A generalized statistical control chart for over‐ or under‐dispersed data

The Poisson distribution is a popular distribution used to describe count information, from which control charts involving count data have been established. Several works recognize the need for a generalized control chart to allow for data over‐dispersion; however, analogous arguments can also be made to account for potential under‐dispersion. The Conway–Maxwell–Poisson (COM‐Poisson) distribution is a general count distribution that relaxes the equi‐dispersion assumption of the Poisson distribution, and in fact encompasses the special cases of the Poisson, geometric, and Bernoulli distributions. Accordingly, a flexible control chart is developed that encompasses the classical Shewart charts based on the Poisson, Bernoulli (or binomial), and geometric (or negative binomial) distributions. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Flexible and Generalized Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Control Chart for Count Data

The Conway–Maxwell–Poisson distribution can be used to model under‐dispersed or over‐dispersed count data. This study proposes a flexible and generalized attribute exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA), namely GEWMA, control chart for monitoring count data. The proposed EWMA chart is based on the Conway–Maxwell–Poisson distribution. The performance of the proposed chart is evaluated in terms of run length (RL) characteristics such as average RL, median RL, and standard deviation of the RL distribution. The average RL of the proposed GEWMA chart is compared with Sellers chart. The sensitivity of the standard Poisson EWMA (PEWMA) chart is also studied and compared with the proposed GEWMA chart for under‐dispersed or over‐dispersed data. It has been observed that the PEWMA chart is very sensitive for under‐dispersed or over‐dispersed data while the proposed GEWMA is very robust. Finally, the generalization of the proposed chart to the Bernoulli EWMA, PEWMA, and geometric EWMA charts is also studied using someone simulated data sets. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A double exponentially weighted moving average control chart for monitoring COM‐Poisson attributes

The Conway‐Maxwell‐Poisson (COM‐Poisson) distribution is a two‐parameter generalization of the Poisson distribution, which can be used for overdispersed or underdispersed count data and also contains the geometric and Bernoulli distributions as special cases. This article presents a double exponentially weighted moving average control chart with steady‐state control limits to monitor COM‐Poisson attributes (regarded as CMP‐DEWMA chart). The performance of the proposed control chart has been evaluated in terms of the average, the median, and the standard deviation of the run‐length distribution. The CMP‐DEWMA control chart is studied not only to detect shifts in each parameter individually but also in both parameters simultaneously. The design parameters of the proposed chart are provided, and through a simulation study, it is shown that the CMP‐DEWMA chart is more effective than the EWMA chart at detecting downward shifts of the process mean. Finally, a real data set is presented to demonstrate the application of the proposed chart.     

A Control Chart for COM–Poisson Distribution Using Resampling and Exponentially Weighted Moving Average

In this paper, we propose a control chart using exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) statistic for count data based on the Conway–Maxwell–Poisson (called COM–Poisson) distribution. Repetitive sampling is considered by constructing two pairs of control limits for the proposed control chart. The performance of the proposed control chart is evaluated using the average run length (ARL) for various values of specified parameters. It has been observed that the proposed control chart is more efficient in terms of ARLs as compared to the existing control charts. The tables are provided and explained with the help of example. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Attribute Control Charts with Optimal Limits

A new attribute control chart is presented to monitor processes that generate count data. The economic objective of the chart is to minimize the total cost of its errors, a linear function of errors Type I and II. The proposed chart can be applied to Poisson, geometric, and negative binomial assumptions. Control limits are calculated optimally, because they are based on exact probability distributions and used to detect defined directional shifts in a process. Some numerical results are provided, and expected costs of the new chart are compared with those of a one‐sided c‐chart. Other effects such as changing the cost structure are shown graphically. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optimal one- and two-sided adaptive EWMA scheme for monitoring Poisson count data

The Poisson distribution assumption often arises in several industrial applications for modeling defects or nonconformities. In this work, we investigate the one- and two-sided performance of a new adaptive EWMA (exponentially weighted moving average)-type chart for monitoring Poisson count data. An appropriate discrete-state Markov chain technique is provided to compute the exact ARL (average run length) properties. Moreover, comparative studies are conducted to demonstrate the higher sensitivity of the proposed chart in the detection of shifts with various magnitudes. Advices on how to select the appropriate chart parameters are provided and an illustrative numerical example is proposed.     

Monitoring of zero-inflated Poisson processes with EWMA and DEWMA control charts

The zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) distribution is an extension of the ordinary Poisson distribution and is used to model count data with an excessive number of zeros. In ZIP models, it is assumed that random shocks occur with probability p, and upon the occurrence of random shock, the number of nonconformities in a product follows the Poisson distribution with parameter λ. In this article, we study in more detail the exponentially weighted moving average control chart based on the ZIP distribution (regarded as ZIP-EWMA) and we also propose a double EWMA chart with an upper time-varying control limit to monitor ZIP processes (regarded as ZIP-DEWMA chart). The two charts are studied to detect upward shifts not only in each parameter individually but also in both parameters simultaneously. The steady-state performance and the performance with estimated parameters are also investigated. The performance of the two charts has been evaluated in terms of the average and standard deviation of the run length, and compared with Shewhart-type and CUSUM schemes for ZIP distribution, it is shown that the proposed chart is very effective especially in detecting shifts in p when λ remains in control (IC) and in both parameters simultaneously. Finally, one real example is given to display the application of the ZIP charts on practitioners.     

Control Charts for Dispersed Count Data: An Overview

Control charts based on the Poisson distribution are commonly used to monitor count data in attributes. However, the Poisson distribution is based on the underlying equidispersion assumption that is limiting as discussed by different researchers in the literature. Therefore, a generalized control chart is required that can be used to monitor both overdispersed and underdispersed count data. This article reviews the methods to implement for dispersed count data and present ideas for future work in this area. A comprehensive literature review for researchers and practitioners is presented in this article. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Monitoring count data with Shewhart control charts based on the Touchard model

The most common control chart used to monitor count data is based on Poisson distribution, which presents a strong restriction: The mean is equal to the variance. To deal with under- or overdispersion, control charts considering other count distributions as Negative Binomial (NB) distribution, hyper-Poisson, generalized Poisson distribution (GPD), Conway–Maxwell–Poisson (COM-Poisson), Poisson–Lindley, new generalized Poisson–Lindley (NGPL) have been developed and can be found in the literature. In this paper we also present a Shewhart control chart to monitor count data developed on Touchard distribution, which is a three-parameter extension of the Poisson distribution (Poisson distribution is a particular case) and in the family of weighted Poisson models. Its normalizing constant is related to the Touchard polynomials, hence the name of this model. It is a flexible distribution that can account for both under- or overdispersion and concentration of zeros that are frequently found in non-Poisson count data. Consequences in terms of speed to signal departures of stability of the parameters are obtained when incorrect control limits based on non-Touchard distribution (like Poisson, NB or COM-Poisson) are used to monitor count data generated by a Touchard distribution. Numerical examples illustrate the current proposal.     

The Negative Binomial Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Chart with Estimated Control Limits

The control chart based on the compound Poisson distribution (the negative binomial exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) chart) has been shown to be more effective than the c‐chart to monitor the wafer nonconformities in semiconductor production process. The performance of the negative binomial EWMA chart is generally evaluated with the assumption that the process parameters are known. However, in many control chart applications, the process parameters are usually unknown and are required to be estimated. For an accurate parameter estimate, a very large sample size may be required, which is seldom available in the applications. This article investigates the effect of parameter estimation on the run length properties of the negative binomial EWMA charts. Using a Markov chain approach, we show that the performance of the negative binomial EWMA chart is affected when parameters are estimated compared with the known‐parameter case. We also provide recommendations regarding phase I sample sizes, smoothing constant and clustering parameter. The sample size must be quite large for the in‐control chart performance to be close to that for the known‐parameter case. Finally, a wafer process example has been used to highlight the practical implications of estimation error and to offer advice to practitioners when constructing/analysing a phase I sample. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A New Distribution‐free Control Chart for Joint Monitoring of Unknown Location and Scale Parameters of Continuous Distributions

While the assumption of normality is required for the validity of most of the available control charts for joint monitoring of unknown location and scale parameters, we propose and study a distribution‐free Shewhart‐type chart based on the Cucconi 1 statistic, called the Shewhart‐Cucconi (SC) chart. We also propose a follow‐up diagnostic procedure useful to determine the type of shift the process may have undergone when the chart signals an out‐of‐control process. Control limits for the SC chart are tabulated for some typical nominal in‐control (IC) average run length (ARL) values; a large sample approximation to the control limit is provided which can be useful in practice. Performance of the SC chart is examined in a simulation study on the basis of the ARL, the standard deviation, the median and some percentiles of the run length distribution. Detailed comparisons with a competing distribution‐free chart, known as the Shewhart‐Lepage chart (see Mukherjee and Chakraborti 2 ) show that the SC chart performs just as well or better. The effect of estimation of parameters on the IC performance of the SC chart is studied by examining the influence of the size of the reference (Phase‐I) sample. A numerical example is given for illustration. Summary and conclusions are offered. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

About Shewhart control charts to monitor the Weibull mean

In this paper, a new reparametrization expressed in terms of the process mean for Weibull distribution is studied; thus, the monitoring of the process mean can be made directly. Additionally, we call attention that the asymptotic control limits for control chart by central limit theorem (CLT) may lead to a serious erroneous decision. Definitively, they can only be used to signal small/medium shifts in the process mean but with a very very large sample size. We present guidelines for practitioners about the minimum sample size needed to match out‐of‐control average run length (ARL₁) with the exact and asymptotic control limits in function of the shape parameter after an extensive simulation study. The proposed schemes are applied to monitoring the Weibull mean parameter of the strength distribution of a carbon fibber used in composite materials.     

A probabilistic two-scale model for high-cycle fatigue life predictions

It is proposed to develop and identify a probabilistic two‐scale model for HCF that accounts for the failure of samples, but also for the thermal effects during cyclic loadings in a unified framework. The probabilistic model is based on a Poisson point process. Within the weakest link theory, the model corresponds to a Weibull law for the fatigue limits. The thermal effects can be described if one considers the same hypotheses apart from the weakest link assumption. A method of identification is proposed and uses temperature measurements to identify the scatter in an S/N curve. The validation of the model is obtained by predicting S/N curves for different effective volumes of a dual‐phase steel.     

Bayesian Control Chart for Nonconformities

The c‐chart or the control chart for nonconformities is designed for the case where one deals with the number of defects or nonconformities observed. A control chart can be developed for the total or average number of nonconformities per unit, which is well modeled by the Poisson distribution. In this paper the c‐chart will be studied, where the usual operation of the c‐chart will be extended by introducing a Bayesian approach for the c‐chart. Control chart limits, average run lengths, and false alarm rates will be determined by using a Bayesian method. These results will be compared with the results obtained when using the classical (frequentist) method. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Control Charts with Variable Dimension for Linear Combination of Poisson Variables

This article analyzes the simultaneous control of several correlated Poisson variables by using the Variable Dimension Linear Combination of Poisson Variables (VDLCP) control chart, which is a variable dimension version of the LCP chart. This control chart uses as test statistic, the linear combination of correlated Poisson variables in an adaptive way, i.e. it monitors either p₁ or p variables (p₁ < p) depending on the last statistic value. To analyze the performance of this chart, we have developed software that finds the best parameters, optimizing the out‐of‐control average run length (ARL) for a shift that the practitioner wishes to detect as quickly as possible, restricted to a fixed value for in‐control ARL. Markov chains and genetic algorithms were used in developing this software. The results show performance improvement compared to the LCP chart. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Guaranteed in‐control performance of the EWMA chart for monitoring the mean

Research on the performance evaluation and the design of the Phase II EWMA control chart for monitoring the mean, when parameters are estimated, have mainly focused on the marginal in‐control average run‐length (ARL_IN). Recent research has highlighted the high variability in the in‐control performance of these charts. This has led to the recommendation of studying of the conditional in‐control average run‐length (CARL_IN) distribution. We study the performance and the design of the Phase II EWMA chart for the mean, using the CARL_IN distribution and the exceedance probability criterion (EPC). The CARL_IN distribution is approximated by the Markov Chain method and Monte Carlo simulations. Our results show that in‐order to design charts that guarantee a specified EPC, more Phase I data are needed than previously recommended in the literature. A method for adjusting the Phase II EWMA control chart limits, to achieve a specified EPC, for the available amount of data at hand, is presented. This method does not involve bootstrapping and produces results that are about the same as some existing results. Tables and graphs of the adjusted constants are provided. An in‐control and out‐of‐control performance evaluation of the adjusted limits EWMA chart is presented. Results show that, for moderate to large shifts, the performance of the adjusted limits EWMA chart is quite satisfactory. For small shifts, an in‐control and out‐of‐control performance tradeoff can be made to improve performance.     

On the Performance of Phase‐I Bivariate Dispersion Charts to Non‐Normality

A phase‐I study is generally used when population parameters are unknown. The performance of any phase‐II chart depends on the preciseness of the control limits obtained from the phase‐I analysis. The performance of phase‐I bivariate dispersion charts has mainly been investigated for bivariate normal distribution. However, this assumption is seldom fulfilled in reality. The current work develops and studies the performance of phase‐I |S| and |G| charts for monitoring the process dispersion of bivariate non‐normal distributions. The necessary control charting constants are determined for the bivariate non‐normal distributions at nominal false alarm probability (FAP₀). The performance of these charts is evaluated and compared in a situation when samples are generated by bivariate logistic, bivariate Laplace, bivariate exponential, or bivariate t₅ distribution. The analysis shows that the proper consideration to underlying bivariate distribution in the construction of phase‐I bivariate dispersion charts is very important to give a real picture of in or out of control process status. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Change point estimation for monotonically changing Poisson rates in SPC

Knowing when a process has changed would simplify the search for and identification of the special cause. Although several change point methods have been suggested, many of them rely on the assumption that the effect present in the process output follows some known form (e.g. sudden shift or linear trend). Since processes are often influenced by several input factors, sudden shifts and linear trends do not always adequately describe the true nature of the process behavior. In this paper, we propose a maximum likelihood estimator for the change point of a Poisson rate parameter without requiring exact a priori knowledge regarding the form of the effect present. Instead, we assume the form of effect present can be characterized as belonging to the set of monotonic effects. We compare the proposed change point estimator to the commonly used maximum likelihood estimator for the process change point derived under a sudden and persistent shift assumption. We do this for a number of monotonic effects and following a signal from a Poisson CUSUM control chart. We conclude that it is better to use the proposed change point estimator when the form of the effect present is only known to be monotonic. The results show that the proposed estimator provides process engineers with an accurate and useful estimate of the last observation obtained from the unchanged process regardless of the form of monotonic effect that may be present.     

A new approach to setting control limits of cumulative count of conforming charts for high‐yield processes

Cumulative count of conforming (CCC‐r) charts are usually used to monitor non‐conforming fraction p in high‐yield processes. Existing approaches to setting the control limits may cause non‐maximal or biased in‐control average run length (ARL). Non‐maximal in‐control ARL implies that the chart might not quickly detect the upward shift of p from its nominal value p₀. On the other hand, biased in‐control ARL means that both the in‐control and out‐of‐control ARLs are inflated. This paper develops a new approach to setting control limits for CCC‐r charts with near‐maximal and near‐unbiased in‐control ARL. Experimental results show that the proposed approach is effective in terms of the maximization and unbiasedness of in‐control ARL. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.