Scenarios for Restoring Floodplain Ecology Given Changes to River Flows Under Climate Change: Case from the San Joaquin River,California

Freshwater ecosystem health has been increasingly linked to floodplain connectivity, and some river restoration efforts now overtly target reconnecting floodplain habitats for species recovery. The dynamic nature of floodplain habitats is not typically accounted for in efforts to plan and evaluate potential floodplain reconnection projects. This study describes a novel approach for integrating streamflow dynamics with floodplain area to quantify species‐specific habitat availability using hydraulic modelling, spatial analysis and statistical measures of flow regime. We used this hydro‐ecological modelling approach to examine the potential habitat for splittail (Pogonichthys macrolepidotus), Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and their food resources under two restoration treatments and two climate change flow scenarios for a study site on San Joaquin River in California. Even with the addition of new floodplain through restoration efforts, the modelling results reveal only 13 streamflow events in the past 80 years had the magnitude and duration required for splittail spawning and rearing, and 14 events had flows long enough for salmon rearing benefits. Under climate change, modelled results suggest only 4–17% of the years in the rest of this century are likely to produce required flow‐related habitat conditions for splittail and salmon rearing along the study reach. Lastly, we demonstrate by simulating augmented reservoir releases that restoration of fish habitat will require a more natural flow regime to make use of restored floodplain and achieve the desired hydrologic habitat connectivity. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrologic connectivity and land cover affect floodplain lake water quality,fish abundance,and fish diversity in floodplain lakes of the Wabash-White River basin

Floodplain lakes are important aquatic resources for supporting ecosystem services, such as organismal habitat, biodiversity, and the retention of nutrients and sediment. Due to geomorphic alteration of river channels and land-cover change, degradation to floodplain lakes in the Ohio River basin is occurring at a rate that will escalate as climate change causes increased flood intensity and the seasonal redistribution of rainfall. A better understanding of the local drivers that affect oxbow lakes is needed for targeted floodplain restoration efforts designed to slow degradation. We examined the effects of land cover, topography, and hydrologic connectivity on water quality and fish diversity and abundance in nine floodplain lakes with potentially high remnant ecological function in the Wabash-White watershed (Indiana, Ohio, and Illinois). Data collection included water-quality parameters; stable water isotopes; total phosphorus, total nitrogen, and chlorophyll-a; and fish community diversity and abundance. Results indicate that hay/pasture land cover and decreased topographic relief in the local oxbow watersheds, along with reduced river hydrologic connectivity, were related to an increase in total phosphorus, total nitrogen, and chlorophyll-a. Greater biodiversity and abundance in fish assemblages were evident in oxbow lakes that were more disconnected from the main channel. The results of this study suggest that hydrologic connectivity of oxbow lakes with the contributing drainage area and the main channel influence nutrients and fish communities. Knowing the influencing factors can help ecosystem managers better protect these valuable floodplain lake ecosystems and prioritize restoration efforts amidst increasing stressors due to climate and land-use changes.     

The Sanaga discharge at the Edea Catchment outlet (Cameroon): An example of hydrologic responses of a tropical rain‐fed river system to changes in precipitation and groundwater inputs and to flow regulation

The Sanaga River is one of Sub‐Saharan Africa's largest and greatly regulated rivers. Available flow data for this hydrosystem largely cover the pre‐ and post‐regulation periods. From comparisons between unregulated (hypothetical) and observed scenarios, it has been possible to separate and to quantify hydro‐climatic (groundwater + rainfall) change effects from anthropogenic impacts (especially dam‐related alterations). To appreciate shifts in the river regime, discontinuity detection tests and the IHA model were applied to discharge data series reflecting average and extreme flow conditions, respectively. Results obtained principally from the Hubert segmentation method reveal that a major discontinuity occurred in 1970–1971 separating a surplus phase between 1945–1946 and 1969–1970, and a deficient and much contrasted one, from 1971/1972. This implies that the Sanaga catchment is dominantly affected by hydro‐climatic changes. However, wide land cover/land use changes experienced here since 1988 have resulted in an increase in surface runoff. Additional quickflows linked to these changes may have partly compensated for the substantial decline in the dry season rainfall and groundwater inputs observed from this date. Although at the monthly scale, dam‐related impacts on average flows increase with stage of regulation, the seasonal variability of the river regime remains generally unaffected. A comparison of the IHA statistics, calculated from unregulated and observed streamflow data, show that hydrologic shifts occurring in maximum and minimum discharges are mostly significant from 1971/1972 and are mainly due to the action of dams. Minimum flows appear, however, widely impacted, thus reflecting the prime objective assigned to the existing reservoirs, constructed to supplement flows for hydroelectricity production during the dry season. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying the effect of riparian forest versus agricultural vegetation on river meander migration rates,central Sacramento River,California, USA

Riparian forest vegetation is widely believed to protect riverbanks from erosion, but few studies have quantified the effect of riparian vegetation removal on rates of river channel migration. Measured historical changes in a river channel centreline, combined with mapped changes in floodplain vegetation, provide an opportunity to test how riparian vegetation cover affects the erodibility of riverbanks. We analysed meander migration patterns from 1896 to 1997 for the central reach of the Sacramento River between Red Bluff and Colusa, using channel planform and vegetation cover data compiled from maps and aerial photography. We used a numerical model of meander migration to back‐calculate local values for bank erodibility (i.e. the susceptibility of bank materials to erosion via lateral channel migration, normalized for variations in near‐bank flow velocities due to channel curvature). A comparison of migration rates for approximately 50 years before and after the construction of Shasta dam suggests that bank migration rates and erodibility increased roughly 50%, despite significant flow regulation, as riparian floodplains were progressively converted to agriculture. A comparison of migration rates and bank erodibilities between 1949 and 1997, for reaches bordered by riparian forest versus agriculture, shows that agricultural floodplains are 80 to 150% more erodible than riparian forest floodplains. An improved understanding of the effect of floodplain vegetation on river channel migration will aid efforts to predict future patterns of meander migration for different river management and restoration scenarios. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

CLASSIFICATION OF FLOW REGIMES FOR ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW ASSESSMENT IN REGULATED RIVERS: THE HUAI RIVER BASIN,CHINA

Flow regime characteristics (magnitude, frequency, duration, seasonal timing and rates of change) play a primary role in regulating the biodiversity and ecological processes in rivers. River classification provides the foundation for comparing the hydrologic regimes of rivers and development of hydro‐ecological relationships to inform environmental flow management and river restoration. This paper presents a classification of natural flow regimes and hydrologic changes due to dams and floodgates in the Huai River Basin, China, in preparation for an environmental flow assessment. The monthly natural flow regime of 45 stations in the upper and middle Huai River Basin were simulated for the period 1963–2000, based on the hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). Six classes of flow patterns (low or high discharge, stable or variable, perennial or intermittent, predictable or unpredictable) were identified based on 80 hydrologic metrics, analysed by hierarchical clustering algorithms. The ecologically relevant climatic and geographic characteristics of these flow classes were tested for concordance with, and to strengthen, the hydro‐ecological classification. The regulation of natural flow patterns by dams and floodgates changed flows at some locations within each flow class and caused some gauges to shift into another class. The research reported here is expected to provide a foundation for development of hydro‐ecological relationships and environmental flow methods for wider use in China, as well as setting a new scientific direction for integrated river basin management in the Huai River Basin. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A geomorphic monitoring and adaptive assessment framework to assess the effect of lowland floodplain river restoration on channel–floodplain sediment continuity

The state of the science of lowland river floodplain restoration reflects the relatively new and experimental nature of large river floodplain rehabilitation efforts. Based on results of a case study of floodplain restoration at the lowland Cosumnes River, California, we present a geomorphic monitoring and adaptive assessment framework that addresses the need to inform and utilize scientific knowledge in lowland floodplain river restoration activities. Highlighting hydrogeomorphic processes that lead to habitat creation, we identify a discharge threshold for connectivity and sediment transfer from the channel to the floodplain and integrate discharge magnitude and duration to quantify a threshold to aid determination of when geomorphic monitoring is warranted. Using floodplain sand deposition volume in splay complexes as one indicator of dynamic floodplain habitat, we develop a model to aid prediction of the sand deposition volume as an assessment tool to use to analyze future monitoring data. Because geomorphic processes that form the physical structure of a habitat are dynamic, and because the most successful restoration projects accommodate this fundamental characteristic of ecosystems, monitoring designs must both identify trends and be adapted iteratively so that relevant features continue to be measured. Thus, in this paper, adaptive assessment is defined as the modification of monitoring and analysis methods as a dynamic system evolves following restoration activities. The adaptive monitoring and assessment methods proposed facilitate long‐term measurements of channel–floodplain sediment transfer, and changes in sediment storage and morphology unique to lowland river–floodplain interactions and the habitat that these physical processes support. The adaptive assessment framework should be integrated with biological and chemical elements of an interdisciplinary ecosystem monitoring program to answer research hypotheses and to advance restoration science in lowland floodplain river systems. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influences of valley form and land use on large river and floodplain habitats in Puget Sound

In this paper, we use a system‐wide census of large river and floodplain habitat features to evaluate influences of valley form and land use on salmon habitats along 2,237 km of river in the Puget Sound region of Washington State, USA. We classified the study area by geomorphic process domains to examine differences in natural potential to form floodplain habitats among valley types, and by dominant land cover to examine land use influences on habitat abundance and complexity. We evaluated differences in aquatic habitat among strata in terms of metrics that quantify the length of main channels, side channels, braid channels, and area of wood jams. Among geomorphic process domains, habitat metrics standardized by main channel length were lowest in canyons where there is limited channel migration and less potential to create side channels or braids, and highest in post‐glacial and mountain valleys where island‐braided channels tend to form. Habitat complexity was lower in glacial valleys (generally meandering channels) than in post‐glacial valleys. Habitat abundance and complexity decreased with increasing degree of human influence, with all metrics being highest in areas classified as forested and lowest in areas classified as developed. Using multiple‐year aerial photography, we assessed the ability of our methods to measure habitat changes through time in the Cedar and Elwha Rivers, both of which have recent habitat restoration activity. We were able to parse out sources of habitat improvement or degradation through time, including natural processes, restoration, or development. Our investigation indicates that aerial photography can be an effective and practical method for regional monitoring of status and trends in numerous habitats.     

SHORT‐TERM IMPACTS OF LATERAL HYDROLOGICAL CONNECTIVITY RESTORATION ON AQUATIC MACROINVERTEBRATES

In floodplain ecosystems, the lateral hydrological connectivity between the main river channel and the secondary channels plays a major role in shaping both the habitat conditions and the macroinvertebrate diversity. Among other threats, human activities tend to reduce the lateral connectivity, which increases floodplain terrestrialization and induces a loss of aquatic biodiversity. Consequently, the restoration of lateral connectivity is of growing concern. We studied four secondary channels of the Rhône floodplain that were subjected either to no restoration or to three different restoration measures (river flow increase only, flow increase plus dredging and flow increase plus reconnection to the river). Macroinvertebrate and environmental data were analysed one year before and during a period of five years after restoration. We expected a progressive increase of lateral connectivity according to the type of restoration. Changes in macroinvertebrate assemblages were predicted to be towards more rheophilic communities and proportionally related to the changes in lateral connectivity. In the reconnected channel, lateral connectivity increased and remained high five years after restoration. In the dredged channel, the immediate increase of the lateral connectivity metric induced by sediment removal was followed by a rapid decrease. In the unrestored channel and the channel only influenced by flow increase, the metric remained constant in time. The macroinvertebrate composition and the rarefied EPT richness changes were proportionally related to the changes in lateral connectivity. Alien species richness and densities increased progressively in all channels after restoration. Our results showed that modifications of the lateral connectivity lead to predictable changes in macroinvertebrate diversity. Synergistic interactions between restoration and longer‐term changes (e.g. climatic change, invasion of alien species) encourage long‐term monitoring to assess the durability and trends of restoration measures. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The influence of hydro‐climatic and anthropogenic effects on the long‐term variation of commercial fisheries in a large floodplain river

This study deals with the effects of climate fluctuations and anthropogenic impacts on fisheries of Paraná River over the last 100 years. It is the first attempt to appraise the influence of hydro‐climatic and anthropogenic variables on the population changes of the most important inland fisheries of Argentina. Datasets covering more than eight decades (1935–2016) of a number of frequent and abundant commercial species inhabiting the main channel as well as the large floodplain of Paraná River were used. Our results suggest that fish catches and structure changed over time. Long and short‐term changes and reductions were closely related to fluctuations of 18 hydro‐climatic variables. Positive effects on the ichthyofauna were recorded during humid periods (1930–1940 and 1970–2000), when the frequency of large spring–summer floods increased. An increase in anthropic impacts (accounted for with nine variables) were recorded during the last two decades. We highlight the usefulness of the approach to support the management of the resources, ensuring sustainability of commercial fish assemblages and the long‐term conservation of biodiversity in big rivers.     

Ecological strategies successfully predict the effects of river floodplain rehabilitation on breeding birds

To improve the ecological functioning of riverine ecosystems, large‐scale floodplain rehabilitation has been carried out in the Rhine–Meuse Delta since the 1990s. This paper evaluates changes in abundance of 93 breeding bird species over a period of 10 years in response to rehabilitation, by comparing population changes in 75 rehabilitated sites with 124 non‐rehabilitated reference sites. Such quantitative, multi‐species, large‐scale and long‐term evaluations of floodplain rehabilitation on biodiversity are still scarce, particularly studies that focus on the terrestrial component. We try to understand the effects by relating population trends to ecological and life‐history traits and strategies of breeding birds. More specifically, we try to answer the question whether rehabilitation of vegetation succession or hydro‐geomorphological river processes is the key driver behind recent population changes in rehabilitated sites. Populations of 35 species have significantly performed better in rehabilitated sites compared to non‐rehabilitated floodplains, whereas only 8 have responded negatively to rehabilitation. Differences in effects between species are best explained by the trait selection of nest location. Reproductive investment and migratory behaviour were less strong predictors. Based on these three traits we defined eight life‐history strategies that successfully captured a substantial amount of variation in rehabilitation effects. We conclude that spontaneous vegetation succession and initial excavations are currently more important drivers of population changes than rehabilitation of hydrodynamics. The latter are strongly constrained by river regulation. If rehabilitation of hydro‐geomorphological processes remains incomplete in future, artificial cyclic floodplain rejuvenation will be necessary for sustainable conservation of characteristic river birds. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ARE TWO SYSTEMIC FISH ASSEMBLAGE SAMPLING PROGRAMMES ON THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER TELLING US THE SAME THING?

We applied an Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI) used on Wisconsin/Minnesota waters of the upper Mississippi River (UMR) to compare data from two systemic sampling programmes. Ability to use data from multiple sampling programmes could extend spatial and temporal coverage of river assessment and monitoring efforts. We normalized for effort and tested fish community data collected by the Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program‐Great Rivers Ecosystems (EMAP‐GRE) 2004–2006 and the Long Term Resource Monitoring Program (LTRMP) 1993–2006. Each programme used daytime electrofishing along main channel borders but with some methodological and design differences. EMAP‐GRE, designed for baseline and, eventually, compliance monitoring, used a probabilistic, continuous design. LTRMP, designed primarily for baseline and trend monitoring, used a stratified random design in five discrete study reaches. Analysis of similarity indicated no significant difference between EMAP‐GRE and LTRMP IBI scores (n = 238; Global R = ?0.052; significance level = 0.972). Both datasets distinguished clear differences only between ‘Fair’ and ‘Poor’ condition categories, potentially supporting a ‘pass–fail’ assessment strategy. Thirteen years of LTRMP data demonstrated stable IBI scores through time in four of five reaches sampled. LTRMP and EMAP‐GRE IBI scores correlated along the UMR's upstream to downstream gradient (df [3, 25]; F = 1.61; p = 0.22). A decline in IBI scores from upstream to downstream was consistent with UMR fish community studies and a previous, empirically modelled human disturbance gradient. Comparability between EMAP‐GRE (best upstream to downstream coverage) and LTRMP data (best coverage over time and across the floodplain) supports a next step of developing and testing a systemic, multi‐metric fish index on the UMR that both approaches could inform. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impacts of water resource development on hydrological connectivity of different floodplain habitats in a highly variable system

Floodplains and their associated wetlands are important features of semiarid and arid landscapes, providing habitat and refugia for native species as well as contributing to human needs for freshwater. Globally, floodplain habitats are some of the most modified ecological communities because of water resource development and land‐use changes. However, the hydrological changes that have occurred in highly variable semiarid and arid systems are rarely quantified in a way that helps us understand the consequences for different floodplain habitat types. This study investigated changes in floodplain‐river connectivity that have occurred because of water resource development on four floodplain habitat types in the Lachlan River Catchment, Australia: (a) temporary floodplain lakes, (b) intermittent river red gum (Eucalyptus camaldulensis) swamps, (c) intermittent black box (Eucalyptus largiflorens) swamps, and (d) terminal wetlands (wetlands along distributary creeks). Changes to floodplain‐river connectivity characteristics were calculated using their commence to fill thresholds and flow scenarios derived from a river hydrology model, enabling comparison of long‐term data sets (120 years) encompassing a range of climate conditions. Connection regime metrics have changed significantly in all floodplain habitats except intermittent black box swamps. Temporary floodplain lakes have experienced the greatest reduction in number of connection events (60% reduction), followed by intermittent river red gum swamps (55% reduction). Intermittent black box swamps and terminal wetlands have experienced the least change in number of connection events (35% reduction). The nature of the change in connection suggests a change in vegetation communities will occur in response to long‐term hydrological change.     

塘背河小流域植被覆盖时空动态变化及水保驱动分析

塘背河小流域位于赣南革命老区和全国第一个水土保持改革试验区腹地,是我国第一批水土保持治理试点小流域,系统、科学评估塘背河小流域水土保持生态修复成效,对赣南水土保持改革试验区建设和水土保持高效治理技术模式提炼具有重要现实意义。利用40a遥感影像数据和水土保持治理数据,基于NDVI阈值分割法,开展了塘背河小流域植被覆盖时空动态变化以及水保驱动分析。结果表明:近40年塘背河小流域植被覆盖度由1975年的22.91%已提升到2014年的86.87%,随时间呈递增趋势;在时间和空间上均有差异性,时间上主要分为植被覆盖迅速增长期(1975-1989年),植被覆盖自我修复完善期(1989-2001年)以及植被覆盖稳固发展期(2001-2014年)3个阶段,空间上分为上游原有植被自我修复区、中游人工半干预植被修复区和下游人工直接干预植被修复区3个分区;植被覆盖与水土保持工程在时间和空间上具有较好的一致性,后期水土保持政策实施以及水土保持新技术、模式的应用大大减少了植被覆盖空间上的差异性,对于植被修复具有重要的推动作用,人类大规模农林开发在植被修复研究方面,不容忽视。     

Quantifying the hydrological effects of stream restoration in a montane meadow,northern California,USA

Stream restoration efforts, particularly within meadow systems, increasingly rely on ‘pond and plug’ type methods in which (a) alluvial materials are excavated from the floodplain, forming ponds; (b) excavated alluvial materials are used to plug incised channels and (c) smaller dimension channels are restored to the floodplain surface. A commonly stated objective of these efforts is to restore ecologically significant hydrological processes to degraded riparian systems. However, little research has been conducted to evaluate and quantify the restoration of these hydrological processes. Direct comparisons of pre‐ and post‐restoration hydrological observations are often misleading due to an inter‐annual climatic variability. To overcome this issue and accurately quantify the hydrological effects of restoration, we developed, calibrated and validated a hydrological model of a 230 ha mountain meadow along a 3.6 km restored reach of Bear Creek in the northeastern California. We then applied the model to simulate the pre‐ and post‐restoration scenarios by altering the floodplain topography and stream channel networks. Our results document three general hydrological responses to the meadow restoration effort: (1) increased groundwater levels and volume of subsurface storage; (2) increased frequency/duration of floodplain inundation and decreased magnitude of flood peaks and (3) decreased annual runoff and duration of baseflow. This study supports and quantifies the hypothesis that ‘pond and plug’ type stream restoration projects have the capacity to re‐establish hydrological processes necessary to sustain riparian systems. In addition, the results of this study can be used to improve quantitative objectives for ‘pond and plug’ type stream restoration activities in similar settings. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Site modelling methods for detecting hydrologic alteration of flood frequency and flood duration in the floodplain below the carlyle dam,lower Kaskaskia River,Illinois, USA

Reports concerning the influence of dams on river hydrology vary among researchers, interest groups and government agencies. These often contradicting statements may occur because changes in hydrology caused by dams are distinct for each dam and river watershed. The objective of this research was to use site specific techniques to determine if the 1967 installation of the Carlyle Dam, lower Kaskaskia River, Illinois, altered flood frequency and duration within the forested floodplain located below the dam. Results indicated a decrease in flood duration and frequency, and a decrease in annual flood frequency variation at a site 6.4 km below the dam. Pre‐dam versus post‐dam differences in flood frequency and duration at the site 32.2 km below the dam were related to climate rather than dam effects. Although dam impacts are a concern, this research shows that distance downstream from the dam and downstream tributary and watershed characteristics should be considered before assuming that the dam has changed hydrologic parameters for portions of rivers. This research also indicates that areas of the lower Kaskaskia River may still maintain hydrologic ecological integrity, and could be targeted for restoration and adaptive management purposes. Hydrologic modelling combined with river gage and on‐site well measurement techniques presented in this study could provide detailed flood frequency and duration information for land use, sociological and geomorphological questions in focus areas within river floodplains. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Invasibility Drives Restoration of a Floodplain Plant Community

An understanding of the processes that determine plant community structure is a requisite for the planning and evaluation of restoration efforts on river floodplains. Variable disturbance regimes derived from flood pulses increase the susceptibility of river floodplains to colonizations by new species and establish invasibility as a potentially important factor in plant community assembly and dynamics. The role of invasibility in the restoration of a wet prairie community on the Kissimmee River floodplain in central Florida was evaluated by quantifying temporal species turnover rates during wet and dry season sampling over a 12‐year pre‐restoration and post‐restoration period. Turnover rates increased with reestablishment of annual inundation regimes and were significantly greater on the reflooded floodplain than on the drained, channelized floodplain. Recurrent periods of increased invasibility were associated with repeated high‐amplitude flood pulses and accompanied by increased diversity of plant communities within the wet prairie landscape. Neither invasibility nor beta diversity was strongly related to the variable hydroperiods or depths provided by local topography and restoration of seasonal hydrologic regimes. Results suggest that invasibility is a functional process by which the restored flood pulse has reestablished the structure and diversity of the wet prairie. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

THE IMPORTANCE OF VARIABLE LATERAL CONNECTIVITY BETWEEN ARTIFICIAL FLOODPLAIN WATERBODIES AND RIVER CHANNELS

The rehabilitation of lowland rivers subjected to channelization and artificial levee construction should attempt to improve habitat heterogeneity and diversity of floodplain hydrological connectivity. However, rehabilitation efforts rarely consider the importance of variable lateral hydrological connectivity between floodplain waterbodies and main river channels (ranging from those permanently connected to those temporarily connected during river level rises), instead focusing on increasing individual floodplain waterbody connectivity. This study investigated the young‐of‐the‐year (YoY) fish communities in 10 artificial floodplain waterbodies of variable hydrological connectivity with the river Trent, England, between May and November 2006, inclusive. Floodplain waterbody connectivity to the main river was positively correlated with the number of species captured (alpha diversity), Shannon–Wiener diversity, Margalef's species richness index and the relative abundance of rheophilic species and negatively correlated with species turnover (beta diversity). YoY fish communities in poorly connected water bodies were most dissimilar to riverine communities. The results demonstrate the importance of variable lateral connectivity between artificial floodplain waterbodies and main river channels when rehabilitating lowland river fish communities. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development and Application of an Integrated Water Balance Model to Study the Sensitivity of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area Water Availability Scenario to Climatic Changes

This study investigates the water availability scenario along Tokyo Metropolitan Area (TMA) under future climatic changes. TMA, which depends largely on the adjacent Tone river for its water supply, suffers from water shortage almost once in 2–3 yr. A methodology was developed considering integrated approach to ascertain probable impact of climatic changes on the overall water availability along the Tone river and its impact on TMA. Historical trend in hydro-climatic characteristics of the Tone River basin was investigated at the first place to assess the changes and interrelationships. A deterministic water balance model was later developed, integrating natural hydrological balance as well as several water uses and river regulation effects. The natural water balance part of the model was tested for some hypothetical climate change scenarios to observe the sensitivity of the Tone river flow to climatic perturbations. For the worst scenario of precipitation and temperature changes, the unregulated Tone river flow was observed to be reduced by around 20–50%, varying over different months. After considering river regulation effects from reservoirs and diversion, the regulated flow was further analyzed based on some risk indices. Drought risk was observed to be increased significantly for the periods between April–July.     

Valley floor landscape change following almost 100 years of flood embankment abandonment on a wandering gravel‐bed river

Critical to restoring the nature conservation value of many river corridors is an understanding of how alluvial landscapes will respond to cessation of river management and land use practices that have previously degraded the environment. This paper analyses changes in valley floor landforms and vegetation patch dynamics, in relation to fluvial disturbance, over a period of almost 100 years following flood embankment abandonment on a wandering gravel‐bed river, namely the River Tummel, Scotland. Such rivers were once typical of many draining upland areas of northern maritime Europe. Prior to abandonment the valley floor landscape was agriculturally dominated and the river for the most part was single thread confined between flood embankments. The pattern of landform change and vegetation patch development over time following a decision in 1903 not to maintain embankments was tracked by geomorphic and land cover mapping utilizing successive sets of aerial photography for the period 1946 to 1994. A historical context for these changes was also feasible because the channel planform in 1900 and earlier channel planform changes dating back to 1753 were known due to the availability of old maps and earlier geomorphic studies. The land cover mapping was validated by comparison of results produced from the interpretation work on the 1994 aerial photographs with the field‐based UK National Vegetation Classification protocol. The findings of the study illustrate that bordering the River Tummel fluvial landforms and vegetation patch mosaics, presumably resembling those that occurred before valley floor land use intensification, evolved in less than 50 years after flood embankment abandonment with a resultant increase in habitat diversity. The change relates primarily to flood‐induced channel planform change and moderate levels of fluvial disturbance. The general significance of this change to plant species diversity on the valley floor of the River Tummel and elsewhere is discussed as is possible implications of the upstream impoundment and scenarios for climatically induced changes in flood frequency and magnitude. The overall outcome is the strong possibility that simple changes in river management and land use practices could result in re‐establishment of the nature conservation value of similar river corridors in Europe over the medium term without active restoration efforts. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The influence of river regulation and land use on floodplain forest regeneration in the semi‐arid upper Colorado River Basin,USA

Flow regulation effects on floodplain forests in the semi‐arid western United States are moderately well understood, whereas effects associated with changes in floodplain land use are poorly documented. We mapped land cover patterns from recent aerial photos and applied a classification scheme to mainstem alluvial floodplains in 10 subjectively selected 4th order hydrologic units (subbasins) in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) in order to document land use patterns (floodplain development) and assess their effects on Fremont cottonwood forest (CF) regeneration. Three of the mainstem rivers were unregulated, five were moderately regulated and two were highly regulated. We classified polygons as Undeveloped (with two categories, including CF) and Developed (with five categories). We ground‐truthed 501 randomly selected polygons (4–28% of the floodplain area in each subbasin) to verify classification accuracy and to search for cottonwood regeneration, defined as stands established since regulation began or 1950, whichever is most recent. From 40% to 95% of the floodplain area remained undeveloped, but only 19–70% of the floodplain area was classified as forest. Regeneration occupied a mean of 5% (range 1–17%) of the floodplain. The likelihood of the presence of regeneration in a polygon was reduced 65% by development and independently in a complex manner by flow regulation. Our analyses indicate that floodplain forests may be in jeopardy on both regulated and unregulated rivers and that information on historical forest extent is needed to better understand their current status in the UCRB. Conservation efforts need to be coordinated at a regional level and address the potentially adverse affects of both flow regulation and floodplain development. Published in 2007 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.