Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of building performance using probabilistic climate projections: A UK case study

This study explores the uncertainties and sensitivities in the prediction of the thermal performance of buildings under climate change. This type of analysis is key to the assessment of the adaptability and resilience of buildings to changing climate conditions. The paper presents a comprehensive overview of the key methodological steps needed for a probabilistic prediction of building performance in the long term future (50 to 80 years). The approach propagates uncertainties in climate change predictions as well as the uncertainties related to interventions in building fabric and systems.A case study focussing on an air-conditioned university building at the campus of the authors is presented in order to demonstrate the methodology. This employs the most recent probabilistic climate change projections for the United Kingdom (UKCP09 dataset) and takes into account facility management uncertainties when exploring uncertainties in the prediction of heating energy, cooling energy, and carbon emissions.     

Performance evaluation of operational energy use in refurbishment,reuse, and conservation of heritage buildings for optimum sustainability

The operational phase of a building project has increasingly gained importance with their energy performance becoming valuable and determining their operational excellence. In most heritage building projects (HBPs), the operational energy use aspects areless considered, and a systematic way of analyzing their energy performance following project delivery is often lacking. The aim of this study is to evaluate the operational performance of refurbishment and reuse of UK listed church projects. The objective is to assess the operational energyuse with a view to optimizing their sustainable performance. The methodology includes eight selected case study buildings refurbished and converted for multipurpose use. The case study approach provided qualitative insights into how the study contributes to a more structured requirements for energy management in HBPs with specific attention to energy-efficient building operations. The findings show the need to focus on fundamental areas of operational management (i.e.by developing and implementing more focused policy on operational energy performance of heritage buildings) to minimize the energy required to operate them. The challenges of implementing changes in operational energy performance improvement of heritage buildings are addressed in the form of recommendations that could lead to real results. The study concludes that leveraging these areas requires commitment from all heritage building stakeholders because they all have substantial roles in harmonizing the requirement for the project's sustainability and not just the building operators. Meanwhile, baseline project planning, periodic updating, monitoring, and managing the energy use pattern are suggested as measures that could greatly facilitate better energy performance to optimizing their sustainable reuse compared with the traditional approach of trying to improve their thermal performance.     

Identification of key factors for uncertainty in the prediction of the thermal performance of an office building under climate change

There is growing concern about the potential impact of climate change on the thermal performance of buildings. Building simulation is well-suited to predict the behaviour of buildings in the future, and to quantify the risks for prime building functions like occupant productivity, occupant health, or energy use. However, on the time scales that are involved with climate change, different factors introduce uncertainties into the predictions: apart from uncertainties in the climate conditions forecast, factors like change of use, trends in electronic equipment and lighting, as well as building refurbishment / renovation and HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning) system upgrades need to be taken into account. This article presents the application of two-dimensional Monte Carlo analysis to an EnergyPlus model of an office building to identify the key factors for uncertainty in the prediction of overheating and energy use for the time horizons of 2020, 2050 and 2080. The office has mixed-mode ventilation and indirect evaporative cooling, and is studied using the UKCIP02 climate change scenarios. The results show that regarding the uncertainty in predicted heating energy, the dominant input factors are infiltration, lighting gain and equipment gain. For cooling energy and overheating the dominant factors for 2020 and 2050 are lighting gain and equipment gain, but with climate prediction becoming the one dominant factor for 2080. These factors will be the subject of further research by means of expert panel sessions, which will be used to gain a higher resolution of critical building simulation input.     

Influence of climate change on the energy efficiency of light-weight steel residential buildings

This paper addresses the influence of the climate change scenarios predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) for Southern Europe and the Mediterranean region on the energy efficiency of light-weight steel residential buildings. A performance-based approach is adopted to carry out this assessment using advanced dynamic simulation of the operational energy performance. Based on a typical Portuguese cold-formed steel residential building, a representative numerical model is calibrated against normative requirements for dynamic simulation of thermal behaviour and sophisticated computational fluid dynamics models. Considering climate change scenarios predicted by the IPCC, a parametric study is carried out to assess the influence of climate change on the energy efficiency of light-weight steel residential buildings representative of a warm temperate summer dry climatic region.     

Evaluation of energy efficient design strategies for different climatic zones: Comparison of thermal performance of buildings in temperate-humid and hot-dry climate

Since the Kyoto protocol signed in December 1997 the majority of governments around the world have committed themselves to reducing the emission of the greenhouse gases. Thus, efficient use of energy and sustainability has become a key issue for the most energy policies. Sustainability and energy saving terms take place in building construction industry too since buildings are one of the most significant energy consumers. It is known that heating energy demand of a building has a great rate in building total energy consumption. In addition to that, the most of the heating energy has been lost from building envelope. TS 825, Heating Energy Conservation Standard for Buildings in Turkey, aims the reducing of heat loss in buildings through the envelope. But within buildings, one of the fastest growing sources of new energy demand is cooling and especially in hot-humid and hot-dry climatic parts of Turkey cooling season is much longer than the heating season. Moreover in hot-dry climate heat storage capacity of the envelope becomes more important issue than heat insulation for energy efficiency of the building. Since the Turkish standard is considering only heating energy conservation by using degree-day concept, Istanbul and Mardin are considered in the same zone, however those are in temperate-humid and hot-dry climatic zones, respectively. In this study energy efficient design strategies for these climatic zones have been explained and thermal performance of two buildings, which are constructed according to the TS 825 in Mardin and Istanbul cities were evaluated to show the importance of thermal mass in hot-dry climates.     

Estimating the impacts of climate change and urbanization on building performance

Over the past 15 years, much scientific work has been published on the potential human impacts on climates. For their Third Assessment Report in 2001, the United Nations International Programme on Climate Change developed a set of economic development scenarios, which were then run with the four major general circulation models (GCM) to estimate the anthropogenesis-forced climate change. These GCMs produce worldwide grids of predicted monthly temperature, cloud, and precipitation deviations from the period 1961–1990. As this period is the same used for several major typical meteorological year data sets, these typical data sets can be used as a starting point for modifying weather files to represent predicted climate change. Over the past 50 years, studies of urban heat islands (UHI) or urbanization have provided detailed measurements of the diurnal and seasonal patterns and differences between urban and rural climatic conditions. While heat islands have been shown to be a function of both population and microclimatic and site conditions, they can be generalized into a predictable diurnal and seasonal pattern. Although the scientific literature is full of studies looking at the impact of climate change driven by human activity, there is very little research on the impact of climate change or urban heat islands on building operation and performance across the world. This article presents the methodology used to create weather files which represent climate change scenarios in 2100 and heat island impacts today. For this study, typical and extreme meteorological weather data were created for 25 locations (20 climate regions) to represent a range of predicted climate change and heat island scenarios for building simulation. Then prototypical small office buildings were created to represent typical, good, and low-energy practices around the world. The simulation results for these prototype buildings provide a snapshot view of the potential impacts of the set of climate scenarios on building performance. This includes location-specific building response, such as fuel swapping as heating and cooling ratios change, impacts on environmental emissions, impacts on equipment use and longevity comfort issues, and how low-energy building design incorporating renewables can significantly mitigate any potential climate variation. In this article, examples of how heat island and climate change scenarios affect diurnal patterns are presented as well as the annual energy performance impacts for three of the 25 locations. In cold climates, the net change to annual energy use due to climate change will be positive – reducing energy use on the order of 10% or more. For tropical climates, buildings will see an increase in overall energy use due to climate change, with some months increasing by more than 20% from current conditions. Temperate, mid-latitude climates will see the largest change but it will be a swapping from heating to cooling, including a significant reduction of 25% or more in heating energy and up to 15% increase in cooling energy. Buildings which are built to current standards such as ASHRAE/IESNA Standard 90.1-2004 will still see significant increases in energy demand over the twenty-first century. Low-energy buildings designed to minimize energy use will be the least affected, with impacts in the range of 5–10%. Unless the way buildings are designed, built, and operated changes significantly over the next decades, buildings will see substantial operating cost increases and possible disruptions in an already strained energy supply system.     

Life cycle cost implications of energy efficiency measures in new residential buildings

The importance of the built environment from an environmental impact and energy use perspective is well established. High thermal efficiency of the constructed building envelope is a key strategy in the design and construction of buildings which limit use of active space conditioning systems. Australia's current housing stock is thermally poor and national energy performance standards are relatively weak when benchmarked against international best practice. A lack of data has impeded the policy debate and a significant gap in analysis remains a lack of empirical research into the life-cycle cost implications of increased building thermal efficiency, particularly for residential buildings. This paper applies an integrated thermal modeling, life cycle costing approach to an extensive sample of dominant house designs to investigate life cycle costs in a cool temperate climate, Melbourne Victoria. Empirical analysis provides new insights into lifetime costs and environmental savings for volume housing design options and identifies sensitive factors. Results suggest that the most cost-effective building design is always more energy efficient than the current energy code requirements, for the full time-horizon considered. Findings have significant policy implications, particularly in view of present debates which frequently present higher energy efficiency standards as prohibitive from a costs perspective.     

Energy and exergy analysis of the Greek hotel sector: An application

Energy consumption in buildings vary significantly, depending on factors as the use of the building, the construction type, maintenance, existing heating, cooling and lighting systems and other types of services. Hotel buildings have high energy consumption rate, as a result of their unique operational characteristics. Energy consumption in hotels is among the highest in the non-residential building sector in absolute values. Available specific information on the energy characteristics, thermal performance, energy losses, electric loads, and comfort conditions play significant role for the sustainable development of hotel's systems. These data can also be used to identify whether there is space for improvement in new or existing hotels by comparing them against predicted or actual building energy performance. The aim of the present paper is to analyze the energy and exergy utilization in four hotels in Rethimno, Crete (Southern Greece) and in Kassandra, Halkidiki (Northern Greece).     

The role of adaptive thermal comfort in the prediction of the thermal performance of a modern mixed-mode office building in the UK under climate change

Climate change is becoming a serious issue for the construction industry, since the time scales at which climate change takes place can be expected to show a true impact on the thermal performance of buildings and HVAC systems. In predicting this future building performance by means of building simulation, the underlying assumptions regarding thermal comfort conditions and the related heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC) control set points become important. This article studies the thermal performance of a reference office building with mixed-mode ventilation in the UK, using static and adaptive thermal approaches, for a series of time horizons (2020, 2050 and 2080). Results demonstrate the importance of the implementation of adaptive thermal comfort models, and underpin the case for its use in climate change impact studies. Adaptive thermal comfort can also be used by building designers to make buildings more resilient towards change.     

A study of the effectiveness of passive climate control in naturally ventilated residential buildings in Singapore

Singapore has the hot and humid climate throughout the year. Many passive climate control methods are adopted in the naturally ventilated residential buildings to help achieve thermal comfort and reduce the energy consumption of air-conditioning. A field measurement and computational energy simulations were conducted to examine the effectiveness of commonly used passive climate control methods for these buildings. The effect of building orientation, façade construction, special roof system and window shading device on indoor thermal environment and cooling load was studied. The surface temperature of external wall and indoor thermal environment was measured to analyze the façade thermal performance. The cooling load was simulated to evaluate the effectiveness of various passive climate methods. Using the special roof system as thermal buffer is the most efficient method to reduce the room cooling load.     

Application of adaptive comfort behaviors in Chilean social housing standards under the influence of climate change

Currently, energy performance indicators for buildings are associated with the primary energy source consumption, CO₂ emissions or net energy distribution, which together set the building’s energy efficiency. The evaluation is frequently based on setpoint temperatures and hours of operation. However, these fixed parameters are not suitable for social housing simulation as their performance tends to be in free running, excluding extremely cold or warm conditions. Therefore, a more successful assessment for the efficiency of these buildings is the users’ capability to live within adaptive comfort ranges without air conditioning systems. The aim of this research is to analyze new Chilean standards for sustainable social housing in the context of climate change using the adaptive comfort approach addressed in EN 15251:2007. Using EnergyPlus simulation software, 16 parametric series are analyzed for current conditions and validated against on-site measurements. Meanwhile, a prediction for the climate in 2050 has also been taken into account. The case study is the most widespread low cost dwelling model. The study demonstrates that the period of time within thermal comfort conditions varies substantially if analysis is done using the adaptive comfort standard or the Sustainable Construction Code (CCS) for Chilean housing. Considering climate change, the percentage of time fluctuates from ?19.00% to 24.30%. Concluding that the adaptive comfort model has a greater capacity to positively assess indoor temperatures for social housing in Central-Southern Chile. This research also establishes that it is possible to provide homes where standards are improved within comfort conditions without using artificial means, 99.67% of the time currently and 88.89% in the future.     

Assessment of monitored energy use and thermal comfort conditions in mosques in hot-humid climates

In harsh climatic regions, buildings require air-conditioning in order to provide an acceptable level of thermal comfort. In many situations buildings are over cooled or the HVAC system is kept running for a much longer time than needed. In some other situations thermal comfort is not achieved due to improper operation practices coupled with poor maintenance and even lack it, and consequently inefficient air-conditioning systems. Mosques represent one type of building that is characterized by their unique intermittent operating schedule determined by prayer times, which vary continuously according to the local solar time. This paper presents the results of a study designed to monitor energy use and thermal comfort conditions of a number of mosques in a hot-humid climate so that both energy efficiency and the quality of thermal comfort conditions especially during occupancy periods in such intermittently operated buildings can be assessed accurately.     

贵州民用建筑围护结构节能技术适应性分析

围护结构的热工性能是影响民用建筑能耗的最重要因素之一,如何正确地应用围护结构节能技术尤为重要。地方标准将贵州划分为四个气候区域,即温和地区、夏热冬暖地区、夏热冬冷地区、夏凉冬冷地区[1]。为了使围护结构节能技术的应用更加有效,根据贵州省四个气候分区特点,对民用建筑围护结构典型节能技术进行研究分析,结合相关建筑节能标准的要求和贵州省经济、环境特点,提出适合贵州不同气候区域民用建筑的墙体、外窗、屋面、遮阳节能技术。     

Evaluating the potential impact of global warming on the UAE residential buildings – A contribution to reduce the CO2 emissions

There is significant evidence that the world is warming. The International Panel of Climate Change stated that there would be a steady increase in the ambient temperature during the end of the 21st century. This increase will impact the built environment, particularly the requirements of energy used for air-conditioning buildings. This paper discusses issues related to the potential impact of global warming on air-conditioning energy use in the hot climate of the United Arab Emirates. Al-Ain city was chosen for this study. Simulation studies and energy analysis were employed to investigate the energy consumption of buildings and the most effective measures to cope with this impact under different climate scenarios. The paper focuses on residential buildings and concludes that global warming is likely to increase the energy used for cooling buildings by 23.5% if Al-Ain city warms by 5.9 °C. The net CO₂ emissions could increase at around 5.4% over the next few decades. The simulation results show that the energy design measures such as thermal insulation and thermal mass are important to cope with global warming, while window area and glazing system are beneficial and sensitive to climate change, whereas the shading devices are moderate as a building CO₂ emissions saver and insensitive to global warming.     

中国被动房外围护系统研究——以寒冷、严寒气候区被动房项目为例

德国的被动房是目前世界公认的具有超低能耗、超低碳排放量、超高室内舒适度等特点的建筑技术体系。德国的气候特征与中国华北地区的气候特征具有相似性,因此,研究并建造被动房对于我国建筑节能工作的发展具有重大的意义。外围护系统作为被动房设计的重点要素,对建筑的节能效率有重大的影响。以寒冷、严寒气候区的被动房项目为例,对被动房外围护系统进行分析与阐述,并以秦皇岛"在水一方"被动式住宅示范项目为例,进行能耗模拟与对比分析。提出适合我国寒冷、严寒气候区气候特点的被动式超低能耗建筑外围护系统的设计策略。     

An hourly modelling framework for the assessment of energy sources exploitation and energy converters selection and sizing in buildings

The promotion of the exploitation of renewable sources in the built environment has led to the spread of multi-energy systems in buildings. These systems use more than one energy source in various energy converters to overcome the limitations that may be characteristic of each source. However, the design of the optimization of such systems is a complex task because the number of design variables is high and the boundary conditions (climate, operation strategies, etc.) are highly variable, so the system simulation has to be performed in the time domain. In this work an original hourly model to optimize multi-energy systems is presented and applied on a case study. It is an evaluation method to assess, in an integrated fashion, the performance of a building system as a whole and the viability of the exploitation of various energy sources. This tool is intended to take into account the variation of the conversion efficiency as a function of the design power, part load, boundary and climatic conditions. The relations that can model the energy converters of the case study (standard boiler, condensing boiler, various types of chillers and others) from the energy performance and from the financial points of view are also presented. This model represents a valuable alternative to currently available tools for hybrid systems simulation because of the optimization approach and of the detail in the thermal energy converters performance. Ultimately, the theoretical and applied knowledge of this contribution aims also at promoting a more conscious use of renewable and non-renewable energy in the built environment.     

Predicting the performance of an office under climate change: A study of metrics, sensitivity and zonal resolution

Climate change is expected to have significant impact on the future thermal performance of buildings. Building simulation and sensitivity analysis can be employed to predict these impacts, guiding interventions to adapt buildings to future conditions. This article explores the use of simulation to study the impact of climate change on a theoretical office building in the UK, employing a probabilistic approach. The work studies (1) appropriate performance metrics and underlying modelling assumptions, (2) sensitivity of computational results to identify key design parameters and (3) the impact of zonal resolution. The conclusions highlight the importance of assumptions in the field of electricity conversion factors, proper management of internal heat gains, and the need to use an appropriately detailed zonal resolution.     

Development and visualization of time-based building energy performance metrics

ABSTRACT

In the face of climate change, and as building codes and standards evolve to promote increased building energy efficiency and reduced carbon footprints, it is also important to ensure that buildings, especially housing, can withstand prolonged power outages during extended periods of both extreme cold and hot weather to provide habitable shelter passively. This paper examines an approach for visualizing the impact of robust passive measures in multi-unit residential buildings by examining the ‘weakest links in the chain’ – the suites most susceptible to underperforming – in three climatic zones: Toronto and Vancouver, Canada; and Adana, Turkey. Two time-based and thermal comfort-related metrics are explored: thermal autonomy, a measure of what fraction of the time a building can deliver comfort without supplemental active systems; and passive survivability (also termed thermal resilience), a measure of the length of time a building remains habitable following the onset of a prolonged power outage during a period of extended extreme weather. A visualization of the results of parametric building energy simulations helps guide the selection of passive architectural parameters at the early stages of design to promote enhanced environmental performance and resilience.     

Using passive cooling strategies to improve thermal performance and reduce energy consumption of residential buildings in U.A.E. buildings

Passive design responds to local climate and site conditions in order to maximise the comfort and health of building users while minimising energy use. The key to designing a passive building is to take best advantage of the local climate. Passive cooling refers to any technologies or design features adopted to reduce the temperature of buildings without the need for power consumption. Consequently, the aim of this study is to test the usefulness of applying selected passive cooling strategies to improve thermal performance and to reduce energy consumption of residential buildings in hot arid climate settings, namely Dubai, United Arab Emirates. One case building was selected and eight passive cooling strategies were applied. Energy simulation software – namely IES – was used to assess the performance of the building. Solar shading performance was also assessed using Sun Cast Analysis, as a part of the IES software. Energy reduction was achieved due to both the harnessing of natural ventilation and the minimising of heat gain in line with applying good shading devices alongside the use of double glazing. Additionally, green roofing proved its potential by acting as an effective roof insulation. The study revealed several significant findings including that the total annual energy consumption of a residential building in Dubai may be reduced by up to 23.6% when a building uses passive cooling strategies.     

Development of a dynamic operational rating system in energy performance certificates for existing buildings: Geostatistical approach and data-mining technique

The operational rating system in building energy performance certificates(EPCs) has been used for systematically monitoring and diagnosing the energy performance in the operation and maintenance phases of existing buildings. However, there are several limitations of the conventional operational rating system,which can be subdivided into three aspects:(i) building category;(i i) region category; and(iii) space unit size. To overcome these challenges, this study conducted the problem analysis of the conventional operational rating system for existing buildings by using the statistical and geostatistical approaches. Based on the problem analysis, this study developed the dynamic operational rating(DOR) system for existing buildings by using the data-mining technique and the probability approach. The developed DOR system can be used as a tool for building energy performance diagnostics.To validate the applicability of the developed DOR system, educational facilities were selected as the representative type of existing buildings in South Korea. As a result, it was determined that the developed DOR system can solve the irrationality of the conventional operational rating system(i.e., the negative correlation between the space unit size and the CO2 emission density). Namely, the operational ratings of small buildings were adjusted upward while those of large buildings were adjusted downward. The developed DOR system can allow policymakers to establish the reasonable operational rating system for existing buildings, which can motivate the public to actively participate in energy-saving campaigns.