Spatial aggregation and regional economic forecasting

This research examines the effect of spatial aggregation on the accuracy of regional economic forecasts. Literature in econometrics, business forecasting, regional economic forecasting, spatial econometrics, and spatial time series analysis suggests that the issue is far from settled at either the theoretical or empirical levels. Univariate time series analysis is used to generate both state-level and sub-state regional forecasts of monthly total employment in the State of Idaho and its economic sub-regions. All spatial aggregation methods provide accurate forecasts, but direct state-level forecasts, and disaggregation of state-level forecasts to the sub-state level are slightly more accurate than more directly disaggregated approaches. As state-level data are often subject to less measurement error, and are also more complete and timely, this result should be encouraging to regional forecasting practitioners. Received: March 6, 1995/Accepted in revised form: June 11, 1997     

A short-term forecasting model for sectoral regional employment

Problems associated with employment have become a major issue in regional economics, especially in those countries, such as Spain, where unemployment represents a serious threat to regional stability. In this context, the purpose of our paper is twofold: first, to develop a prediction instrument for regional employment, one which should be flexible and efficient; secondly, to use this instrument in order to make a short term forecast of sectoral regional employment (and the labour force) of a characteristic region of Spain, namely Aragón. The type of instrument used is an econometric time series model specified in a regional context. This means that attention must be given to the spatial structure of the labour markets. One way to introduce this effect may be through the specification of a transfer function which connects the regional market to the national one. This approach is an improvement on the traditional technique of univariate time series. Furthermore, for small labour markets it is important to assess the incidence of outliers, especially for forecasting purposes, because they distort the statistical inference. Received: November 1996 / Accepted: November 1997     

An analysis of residential space heating in New Zealand

An engineering-economic model which simulates residential energy use in New Zealand for 1976 – 2000 has been developed. This paper describes a detailed engineering analysis which was made to determine the effect of various factors on energy use for space heating. The information gained from many computer simulations is used to develop a quantitative relationship between heating energy use and major determinants-climatic location, building type and intensity of use. In view of the New Zealand attitude to home heating, particular attention was paid to the effect of intermittent heating. A method to establish national average annual energy use from regional climate and housing distribution data is presented. A set of forecasts based on three different growth scenarios was developed; the inputs and the resulting heating energy use forecasts are described. The analysis demonstrates that the potential of conservation programmes to reduce energy use, with little effect on comfort conditions, can be substantial; in fact, it is possible to achieve a negative growth. Finally, the limitations of the analysis are discussed.     

Forecasting small-area agricultural incomes using a CGE model of the Australian economy

In this paper the ORANI model, which is a large computable general equilibrium (hereafter, CGE) model of the Australian economy, is used to generate forecasts of agricultural incomes for the south-western region of Victoria. ORANI is first solved for the effects of an economic scenario on commodity output responses in a geographically defined agricultural industry of the model which encompasses the region. These responses are then used to generate output indexes in local government areas (LGAs) in the region according to their base-period commodity mixes. Finally, these projections are converted into real farm income forecasts. Our methodology breaks new ground in combining short- and long-term forecasts, and in disaggregating forecasts for a national agricultural industry to the LGA level.     

Judging regional forecasting accuracy — Sectoral employment in the San Francisco Bay area

Summary This paper has briefly discussed the problem of judging regional economic forecasting accuracy from the point of view of assessing the quality of industry employment forecasts for the SF Bay Area on an expost basis. Because of the formidable problems associated with regional economic forecasting a sophisticated econometric approach toex ante analysis was rejected in favor of accuracy analysis of employment projection along lines suggested by Henri Theil. This accuracy analysis involved a slightly modified version of Theil's inequality coefficient. The coefficient permits easy comparison of a given model's output with an assumed naive model, the comparison being predicated upon acceptance of a quadratic loss criteria. The results suggest that the SF Model functions substantially better than two versions of naive models: the no-change and the average historical change models. Forecasting with the model, however, is independent upon ability to obtain sufficiently detailed forecasts of national economic developments. While the development of econometric art is promising, no national models predict all the exogenous variables required. One model, the Wharton School's, is presently producing results which are being modified for inclusion in the exogenous variables of this model. In the absence of completion of this task, estimates prepared for the State of California's quarterly forecasting model have been used to generate forecasts to 1970, Tests of these forecasts over the period 1964–1966 suggest that errors in the exogenous variables seriously affect the outcome of the regional model. Nonetheless, the results are still superior to the naive model against which the regional model has been tested.     

青岛市水资源承载力预测评价研究

水资源承载力的评价对发展地区经济具有重要意义,因此水资源的可持续利用理应受到人们的关注.通过对比水资源承载力的各评价方法,建立了综合评价模型,确立了评价的指标体系,利用均方差决策综合分析方法计算了评价指标的权重.最后,对青岛市水资源承载力按照不同时间段进行了预测评价分析,并根据当地实际,提出了提高当地水资源承载力的对策.     

Interdistrict migration in Great Britain 1980-81: a multistream model with a commuting option

"In this paper an existing three-stream model of migration is adopted and extended to provide a first representation of district-district flows within Great Britain in 1980-81. The extended model incorporates an option for prospective migrants to choose commuting rather than a residential move after finding a new workplace, and employs a logistic function of distance in the regional or environmental stream where migrational opportunities tend not to be independent. Results are presented for the distribution of flows between local, regional, and national streams and for the geographical pattern of pushes and pulls in each."     

Some limitations of regional econometric models

Conclusions Because of the many theoretical and statistical problems inherent in the construction of regional econometric models, I believe that considerable caution should be exercised by anyone who tries to use one of these models. I intentionally chose to emphasize the negative aspect of these models because I believe there is widespread misuse of econometrics and I fear that many people do not realize how tenuous the conclusions drawn from econometric models really are. This does not mean that I recommend the abandonment of econometric techniques in regional analysis. Instead, I wish to emphasize the weaknesses of regression analysis which are usually not treated by model builders.Regional models may be useful in providing short term forecasts and in assessing the immediate effects of policy decisions. The national econometric models have had limited successes in this area, and it is possible that regional econometric models will also serve in this area.However, given the structural problems of econometric models and the dubious forecasting properties of national models when compared with simple projections of time trends, I remain skeptical as to whether regional econometric models are worth building for structural analyses or as long term forecasting aides. Probably, the best reasons for employing regional econometric models in these capacities are that these models yield information which may be better than nothing at all and that there still are no better techniques available.This research was sponsored by a grant from the Economic Development Administration (project number OER-224-G-68-12). The conclusions found in this paper are not necessarily those of the Economic Development Administration.     

Statistical analysis of environmental data as the basis of forecasting: an air quality application

A statistical analysis technique is used for the development of an environmental forecasting tool. More specifically, a stochastic autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is developed for maximum ozone concentration forecasts in Athens, Greece. For this purpose, the Box-Jenkins approach is applied for the analysis of a 9-year air quality observation record. The model developed is checked against real data for 1 year. Results show a good index of agreement, accompanied by a weakness in forecasting alarms. Finally, suggestions are made regarding the enrichment of the approach used in order to improve the forecasting performance.     

Short-run maquiladora employment dynamics in Tijuana

The Tijuana maquiladora sector has grown enormously over the past two decades. Short-term time series characteristics of this segment of the regional economy are analyzed in an attempt to clarify labor market behavior associated with this remarkable performance. Parameter estimation is accomplished using linear transfer function analysis. Data are drawn from the January 1980–December 2000 sample period. Empirical results indicate that real wage rates, maquiladora plants, United States industrial activity, and the real exchange rate of the peso play significant roles in determining month-to-month fluctuations in maquiladora employment. Sub-sample simulation exercises are conducted using a random walk benchmark in order to examine forecast accuracy. Empirical results indicate that the linear transfer function technique provides relatively accurate forecasts all step-lengths.Helpful comments were provided by Tschangho John Kim, Tim Roth, Richard Posthuma, Henry Herzog, Mohammed Mohsin, and two anonymous referees. Partial financial support was provided by El Paso Electric Company, City of El Paso Office of Economic Development, and Wells Fargo Bank of El Paso.Views expressed in this study are strictly those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or of the Federal Reserve System.Received: October 2002/Accepted: October 2003     

Forecasting on the PC: A Planner's Guide to Time Series Packages

This article reviews three types of microcomputer time series packages: general-purpose statistical packages with time series modules, business forecasting packages, and econometric packages. First I describe alternative approaches to generating forecasts. Next I evaluate 15 packages in terms of ease-of-use, computational abilities, model diagnostics, and quality of graphics, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of each package. The review concludes with recommendations on those packages that are best suited for specific planning applications.     

Management education for effective technology transfer

Management in an information economy can only succeed by employing IT as a tool. To facilitate this, and for education to provide effective technology transfer in an information economy, the fundamental nature of IT must be re-examined, and new educational models, techniques and tools developed. This should enable management to capture value in a time of continuous change, form which a model of management capable of exploiting IT would emerge. The authors review the impact of post-industrial models of management on effective IT integration into business practice and outline an organisation model for the `technology of management'. In a scenario built around a fictitious organisation, the authors develop three models which describe generic approaches, and examine issues confronting the organisation in integrating IT into its business. The models are the machine model, hybrid model and organisation model     

Regional competitive advantage and growth in national interindustry markets

A region's producing sectors compete in national markets with other regions, and its output growth therefore depends on changes in the region's sectoral input costs relative to those in other regions. In this model, production costs are taken as dependent upon wages and other payments to local factors and upon costs of interindustry inputs, the producers of which pay wages and other factor costs locally or, if the inputs are imported, in other regions. After consideration of conditions by which regional commodity supply functions can be aggregated, sectoral commodity prices and the regional production of national and local goods are endogenously determined in a computable equilibrium system within a balanced regional model framework.     

The effects of growth upon local inflation rates

This paper investigates the impact of regional growth upon the local rate of consumer inflation. To capture both the temporal and spatial aspects in the study, a pooled time-series/cross-section approach was used. The analysis is based upon 1965–82 data for the 22 metropolitan areas for which the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics compiled CPI series. With a model specifying local inflation to be primarily determined by national trends but also influenced by local conditions, both area population and income growth were identified as positively related to local inflation rates. Using disaggregated price series, the effects of population growth were found to work solely through impacts upon the housing sector. The econometric procedures were performed upon the ASU IBM 3000 computer system using the SAS PROC TSCS.     

膜型网壳结构巨型网格结构的整体与局部稳定性研究

针对子结构为单层膜型网壳的圆柱面交叉立体桁架系巨型网格结构 ,分析了结构的构成、形体参数 ,建立了几何非线性力学模型 ,编制了相应的稳定分析程序。着重研究了整个结构的稳定性能、失稳形式 (局部失稳与整体失稳 )、局部失稳与整体失稳模态等 ,就不同的失稳形式进行了一系列的参数分析 ,研究了各参数对结构的失稳形式及极限载荷的影响 ,找出了不同跨度结构在整体与局部失稳临界状态某些参数的取值规律     

SUSTAINABLE URBANISM IN ABU DHABI: TRANSFERRING THE VANCOUVER MODEL

Notwithstanding the role of cross‐national transfer of planning knowledge globally, there is a dearth of in‐depth research that examines the transfer process. In recent years, Vancouver has garnered international acclaim as one of the world's emerging “eco‐cities,” and the planning model applied there has begun to be emulated in numerous foreign contexts. As the capital of the United Arab Emirates and an emerging global business center, Abu Dhabi has sought the expertise of leading Vancouverite planners to develop a design and regulatory framework that is culturally distinctive. This article examines the knowledge transfer process with particular emphasis on the authority hierarchies formed and their impact on the adaptation of transferred knowledge. Using in‐depth interviews and an analysis of the planning documents, this article provides a micro‐level investigation of the interpersonal and institutional relationships. Such relationships explicate the tools utilized by the transfer agents in their attempts to contextualize, adapt, and operationalize imported knowledge. We propose a model that maps the various levels of authority and links them to the knowledge flow between local acquiring agents and foreign transferring agents. The application of this model to the Abu Dhabi scenario reveals a complex web of interactions between the local and foreign planners involved, across multiple institutional levels.     

Understanding regional variation in entrepreneurial activity and entrepreneurial attitude in Europe

Differences in entrepreneurial activity and entrepreneurial attitude are substantial and persistent across nations and regions. However, studies on entrepreneurship that encompass regions and countries at the same time are lacking. This paper explains both national and regional differences in entrepreneurial attitude and activity for 127 regions in 17 European countries, based on Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) data. We reveal the importance of institutional factors and economic and demographic attributes to variations in regional entrepreneurial attitude and activity. Our findings point at the relevance of distinguishing between components of entrepreneurial attitudes, i.e. fear of failure in starting business, perceptions on start-up opportunities and self-assessment of personal capabilities to start a firm. We find different determinants of these components, suggesting that they reflect different aspects of entrepreneurial attitude. In explaining regional prevalence rates of phases in entrepreneurial activity (nascent, baby business, established business) we find significant contributions of entrepreneurial attitude components. Urban regions and regions with high levels of nearby start-up examples show relatively high rates of early-stage entrepreneurship. A large number of start-up procedures does not discourage early-stage entrepreneurship.     

基于扩散指数模型的长沙房地产景气循环研究

为实现长沙房地产业持续健康发展,按照景气循环原理,收集长沙市2002~2014 年房地产市场各项指标数据,建立房地产景气循环评价指标体系。基于扩散指数模型,利用时间序列法测定各指标循环波动值,对长沙市房地产市场先行、同步、滞后景气扩散指数进行综合测度并绘制房地产市场景气循环走势图。根据同步扩散指数曲线与历史数据分析长沙市 2002~2014 年房地产市场运行轨迹,运用先行扩散指数和滞后扩散指数曲线分别对长沙市房地产市场景气情况进行预测和验证。应用该模型能够有效判断长沙房地产景气循环转折点并进行短期未来发展趋势预测,更好地实现房地产市场景气监测,为政府、消费者和房地产开发商三方投资决策提供参考     

A forecasting territorial model of regional growth: the MASST model

The profound and unique institutional and economic processes which characterise the historic period Europe is facing and will face call for appropriate methodologies to forecast the impact of these processes on Europe and its territory. Few regional econometric models as the basis of forecasting exercises have been developed, either replicating national macroeconomic models, or through complex systems of equations for each region that are linked to both the national aggregate economy and to the other regional economies through input—output technical coefficients that determine intra- and inter-regional trade and output. This paper presents a new regional forecasting model, labelled MASST (macroeconomic, sectoral, social and territorial), built on a modern conceptualization of regional growth. In MASST, regional growth is conceived as a competitive, endogenous and cumulative process in which social and a spatial elements play an important role: local resource endowments and increasing returns in the form of agglomeration economies and spatial growth spillovers perform an important role in the explanation of regional growth differentials. MASST is generative in nature, since local factors matter, but it is also a model that considers a second family of development factors, these being macroeconomic and national. This structure of the model gives rise to the possibility of producing an efficient interactive national—regional approach, combining top-down and bottom-up approaches.     

Okun’s law,asymmetries and regional spillovers: evidence from Virginia metropolitan statistical areas and the District of Columbia

The purpose of this paper was to examine the strength of the relationship between unemployment and GDP, to determine the extent to which this relationship has been stable in Virginia metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) during the Great Recession and to examine the importance of regional spillovers in Okun’s law. Our results suggest that regional spillovers are very important in local labor markets and in defining the relationship observed at the national level. The MSA level data further supports asymmetries in Okun’s law. The weaker direct relationship between GDP and unemployment at the local level suggests that while federal fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate aggregate demand during periods of economic recovery may be effective, over time, in reducing the unemployment rate, local economic development policies are not effective in achieving the substantial short-term reduction in unemployment needed during recovery. The strong business cycle effects observed in the state MSA, relative to the U.S., suggests that countercyclical policies are fundamentally important and should be targeted more generally to exploit regional spillovers.