Demand of the power industry of Russia for gas turbines: the current state and prospects

The use of gas-turbine plants (GTPs) in the power industry of Russia is analyzed. Attention is paid to microturbines and low-, medium-, high-, and superhigh-power GTPs. The efficiency of the gas-turbine plants of domestic and foreign manufacture is compared. The actual values of the installed capacity utilization factor and the corresponding efficiency values are calculated for most GTPs operating in the country. The long-term demand of the country’s electric power industry for GTPs for the period until 2040 is determined. The estimates have been obtained for three basic applications of the gas turbines, viz., for replacement of the GTPs that have exhausted their lifetime, replacement of outdated gas-turbine plants at gas-and-oilburning power plants, and construction of new thermal power plants to cover the anticipated growing demand for electric power. According to the findings of the research, the main item in the structure of the demand for GTPs will be their use to replace the decommissioned steam-turbine plants, predominantly those integrated into combined-cycle plants. The priority of the reconstruction of the thermal power plants in operation over the construction of new ones is determined by the large excess of accumulated installed capacities in the country and considerable savings on capital costs using production sites with completed infrastructure. It is established that medium- and high-power GTPs will be the most in-demand plants in the electric power industry. The demand for low-power GTPs will increase at high rates. The demand for microturbines is expected to be rather great. The demand for superhigh-power plants will become quantitatively significant after 2025 and grow rapidly afterwards. The necessity of accelerated development of competitive domestic GTPs with a wide range of capacities and mastering of their series manufacture as well as production of licensed gas turbines at a high production localization level on the territory of the country is shown. Considerable home demand for the power-generating GTPs and vast external markets will make the development of efficient domestic GTPs economically viable.     

Optimization of the operating conditions of gas-turbine power stations considering the effect of equipment deterioration

In recent years in most power systems all over the world, a trend towards the growing nonuniformity of energy consumption and generation schedules has been observed. The increase in the portion of renewable energy sources is one of the important challenges for many countries. The ill-predictable character of such energy sources necessitates a search for practical solutions. Presently, the most efficient method for compensating for nonuniform generation of the electric power by the renewable energy sources—predominantly by the wind and solar energy—is generation of power at conventional fossil-fuel-fired power stations. In Russia, this problem is caused by the increasing portion in the generating capacity structure of the nuclear power stations, which are most efficient when operating under basic conditions. Introduction of hydropower and pumped storage hydroelectric power plants and other energy-storage technologies does not cover the demand for load-following power capacities. Owing to a simple design, low construction costs, and a sufficiently high economic efficiency, gas turbine plants (GTPs) prove to be the most suitable for covering the nonuniform electric-demand schedules. However, when the gas turbines are operated under varying duty conditions, the lifetime of the primary thermostressed components is considerably reduced and, consequently, the repair costs increase. A method is proposed for determination of the total operating costs considering the deterioration of the gas turbine equipment under varying duty and start–stop conditions. A methodology for optimization of the loading modes for the gas turbine equipment is developed. The consideration of the lifetime component allows varying the optimal operating conditions and, in some cases, rejecting short-time stops of the gas turbine plants. The calculations performed in a wide range of varying fuel prices and capital investments per gas turbine equipment unit show that the economic effectiveness can be increased by 5–15% by varying the operating conditions and switching to the optimal operating modes. Consequently, irrespective of the fuel price, the application of the proposed method results in selection of the most beneficial operating conditions. Consideration of the lifetime expenditure included in the optimization criterion enables enhancement of the operating efficiency.     

未来"绿色煤电"的思考

中国的电力工业以燃煤发电为主，燃煤发电如何走出一条全面、协调、可持续发展的新型工业化道路是电力行业的重要课题。影响煤电可持续发展的主要因素是环境污染严重和煤电转化效率低。从满足未来电力可持续发展的角度看，现有的洁净煤发电技术在提高效率和减少污染物排放方面尚未达到未来“绿色煤电”的要求。通过分析，提出了未来“绿色煤电”的设想，它是以煤气化制氢和氢能发电为主、对CO2进行分离处理的煤基发电系统，可实现煤基发电的高效和近零排放。并描述了中国华能集团公司发展“绿色煤电”的初步规划。     

IGCC与未来煤电

我国以燃煤发电为主的格局和可持续发展的要求决定了在我国发展洁净煤发电具有重要意义。从我国电力工业的现状和面临的挑战出发，按可持续发展的观点和未来社会对燃煤发电的要求．分析了目前各种洁净煤发电技术的优点和存在的问题，得出IGCC具有可持续发展的诸多特性．是一种可实现高效低污染的先进燃煤发电技术。从美国、日本等国未来燃煤发电的发展计划可以看出：以IGCC为基础，将煤制氢、燃料电池发电、液体燃料生产、CO2分离和处理等过程集成的能源系统是未来燃煤发电技术的重要发展方向．它可实现燃煤发电的高效率和近零排放，符合可持续发展的要求。     

Cutting through complexity: Why did Australian electricity prices skyrocket,and are recent reforms a useful solution?

The main causes of the rapidly rising electricity prices in Australia in the decade to 2017 included excessive concentration of ownership arising from an imperfectly implemented privatisation process, combined with perverse regulatory incentives for wasteful grid investment, weak market misconduct laws and systemic complexity leading to poor consumer understanding of retail electricity pricing. Recent reforms are intended to address these market issues. The 2019 Prohibition of Electricity Market Misconduct (PEMM) laws are intended to ensure that reductions in electricity supply chain costs are passed on to consumers, that gentailers are not able to discriminate against smaller retailers in financial contracts markets, and that generators are not able to manipulate prices in wholesale spot markets. These laws are broadly formulated, and grant strong powers to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, including the power to apply to the Treasurer for a divestiture of assets order. State and Commonwealth default offers and retail price caps are intended to prevent excessive costs for customers on standing offers, and confusing and misleading offers labelled as discounts. Increasing solar and wind generation capacity is contributing to steadily reducing electricity costs and concentration of ownership. Despite continuing fossil fuel exploitation in Australia, renewable scale-up is likely further accelerate, for production of clean hydrogen to power low-emissions steel and aluminium production, manufacturing and resource processing. Until late 2021, renewable scale-up underpinned reducing wholesale prices, that were not fully reflected in retail prices. In early 2022, electricity wholesale price rises have been driven by surging coal prices, unplanned outages in aging coal plants, and transmission constraints limiting more widespread use of cheaper renewable power. In the event of future wholesale price declines achieved through increasing renewable penetration, the PEMM laws and default offers/price caps can play a useful role in ensuring cost reductions are passed on to consumers.     

A global planning methodology for uncertain environments:application to the Lebanese power system

This paper presents a global power system planning methodology which attempts to resolve multi-conflicting objectives in a highly uncertain environment. Uncertainty results from unpredictable changes in demand, economic and population growth, fuel prices, inflation and interest rates. The planning process needs to adequately account for the effect of alternative plans constrained by financial, technical and uncertainty related impediments. The proposed methodology addresses generation and transmission planning, where by using various available tools, issues related to total demand growth, generation increase, power plant locations, transmission system development, and system operation and control were integrated to make the planning of the whole power system workable and realistic     

Valuation of switchable tariff for wind energy

The current fixed tariff remuneration for wind energy is not compatible with the deregulation of the electric power industry. The time-varying and location-dependent value of renewable energy is not acknowledged. The newly announced switchable tariff for wind energy in the Spanish electricity market provides a promising solution to compensating renewable energy within the deregulated electric power industry. The new switchable tariff provides wind generators more flexibility in operating wind generation assets. Such flexibilities provide option value in coordinating the seasonality of wind energy, demand on electric power and electricity prices movement. This paper models and valuates the flexibility on switching tariff as real compound options for wind generators. Numerical examples valuate wind generation assets under fixed tariff, spot market price taking, and yearly and monthly switchable tariffs. The optimal switching strategies are identified. The impacts of the switchable tariff on sitting criteria and values of wind generation assets are investigated. An improvement on the yearly switchable tariff is suggested to further reduce the operation risk of wind generators and fully explore the efficiency provided by competitive electricity markets.     

Comprehensive assessment of the effective scope of modernization of thermal power plants to substantiate the rational structure of the generating capacities for the future until 2035

The article deals with issues of technical and economic substantiation of priorities and scopes of modernizing the existing thermal power plants (TPPs) in Russia to work out long-term forecasts of the development of the industry. The current situation in the TPP modernization trends is analyzed. The updated initial figures of the capital and operation costs are presented and the obtained estimates of the comparative efficiency of various investment decisions on modernization and equipment replacement at gas-and-oil-burning and coal-fired TPPs with regard to the main zones of the national Unified Power System (UPS) of Russia are cited. The results of optimization of the generating capacity structure underlie a study of alternative TPP modernization strategies that differ in the scope of switching to new technologies, capital intensity, and energy efficiency (decrease in the average heat rate). To provide an integral economic assessment of the above strategies, the authors modified the traditional approach based on determination of the overall discounted costs of power supply (least-cost planning) supplemented with a comparison by the weighted average wholesale price of the electricity. A method for prediction of the wholesale price is proposed reasoning from the direct and dual solutions of the optimization problem. The method can be adapted to various combinations of the mechanisms of payment for the electricity and the capacity on the basis of marginal and average costs. Energy and economic analysis showed that the opposite effects of reduction in the capital investment and fuel saving change in a nonlinear way as the scope of the switch to more advanced power generation technologies at the TPPs increases. As a consequence, a strategy for modernization of the existing power plants rational with respect to total costs of the power supply and wholesale electricity prices has been formulated. The strategy combines decisions on upgrade and replacement of the equipment at the existing power plants of various types. The basic parameters of the strategy for the future until 2035 are provided.     

Strategic prospects of the electric power industry of Russia

The prospects for the development of the electric power industry of Russia adopted at a regular stage of working out the Energy Strategy and the General Plan of Distribution of the Electric Power Facilities are discussed. The monitoring of the progress in the implementation of the Energy Strategies for the periods until 2020 and 2030 adopted in 2003 and 2009 has, in general, validated the correctness of the estimated volumes of the energy resource production under overestimation of the expected domestic demand owing to an excessively optimistic forecast of the real development of the economy. The priority lines of the national energy policy in electric power and allied industries proposed in the Energy Strategy for the period until 2035 are considered. The tools for implementation of most of the proposals and the effectiveness of their implementation have yet to be defined more concretely. The development of the energy sector and the electric power industry under the conservative and optimistic scenarios of the development of the country’s economy has been predicted using the SCANER modeling and information system, viz., the dynamics of the domestic consumption, export, and production of the primary energy and the electric power has been determined and the commissioning and structure of the required generating capacities and the consumption of the basic types of the energy resources by the electric power industry and the centralized heat supply systems has been optimized. Changes in the economic efficiency of the nuclear and thermal power plants under the expected improvements on their cost and performance characteristics and an increase in the domestic fuel prices are presented. The competitiveness of the wind and solar power production under Russian conditions has been evaluated considering the necessity of reservation and partial duplication of their capacities when operated in the power supply systems. When optimizing the electric power industry as a subsystem of the country’s energy sector, the required amounts of capital investments in the industry have been assessed. Based on the obtained data and the predicted prices of fuel in the main pricing zones of Russia, the ranges of changes in the prices of the electric power in agreement with the macroeconomic restrictions on their dynamics have been calculated.     

Planning for future uncertainties in electric power generation: ananalysis of transitional strategies for reduction of carbon and sulfuremissions

The authors discuss strategies for the US electric utility industry for reduction of both acid rain producing and global warming gases. The EPRI electric generation expansion analysis system (EGEAS) utility optimization/simulation modeling structure and the EPRI developed regional utilities were used. The focus is on the northeast and east central regions of the US. Strategies identified are fuel switching (predominantly between coal and natural gas), mandated emission limits, and a carbon tax. The overall conclusions are that conservation will always benefit carbon emissions but may not reduce acid rain emissions by the offsetting forces of improved performance of new plant as opposed to reduced overall consumption of final product. Results of the study are highly utility and regional demand specific     

Negative price spiral caused by renewables? Electricity price prediction on the German market for 2030

Logistic regression models were built and used to show the influence of energy sources, fuel, emission prices and time variables on low and negative price events. The models were tuned and validated with data from 2019 to 2021. The results show that volatile generation of wind and solar power raises the likelihood of low and negative electricity prices. Flexible power sources such as gas power plants, as well as high grid load and conventional generation, relate to higher, more stable market prices. Higher CO₂ allowance prices also reduce the likelihood of negative prices, as flexible gas power plants with lower CO₂ emissions compared to inflexible coal power plants are more flexible. The biggest influence of the Covid-19-pandemic was on the grid load in 2020 and 2021, which dropped heavily and lowered the electricity price on the market. The prediction analysis shows that in 2030 more low and negative price events will occur if the power supply does not become more flexible. Gas power plants, especially gas turbine peaker plants, help to reduce low prices in the future.     

市场经济下的燃煤火电厂的发电成本分析

在“厂网分开，竞价上网”的电力体制改革的形势下，火电厂成为电源侧独立的竞争主体，发电成本研究已经是电力企业生产经营中最为重要的课题之一。鉴此，用年限平均法分析火电厂的发电成本，并由此分析了影响发电成本的各种因素。这对当前电力企业有一定的意义。     

Impacts of the retirement of the Beaver Valley and Three Mile Island nuclear power plants on capacity and energy prices in Pennsylvania

Low electric energy prices in the PJM market are financially threatening some of Pennsylvania's nuclear power plants. An analysis of capacity and energy markets with and without two of Pennsylvania's most economically threatened nuclear power stations suggests that the retirement of these plants will not materially raise energy costs for Pennsylvania ratepayers. In the near term, the pace of investment in efficient generation capacity will be the more important factor affecting the state's electricity costs.     

Coordinating fuel inventory and electric power generation underuncertainty

The authors discuss the problem of hedging between the natural gas and electric power markets. Based on multiple forecasts for natural gas prices, natural gas demand, and electricity prices, a stochastic optimization model advises a decision maker on when to buy or sell natural gas and when to transform gas into electricity. For relatively small models, branch-and-bound solves the problem to optimality. Larger models are solved using Benders decomposition and Lagrangian relaxation. They apply their approach to the system of an electric utility and succeed in solving problems with 50000 binary variables in less than 4 min to within 1.16% of the optimal value     

Coordinating fuel inventory and electric power generation underuncertainty

We discuss the problem of hedging between the natural gas and electric power markets. Based on multiple forecasts for natural gas prices, natural gas demand, and electricity prices, a stochastic optimization model advises a decision maker on when to buy or sell natural gas and when to transform gas into electricity. For relatively small models, branch-and-bound solves the problem to optimality. Larger models are solved using Benders decomposition and Lagrangian relaxation. We apply our approach to the system of an electric utility and succeed in solving problems with 50000 binary variables in less than 4 minutes to within 1.16% of the optimal value     

How clean energy and efficiency can replace coal for a reliable,modern electricity grid

Aging coal-fired power plants are retiring all over the country, presenting the U.S. with an exciting opportunity to lead a global transition to a clean energy economy. The move away from coal begs the question: What will replace it? Energy efficiency, renewable energy and electric grid modernization should play an important part in replacing retiring coal capacity, and thereby mitigate the rush to build new natural gas plants.     

含风电及电动汽车虚拟电厂参与电力市场的优化调度策略

可再生能源发电及电动汽车充电的不确定性给电力系统运营带来新的挑战。针对含有风力发电和电动汽车充放电的虚拟电厂参与到电力市场中包含的不确定性问题,提出了一种混合储能虚拟电厂参与电力市场的优化调度策略。基于轮盘赌机制建立风力发电不确定性模型,将电动汽车的不确定性参数引入该模型,通过分析电力市场需求,制定基于不确定模型的随机优化调度方案。通过算例验证该方案的有效性和适用性,为混合储能虚拟电厂参与电力市场调度提供指导。     

电力市场中市场力的评估与发电竞标策略

提出发电公司竞标价格函数，并构建了在不健全市场下发电公司的竞标模型，在这种竞标模型和竞标价格函数的基础上对市场力加以评估。市场力的评估主要针对供不应求而且具有价格限制的市场。当市场经常出现供不应求的局面时，具有装机容量非常大或市场中主要的市场垄断者或所在地理位置可容易地造成输电阻塞等特性的发电公司，可利用其对市场需求的准确预测，来行使市场力，控制市场价格，从而获取高额的利润。数字仿真结果表明，在市场供不应求和市场供求均衡等2种情况下发电公司实现利润最大化的竞标策略完全不相同，从另一方面看也证实了市场力的存在和表现。     

CHP Plants in Russia: the Necessity for Technological Renovation

The role of combined heat and power (CHP) plants in the electric power industry of Russia is shown. The operational efficiency analysis of public service CHP plants and the fuel, power, and age structure of the existing CHP plants are carried out. Their main problems, such as underuse of generating equipment, excessive production in the condensing mode, high degree of equipment wear, and technological heterogeneity, are identified. The necessity of technological renovation of the CHP plants is shown. The energy efficiency of the combined production of electric and thermal energy by the existing CHP plants is compared to modern technologies for their separate gas and coal production. It is shown that the thermal capacity of the CHP plants in Russia exceeds the required capacity by almost two times. Estimates of the CHP plant thermal capacity necessary to cover the current heat loads are obtained for Russian regions. Main directions of the CHP plants' renewal based on the use of competitive domestic equipment and operation according to the heat load schedule are determined. Systemic impacts achieved by technological renewal are determined for gas-fired CHP plants with allowance for the climatic and load features of the Russian regions. It is shown that the technological renewal of gas-fired CHP plants will allow saving up to 16% of today’s fuel consumption, reducing the total CHP thermal capacity by 47.5% with the same volume and heat supply mode. The operation of a CHP plant according to the heat load schedule leads to a reduction in the electric capacity of the CHP plant by 20% with an increase in electricity generation by 11%. As a result, the consumption of the installed electric and thermal capacity of the CHP plant increases dramatically as does the fuel efficiency and the annual loading balance of external gas-fired condensing power plants. The needs for GTPs and CCGTs required for the technological renovation of the CHP plants is assessed. The necessity for developing competitive domestic medium and high power GTPs is considered.     

燃气电厂天然气短期订购优化决策

由于天然气日前市场早于电力日前市场关闭,大部分发电商需要为所属燃气电厂在未知实际发电量的情况下制定次日的燃料订购决策。这是一个市场机制下的新问题。文中提出一种用于日前市场天然气订购的分步模拟优化方法。首先通过蒙特卡罗模拟方法得到机组最优发电量和所有可行的天然气订购决策下的利润分布情况;由此构建机组利润的有效前沿,然后利用效用最大化理论得到最优的天然气订购决策。在决策过程中综合考虑了燃料市场和电力市场的双重不确定因素。最后用算例说明了该模拟优化方法的有效性。