order to achieve energy consumption targets, and subsequently reduce carbon emissions, China is working on energy strategies and policies aimed at actively increasing the consumption of natural gas—the lowest carbon energy of the fossil fuels, and to enhance the proportion of gas in total primary energy consumption. To do this, it is a necessary prerequisite that China must have access to adequate gas resources and production to meet demand. This paper shows that the availability of domestic gas resources are overestimated by China's authorities due to differences in classification and definitions of gas resources/reserves between China and those accepted internationally. Based on official gas resource figures, China's gas production remains low with respect to the projected demand, and will only be 164.6 bcm in 2020, far lower than the 375 bcm of forecast demand. The gap between gas production and demand will reach 210.4 bcm by 2020. Existing plans for the importation of gas and the development of unconventional gas will not close this gap in the next 10 years, and this situation will therefore present a severe challenge to China's gas security, achievement of targets in improving energy consumption structure and reducing carbon emissions.     

Energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions during the production of a passenger car in China

Rapidly-rising oil demand and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from road vehicles in China, passenger cars in particular, have attracted worldwide attention. As most studies to date were focused on the vehicle operation stage, the present study attempts to evaluate the energy demand and GHG emissions during the vehicle production process, which usually consists of two major stages—material production and vehicle assembly. Energy demand and GHG emissions in the material production stage are estimated using the following data: the mass of the vehicle, the distribution of material used by mass, and energy demand and GHG emissions associated with the production of each material. Energy demand in the vehicle assembly stage is estimated as a linear function of the vehicle mass, while the associated GHG emission is estimated according to the primary energy sources. It is concluded that the primary energy demand, petroleum demand and GHG emissions during the production of a medium-sized passenger car in China are 69,108 MJ, 14,545 MJ and 6575 kg carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂-eq). Primary energy demand, petroleum demand and GHG emissions in China’s passenger car fleets in 2005 would be increased by 22%, 5% and 30%, respectively, if the vehicle production stage were included.     

Hybrid modeling of China’s vehicle ownership and projection through 2050

As representative for emerging vehicle market, China has one of the fastest growing rates of automobile ownership in the world. The huge and increasing vehicle stock has significantly contributed to the fast growing of China’s energy demand and GHG emissions. It is an important issue to project China’s vehicle ownership, which to a large extent determines China’s oil demand and GHG emissions from road transportation sector in the future. In this study, we established a hybrid model with three sub models to simulate the growth patterns of China’s private passenger vehicles, urban public transport vehicles and economic utility vehicles. By using this model, we projected that China’s vehicle population would reach 184.8, 363.8 and 606.7 million by 2020, 2030 and 2050 respectively. The fast increase of urban private passenger vehicles is the main driving force for vehicle population growth. Population of urban private passenger vehicles would account for 70.1%, 81.1% and 86.1% of total vehicle population in 2020, 2030 and 2050 respectively. It was demonstrated by sensitivity analysis that vehicle population was quite sensitive to household income and vehicle price, implying an effective lever for regulating the growth of vehicle population.     

Energy for sustainable road transportation in China: Challenges,initiatives and policy implications

This paper presents an overview of the initiatives launched in energy supply and consumption and the challenges encountered in sustainable road transportation development in China. It analyzes the main energy challenges related to road transportation development arising in the context of economic development, rapid urbanization, and improvement in living standards. It also discusses technological- and policy initiatives needed to deal with these challenges, drawing comparisons with foreign experience: promoting the development and dissemination of alternative fuels and clean vehicles such as: LPG, CNG, EV, HEV, FCV, ethanol, methanol, DME, bio-diesel, and CTL, strengthening regulations relating to vehicle fuel economy and emission, improving traffic efficiency and facilitating public transport development, and strengthening management of the soaring motor vehicle population. If the current pattern continues, by the year 2030, the vehicle population in China will be 400 million and fuel demand will be 350 million tons. The potential energy saving capacity being 60%, the actual oil demand by 2030 from on-road vehicles might technically be kept at the current level by improving fuel economy, propagating use of HEV and diesel vehicles, improving supply of alternative fuels, and developing public transport. Several uncertainties are identified that could greatly influence the effect of the technical proposals: traffic efficiency, central government's resolve, and consumers' choice.     

Strategies for a road transport system based on renewable resources – The case of an import-independent Sweden in 2025

When discussing how society can decrease greenhouse gas emissions, the transport sector is often seen as posing one of the most difficult problems. In addition, the transport sector faces problems related to security of supply. The aim of this paper is to present possible strategies for a road transport system based on renewable energy sources and to illustrate how such a system could be designed to avoid dependency on imports, using Sweden as an example. The demand-side strategies considered include measures for decreasing the demand for transport, as well as various technical and non-technical means of improving vehicle fuel economy. On the supply side, biofuels and synthetic fuels produced from renewable electricity are discussed. Calculations are performed to ascertain the possible impact of these measures on the future Swedish road transport sector. The results underline the importance of powerful demand-side measures and show that although biofuels can certainly contribute significantly to an import-independent road transport sector, they are far from enough even in a biomass-rich country like Sweden. Instead, according to this study, fuels based on renewable electricity will have to cover more than half of the road transport sector’s energy demand.     

Growth and structural change in China's energy economy

China has been the world's most vibrant economy and its largest source of energy demand growth over the past two decades, accounting for more than one-quarter of net growth in global primary energy consumption from 1980 to 2005. To sustain economic growth and rising living standards, China needs effective policies that anticipate and shape the country's future energy requirements. In this paper, we examine China's national economic and energy accounts over the past decade for insights into changing energy use patterns and their relationship to economic structure. Our results indicate that incipient structural changes in the Chinese energy economy and sustained economic and energy demand growth in China will pose important, and different, challenges for policymakers.     

Growing Chinese coal use: Dramatic resource and environmental implications

Chinese coal consumption continues to rise as the country's economy and industry expand. Coal is particularly critical for China's fast-growing power sector, generating about 80% of electricity output. Notwithstanding the importance of coal and electricity, many international forecasts today underestimate their rising use in China. This paper acknowledges the current world financial crisis and assumes that Chinese GDP growth to 2025 will not again approach double-digit levels. Using the scenario analysis, this paper demonstrates that even with conservative assumptions about Chinese GDP growth and income elasticity of electric demand to 2025, the country will likely experience much higher coal demand and emit much greater volumes of carbon dioxide than forecast by various international energy agencies. The paper also analyzes how China's domestic coal reserves may be threatened within two decades, possibly affecting long-term economic growth in China, as well as world coal prices.     

Evaluating carbon dioxide emissions in international trade of China

China is the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide (CO₂). As exports account for about one-third of China's GDP, the CO₂ emissions are related to not only China's own consumption but also external demand. Using the input–output analysis (IOA), we analyze the embodied CO₂ emissions of China's import and export. Our results show that about 3357 million tons CO₂ emissions were embodied in the exports and the emissions avoided by imports (EAI) were 2333 million tons in 2005. The average contribution to embodied emission factors by electricity generation was over 35%. And that by cement production was about 20%. It implies that the production-based emissions of China are more than the consumption-based emissions, which is evidence that carbon leakage occurs under the current climate policies and international trade rules. In addition to the call for a new global framework to allocate emission responsibilities, China should make great efforts to improve its energy efficiency, carry out electricity pricing reforms and increase renewable energy. In particular, to use advanced technology in cement production will be helpful to China's CO₂ abatement.     

Carbon emission control strategies for China: A comparative study with partial and general equilibrium versions of the China MARKAL model

China's carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion had increased with an annual growth rate of 4.36% since 1980, hitting 1 GtC in 2003. The global climate change issue is becoming more and more important and hence to be the fourth challenge for China's future energy development, following energy supply shortages, energy security, and local environmental protection. This paper used three MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) family models, that is, MARKAL, MARKAL-ED (MARKAL with elastic demand), and MARKAL-MACRO, to study China energy system's carbon mitigation strategies and corresponding impacts on the economy. The models’ structures and the economic feedback formulations used in MARKAL-MACRO and MARKAL-ED are briefly described. The endogenous demands in MARKAL-MACRO and MARKAL-ED enable them to partly satisfy carbon abatement constraints via energy service demand reductions, and the reduction levels for the 30 demand sectors from these two kinds of models for given carbon emission constraints are presented and compared. The impact of carbon mitigation on social welfare from MARKAL and MARKAL-ED, and on GDP, investment and consumption from MARKAL-MACRO are evaluated. The changes in both final and primary energy mix, changes in technology development, as well as marginal abatement costs for given carbon constraints from the three models, are analyzed.     

An analysis of China's coal supply and its impact on China's future economic growth

Many people believe that China's economic growth can continue almost indefinitely. For a manufacturing-based economy such as China's to continue to grow, it needs an adequate supply of inexpensive energy. To date, this energy growth has primarily come from coal, but China's indigenous coal supplies are now falling short of the amount needed to support this growth. In this situation, the status of China's future coal supply will be very important for China's future economic development. Our analysis shows that China's ultimate recoverable coal reserves equal 223.6×10⁹ MT, and its production will peak between 2025 and 2030, with peak production of approximately 3.9×10⁹ MT. The extent to which China can import coal in the future is uncertain. With rising coal demand, this combination is likely to create a significant challenge to China's future economic development.     

我国新能源汽车发展对道路交通能源转型影响研究

本文首先通过Bass模型对各类新能源汽车动力技术/车型保有量变化趋势进行预测。在此基础上,采用LEAP模型测算了交通部门能源消费,并利用GREET模型的分析结果分两种情景预测了全生命周期温室气体排放量。研究发现,较混合动力汽车快速发展情景,新能源汽车普及情景下我国道路交通能耗及排放水平总量将显著下降,且能耗及排放峰值都将明显提前,新能源汽车的快速发展将对加速我国交通能源转型及温室气体减排起到关键作用。     

Carbon emissions in China: How far can new efforts bend the curve?

While China is on track to meet its global climate commitments through 2020, China's post-2020 CO₂ emissions trajectory is highly uncertain, with projections varying widely across studies. Over the past year, the Chinese government has announced new policy directives to deepen economic reform, to protect the environment, and to limit fossil energy use in China. To evaluate how new policy directives could affect energy and climate change outcomes, we simulate two levels of policy effort—a continued effort scenario that extends current policies beyond 2020 and an accelerated effort scenario that reflects newly announced policies—on the evolution of China's energy and economic system over the next several decades. We perform simulations using the China-in-Global Energy Model, C-GEM, a bespoke recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium model with global coverage and detailed calibration of China's economy and future trends. Importantly, we find that both levels of policy effort would bend down the CO₂ emissions trajectory before 2050 without undermining economic development. Specifically, in the accelerated effort scenario, we find that coal use peaks around 2020, and CO₂ emissions level off around 2030 at 10 bmt, without undermining continued economic growth consistent with China reaching the status of a “well-off society” by 2050.     

Study on China's low carbon development in an Economy–Energy–Electricity–Environment framework

Emissions mitigation is a major challenge for China's sustainable development. We summarize China's successful experiences on energy efficiency in past 30 years as the contributions of Energy Usage Management and Integrated Resource Strategic Planning, which are essential for low-carbon economy. In an Economy–Energy–Electricity–Environment (E4) framework, the paper studies the low-carbon development of China and gives an outlook of China's economy growth, energy–electricity demand, renewable power generation and energy conservation and emissions mitigation until 2030. A business-as-usual scenario is projected as baseline for comparison while low carbon energy and electricity development path is studied. It is defined as low carbon energy/electricity when an economy body manages to realize its potential economic growth fueled by less energy/electricity consumption, which can be characterized by indexes of energy/electricity intensity and emissions per-unit of energy consumption (electricity generation). Results show that, with EUM, China, could save energy by 4.38 billion ton oil equivalences (toes) and reduce CO₂ emission by 16.55 billion tons; with IRSP, China, could save energy by 1.5 Btoes and reduce CO₂ emission by 5.7 Btons, during 2010–2030. To realize the massive potential, China has to reshape its economic structure and rely much on technology innovation in the future.     

中国中长期碳减排战略目标初探(Ⅲ)——石油能源产品在交通运输等行业中的应用和碳减排

在我国中长期的终端能源需求中石油将占约15%的份额,其中55%～60%将被用于交通运输行业。逐步减少交通运输领域石油能源产品的使用量,对减少能源消费总量和二氧化碳排放量十分重要。目前国内外研究机构预测的中国2050年货运周转总量(8×104～9×104Gt.km)及公路货运周转量均明显偏高,造成预测的运输燃料消耗量太高,这也反映出调整中国经济产业结构和进出口贸易结构的紧迫性。减少私人乘用车的拥有量和出行量也是节能减排的关键,采用西方发达国家私人乘用车的比例,预测中国2050年将拥有5×108～6×108辆乘用车不符合中国人口众多、城市中心区人口密度的特点,将乘用车数量控制在3.0×108辆的水平比较恰当。目前全球运输领域二氧化碳排放量约占总排放量的20%～25%,中国运输领域的二氧化碳排放量将逐步上升,占总排放量的份额将从目前的7%提高到2050年的30%以上。应努力采取各种措施,使2050年乘用车的二氧化碳排放强度降低到40g/km的水平。除了减少化石能源石油产品使用量、使用生物质燃料、推广纯电动汽车和开发燃料电池汽车外,改变出行方式、发展方便快捷的公共交通显得十分重要。预计我国2050年燃料电池汽车将占到小汽车保有量的20%左右,纯电动汽车占30%左右,各种混合动力汽车将占50%左右。为了使中国2050年二氧化碳排放总量控制在40×108～50×108t的水平,有可能也有必要将石油的使用量控制在6.0×108t,交通运输领域石油能源产品使用量控制在4.0×108t以下。     

Energy efficiency achievements in China׳s industrial and transport sectors: How do they rate?

China is experiencing intensified industrialisation and motorisation. In the world׳s largest emerging economy, energy efficiency is expected to play a critical role in the ever-rising demand for energy. Based on factual overviews and numerical analysis, this article carries out an in-depth investigation into the effectiveness of policies announced or implemented in recent decades targeted at energy conservation in the energy intensive manufacturing and transportation sectors. It highlights nine energy intensive sectors that achieved major improvements in their energy technology efficiency efforts. Under the umbrella of the 11th Five-Year Plan, these sectors׳ performances reflect the effectiveness of China׳s energy conservation governance. Numerous actions have been taken in China to reduce the road transport sector׳s demand for energy and its GHG emissions by implementing fuel economy standards, promoting advanced energy efficient vehicles, and alternative fuels.Coal-based energy saving technologies, especially industrial furnace technologies, are critical for China׳s near and medium-term energy saving. In the long run, renewable energy development and expanding the railway transport system are the most effective ways to reduce energy use and GHG emissions in China. Fuel economy standards could reduce oil consumption and GHGs by 34–35 per cent.