基于动态权重的风电功率组合预测方法研究

基于定权重的风电功率单一预测方法,不能够及时调整邻近时间内的预测精准度,造成与实测值误差较大,为此提出基于动态权重的风电功率组合预测方法。通过清洗风电功率预测中的异常数据,确定受波动性影响的风电功率参数值;基于动态权重算法,实现风电功率组合的预测。通过实验对比结果表明,基于动态权重的风电功率组合预测方法,能够有效降低原始风速对风电功率数据波动的影响,误差率相对较低。     

基于IAGA-LSSVM的切削加工表面粗糙度的智能预测

提出了一种基于改进自适应遗传算法与最小二乘支持向量机(IAGA-LSSVM)的切削加工表面粗糙度的智能预测方法。通过设定LS-SVM模型主要参数的取值范围,采用IAGA进行寻优,提高了LS-SVM预测模型的精度。最后采用平均相对预测误差作为检验指标,比较了多元线性回归模型、BP神经网络模型、AGA-LSSVM模型及IAGA-LSSVM模型对表面粗糙度的预测能力。结果表明:IAGA-LSSVM预测模型的建模时间更短,平均相对预测误差更小,对切削加工表面粗糙度的预测具有一定的参考意义。     

基于LS-SVM的机床加工误差预测模型探讨

提出一种基于最小二乘支持向量机(LS-SVM)的机床加工误差回归模型和预测方法,给出了相应的步骤和算法.通过与BP神经网络和RBF神经网络预测方法比较,仿真结果表明,在较少的误差数据条件下,该模型能够有效的描述和预测加工误差的变化,且模型预测误差比神经网络模型小60%左右;应用该预测模型预测机床加工误差有更高的预测精度,对其实施补偿和控制,将有效提高机床的加工精度.     

侧铣加工刀具回转轮廓误差预测技术研究

在侧铣加工中,刀具磨损和变形引起的刀具回转轮廓误差在实际加工前难以准确预测。提出一种工件形状刀具轮廓映射的辨识试验方法来获取加工过程刀具回转轮廓误差,并通过多因素正交试验获取了不同工况下刀具回转轮廓误差数据库。基于误差数据,采用最小二乘支持向量机（LS-SVM）技术建立了刀具回转轮廓误差预测模型。运用遗传算法优化对所提模型有重要影响的核函数参数和错误惩罚因子, 建立了基于遗传算法优化的最小二乘支持向量机(GA-LS-SVM)模型,并与未经遗传算法优化的LS-SVM模型进行了对比,试验结果表明,GA-LS-SVM预测模型能更好地适用于刀具回转轮廓误差预测。     

基于海上风电功率特性的预测误差对比分析

海上风电功率预测是大型风电场并网稳定运行的先决条件,风电功率预测的准确性对提高电网的质量和一致性具有重要作用。为提高风电功率预测误差,采用自回归移动平均(ARIMA)和改进的k-最近邻(kNN)两种预测方法对海上风电功率进行预测,结果表明,风电功率根据不同的特性可以用不同的预测方法进行预测,预测误差小于20%,通过改进预测方法,能够提高预测精度。最后,通过具体算例对改进的两种预测方法进行了验证,并将结果进行了对比,验证了两种算法在不同预测时间范围的有效性。     

基于PSO优化的LS-SVM的混沌时间序列预测

在非线性混沌动力学的发展中,混沌时间序列预测已成为一个非常重要的研究方向。最小二乘支持向量机（LS-SVM）是标准支持向量机的再形成形式,包含了分类、回归、预测等多种算法。微粒群优化（PSO）是当今智能寻优算法中较为简单快速的算法。运用PSO算法可以很好地解决LS—SVM的参数优化问题。针对以上问题。提出了基于PSO优化的LS—SVM预测方法。并对混沌时间序列预测进行了仿真。仿真结果证明了该算法的有效性。     

风电场混合储能的小波包-SOC分区功率控制

大规模可再生能源并网引起的一系列问题使得储能技术成为未来能源转型的重要依托与突破方向。为减小系统调节压力,采用蓄电池和超级电容组成混合储能以补偿风功率预测误差。利用小波包分解可获取信号更多细节信息的优势,根据混合储能的性能特点和响应速度,确定分解层次并实现混合储能充放电功率的初始分配。考虑实际应用中容量约束,提出荷电状态(SOC)分区功率控制策略对储能的功率指令进行修正,实现充放电功率的优化分配,提高补偿效果。应用结果表明,所提策略能够充分利用混合储能互补的性能优势有效补偿风功率预测误差,同时保证储能的长期稳定运行。     

滚动轴承振动的非线性超混沌特性研究

为研究滚动轴承不同振动状态的非线性混沌特性,采用不同方法从多角度进行探讨和判定。使用递归图分析振动的周期性,然后采用CLY方法对信号的混沌特性进行判定,再结合功率谱探讨振动的频率分布特征,最后采用最小二乘支持向量机(LS-SVM)方法,通过对各状态振动的Lyapunov指数谱进行计算,研究轴承振动的超混沌特性。研究结果表明:滚动轴承不同状态振动信号的非线性混沌特征存在明显的差异,但均表现为混沌特征并且都是超混沌的,且故障状态越大,振动的超混沌性越强。     

基于 IWOA-SVM 的风电功率预测

针对支持向量机预测精度低、收敛速度慢等问题,提出一种改进鲸鱼算法优化支持向量机的风电功率预测模型。将 Tent 混沌映射引入鲸鱼算法中,使初始种群的分布更加均匀;由于随机抽取猎物具有盲目性,不能充分结合迭代经验对种群进行更新,采用轮盘赌法寻找目标猎物来加快鲸鱼算法的收敛速度,得到改进鲸鱼算法优化支持向量机的风电功率预测模型。将该模型应用到我国东北某处风电场进行风电功率预测,并与其他常用的功率预测模型进行对比分析,仿真结果表明,该模型具有更高的预测精度。     

基于LS-SVM的机械式温度仪表误差预测研究

机械式温度仪表在测量过程中易受到环境温度、毛细管长度以及内部机构影响而出现测量精度不高、非线性的情况,针对这些问题以液体压力式温度仪表作为研究对象,提出了基于最小二乘支持向量机(LS-SVM)的温度误差建模预测的方法。通过分析液体压力式温度仪表的测温结构和误差影响因素,将环境温度及毛细管长度等特征参数作为模型输入,将误差值及误差随毛细管长度的变化率作为输出。根据回归预测的原理,利用网格搜索和交叉验证的方法寻找最优参数组合,建立液体压力式温度仪表的误差预测模型。实验结果表明,该模型可以有效地描述温度误差,并将此建模方法与常用的支持向量机回归建模方法进行比较,基于LS-SVM得到的误差预测模型精度较高、推广能力强,可以对机械式温度仪表进行补偿,为探索机械式温度仪表自适应补偿机构提供理论依据。     

Minimal Realization of Linear Graph Models for Multi-physics Systems

An engineering system may consist of several different types of components,belonging to such physical"domains"as mechanical,electrical,fluid,and thermal.It is t...     

INTEGRAL EQUATION METHOD＇S APPLICATION IN HOLE-EDGE STRESS OF COMPOSITE MATERIAL PLATE WITH DIFFERENT SHAPED HOLES

The strength of composite plate with different hole-shapes is always one of the most important but complicated issues in the application of the composite material. The holes will lead to mutations and discontinuity to the structure. So the hole-edge stress concentration is always a serious phenomenon. And the phenomenon makes the structure strength decrease very quickly to form dangerous weak points. Most partial damage begins from these weak points. According to the complex variable functions theory, the accurate boundary condition of composite plate with different hole-shapes is founded by conformal mapping method to settle the boundary condition problem of complex hole-shapes. Composite plate with commonly hole-shapes in engineering is studied by several complex variable stress fimction. The boundary integral equations are founded based on exact boundary conditions. Then the exact hole-edge stress analytic solution of composite plate with rectangle holes and wing manholes is resolved. Both of offset axis loadings and its influences on the stress concentration coefficient of the hole-edge are discussed. And comparisons of different loads along various offset axis on the hole-edge stress distribution of orthotropic plate with rectangle hole or wing manhole are made. It can be concluded that hole-edge with continuous variable curvatures might help to decrease the stress concentration coefficient; and smaller angle of outer load and fiber can decrease the stress peak value.     

Non-monotonic material contrast in scanning ion and scanning electron images

30 keV Ga⁺ focused ion beam induced secondary electron (iSE) imaging was used to determine the relative contrast between several materials. The iSE signal compared from C, Si, Al, Ti, Cr, Ni, Cu, Mo, Ag, and W metal layers does not decrease with an increase in target atomic number Z₂, and shows a non-monotonic relationship between contrast and Z₂. The non-monotonic relationship is attributed to periodic fluctuations of the stopping power and sputter yield inherent to the ion–solid interactions. In addition, material contrast from electron-induced secondary electron (eSE) and backscattered electron (BSE) images using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) also shows non-monotonic contrast as a function of Z₂, following the periodic behavior of the stopping power for electron–solid interactions. A comparison of the iSE and eSE results shows similar relative contrast between the metal layers, and not complementary contrast as conventionally understood. These similarities in the contrast behavior can be attributed to similarities in the periodic and non-monotonic function defined by incident particle–solid interaction theory.     

Application of Feature Extraction through Convolution Neural Networks and SVM Classifier for Robust Grading of Apples

This paper proposes a novel grading method of apples,in an automated grading device that uses convolutional neural networks to extract the size,color,texture,an...     

分布动态载荷识别的抗噪处理

针对正交多项式频域法在用多种响应对矩形薄板进行载荷识别中抗噪性较差的问题,综合运用平均法、矩阵预处理和奇异值截断法等方法对之进行改善,并引入空间映射的思想,将该方法的应用范围拓展为复杂的模型.利用仿真算例,证实了该方法具有较好的抗噪性.     

Short-Term Relay Quality Prediction Algorithm Based on Long and Short-Term Memory

The fraction defective of semi-finished products is predicted to optimize the process of relay production lines, by which production quality and productivity ar...     

End-to-End Multiview Gesture Recognition for Autonomous Car Parking System

The use of hand gestures can be the most intuitive human-machine interaction medium.The early approaches for hand gesture recognition used device-based methods....     

基于MELTAC-N平台的核电厂安全级DCS环网研究与测试

针对工程实践中环网通讯相关问题的处理缺乏理论基础及国产化安全级DCS平台的开发缺乏成熟经验借鉴问题,对基于MELTAC-N平台核电厂安全级DCS环网的软硬件实现进行了研究。提出了安全级DCS环网双环网冗余设计、光切换开关设计等硬件设计方法,以及以RPR协议为基础,采用全数据收发策略的软件设计方法。在CPR1000安全级DCS平台上对安全级DCS环网的可靠性及实时性进行了评价,并进行了容错能力、响应时间及响应时间稳定性测试验证实验。结果表明,基于MELTAC-N平台安全级DCS环网软硬件设计具有较好的容错能力及响应时间稳定性。     

The laboratory simulation of abrasive wear

Abrasive wear has long been recognised as one of the most potentially serious tribological problems facing the operators of many types of plant and machinery; several industrial surveys have indicated that wear by abrasion can be responsible for more than 50% of unscheduled machine and plant stoppages. Locating the operating point of a tribological contact in an appropriate operational ‚map’︁ can provide a useful guide to the likely nature and origins of the surface degradation experienced in use, though care must be exercised in choosing the most suitable parameters for the axes of the plot. Laboratory testing of materials and simulations of machine contacts are carried out for a number of purposes; at one level for the very practical aims of ranking candidate materials or surface hardening treatments in order of their wear resistance, or in an attempt to predict wear lives under field conditions. More fundamentally, tests may be aimed at elucidating the essential physical mechanisms of surface damage and loss, with the longer term aim of building an analytical and predictive model of the wear process itself. In many cases, component surface damage is brought about by the ingress of hard, particulate matter into machine bearing or sealing clearances. These may be running dry although, more usually, a lubricant or service fluid is present at the interface. A number of standardised wear test geometries and procedures have been established for both two- and three-body wear situations, and these are briefly described. Although abrasive wear is often modelled as following an ‚Archard’︁ equation (i.e. a linear increase in material loss with both load and time, and an inverse dependence on specimen hardness) both industrial experience and laboratory tests of particularly lubricated contacts show that this is not always the case: increasing the hardness differential in an abrasively contaminated lubricated pair may not always reduce the rate of damage to the harder surface.     

ANGULAR DISTORTION ALLOWABLE VALUE AND ASSESS METHOD OF WELD ON COKE TOWER

A graph as the new engineering method for estimate the safety of bulging deformation of coke tower is proposed. Through stresses analysis of circumferential weld of coke tower and comparing the stresses produced by pressure with heat stress of steady state, residual stress, bending stress produced by both itself weight and wind loads, it showed that the stresses produced by pressure on the angle distortion are the main factor of equivalent stress of the combined stress. After comparing four kinds of stress controlling conditions, the relation to stress with depth of angular distortion, grade of curvature of angular distortion and half of region of angular distortion has been inferred. Graph of deformation allowable value of coke tower for different condition by angular distortion and half of region of angular distortion has been plotted. The five steps for its engineering use have been explained. The lighter the grade of curvature is, the larger of bulge allowance, may be, and the bigger of depth of angular distortion may pose too. For the coke tower with a popular structure of Dg 5 400 mm×28 mm, the result by graph is nearly more than the result of two formulas formed by other research, the error is less than 7.0%. But, the graph can be easily applied to different size of angular distortion.