Life cycle analysis of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions for road transportation fuels in China

Life cycle analysis is considered to be a valuable tool for decision making towards sustainability. Life cycle energy and environmental impact analysis for conventional transportation fuels and alternatives such as biofuels has become an active domain of research in recent years. The present study attempts to identify the most reliable results to date and possible ranges of life cycle fossil fuel use, petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions for various road transportation fuels in China through a comprehensive review of recently published life cycle studies and review articles. Fuels reviewed include conventional gasoline, conventional diesel, liquefied petroleum gas, compressed natural gas, wheat-derived ethanol, corn-derived ethanol, cassava-derived ethanol, sugarcane-derived ethanol, rapeseed-derived biodiesel and soybean-derived biodiesel. Recommendations for future work are also discussed.     

Energy for sustainable road transportation in China: Challenges,initiatives and policy implications

This paper presents an overview of the initiatives launched in energy supply and consumption and the challenges encountered in sustainable road transportation development in China. It analyzes the main energy challenges related to road transportation development arising in the context of economic development, rapid urbanization, and improvement in living standards. It also discusses technological- and policy initiatives needed to deal with these challenges, drawing comparisons with foreign experience: promoting the development and dissemination of alternative fuels and clean vehicles such as: LPG, CNG, EV, HEV, FCV, ethanol, methanol, DME, bio-diesel, and CTL, strengthening regulations relating to vehicle fuel economy and emission, improving traffic efficiency and facilitating public transport development, and strengthening management of the soaring motor vehicle population. If the current pattern continues, by the year 2030, the vehicle population in China will be 400 million and fuel demand will be 350 million tons. The potential energy saving capacity being 60%, the actual oil demand by 2030 from on-road vehicles might technically be kept at the current level by improving fuel economy, propagating use of HEV and diesel vehicles, improving supply of alternative fuels, and developing public transport. Several uncertainties are identified that could greatly influence the effect of the technical proposals: traffic efficiency, central government's resolve, and consumers' choice.     

Energy efficiency technologies for road vehicles

A key message of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is that improved energy efficiency is one of society’s most important instruments for combating climate change. This article reviews a range of energy efficiency measures in the transportation sector as discussed in AR4 and assess their potentials for improving fuel efficiency. The primary focus is on light-duty vehicles because they represent the largest portion of world transport energy use and carbon dioxide emissions; freight trucks, a rapidly expanding source of greenhouse emissions, are also discussed. Increasing energy efficiency can be achieved by improving the design and technology used in new vehicles, but vehicle technology is only one component of fleet fuel economy. Measures that create strong incentives for customers to take energy efficiency into consideration when buying and operating their vehicles will be crucial to policy success.

The impact of fuel cell vehicle deployment on road transport greenhouse gas emissions: The China case

Considerable attention has been paid to energy security and climate problems caused by road vehicle fleets. Fuel cell vehicles provide a new solution for reducing energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, especially those from heavy-duty trucks. Although cost may become the key issue in fuel cell vehicle development, with technological improvements and cleaner pathways for hydrogen production, fuel cell vehicles will exhibit great potential of cost reduction. In accordance with the industrial plan in China, this study introduces five scenarios to evaluate the impact of fuel cell vehicles on the road vehicle fleet greenhouse gas emissions in China. Under the most optimistic scenario, greenhouse gas emissions generated by the whole fleet will decrease by 13.9% compared with the emissions in a scenario with no fuel cell vehicles, and heavy-duty truck greenhouse gas emissions will decrease by nearly one-fifth. Greenhouse gas emissions intensity of hydrogen production will play an essential role when fuel cell vehicles' fuel cycle greenhouse gas emissions are calculated; therefore, hydrogen production pathways will be critical in the future.     

Energy consumption and CO2 emissions of potato peel and sugarcane biohydrogen production pathways, applied to Portuguese road transportation

This paper analyses the energy consumption and CO₂ emissions of biological hydrogen production from sugarcane and potato peels using life cycle assessment methodology for the Portuguese scenario. Potato peels are assumed to be produced locally from Portuguese potato cultivation. Sugarcane is assumed to be imported from Brazil and fermented in Portugal. The uncertainty is quantified by a Monte Carlo approach. Biohydrogen was compared with natural gas reforming, electrolysis and other energy resources such as diesel and electricity. Between bioH₂ feedstocks, sugarcane stands out with the lowest values for energy consumption and CO₂ emissions with 0.30–0.34 MJ of consumed energy and 24–31 g of CO₂ emitted per 1 MJ of H₂ produced. However these results do not have a major contribution to the Portuguese energy independency problem. On the other hand potato peels feedstocks are more attractive, presenting values of 0.49–0.61 MJ/MJ_H2 and 60-77 gCO₂/MJ_H2. According to Portuguese production capabilities, it is estimated that biohydrogen will be able to supply 3100 vehicles of a typical Portuguese urban taxi fleet or up to 1.4 million passenger cars with a daily commuting distance of 30 km.     

Energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions during the production of a passenger car in China

Rapidly-rising oil demand and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from road vehicles in China, passenger cars in particular, have attracted worldwide attention. As most studies to date were focused on the vehicle operation stage, the present study attempts to evaluate the energy demand and GHG emissions during the vehicle production process, which usually consists of two major stages—material production and vehicle assembly. Energy demand and GHG emissions in the material production stage are estimated using the following data: the mass of the vehicle, the distribution of material used by mass, and energy demand and GHG emissions associated with the production of each material. Energy demand in the vehicle assembly stage is estimated as a linear function of the vehicle mass, while the associated GHG emission is estimated according to the primary energy sources. It is concluded that the primary energy demand, petroleum demand and GHG emissions during the production of a medium-sized passenger car in China are 69,108 MJ, 14,545 MJ and 6575 kg carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂-eq). Primary energy demand, petroleum demand and GHG emissions in China’s passenger car fleets in 2005 would be increased by 22%, 5% and 30%, respectively, if the vehicle production stage were included.     

Life cycle assessment of hydrogen fuel cell and gasoline vehicles

A life cycle assessment of hydrogen and gasoline vehicles, including fuel production and utilization in vehicles powered by fuel cells and internal combustion engines, is conducted to evaluate and compare their efficiencies and environmental impacts. Fossil fuel and renewable technologies are investigated, and the assessment is divided into various stages.     

Reduction potentials of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector

Rapid growth of road vehicles, private vehicles in particular, has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand and imports, which has been widely accepted as a major factor effecting future oil availability and prices, and a major contributor to China's GHG emission increase. This paper is intended to analyze the future trends of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector and to assess the effectiveness of possible reduction measures. A detailed model has been developed to derive a reliable historical trend of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector between 2000 and 2005 and to project future trends. Two scenarios have been designed to describe the future strategies relating to the development of China's road transport sector. The ‘Business as Usual’ scenario is used as a baseline reference scenario, in which the government is assumed to do nothing to influence the long-term trends of road transport energy demand. The ‘Best Case’ scenario is considered to be the most optimized case where a series of available reduction measures such as private vehicle control, fuel economy regulation, promoting diesel and gas vehicles, fuel tax and biofuel promotion, are assumed to be implemented. Energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector up to 2030 are estimated in these two scenarios. The total reduction potentials in the ‘Best Case’ scenario and the relative reduction potentials of each measure have been estimated.     

Deployment of fuel cell vehicles in China: Greenhouse gas emission reductions from converting the heavy-duty truck fleet from diesel and natural gas to hydrogen

Hydrogen fuel cells, as an energy source for heavy duty vehicles, are gaining attention as a potential carbon mitigation strategy. Here we calculate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the Chinese heavy-duty truck fleet under four hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty truck penetration scenarios from 2020 through 2050. We introduce Aggressive, Moderate, Conservative and No Fuel Cell Vehicle (No FCV) scenarios. Under these four scenarios, the market share of heavy-duty trucks powered by fuel cells will reach 100%, 50%, 20% and 0%, respectively, in 2050. We go beyond previous studies which compared differences in GHG emissions from different hydrogen production pathways. We now combine an analysis of the carbon intensity of various hydrogen production pathways with predictions of the future hydrogen supply structure in China along with various penetration rates of heavy-duty fuel cell vehicles. We calculate the associated carbon intensity per vehicle kilometer travelled of the hydrogen used in heavy-duty trucks in each scenario, providing a practical application of our research. Our results indicate that if China relies only on fuel economy improvements, with the projected increase in vehicle miles travelled, the GHG emissions of the heavy-duty truck fleet will continue to increase and will remain almost unchanged after 2025. The Aggressive, Moderate and Conservative FCV Scenarios will achieve 63%, 30% and 12% reductions, respectively, in GHG emissions in 2050 from the heavy duty truck fleet compared to the No FCV Scenario. Additional reductions are possible if the current source of hydrogen from fossil fuels was displaced with increased use of hydrogen from water electrolysis using non-fossil generated electricity.     

Comparative economic and environmental benefits of ownership of both new and used light duty hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in Japan

We present a novel study of the differential total costs of ownership and marginal cost of life cycle emissions abatement for owners of both new and used light duty fuel cell and internal combustion engine vehicles in Japan. We find the emergence of used FCVs in the fleet significantly improves the economic and emissions savings over ICEVs. The cumulative life cycle GHG emissions reductions rapidly increase when FCVs exceed 55%–70% of total LDVs. Life cycle emissions in the vehicle fleet increase 40% if hydrogen is produced from SMR with CCS rather than from solar or wind based electrolysis. Fuel cell cost and electrolyser efficiency are key factors in achieving benefits. Finally, if the early time growth of FCVs to 2030 can be maintained near 50% the government 2050 emissions reduction target of 80% reduction from a 2013 base can be achieved.     

Influence of driving patterns on life cycle cost and emissions of hybrid and plug-in electric vehicle powertrains

We compare the potential of hybrid, extended-range plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles to reduce lifetime cost and life cycle greenhouse gas emissions under various scenarios and simulated driving conditions. We find that driving conditions affect economic and environmental benefits of electrified vehicles substantially: Under the urban NYC driving cycle, hybrid and plug-in vehicles can cut life cycle emissions by 60% and reduce costs up to 20% relative to conventional vehicles (CVs). In contrast, under highway test conditions (HWFET) electrified vehicles offer marginal emissions reductions at higher costs. NYC conditions with frequent stops triple life cycle emissions and increase costs of conventional vehicles by 30%, while aggressive driving (US06) reduces the all-electric range of plug-in vehicles by up to 45% compared to milder test cycles (like HWFET). Vehicle window stickers, fuel economy standards, and life cycle studies using average lab-test vehicle efficiency estimates are therefore incomplete: (1) driver heterogeneity matters, and efforts to encourage adoption of hybrid and plug-in vehicles will have greater impact if targeted to urban drivers vs. highway drivers; and (2) electrified vehicles perform better on some drive cycles than others, so non-representative tests can bias consumer perception and regulation of alternative technologies. We discuss policy implications.     

Energy-related emissions and mitigation opportunities from the household sector in Delhi

Urban centers are the major consumers of energy, which is a major source of air pollution. Therefore, an insight into energy consumption and quantification of emissions from urban areas are extremely important for identifying impacts and finding solution to air pollution in urban centers. This paper applies the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system for modeling the total energy consumption and associated emissions from the household sector of Delhi. Energy consumption under different sets of policy and technology options are analyzed for a time span of 2001–2021 and emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), carbon monoxide (CO), methane (CH₄), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), nitrous oxide (N₂O), total suspended particulates (TSP) and sulfur dioxide (SO₂) are estimated. Different scenarios are generated to examine the level of pollution reduction achievable by application of various options. The business as usual (BAU) scenario is developed considering the time series trends of energy use in Delhi households. The fuel substitution (FS) scenario analyzes policies having potential to impact fuel switching and their implications towards reducing emissions. The energy conservation (EC) scenario focuses on efficiency improvement technologies and policies for energy-intensity reduction. An integrated (INT) scenario is also generated to assess the cumulative impact of the two alternate scenarios on energy consumption and direct emissions from household sectors of Delhi. Maximum reduction in energy consumption in households of Delhi is observed in the EC scenario, whereas, the FS scenario seems to be a viable option if the emission loadings are to be reduced.     

Fuel consumption from vehicles of China until 2030 in energy scenarios

Estimation of fuel (gasoline and diesel) consumption for vehicles in China under different long-term energy policy scenarios is presented here. The fuel economy of different vehicle types is subject to variation of government regulations; hence the fuel consumption of passenger cars (PCs), light trucks (Lts), heavy trucks (Hts), buses and motor cycles (MCs) are calculated with respect to (i) the number of vehicles, (ii) distance traveled, and (iii) fuel economy. On the other hand, the consumption rate of alternative energy sources (i.e. ethanol, methanol, biomass-diesel and CNG) is not evaluated here. The number of vehicles is evaluated using the economic elastic coefficient method, relating to per capita gross domestic product (GDP) from 1997 to 2007. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system software is employed to develop a simple model to project fuel consumption in China until 2030 under these scenarios. Three energy consumption decrease scenarios are designed to estimate the reduction of fuel consumption: (i) ‘business as usual’ (BAU); (ii) ‘advanced fuel economy’ (AFE); and (iii) ‘alternative energy replacement’ (AER). It is shown that fuel consumption is predicted to reach 992.28 Mtoe (million tons oil equivalent) with the BAU scenario by 2030. In the AFE and AER scenarios, fuel consumption is predicted to be 734.68 and 600.36 Mtoe, respectively, by 2030. In the AER scenario, fuel consumption in 2030 will be reduced by 391.92 (39.50%) and 134.29 (18.28%) Mtoe in comparison to the BAU and AFE scenarios, respectively. In conclusion, our models indicate that the energy conservation policies introduced by governmental institutions are potentially viable, as long as they are effectively implemented.     

Energy demand and carbon emissions under different development scenarios for Shanghai,China

In this paper, Shanghai's CO₂ emissions from 1995 to 2006 were estimated following the IPCC guidelines. The energy demand and CO₂ emissions were also projected until 2020, and the CO₂ mitigation potential of the planned government policies and measures that are not yet implemented but will be enacted or adopted by the end of 2020 in Shanghai were estimated. The results show that Shanghai's total CO₂ emissions in 2006 were 184 million tons of CO₂. During 1995–2006, the annual growth rate of CO₂ emissions in Shanghai was 6.22%. Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, total energy demand in Shanghai will rise to 300 million tons of coal equivalent in 2020, which is 3.91 times that of 2005. Total CO₂ emissions in 2010 and 2020 will reach 290 and 630 million tons, respectively, under the BAU scenario. Under a basic-policy (BP) scenario, total energy demand in Shanghai will be 160 million tons of coal equivalent in 2020, which is 2.06 times that of 2005. Total CO₂ emissions in 2010 and 2020 in Shanghai will be 210 and 330 million tons, respectively, 28% and 48% lower than those of the business-as-usual scenario. The results show that the currently planned energy conservation policies for the future, represented by the basic-policy scenario, have a large CO₂ mitigation potential for Shanghai.     

Can hydrogen or natural gas be alternatives for aviation? – A life cycle assessment

Between 1989 and 2011 the aviation traffic has been growing 4.6% per year. The increase on aviation traffic had consequences in terms of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and local pollutant emissions (e.g. carbon monoxide – CO, hydrocarbons – HC, nitrogen oxides – NO_x). In order to minimize this problem, the evaluation of sustainable alternatives to current fuel (jet fuel A) has been discussed but their impact on emissions is still unclear. The main research goals of this paper are: (i) to evaluate if the well-to-wake energy consumption in aviation can be reduced with alternative fuels as liquid natural gas (LNG) and/or liquid hydrogen (LH₂) and (ii) to assess if alternative fuels can be used in aviation to minimize carbon dioxide emissions and local pollutants.     

Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China’s future road transport: Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions

The rapid growth of vehicles has resulted in continuing growth in China’s oil demand. This paper analyzes future trends of both direct and life cycle energy demand (ED) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China’s road transport sector, and assesses the effectiveness of possible reduction measures by using alternative vehicles/fuels. A model is developed to derive a historical trend and to project future trends. The government is assumed to do nothing additional in the future to influence the long-term trends in the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Four specific scenarios are used to describe the future cases where different alternative fuel/vehicles are applied. The best case scenario is set to represent the most optimized case. Direct ED and GHG emissions would reach 734 million tonnes of oil equivalent and 2384 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050 in the BAU case, respectively, more than 5.6 times of 2007 levels. Compared with the BAU case, the relative reductions achieved in the best case would be 15.8% and 27.6% for life cycle ED and GHG emissions, respectively. It is suggested for future policy implementation to support sustainable biofuel and high efficient electric-vehicles, and the deployment of coal-based fuels accompanied with low-carbon technology.     

Atmospheric emissions from road transportation in India

India has become one of the biggest emitters of atmospheric pollutants from the road transportation sector globally. Here we present an up-to-date inventory of the exhaust emissions of ten species. This inventory has been calculated bottom-up from the vehicle mileage, differentiating by seven vehicle categories, four age/technology layers and three fuel types each, for the seven biggest cities as well as for the whole nation. The age composition of the rolling fleet has been carefully modelled, deducting about one quarter of vehicles still registered but actually out-of-service. The vehicle mileage is calibrated to the national fuel consumption which is essential to limit uncertainties. Sensitivity analyses reveal the primary impact of the emission factors and the secondary influence of vehicle mileage and stock composition on total emissions. Emission estimates since 1980 are reviewed and qualified. A more comprehensive inspection and maintenance is essential to limit pollutant emissions; this must properly include commercial vehicles. They are also the most important vehicle category to address when fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions shall be contained.     

Life cycle energy,environment and economic assessment of soybean-based biodiesel as an alternative automotive fuel in China

Life cycle energy, environment and economic assessment for conventional diesel (CD) and soybean-based biodiesel (SB) in China was carried out in this paper. The results of the assessment have shown that compared with CD, SB has similar source-to-tank (StT) total energy consumption, 76% lower StT fossil energy consumption, 79% higher source-to-wheel (StW) nitrogen oxides (NO_X) emissions, 31%, 44%, 36%, 29%, and 67% lower StW hydrocarbon (HC), carbon monoxide (CO), particulate matter (PM), sulfur oxides (SO_X), and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, respectively. SB is thus considered to be much more renewable and cleaner than CD. However, the retail price of SB at gas stations would be about 86% higher than that of CD without government subsidy according to the cost assessment and China had to import large amount of soybean to meet the demand in recent years. Therefore, although SB is one of the most promising clean and alternative fuels, currently it is not a good choice for China. It is strategically important for China to diversify the feedstock for biodiesel and to consider other kinds of alternative fuels to substitute CD.     

Energy balance and greenhouse gas emissions from the production and sequestration of charcoal from agricultural residues

Agricultural residues (wheat/barley/oat straw) can be used to produce charcoal, which can then be either landfilled off-site or spread on the agricultural field as a means for sequestering carbon. One centralized and five portable charcoal production technologies were explored in this paper. The centralized system produced 747.95 kg-CO₂eq/tonne-straw and sequestered 0.204 t-C/t-straw. The portable systems sequestered carbon at 0.141–0.217 t-C/t-straw. The net energy ratio (NER) of the portable systems was higher than the centralized one at 10.29–16.26 compared to 6.04. For the centralized system, the carbon sequestration and the cumulative energy demand were most sensitive to the charcoal yield. Converting straw residues into charcoal can reduce GHG emissions by 80% after approximately 8.5 years relative to the baseline of in-field decomposition, showing these systems are effective carbon sequestration methods.     

Life cycle cost analysis of alternative vehicles and fuels in Thailand

High crude oil prices and pollution problems have drawn attention to alternative vehicle technologies and fuels for the transportation sector. The question is: What are the benefits/costs of these technologies for society? To answer this question in a quantitative way, a web-based model (http://vehiclesandfuels.memebot.com) has been developed to calculate the societal life cycle costs, the consumer life cycle costs and the tax for different vehicle technologies. By comparing these costs it is possible to draw conclusions about the social benefit and the related tax structure. The model should help to guide decisions toward optimality, which refers to maximum social benefit. The model was applied to the case of Thailand. The life cycle cost of 13 different alternative vehicle technologies in Thailand have been calculated and the tax structure analyzed.