不确定情景下应急物资储备库选址问题研究

针对在地震等自然灾害发生时受灾点以及应急需求均为不确定的情况,研究了灾前预置应急物资储备库的选址问题。通过设计多个需求情景来描述受灾点与应急需求的不确定性,建立了有最大运输距离限制的鲁棒优化模型,并设计了鲁棒优化方法。通过数值计算比较分析鲁棒优化方法和随机优化方法的计算结果,表明鲁棒优化解受不确定因素产生的偏差要比随机优化解小,鲁棒优化方法能够有效地减弱不确定性因素对选址方案的影响,并且能降低由预测偏差带来的风险。     

基于概率的高层建筑地震需求模型与风险评估EI北大核心CSCD

提出了基于贝叶斯理论的地震风险评估方法,综合考虑了地震危险性模型、输入地震动记录、结构参数和需求模型的不确定性,并以云南大理地区1970年-2017年间的地震数据为研究基础进行了详细讨论。在传统基于概率地震危险性分析方法的基础上,提出了基于贝叶斯理论的地震危险性分析方法,通过贝叶斯更新准则,确定了地震概率模型中未知参数的后验概率分布;通过贝叶斯理论建立了基于概率的地震需求模型,并在易损性中考虑了需求模型认知不确定性的影响;以42层钢框架-RC核心筒建筑为例,开展了地震作用下的风险评估。研究表明:基于贝叶斯理论的地震危险性分析方法,能够获得更为合理的危险性模型;忽略需求模型中参数不确定性的影响,将错误估计结构的地震易损性;不同加载工况将对高层建筑的地震风险产生显著影响。提出的概率风险评估方法,提供了可以考虑固有不确定性和认知不确定性的有效途径,有助于推动高性能结构地震韧性评价和设计理论的发展。     

装配式供应链不确定性衍生机理及其控制策略

以上游装配式供应链为研究对象,分析了装配式供应链不确定性来源,即供应过程、生产过程和需求过程,剖析了加剧装配式供应链系统不确定性的影响因素,即装配式供应链复杂的串一并联网络和供应节点之间的交互关系,这些导致装配式供应链系统交货数量不确定、交货时间不确定和供应商库存不确定,进而提出了消除装配式供应链不确定性产生根源的方法...     

考虑运行风险的含储能综合能源系统优化调度

为解决综合能源系统（integrated energy system,IES）中供需双侧不确定因素对运行调度带来的风险问题,提出了一种考虑运行风险的含储能IES优化调度模型。在目标函数中,用设备调整费用、失负荷惩罚费用和弃风弃光惩罚费用来量化系统运行风险。在约束条件中,区分了电能和热能的时间尺度差异,并计及储能的时间耦合性,建立了储能多时段耦合约束。然后提出了一种基于Benders分解的算法进行求解。最后通过算例分析了置信水平、储能功率及容量对IES运行费用及运行风险的影响。     

不确定环境下应急设施选址问题两阶段鲁棒优化模型

对于应急物流管理而言,应急物资集散中心选址是一个重要的决策要素。针对应急突发事件的不确定性特征,本文提出了一个应急设施选址问题两阶段鲁棒优化模型,以实现“预选址-重选址”两者的协同优化。第一阶段在需求和成本变动、设施损毁存在不确定因素的情况下,综合考虑选址策略在灾前规划、灾后反应、设施重建阶段的不同需求,建立了一种基于p-center的鲁棒“预选址”模型;第二阶段针对灾后新信息的获得,建立了一种基于反应式修复和调整策略的新建设施“重选址”模型。算例分析表明,本文模型对于应急设施选址问题比传统p-center模型更为合理有效     

自适应风险规避型院前急救网络设计鲁棒优化

为提高突发大规模应急事件下医疗急救系统的响应能力,提出了基于两阶段自适应风险规避型鲁棒优化模型的院前急救网络设计方法。针对不确定的急救需求发生量,通过基于场景的方法构建了最坏情况下的鲁棒条件风险值模型来规避需求未满足的极端风险,确保系统的服务能力。根据线性对偶理论提出等价的鲁棒对等模型以简化求解。最后,基于某市具体数值案例验证了模型的有效性和可靠性。通过对比分析和灵敏度分析发现,自适应模型较风险中性模型和一般随机风险规避模型有更高的需求满足率和更低的损失风险成本,优化方案显著提高了不确定环境下的应急响应效率和需求覆盖率。     

考虑柔性面积需求的动态设施布局方法研究

考虑到实际生产活动中设施形状的不规则性和布局重构过程中设施面积的柔性变化,提出了一种动态设施布局的求解方法。首先,为保证设施布置不超出车间边界、不重叠和位置能够任意互换,引入空间填充曲线表征设施位置和占地面积;然后,在需求可预测的情况下,建立以成本(物料运输费用、设施重构费用和车间租赁费用)最小为目标的动态设施布局模型,并运用模拟退火算法和遗传算法对模型求解,最终得到企业需要合租车间生产多计划期产品时的最优布局策略和最优租赁方案;最后,用算例说明了该方法的可行性与有效性。     

多重不确定性下的电气设备地震失效风险评估

电气设备的地震失效风险是进行电气设备抗震设计时的关键参数。考虑地震动、电气设备结构、电气设备性能指标及人为认知等多重不确定性,提出了考虑多重不确定性的电气设备地震易损性及地震失效风险的评估流程。算例结果表明,多重不确定性对电气设备的地震易损性及地震失效风险有较大影响。现有条件下,电气设备数值分析模型的认知不确定性造成了较大的标准差。抗震设防烈度及抗震设防地震动加速度峰值与电气设备地震失效风险之间不呈正相关关系。在评估电气设备的地震易损性及地震失效风险时,需考虑多重不确定的影响。     

基于模糊需求预测的二级供应链库存协调策略

针对市场需求的不确定性,引入模糊数学工具对需求不确定的二级供应链库存协调问题进行研究,得到了供应链成员企业在面对不确定需求时最优决策的具体表达式.通过数值分析检验了数量折扣作为协调机制在不确定环境下的有效性,讨论了市场需求预测的准确性对双方利润分配以及对整个供应链系统绩效的影响.     

考虑价格和时间敏感性需求的两周期供应链鲁棒优化模型

在不确定需求下,考虑需求的时间和价格敏感性,研究两周期供应链定价及订货联合决策问题。利用分段函数构建需求的价格和时间敏感性,并采用区间不确定集描述需求不确定性。根据制造商是否给予零售商回扣,分别建立主从对策鲁棒优化模型,并转化为可解的数学规划。结果表明,需求不确定性以及需求的时间和价格敏感性对双方的定价、订货和利润具有影响。具有回扣的主从策略使双方获得更高利润,需求的不确定性以及需求的时间和价格敏感性增加会降低双方利润。     

模糊环境下考虑供应中断的再制造闭环供应链研究

为研究需求和回收品质量模糊不确定环境下供应中断对再制造闭环供应链的影响,建立了系统总成本模型。运用模糊机会约束规划方法解决模型中不确定性问题,并采用遗传算法和粒子群算法来寻找算例的最优解。结果表明：在不同需求量和回收品质量的水平下企业成本有不同的变化;随着供应中断概率的增加,平均总成本也随之增加。因此,再制造企业在面临需求量和回收品质量模糊不确定的环境时,应尽量避免供应中断,制定符合企业发展的运作计划。     

An enhanced possibilistic programming approach for reliable closed-loop supply chain network design

Most of current logistics network design models in the literature typically assume that facilities are always available and absolutely reliable while in practice, they are always subject to several operational and disruption risks. This paper proposes a reliable closed-loop supply chain network design model, which accounts for both partial and complete facility disruptions as well as the uncertainty in the critical input data. The proposed model is of mixed integer possibilistic linear programming type that aims to minimise simultaneously the total cost of opening new facilities and the expected cost of disruption scenarios. An enhanced possibilistic programming approach is proposed to deal with the epistemic uncertainty in input data. Furthermore, the p-robustness criterion is used to limit the cost of disruption scenarios and protect the designed network against random facility disruptions. Several numerical experiments along with sensitivity analyses on uncertain parameters are conducted to illustrate the significance and applicability of the developed model as well as the effectiveness of the proposed solution approach. Our results demonstrate that operational and disruption risks considerably affect the whole structure of the designed network and they must be taken into account when designing a reliable closed-loop logistics network.     

Mitigating supply disruption with a backup supplier under uncertain demand: competition vs. cooperation

In case of supply disruption following major disasters, many supply chains tend to break down due to stock-outs and take a long time to recover. However, by keeping emergency sources of supply, some supply chains continue to function smoothly even after a major disaster. In this work, using a game-theoretic-framework, we consider a two-suppliers-one-retailer supply chain with price-dependent stochastic demand in which suppliers are prone to disruption. To investigate the impact of supply disruption we consider two models: SC model, in which the retailer does not maintain any emergency sources of supply against any supply disruption, and SCB model, in which the retailer maintains a backup supplier to mitigate the impact of supply disruption. We mainly focus on the pricing strategies of the suppliers and the mitigating strategies of the retailer under supply and demand uncertainty. We address two coordinating mechanisms to enhance supply chain performance. Our results indicate that in the presence of supply disruption, even with lower probabilities, the retailer would always prefer to take the advantage of a backup supplier and the optimal reserve quantity increases with disruption probabilities. We further investigate the scenario in which the suppliers would always prefer to cooperate with each other.     

考虑横向转运的线状需求物流节点选址研究

铁路线路建设需要大量物资,沿拟建线路布局物流节点对成本控制具有重要意义。为决策物流节点的位置及其相应的服务区域,考虑拟建线路物资需求的不确定性,引入物流节点间的横向转运策略,以运营总成本最小为目标,建立了线状需求下的设施选址−库存模型。在分析模型性质的基础上,设计了基于线搜索的求解算法。算例分析表明,横向转运增加一定的转运成本和运输成本,但大幅降低了物流节点的库存成本,进而降低运营总成本,考虑横向转运对物流节点的选址和服务区域决策有一定的影响。     

Closed loop supply chain network design and optimisation using fuzzy mixed integer linear programming model

Owing to the revolution in sustainable and green manufacturing the production planning and network design of closed loop supply chain concept has got the attention of researchers and managers. In this paper, a multi-product, multi-facility capacitated closed-loop supply chain framework is proposed in an uncertain environment including reuse, refurbish, recycle and disposal of parts. The uncertainty related to demand, fraction of parts recovered for different product recovery processes, product acquisition cost, purchasing cost, transportation cost, processing, and set-up cost is handled with fuzzy numbers. A fuzzy mixed integer linear programming model is proposed to decide optimally the location and allocation of parts at each facility and number of parts to be purchased from external suppliers in order to maximise the profit of organisation. The proposed solution methodology is able to generate a balanced solution between the feasibility degree and degree of satisfaction of the decision maker. The proposed model has been tested with an illustrative example.     

Impact on inventory costs with consolidation of distribution centers

The consolidation of Distribution Centers (DCs) is a new trend in global logistics management, with a reduction in inventory costs often being cited as one of the main benefits. This paper uses an analytical modeling approach to study the impact on facility investment and inventory costs when several DCs are consolidated into a central DC. In particular, our model suggests that consolidation leads to lower total facility investment and inventory costs if the demands are identically and independently distributed, or when they follow independent but possibly nonidentical Poisson processes. This agrees with the conclusion of the classical EOQ and newsvendor models. However, we show by an example that, for general stochastic demand processes, the total facility investment and inventory costs of a consolidated system can be infinitely worse off than that of a decentralized system. This arises mainly because the order replenishment fixed cost yields a cost component proportional to the square root of the mean value of the demand, while the demand uncertainty yields a cost component proportional to the standard deviation of the demand. Whether consolidation is cost effective or not depends on the trade-off between these two components, as indicated by an extensive numerical study. We also propose an algorithm that solves for a distribution system with the total facility investment and inventory costs within √2 of the optimal.     

A simulation-based experimental investigation of supply/timing uncertainty in MRP systems

The uncertainty inherent in material requirements planning (MRP) systems is of two general types: demand uncertainty and supply uncertainty. Supply uncertainty is a result of late deliveries (timing) or order shrinkage (quantity) or both. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of operating policies on an MRP system given supply uncertainty resulting from timing factors, specifically the uncertainty caused by variability in the lead time of purchased parts. Experiments arc conducted to assess the impact of four factors: the amount of lead time variability, the amount of safety stock or safety lead time, the lot-size rule, and the holding cost and lateness penalty, on the total cost of the MRP system given supply/timing uncertainty. An MRP/Production simulator is employed to perform the experiments. Practical guidelines for the manager of an MRP system with supply/timing uncertainty are presented.     

多级库存控制的连锁经营企业配送网络设计

研究了随机需求条件下连锁经营企业配送网络设计及其库存决策的联合优化问题.详细分析了基于POT(power of two)多级库存控制策略的连锁企业多级工作库存及订货成本,给出了门店及配送中心在满足给定服务水平条件下的安全库存成本.在综合考虑运输成本和配送中心选址成本的基础上,建立了以系统总成本最小为目标的配送系统总成本优化模型,并采用遗传算法求解该优化模型,在得到最优配送网络设计方案的同时,确定了配送中心订货周期及门店配送周期.通过算例验证了模型及算法的有效性,并分析了需求、运输距离和选址成本等因素的变化对系统总成本的影响,为连锁经营企业的物流配送网络设计及库存控制提供决策支持.     

回购契约下应对突发事件的供应链协调策略

在基本回购契约模型基础上,分析了回购契约下实现供应链协调的条件,并针对突发事件造成零售商面临的需求分布变化时供应链协调被打破的问题,提出了具有抗突发事件性的回购契约。这个契约主要将增加的供应商成本考虑进回购价格,使得供应商新增加的成本能够在供应商和零售商之间分配,从而使新的回购契约实现对突发事件的协调应对。应用一个算例对比加以说明。