Applicability and limitations in the use of national input-output tables for regional studies

Some Tentative Conclusions It appears that although national input-output tables cannot be used for purposes of regional studies without considerable adjustments, acceptable results can be achieved by the methods tried on the Washington State table.In order to obtain acceptable results it seems important (1) to exclude the tertiary sectors through aggregation, and (2) to use field surveys in order to obtain input-output coefficients for (a) primary industries and (b) industries in which the regional economy is specialized. Price adjustments and adjustments for domestic imports do not seem to add anything to the quality of results. Neither do successive iterations after the first one.Financial help for this research was provided by a Cornell Faculty Research Grant to the senior author and is acknowledged. The authors are deeply indebted to the late Professor Charles M. Tiebout, of the University of Washington, who provided the Washington State Input-Output Table used for the case study and who also assisted with helpful comments. Mrs. Katherine Drew and Mrs. Tessa Osborne gave programming assistance, and Barry Lawson acted as research assistant during part of the preparation.     

Preferences, technology, trade and real income changes in the European Union An intercountry decomposition analysis for 1975–1985

This paper refines, develops and applies input-output decomposition analysis. First, by putting it in an unique intercountry perspective, second, by concentrating on explaining income growth, and, third, by systematically separating the effects of trade pattern changes from the effects of technology and preference changes. The resulting matrix decomposition formula distinguishes six components, and is applied to a set of EU-intercountry input-output tables in constant prices, with 25 sectors and 6 EU-countries, for 1975 and 1985. Macro economic demand growth is found to be most important component at the aggregate country level. The other five components relate to the impacts of coefficient changes. Their sizes are smaller, but at the sector level they are quite large and different between individual sectors and countries. It is concluded that the analysis uncovers a much broader potential impact for national and EU industrial policy measures than the usual less refined decomposition analyses. Received: January 1997 /Accepted: September 1997     

Measuring industry importance: an Australian application

The focus of this paper is an empirical examination of the importance of an industry in terms of its contribution to regional employment. It uses a closed input-output model. Four alternative measures of importance are presented and explored in the framework of a 58-industry input-output model of the Australian State of Tasmania. The four measures are compared to each other, to direct employment and to a multiplier-based rule-of-thumb. Our preferred measure is one which takes into account both direct effects and the strength of backward linkages. The rule-of-thumb is found to be highly correlated to this measure.We are grateful to an anonymous referee for useful comments. A longer version of this paper including a detailed discussion of the computation procedures is available from the authors on request.     

Regionalizing national projections with a multiregional input-output model linked to a demographic model

Multiregional input-output has long been recognized as a tool that provides an appropriate framework for considering regional growth and development questions, but implementation problems have impeded utilization of this methodology. This paper discusses how several of these problems have been partially overcome with a multiregional economic-demographic model of the Southwest. The model is used to regionalize projections from a national dynamic input-output model.     

Using input-output analysis to estimate tax exporting and tax pyramiding in Hawaii

An input-output model was used to estimate the degree of tax pyramiding and exporting in the State of Hawaii. Tax exporting is an important political objective in export-based economies. The concern of tax pyramiding arises from Hawaii's multi-stage, multi-rate gross receipts tax. This paper briefly describes how the State Input-Output model was modified and used to analyze these two issues. Given specific assumptions on tax shifting by industry and by type of tax, reasonable estimates can be made of the amount of taxes paid by out-of-state consumers (tax exporting) and pattern of price increases across industries and commodities caused by taxes levied on businesses at all stages of production (tax pyramiding). Empirical results are presented for the simplest case analyzed, that of full forward shifting of all taxes.     

The design and implementation of a regional economic-demographic simulation model

Managing urban growth patterns is essential for an economic and demographic development process which maximizes public and private investments in the urban environment. This paper presents the results of a modelling design effort to link a hybrid regional input-output model to demographic, labor force and energy models for use in planning in the San Francisco Bay Region. Extensive use of system feedback is a major component of this research effort. Summary results of the model outputs are presented in this paper.     

The choice of an input-output table embedded in regional econometric input-output models

In this paper, we investigate the role of input-output data sources in regional econometric input-output models. While there has been a great deal of experimentation focused on the accuracy of alternative methods for estimating regional inputoutput coefficients, little attention has been directed to the role of accuracy when the input-output system is nested within a broader accounting framework. The issues of accuracy were considered in two contexts, forecasting and impact analysis focusing on a model developed for the Chicago region. We experimented with three input-output data sources: observed regional data, national input-output, and randomly generated inputoutput coefficients. The effects of different sources of input-output data on regional econometric input-output models revealed that there are significant differences in results obtained in both forecast and impact analyses. The adjustment processes inherent in the econometric input-output system did not mask the differences imbedded in input-output tables derived from different data sources. Since applications of these types of models involve both impact and forecasting exercises, there should be strong motivation for basing the syste on the most accurate set of input-output accounts.     

论“长株潭城市群”作为区域发展增长极的意义

本文结合增长极理论,对长株潭城市群作为区域发展增长极的自身优势进行总结,并通过现状及统计数据的分析,将其与武汉、郑州对于所在区域增长极效应对比,得出长株潭城市群作为区域增长极对湖南省以及中部地区区域发展的积极影响及现实意义。     

江苏省钢结构行业现状及发展策略研究

江苏钢结构行业近年来发展迅速,但与兄弟省市相比仍存在不足,自身发展也面临一定的困难。文章通过因子分析法提取关键数据,利用企业生产数据比较大、中、小型企业发展的差别因素。比较苏南、苏北、苏中钢结构行业的发展差异。结果表明,钢结构企业的规模对企业发展有重要影响,钢结构行业发展应该注重布局,苏中地区会成为新的增长极。     

Some empirical evidence of the strengths of linkages between groups of related industries in urban-regional complexes

Some Tentative Conclusions Recepitulating the main tentative findings, it appears that multivariate analysis may be a useful tool for analyzing linkages existing in regional economies. The sample of input-output tables so far examined was far too small for any regularities to emerge. Nonetheless, the pervasiveness of links based on spatial proximity rather than technical affinity in the first subsystem falls in line with theoretical considerations and deserves careful attention. Other limitations inherent in the use of a fixed coefficients production function underlying an input-output table and the dependence of the results upon accidents of an industrial classification developed for other purposes, especially in the treatment of services, have already been mentioned.The results so far derived seem also to indicate that the rather frequent use of small, highly aggregated input-output tables for regional studies limits their usefulness. As far as multivariate analysis is concerned, the highest possible degree of detail would be required.The author is professor of City and Regional Planning at Cornell University. The financial help for carrying out the research reported in this paper was provided by a Cornell Faculty Research Grant and is gratefully acknowledged. Most of the computations reported in the paper were carried out by John Holmstrom, then a graduate student at Cornell University, while the original computer program was developed by James Burgess, a student at Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia. Thanks are due to Professors David E. Boyce and Isadore Blumen for many helpful comments. Mrs. Margaret Dingley provided editorial assistance.     

REGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS OF ENERGY RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT

ABSTRACT The development of energy resources has significant effects on a regional economic system, two alternative approaches can be followed once u regional input-output analysis framework has been chosen to provide the modelling background for the evaluation of energy-related impacts. The first deals with the evaluation of changes in economic activity and employment due to energy development, through the utilisation of the basic input-output framework and the consideration of detailed labour and material requirements. The second copes with the integration of energy with the other regional economic activities and provides the possibility to consider structural changes, in the regional economic system.
Both approaches are applied to a region of Greece with a promising energy potential. The first approach should he considered as an initial and very useful step in the impact analysis process. Concerning the second approach, it was clear that the dynamic dosed model, with respect to households, is the best formulation for regional energy and economic policy purposes.     

城市会展与经济增长关系实证研究

为了更好地揭示城市会展与经济增长间的关系,弥补投入产出分析和可计算一般均衡模型的缺陷,以广州市为例,利用协整分析和Granger 因果关系检验进行实证研究,建立了城市会展与三次产业结构之间的向量误差纠正模型。检验结果表明:城市会展与城市经济之间存在互动关系;城市会展经济系统具有涌现性特征;会展需求、成交金额与工业产出、服务业产出之间协整关系中短期有效,但从长期来看,城市建设管理者与会展经济参与主体需谨慎对待互动关系所带来的不确定风险。     

A comparative input-output analysis of the construction sector in three developing economies of South Asia

Construction is commonly regarded as one of the major industries of an economy that is receiving a significant attention in the developing countries. This paper uses the Asian Development Bank (ADB) input-output database at constant prices for the selected Asian countries, i.e. Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal to analyze and compare the performance of the construction sector in these economies. The novelty of this research is the application of multiple linkages methods. First, the standard measures of the backward and forward linkages are used to examine the induced output created by the demand push and supply pull effects of the construction industry. Second, the concept of Hypothetical Extraction Method (HEM) is applied to extract a sector hypothetically from an economic system and then to examine the influence of that extraction on the rest of the economy. The results indicate that the construction sector has a strong backward and weak forward linkages for all the three economies. Furthermore, results reveal that the ‘pull effect’ is very significant in these countries while the ‘push effect is very insignificant. With respect to the identification of the key sectors, the findings of the traditional methods are very different from those of the hypothetical extraction methods.     

A source of bias in regional input-output models estimated from national coefficients

Conclusions Most regional input-output models are constructed for purposes of providing a basis for making policy decisions relative to regional economic growth and development. Evidence suggests they are used increasingly for this purpose. A major implication of this paper is that information generated from regional input-output models developed by modifying a national model may lead to unjustified optimism by those who make such decisions. At a minimum researchers and decision-makers should be aware that this may be a problem in models estimated using the net export-import technique. The significant of this problem may be expected to vary among regions. That is, its significance will vary inversely with, among other things, the level of economic integration within the region. If examination of secondary data vis-a-visa priori knowledge of the regional economy leads the analyst to believe that this may be a significant problem, steps could be taken to help alleviate it. Even studies with extremely limited resources could include a survey of major sectors to obtain estimates of their actual exports and imports. Su [10] suggests that costs may be reduced by a survey conducted on theproportion of required inputs for each sector imported from other regions in the total inputs of that sector. Such an approach is amendable to a mail or telephone survey that could yield, at minimum costs, sufficient data on exports and imports. Resultant percentages could then be used in conjunction with the technical coefficients matrix in a manner similar to the traditional net export-import technique. The Delphi technique of multi-round surveys of industry experts also holds promise for obtaining such proportions.     

Interregional analysis of energy flows

ABSTRACT The analysis of energy problems is limited by the lack of adequate statistics and instruments for energy analysis. The Commission of the European Communities, therefore, asked the Federal Statistical Office of the Federal Republic of Germany and the Ifo-Institute for Economic Research in Munich to establish input-output tables of energy flows. Relevant studies were simultaneously conducted in six other EEC countries (France, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, United Kingdom and Denmark). This paper analyses the regional structure of energy flows in Europe. Empirical results are presented for the physical energy content (terajoule) and the energy costs (mill. DM) of commodities in France, Italy, Denmark, and the Federal Republic of Germany. In addition, it shows how mixed input-output systems in physical and value units can be analysed with the general input-output model. Mathematically, input-output analysis can be regarded as a special statement of a linear programming model; here, the customary quantity and price models of input-output analysis are transferred into a linear optimization model (general input-output model) with a substantial gain of information for users. The objective is to analyse regional differences in energy production and energy use within the European Communities.     

Growth determinants in the regions of the EEC—An empirical study

Reported here are results of an empirical analysis of regional growth in the European Economic Community for the period 1950–75. Data limitations ruled out the specification of a formal regional growth model. Accordingly the analysis is limited to the testing of various hypotheses of growth determinants using multiple regression analysis. The analysis was applied to GDP per capita data for 74 regions. A clear and consistent pattern of convergence was found. Significant growth determinants included economic structure, urbanization and centrality. The sunbelt hypothesis was confounded. Regional policy subsidies were not significant. The most important individual determinant was the growth of the rest of the state in which the region was located although there was a progressive weakening of this effect over time. The results allow for interesting comparisons with similar studies of State growth in the U.S.Any views expressed by the author of this paper are not necessarily those of the Department of Industry. The paper was written whilst the author was Visiting Research Fellow, Urban Research Unit, Australian National University. Most calculations were performed at the Academic Computing Facilities of the University of California at Los Angeles, USA.     

Emerging challenges in regional input-output analysis

The changing interests and focus of research in the field of regional input-output analysis is examined. After reviewing some of the recent trends and suggesting the tenor of the prevailing philosophy in the field, attention is focused on three, interdependent emerging trends. These are characterized as (1) the conceptualization of input-output within the traditions of econometric analysis; (2) the integration of input-output with other regional and interregional models and (3) attempts to link input-output analysis with regional growth and development theory.     

Decomposing growth in a multiregional I-O framework

Since the pioneering work of Wassilly Leontief, a remarkable amount of theoretical and empirical work has continuously supported Input-Output modelling. In particular, the peculiar structure of dynamic input-output (I-O) model have originated, in numerous fields ranging from mathematical economics to system theory, an abundance of contributes. This paper deals with the computational problem of managing regional growth within a dynamic multiregional input-output model. Starting from the basic matrices of technological capital and trade coefficients, the regional components associated to a given group of regions are appropriately recognised and separated. A numerical example, based on the Italian case, is also discussed.An earlier of this paper was presented at the Thirty-fourth Annual Meeting of Western Regional Science Association in San Diego and has benefitted from comments during the conference. The authors are grateful for suggestions rendered by the anonymous referees. They also wish to thank Prof. G. Hewings and P.R. Israilevich for their useful comments and suggestions.     

Employment Loss in a Steel City — did we get it Wrong?

Abstract

In an earlier paper in this journal, Mangan and Guest (1983) used standard input-output analysis to predict job losses in Wollongong following the restructuring of the steel industry. Events have shown that these estimates were biased upwards. In this paper, given the benefit of hindsight, we re-examine our previous study and highlight one particular deficiency in input-output analysis which may have helped produce the inflated estimates. Our conclusions have significance for input-output modelling in general.     

THE USE OF INPUT-OUTPUT FABLES IN SPECIEYING INTERINDUSTRY AND INTERREGIONAL LABOR MARKET LINKAGES

ABSTRACT This paper presents the results of employing input-output relationships in the construction of a regional labor market, vector autoregression. forecasting model. Information available in published input-output tables is used to specify interindustry and interregional labor market linkages. It is shown that when the interrelationships indicated by the input-output tables are taken into account, the forecast accuracy of the model improves.