Regional adjustment and migration flows in Canada, 1971 to 1981

The primary purpose of this paper is to consider and test for various interlinkages between migration flows, and also between migration and employment change. Three types of migration flows are distinguished: domestic in-migration and outmigration, and net international migration. The three migration equations are embedded in a model of regional adjustment that also includes regional employment and wage changes as endogenous variables. The data base utilizes Canadian census statistics for 1971 and 1981 in a cross-section analysis with 183 regions represented by counties, or theri equavalents. The empirical performance of the various interlinkages is broadly in line with expectations, but the results raise some important questions about interpretation.     

Labor market behavior in Washington: A cointegration approach

This study found a long run equilibrium relationship among population, labor force participation rate and employment, in which population is positively related to employment and negatively related to labor force participation rate. We proved that employment growth from new business investment causes increase in population in the state of Washington in spite of its beautiful environment and amenities. The causality does not operate in reverse way. We decomposed the time series into stationary components and non-stationary components and interpreted each component on the basis of historical economic condition of Washington. The response of the labor force participation rate to an impulse in employment supports Bartik's (1993) and Yeo and Holland's (2004) findings. Obviously the result is the opposite of Blanchard and Katz's (1992) finding that the long-run effect of job growth on the labor force participation rate is negligible. With regard to the party who benefits from job growth, we suspect that most of new jobs are captured by in-migrants because the pattern of the stationary component of employment and net migration is quite similar and the impulse response of population is significantly higher than that of employment.     

A model of urbanization with nonlinear migration flows

"This paper seeks an appropriate specification of the migration exchange between rural and urban areas so that the implied evolution of the degree of urbanization agrees with its commonly observed S-shape. After demonstrating that the gross migration flows between rural and urban areas should be specified as nonlinear functions of the population in the origin sector, the paper introduces a model in which such flows are represented by gravity-type functional forms....[The model] can be used to give insights into the time paths of three basic urbanization variables: the urban-rural growth rate differential, the rural net outmigration rate, and the urban net immigration rate. All take on a zero value at the two extremes of the urbanization process and evolve in between according to a bell-shaped curve. These findings are illustrated by applying the model to data from the United States for the period 1790-1980."     

Migration and the quasi-labor market in Russia

"This paper explores the twin concepts of labor demand and labor mobility during the Soviet and post-Soviet periods. The study uses a detailed data set on labor stock, industrial labor demand, and labor flows for the 1980s in the Yaroslavl' Oblast, and data on migration and regional labor markets for all Russian regions in the 1990s. Contextual features, such as the social contract, full employment, methods of labor allocation, and a generally low rate of geographic mobility, distinguish the centrally planned quasi-labor market from the labor market in capitalist democracies. The findings suggest that net in-migration induces employment change in the current period rather than in a future period. The job creation effects appear concurrent with migration during the Soviet period. In the post-Soviet period, migration and employment relationships are not predictable based on the same relationships during the Soviet period."     

The effect of income taxes on interstate migration: an analysis by age and race

The topic of interstate migration and the effects of taxes on migration have been extensively studied. Prior research has examined not only many possible determinants of migration but also the migrations of various populations, including the elderly, African-Americans, and the college educated. The present study will attempt to differentiate itself from this prior research by looking at the effect of income taxes on the interstate migration of both whites and African-Americans at various ages. Another distinguishing feature of the present study is that it will use data from the NLSY-Geocode, a data set not used previously for this type of study. Results of the present study are similar to the results of prior works; income taxes have an effect on migration for most races and age groups. Individuals move from states with high income taxes to states with low income taxes; these results corroborate the results obtained from the use of aggregate, state-level data. In addition, results of the present study suggest that non-economic factors, such as ties to a particular state and changes in employment status, are also important factors in an individual’s migration decision.     

An interregional labour market model incorporating vacancy chains and social security

This paper deals with three aspects of interregional demo-economic models which are important with respect to the analysis of regional labour market developments. First, attention is paid to forecasts of the exogenous regional variables, such as investments, exports, etc. Because data at the regional level are usually scarce, it is suggested to make these projections by means of a top-down model. Second, the social security sector is incorporated in the model framework, because changes in social security benefits, which are common in many Western countries nowaday, usually have substantial impacts on regional economic and demographic structures. Third, a vacancy chain model instead of a simple employment growth equation is tied to the standard demo-economic model framework. In this way not only employment growth but also migration, job mobility and related income effects can be taken into account.     

Income distribution analysis at the state Planning Region level

This study examines the role of subnational governmental units in the “distribution branch” of the Musgrave conceptual fiscal frame-work. The study analyzes the size distribution of family personal income in the 19 county North Central Planning Region of Texas. The measure of inequality used is the Gini ratio (Lorenz curves are also presented) which is calculated for each county and for the region for the years 1950, 1960 and 1970. Multiple regression analysis is then used to explain the variation in distributional inequality among the counties. The variables tested in the regression for each year included: median family income, manufacturing employment, rural-farm residence, an index of inequality in the distribution of education, female labor force participation, race, female family headship and age distribution of the population. The explanatory power of the variables varied from year to year and only the best results are presented. The results indicated that inequality increases with (1) the proportion of non-whites in the population, (2) the percent of the population over 65 years of age and (3) the degree of inequality in the distribution of education. In light of the results, the authors conclude that subnational governments could play a positive role in the activities of the Musgrave “distribution branch.” National programs with greater distributional equality as their objective could be reinforced through the activities of such subnational governmental units as regional councils of government. The COG roles in regional manpower planning and regional transportation planning are suggested as areas where regional programs can influence in a positive fashion some of the factors explaining income inequality.     

The economic interdependence of contiguous border cities: The twin city multiplier

Twin cities on international borders are common throughout the world. Although located in different countries their economic growth and current levels of income and employment are typically jointly determined through not only each city's basic economic activity but also international trade and resource flows. This paper combines elements of the regional economic multiplier and the foreign trade multiplier models to formulate a twin city multiplier model which shows the levels of income and changes in the levels of income in each border city as a result of changes in economic activity in one twin city.Appreciation is expressed to Ildefonso Guajardo Villareal for his comments on an earlier draft.     

Dynamic variable input-output (VIO) model and price-sensitive dynamic multipliers

The conventional multipliers of macro economic models, econometric models, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models with fixed industrial purchase I/O coefficients, and Leontief Input-Output (I/O) models are price-insensitive. On the other hand, the multipliers of the Dynamic Variable Input-Output (VIO) model have the advantage of being price-sensitive. The Dynamic VIO model extends the static single regional version of the Multi-Regional Variable Input-Output (MRVIO) model, which is a hybrid of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model and the further developed Leontief's dynamic Input-Output (I/O) model. The Dynamic VIO model, which incorporates time dimensions, can describe the actual situations more accurately while maintaining computational simplicity. Under this model, both technical coefficients and capital stock requirement coefficients include price terms, and they become variable instead of being fixed. By using the 15 sector industrial transaction table derived from the 1987 U.S. Benchmark input-output table, and by assuming constant technology during the years of 1987–1991, I estimate the dynamic equilibrium price changes due to wage rate changes and measure the effects of the relative equilibrium price changes on output, income, and employment multipliers that are spread over the time periods. The dynamic multipliers of the Dynamic VIO model include both pure spending effect and substitution effect in the presence of input cost changes such as wage rate changes. The substitution effect is the relative equilibrium price change effect, and it occurs due to the substituting behavior of firms and consumers seeking cheaper products. Actual economic impacts that we observe in a given time period, as the result of government spendings, are the total cumulative effects of the current and previous time periods. The empirical analysis shows that wage rate changes during 1987 through 1991 give statistically significant effect on mean equilibrium price changes for the total of five years and for each time period except the immediate time period (lag 0) under 1% level of significance. As for the immediate time period (lag 0), mean equilibrium prices are same between the two groups of wage rate-change and no-wage rate-change cases. Nevertheless, equilibrium price changes affect output, income, and employment multipliers significantly. Hypothesis tests show that significant differences exist in mean output, income, and employment multipliers between the two groups of wage rate-change and no-wage rate-change cases for each time lag (1–4) and for the total of five time lags. The dependent t-test is applied to the paired data. The study concludes that substitution effects do alter mean output, income, and employment multipliers for each time lag (1–4) and for the total of all five time lags under 1% level of significance. Furthermore, the study finds that mean multipliers of output, income, and employment under the wage rate-change case are smaller than those under the no-wage rate-change case. For the immediate time period (lag 0), the significance level should be increased to 2%, 13%, and 5%, respectively, to support the claim that mean multipliers of output, income, and employment are different between the two groups, and that mean multipliers of output, income, and employment of the wage rate-change case are smaller than those of the no-wage-rate change case. These strong empirical results demonstrate the capability and usefulness of the Dynamic VIO model for measuring government spending effects in terms of price-sensitive dynamic multipliers. Received: May 2000 / Accepted: August 2003 I am grateful to Roger R. Stough and three anonymous referees for valuable comments and suggestions. If there is any error, it is solely mine.     

Population migration and economic restructuring in the United States

"This article demonstrates that sectoral employment shifts associated with the migration pattern changes of the 1970s are very different than those for the period 1955-60 to 1965-70. Changing competitiveness for jobs in manufacturing and other traditional basic sectors of the economy cannot account for the greatly accelerated levels of core-periphery net outflow that have been the dominant characteristic of interstate movement during the 1970s and 1980s. Instead, an interconnected set of activities that includes government, services, trade, and construction is associated with the broadscale shifts in the geographic pattern of the United States' population. The causal linkage from migration to employment change assumed heightened importance during the 1970s."     

从“半工半耕”到“半工伴读”--教育驱动下的县域城镇化新特征

随着农村家庭的决策考量由“经济收益最大化”转向“以教育为核心的综合收益最大化”,以往“半工半耕”的家庭分工模式呈现新特征。以皖北太和县城的农村学生家庭为案例对象,剖析教育驱动下农村家庭分工布局模式的特征与机制。研究发现,一方面家庭出于代际阶层流动的需求而将子女送入城镇就读,部分家庭成员出于教育抚养的考量而进城陪读;另一方面,教育竞争导致了乡-城流动过程中成本激增,进一步推动家庭主要劳动力异地务工以提高劳动收益。在以皖北为代表的中国高人口密度、高人口流出地区,教育驱动下的农村家庭形成了本地就读、异地务工的“半工伴读”分工模式,并在宏观上体现为本地与异地相交织的城镇化特征。“半工伴读”的分工模式使得家庭在多维尺度上离散,是具有阶段性特征的中国城镇化的独特现象。未来随着本地就业机会的不断增多、市民化进程的不断推进,以家庭为单元的分工模式在空间上会逐步走向收敛,回归更为完整、健康的城镇化模式。     

The regional labor market adjustment process: Determinants of changes in rates of labor force participation,unemployment, and migration

This paper employs a simultaneous-equations model to examine the regional labor market adjustment process for a sample of United States counties over the 1960–1970 period. The interaction between employment change and migration is well known, but that between employment change and labor force participation has been largely neglected. Labor force participation response, especially among women, is shown to be an important endogenous element in the labor market adjustment process. Important asymmetries are also evident between growing and declining regions, and these asymmetries suggest that the well-established link between employment and migration may have more force in growing than in declining areas.This study was supported by a grant from the Economic Development Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce.     

An Exploration Of The Relationship Between Changing Inequality Of Individual,Household And Regional Inequality In Australian Cities

The changes in neighbourhood income inequality noted in Gregory and Hunter (1995) indicate that significant changes in the nature of Australian cities have occurred since the mid-1970s. This paper seeks to establish that the regional dimension of income inequality is becoming a more important component of overall inequality. Furthermore, low status and high status areas are becoming increasingly homogenous with more low income households living together in low status neighbourhoods and higher income households living elsewhere. The inadequacies of the regional income data currently available means that it is difficult to explore changes in social welfare in any detail.     

1980年代以来我国区域城市化差异的演变——及其影响因素

综述了关于我国城市化区域差异的研究成果,运用差异系数、基尼系数和泰尔指数测算了1980年代以来我国城市化水平的区域差异。研究发现全国省际城市化水平的相对差异一直在缩小,但2000年后发生了变化——全国分省的相对差异加速缩小,而三大区域之间的相对差异变得更加显著,并主导了全国的区域城市化差异。不仅如此,三大区域的绝对差异也越来越占据主导地位。进一步的研究发现,除了历史、地理和区位因素外,区域政策、经济发展差异、经济全球化、行政区划调整和省际人口迁移影响了区域城市化差异的演变趋势。最后本文提出了对未来城市化区域差异演变趋势的判断,并阐述了缩小城市化区域差异的现实政策意义。     

Self‐employment and local economic performance: Evidence from US counties*

This study explores the relationship between self‐employment and income growth, employment growth, and change in poverty in metro and non‐metro areas in the United States using county‐level panel data. We investigate the impact of the relative size of the self‐employment sector measured by the share of non‐farm proprietorships (NFPs) in total full and part‐time employment on three key economic performance indicators. We first estimate an income growth model to analyse the effects of self‐employment on income growth. Then we investigate the independent effects of self‐employment on employment growth and changes in family poverty rates. Our results indicate that higher self‐employment rates are associated with statistically significant increases over time in income and employment growth, and reductions in poverty rates in non‐metro counties. We find similar effects on metro county income and employment, but not on poverty dynamics.     

重大建设项目工程移民的社会适应研究——基于性别差异视角

工程移民的社会适应问题是中国城市化进程和重大建设工程的重要议题。以三峡工程秭归县城镇移民 231 份调查数据为基础,构建文化、心理、身份和经济四位一体影响因素体系,通过统计分析探究性别差异视角下工程移民社会适应的形成机理。研究结果表明:男性和女性工程移民在迁后社会适应程度相当,但两者社会适应的形成机理不尽相同,存在较明显的性别差异特征;工程移民群体的社会适应影响因素较多,居住条件、排挤歧视和借贷环境是最受关注的因素;男性工程移民社会适应主要受到经济收入和就业等因素影响,而女性工程移民则更关注迁后家庭发展。     

An exploration of relationships between urbanization and per capita income: United States and countries of the world

The relationship between urbanization and level of income has been the subject of considerable theoretical debate and empirical study for many years. However, little recent work has been done to determine whether or not previous findings still hold, and there has been even less multi-country analysis to explore the degree of generality. Analysis of data for metropolitan areas in the United States from 1970 to 1990 indicates per capita income increases directly with population size. For states of the United States and 113 countries for 1960 and 1980 a strong positive relationship exists and holds temporally between level of per capita Gross Domestic Product and percent of the population that is urban.     

就业压力下推进城镇化的产业结构战略选择

就业是我国目前和今后较长历史时期经济社会和城镇化发展面临的重大挑战 ,城镇失业、农村富余劳动力转移和新增就业人口的重叠对城镇化发展而言既是动力 ,又是巨大的压力。城镇化的实质是空间结构的调整优化和非农就业的增长。应在促进经济增长的同时 ,根据比较优势原则 ,合理确定国家和地区的产业结构 ,采取促进经济发展和就业增加的“两条腿走路战略” ,有重点地发展高新技术产业和对就业带动作用明显的制造业和服务业 ,改革对城镇非正式就业的管理 ,推进城镇化在经济发展和非农就业增长拉动下的可持续发展     

城镇化进程中家庭离散化及其应对策略初探

通过逻辑思辨和实证调研分析,在对家庭的城镇化类型进行分析基础上,界定了我国家庭在城镇化进程中"离散"现象的具体内涵及其负面影响,并以长三角核心区和南京都市区不同地区为例进行了分层次调研和分析,对区域城际尺度、城郊乡村地区、城市外围新区三种类型地区的家庭进行了大范围随机问卷调研,对其家庭成员和家庭的就业、居住、公共服务在空间中的离散模式进行了研究。在此基础上,提出以家庭居住-就业-公共服务三元耦合式新型城镇化来促进家庭由离散走向聚合的对策建议。     

The wax and wane of interstate migration patterns in the U.S.A. in the 1980s: a demographic effectiveness field perspective

The author analyzes the structure of temporal changes in U.S. internal migration over the period 1980-1988 using data from matched income tax returns. "A number of hypotheses are explored about how in-migration and out-migration fields wax and wane, thereby giving rise to the overall shifts in demographic effectiveness measured over the period. The results highlight the characteristics of recent (1980-88) shifts in U.S. internal migration patterns including net migration reversals from strong net in-migration to strong net out-migration for states with significant energy sectors, the stanching of net out-migration from many states of the American manufacturing belt, the turnaround to net in-migration for all of northern New England, and the continuance of highly effective net in-migration to the sunbelt states of Florida, Arizona, and Nevada."