广东省“十二五”天然气供需平衡分析

广东省是我国开发天然气市场的重点区域和全国天然气价格改革试点地区,海气、进口LNG、西气和国内LNG现货等多气源供应格局已初步形成。本文分析了广东省天然气产业发展现状,研究了"十二五"期间全省天然气供应布局和供需平衡,提出了广东省下一步天然气产业发展的思路。     

世界及中国油气发展形势初步分析

本文分析了世界石油及天然气资源、石油生产成本和市场变化趋势,特别是美国页岩油成本的不断降低,美国页岩气和LNG产业的快速发展,对国际石油价格以及对全球LNG供需形势的影响;概括介绍了国外地下储备库建设情况以及对能源安全内涵认识的不断变化。从中国石油天然气需求和对外依存度的快速增长出发,分析了中国石油及天然气产业发展面临的形势,指出加大国内石油天然气勘探开发力度,努力稳定石油产量、加快天然气产业发展极其重要并且是具备资源基础的;分析了中国天然气市场的特点,指出天然气价格与替代燃料相比要有竞争力,有竞争力的价格是国际LNG供应商扩大中国市场的条件。     

影响中国天然气供应安全的因素及对策探讨

根据国家能源总体规划,天然气在一次能源消费中所占的比重将稳步上升,目前天然气供不应求的矛盾会逐渐加大,中国天然气供应安全就成为一个突出问题显现出来。本文综合分析了影响天然气供应安全的因素。同时,对确保我国未来天然气供应安全提出了相应的对策建议,主要包括:积极开发利用国内资源、统筹天然气管网建设、进一步完善天然气市场体制、尽快出台《天然气法》、促进天然气进口多元化、力争天然气输送安全、对进口LNG项目合理布局、建立主要消费国合作对话机制、构建多元进口运输渠道、推进天然气地下储气库及战略储备建设。     

中俄天然气谈判面临新挑战？

中俄第15轮天然气谈判即将拉开序幕，但因天然气价格问题双方迟迟无法达成合作协议，目前中国已经开始启动了天然气价格机制改革，并且荷兰皇家壳牌已经进入中国开始页岩气开发，这些是否会威胁到中俄天然气谈判？     

我国东南沿海液化天然气发展问题

近年来随着油价高启,液化天然气价格不断攀升,对中国液化天然气发展带来巨大的挑战,应客观冷静地规划国内液化天然气项目,按照市场承受能力有序实施进口液化天然气接收站建设,优先考虑广东、福建、浙江、上海和珠海经济发达省市。首先建成东南沿海天然气配送主干线,并在2015年左右形成中国东南沿海天然气供应网络,满足东南沿海省市经济发展对能源的需求,确保我国东南沿海地区能源安全稳定供应。     

我国天然气价格面临挑战2010年后缺口200亿m^3

中国是产煤大国，而天然气资源却有限。目前国内主要以小气田为主，开发难度较大，成本也较高。另一方面，由于中国的天然气资源主要集中在北方，但主要的消费市场却在中部，在长距离输送过程中，天然气的安全问题便显得尤为突出。目前世界天然气消费占一次能源23％，而中国却只有2．8％。预计2010年中国天然气需求将达1100亿m^3，而国内生产能提供的只有900亿m^3，这就意味着还有200亿m^3的缺口，加上由于价格机制的不合理以及国际天然气价不断上涨，供应保障和价格均将面临新问题。     

国内天然气利用新趋势及其推动因素研究

概述国际天然气消费概况,对国内天然气消费现状也进行了阐述,并对远期国内天然气消费进行了预测。重点分析推动天然气利用增长和优化的5个主要因素,即国家天然气利用政策的导向,天然气价格改革逐步到位,节能减排和低碳经济的推动,天然气储运设施日益完善,以及城镇化进程加快,并在此基础上展望了未来国内天然气利用新趋势,即居民用气稳步增长、工业用气大幅度增加、车用燃气业务发展迅速、燃气发电和分布式能源加速发展,这些利用新趋势对天然气业务发展具有重要意义。     

浙江省天然气市场分析及建议

浙江省正在逐步引入天然气这一优质能源。本文介绍了浙江省天然气市场概况,分析了浙江省天然气市场发展中存在的资源供应、价格承受力、价格机制、市场垄断等问题,并提出了若干建议。     

浅析天然气价格改革

本文分析了天然气价格改革的现状,较系统全面地分析了天然气价格改革对天然气产业链造成的影响,包括天然气供应增加,中间配送无太大变化,终端用户差异明显,尤其对天然气化工用户负面影响突出。同时,提出了在今后改革过程中应该注意的几个主要问题,如更多地关注公平、改革进程,注重循序渐进、合理分配改革成本、适当的政府监管。     

浙江省天然气利用现状与前景展望

自2004年引进西气东输天然气以来,浙江省天然气市场快速发展。本文介绍了浙江省天然气利用的现状,从供应和价格两个方面分析了浙江省天然气利用的前景及将面对的诸如交叉补贴、价格承受力、气电上网等问题,最后提出若干建议。     

俄罗斯与乌克兰和白俄罗斯天然气争端和启示

俄罗斯是世界上最重要的天然气生产和出口国之一,但缺少直通欧洲消费国的输气管道,天然气出口须经过乌克兰和白俄罗斯。近年来,俄罗斯与乌克兰和白俄罗斯在天然气价格、过境费、债务和贷款等问题上冲突不断,影响了俄罗斯对主要天然气消费市场的供应,成为俄罗斯天然气工业发展的不利因素。本文从地缘政治角度简要评述了俄罗斯与乌克兰和白俄罗斯在天然气出口和过境等问题上的冲突,并结合我国能源现状提出几点启示和建议。     

Rhetoric versus reality: Russian threats to European energy supply

European gas demand will rise from presently 540 billion cubic meters (bcm) to around 800 bcm in 2030. As more than 50 percent of overall European imports originate from Russia, fears have been expressed that the Kremlin could use energy resources as a foreign policy tool. A thorough assessment of domestic consumption, production and investment volumes however reveals that Russian supply will have difficulties in matching growing domestic and European demand. Hence, as the author argues, the threat to European gas supply does not lie in geopolitics, but rather in a lack of investment in the Russian upstream sector. Higher domestic Russian gas prices, enhanced energy efficiency and increases in non-Gazprom production would however make it possible for Russia to meet domestic demand and its export commitments for natural gas.     

Gas-on-gas competition in Shanghai

In common with other major economic centres in China, Shanghai's energy consumption has been increasing rapidly to support the high growth rate of its economy. To achieve rational, efficient and clean use of energy, together with improved environmental quality within the city, the Shanghai municipal government has decided to expand the supply and utilization of natural gas. Shanghai plans to increase the share of natural gas in its primary energy mix to 7 per cent by 2010, up from 3 per cent in 2005. This increase in natural gas demand has to be matched with a corresponding increase in supply. To date, the Shanghai region has relied on offshore extracted natural gas but this supply is limited due to the size of the reserves. Since 2005, the West–East pipeline has provided an alternative for Shanghai but demands from other regions could reduce the potential for expanding supplies from that source. Since domestic production will not be sufficient to meet demand in the near future, Shanghai is building a liquefied natural gas (LNG) regasification terminal at the Yangshan deep-water port that would allow an additional supply of more than 3 billion cubic meters per year of natural gas. Malaysia has already committed to supply LNG to the Shanghai terminal at a price that is significantly higher than the wholesale “city-gate” price for natural gas transported via pipeline, but still lower than the gas price to end-use consumers. The presence of both an LNG terminal and a transmission pipeline that connects Shanghai to domestic gas-producing regions will create gas-on-gas competition. This study assesses the benefits of introducing such competition to one of China's most advanced cities under various scenarios for demand growth. In this paper, the impact of imported LNG on market concentration in Shanghai's gas market will be analysed using the Herfindahl–Hirschmann index (HHI) and the residual supply index (RSI). Our results show that Shanghai remains a supply-constrained gas market that will continue to rely upon gas supplies from the western provinces and imported LNG. After 2017, the gas market in Shanghai can be regarded as unconcentrated since its HHI fall below 1800 under a very high growth scenario. In terms of RSI, the gas market can be considered competitive at low, moderate and high growth consumption between 2012 and 2015.     

页岩气产业远景展望及风险分析

页岩气革命给全球能源市场带来重要影响,并吸引了全球范围内对页岩气产业的广泛关注。页岩气促使美国从天然气进口国向出口国转变;促使加拿大逐渐脱离美国市场,寻求开拓新的油气市场;促使欧洲地区重新审视油气供需现状;促使亚太地区积极参与页岩气开发活动。页岩气产业的发展面临着价格、制度、效益、信誉和地缘政治等方面的风险。我国页岩气产业的发展,需要辩证地分析和借鉴美国的发展经验;根据气价变化调整生产和并购决策,规避价格风险;需要完善政策法规体系,降低产业发展效益风险和信誉风险;要立足国内资源,放眼全球视角。     

促进我国天然气发电产业健康快速发展研究

我国天然气发电发展低于世界平均水平,气电占发电总量的比重只有4.65%左右,主要分布在广东、浙江、江苏等经济发达区域。我国气电的发展有赖于政策的定位和扶持。由于天然气价格、电力价格、体制机制等情况复杂,我国气电产业发展面临着不同程度的问题与阻力,主要表现在政策、气源、经济性、技术以及区域发展不平衡等五个方面。在大量的调研和分析基础上,选择江苏、浙江等重点区域深入了解气电产业发展面临的核心问题,揭示行业发展面临的问题本质,提出短期、中长期的政策建议。     

The economic impact of price controls on China's natural gas supply chain

Despite significant progress made by China in liberalizing its natural gas market, certain key areas such as market access and pricing mechanisms remain controlled by the government. To assess how such distortions impact the market, we have developed a Mixed Complementarity Problem model of China's natural gas industry, with a novel representation of price caps associated with supply obligations. The model is used to assess how government pricing policies and restricted third party access to midstream infrastructure impacted the supply logistics of China's profit maximizing natural gas firms in the year 2015. We find that lifting the price caps for regulated natural gas demand sectors could yield a 4.7% (1.4 billion USD) reduction in total system cost and reduce the national average of marginal supply costs by 14%. Improving third party access to the pipeline and regasification infrastructure would result in an additive total cost saving of 7.6% (2.2 billion USD) and a 16% reduction in average prices, due to replacing domestic and imported LNG with pipeline imports. The LNG industry would be negatively affected by the reforms investigated in this study, as market players would gain more flexibility in their logistics and would utilize lower cost supply pathways.     

Abundant low-cost natural gas and deep GHG emissions reductions for the United States

This paper analyzes the implications of the natural gas revolution on the US’ ability to achieve deep GHG emissions reductions of 80% below 2005 levels by 2050. It uses a hybrid energy-economy model to test how prevailing low US natural gas prices influence the magnitude of the required carbon price needed to achieve this target. While the paper finds in general that lower gas prices resulting from plentiful gas necessitate a higher carbon price to achieve this target, informing firms and consumers in advance about the magnitude of the future carbon price can lower the necessary level.     

An assessment of optimal gas pricing in Russia: A CGE approach

Domestic gas prices in Russia are administratively regulated, and they are substantially lower than export netback prices. The administrative price regulation operates as an implicit subsidy on domestic gas consumption. The Russian government aims to liberalise domestic wholesale gas prices in the long term. While the “export netback parity” is defined as a political objective, it seems not to be a necessary target anymore. The export netback parity is not economically rational for Russia because the average export netback price of gas is higher than the marginal cost due to Gazprom's market power in export gas markets. An optimal domestic gas price is still not well-defined. This paper addresses this question by employing a comparative static, single-country, multi-sector Computable Generation Equilibrium model (CGE). The administrative regulation of domestic gas prices is explicitly modelled. The main findings are as follows. An increase in the domestic gas price provides economic efficiency gains: the more elastic the export and domestic demand for gas, the larger the welfare gains. The optimal domestic gas price should be approximately 55% of the export netback price. Increasing the domestic gas price provides additional government revenues, which can be used to reduce distortionary taxes. On sectoral effects, the structure of the Russian economy shifts from energy toward non-energy intensive sectors in response to an increase in the domestic gas price. There is an increase in the export supply of gas. Furthermore, an increase in the domestic gas price leads to a reduction in total CO₂ emissions.     

我国天然气价格改革浅析

我国现行的以成本加成法为基础的天然气定价机制使天然气价格偏低,从而影响了天然气的进口,造成终端消费市场的过度发展,不利于天然气企业进行成本管理,天然气定价机制改革已迫在眉睫。国外天然气价格成功改革的经验为我国提供了借鉴,但俄罗斯模式和日韩模式都不适合于中国。美国、加拿大、英国等国家天然气定价机制都经历了3个阶段,即传统固定价格阶段、天然气价值定价阶段、竞争性市场形成阶段。我国正处于天然气价格改革的第一阶段末期,应参考美国、加拿大等国的经验改革现有的天然气定价机制,建立与竞争性能源价格挂钩的定价方式,按照热值当量法计算天然气与其他竞争能源的比价关系;最终目标应是建立竞争性的市场,天然气价格由市场竞争形成。建议天然气下游利用加权定价法计算天然气终端价格,中游利用"两部制"法制定管输费,上游利用净回值法制定出厂价。同时,应制定天然气产业链一体化协调发展的相关政策,建立并完善天然气监管机构,及时处理天然气上中下游利益分配问题,制定高效的天然气价格听证会制度。     

俄罗斯与天然气出口过境国的争端和启示

俄罗斯是世界上最重要的天然气生产和出口国之一,其天然气探明储量为44.8×1012m3,约占全球总量的23.9%。然而由于缺少直通消费国的输气管道,绝大部分天然气出口必须过境第三国。近年来,俄罗斯与乌克兰、白俄罗斯、土耳其、波兰等主要出口过境国在过境费、天然气价格、债务和贷款等问题上冲突不断,影响了俄罗斯对主要天然气消费市场的供应,成为制约俄罗斯天然气工业发展的不利因素。为了消除天然气出口的"瓶颈",俄罗斯开始加强与消费国的联系,提出绕过第三方的输气管道方案;而过境国也使出浑身解数,希望利用自己在俄罗斯天然气出口中的作用获得更多利益。我国已成为名副其实的能源进口大国,因此俄罗斯与其天然气出口过境国和欧洲间的博弈,对我国的能源安全有重要的借鉴意义。从长期来看,天然气很可能在世界一次能源消费从化石燃料向非化石燃料的过渡中发挥重要作用,我国应从国家和石油公司两个层面重视天然气生产,优化能源结构;应加快实现我国油气进口来源地和运输途径的多元化;能源进口单位应提高公关意识,特别是危机公关,处理好与供应国和过境国之间的关系;同时应增加天然气储备,建立国家层面的战略储备和企业层面的调峰储备。