电力零售市场研究:（三）电力零售市场的合同

在电力零售市场上，合同是用户和电力供应商之间权利义务的具体体现。文中首先分析了电力零售转运的一般过程，阐明了电费的构成，对垄断市场下和电力零售市场下用户电费单的变化进行了说明；然后研究了电力零售合同的3种类型及其主要内容，为电力零售市场上的合同签订和电费谈判奠定了基础。     

Consumption effects of electricity decarbonization: Evidence from California and the Pacific Northwest

This paper estimates the price-induced impacts of decarbonization policy on CO₂ emissions in California and the Pacific Northwest. We document that retail demands for electricity and natural gas by customer class are highly price-inelastic. Based on the heat rates of natural-gas-fired generation, we find that a 10% electricity rate increase due to electricity decarbonization may not have the consumption effects of further reducing the region’s CO₂ emissions.     

中国售电市场发展动态及关键问题

中国售电侧改革快速推进,随着《关于进一步深化电力体制改革的若干意见》及配套文件下发,发电企业、工业园区、社会资本等纷纷成立售电公司,竞争态势初步显现。系统分析中国售电市场发展动态,结合国际经验从竞争格局、交易方式、业务开展、竞争手段等方面研判售电市场发展趋势;针对售电市场发展中面临的售电主体构建、用户选择权实施、保底供电服务、售电市场监管等问题提出相关措施建议,为完善售电侧改革相关政策、推进售电市场建设提供参考。     

Why microgrids are becoming an important part of the energy infrastructure

The term “microgrid” is somewhat non-specific and always changing. This is not necessarily a bad thing. In one form or another, microgrids have been in the energy service toolbox for 30 years. However, with the evolution of software systems, cost reductions in energy technology, and increasing customer drive for sustainability, reliability, resilience, and cost predictability, microgrids have become more capable today and have experienced a surge in deployment. Make no mistake, the growth is customer driven. So, what does the future hold for microgrids? If customers continue to seek cost predictability, sustainability, and reliability/resilience in their energy services, then long-term growth in the microgrid industry should be obvious, even in the face of resistance from utilities and policymakers. Where will microgrids be in 2035? 2050? Will utilities embrace microgrids? Will policymakers become facilitators of microgrids? Will municipalities and rural cooperatives use microgrids to hedge costs and improve sustainability and resilience for their citizens/members? This article will discuss the trends and drivers stemming from the early days of microgrids that still exist today which likely lead to an institutionalization and growth of microgrids in the future.     

Default service pricing – The flaw and the fix: Current pricing practices allow utilities to maintain market dominance in deregulated markets

Utility default service has been priced incorrectly for two decades. Incumbent utilities serving as default service providers for both electricity and gas allocate few to no “costs to serve” to default service rates. The indirect costs not allocated include billing, customer care, enrollments, metering, and other overhead and add up to billions of dollars annually. These costs are paid in distribution rates. The resulting rate for utility-provided default service is a below-market price, allowing the utilities to maintain dominant market positions in the retail markets for residential and small commercial customers. This pricing practice distorts the relevant retail electric and gas markets and harms customers and the markets. NARUC cost allocation guidelines advocate that the cost of utility resources used in the provision of default service should be allocated to that service. This paper presents a Default Service Equalization Adjustment Mechanism (“D-SEAM”) that when deployed properly, will provide the default service utilities with a tool to allocate an appropriate amount of costs to default service rates and then adjust that allocation on a monthly basis to ensure the distribution utility is made whole financially as customers migrate off of default service. Without an appropriate allocation of cost to default service, incumbent utilities will maintain a dominant market position in the retail markets for residential and small commercial customers as a result of the significant subsidy provided by the distribution rates. Utilities should adopt, and/or the regulators should compel the adoption of a complete and appropriate allocation of costs to default service. It is only with this allocation that customers will be able to reasonably compare market offerings.     

基于Bertrand模型的2类售电企业定价策略

新电改方案提出将向社会资本开放售电业务,而中国售电企业缺少运营经验,为此本文借鉴国外成功电力市场的运行经验,在放开售电侧的背景下,研究售电企业的定价策略。将6类能够成为售电主体的售电企业进一步分为拥有发电资产的售电企业和不拥有发电资产的售电企业,利用Bertrand寡头博弈模型分析这2类售电企业的定价策略,其中Bertrand模型中的替代系数根据售电企业所提供的增值业务类型利用层次分析法确定。最后,通过具体算例对模型的可行性进行了验证,该方法可为售电企业的定价策略提供理论依据。     

电力零售市场研究:（二）电力零售市场的组成

在电力零售市场上存在着分工各不相同的成员。分析了电力生产商、电力经销商、电力经纪人、用户和配电公司在电力零售市场上的职能。以北京地区为例，研究了电力供应商和电力经纪人从事电力零售服务的盈利水平，讨论了电力零售市场与电力批发市场的异同。开放配电网和电力零售竞争给配电商和售电商带来了机遇和挑战，对整个配电系统将会产生深远影响。     

碳中和驱动下电力市场零售平台交易模式研究

“双碳”目标的提出,对电力行业的发展产生了深刻而巨大的影响,要求电力行业加快“清洁替代”、“电能替代”两个替代的步伐。电力改革不断深化的背景下,交易、价格、结算、风险管理等复杂难题制约了零售市场的发展。基于此文章设计了碳中和驱动下的电力市场零售平台的系统架构,并提出了基于电力零售平台的交易模式。文章首先依据广东零售市场交易情况,阐述电力零售平台建设的必要性;而后依据碳中和对售电平台的要求,设计电力零售平台的功能架构和系统架构;最后基于电力零售平台提出交易模式,引入碳信号实现电力市场低碳运转,旨在提升市场运行效率,满足市场主体的多样化需求。     

Cost Allocation Considerations and Methods for Electric Rate Analysis and Design for Rural Distribution Systems

The continuing increase in the cost of wholesale and retail electric rates has caused both consumer and regulatory attention to focus on the reasonableness of the rates being charged by utilities. Rate increases generally precipitate concern over discriminatory pricing questions. Because the resolution of rate discrimination issues in part involves a cost allocation study, it is important for the rural electric system to be aware of the general considerations involved in the development of a cost of service study. A complete allocation of electric service costs is not an exact procedure, and any cost allocation effort must also involve an analysis of the assumptions that are a part of the cost of service study, particularly if comprehensive customer demand data are not available. The general considerations involved in developing a cost of service study are outlined to define a technique to evaluate the impact of the assumptions that are a part of the allocation of demand related costs.     

电力零售市场信息披露机制研究与探讨

在电力零售市场放开的初期,各方面机制尚不健全,因信息不透明产生了诸多问题。在零售市场建立公开、有效的信息披露机制,成为保障零售市场有序发展的必要条件。综合电力与零售市场的特性,围绕信息披露的意义与目的,研究了电力零售市场信息披露体系的基本框架,探讨了市场主体基本信息、交易运营信息、监管评价信息,以及信用评价信息4类零售市场核心披露信息应具备的基本内容与相应的公开方式。在此基础上,结合中国现状,提出了建立集中式信息披露平台的建议,以期促进零售市场的健康发展。     

电力零售核心业务架构与购售电决策

随着电力工业改革的不断发展和智能电网的兴起,现代电力系统正逐步演变为更加复杂的信息物理融合系统。未来电力系统中将同时融合可再生能源、分布式发电设备、储能设备、智能表计、需求响应等新技术与新机制。在电力零售市场环境下,这些新技术与新机制给零售公司带来了严峻挑战,需要发展新的决策机制与方法。随着中国新一轮电力市场化改革的逐步深化,多个区域的电力零售市场也正在逐步建立和运营。为了给国内构建完整的竞争性电力零售市场提供有益的参考,并帮助相关研究学者和技术人员更好地了解电力零售市场的研究现状,文中首先介绍了一些主要国家的电力零售市场情况,然后以澳大利亚和芬兰为例,详细说明了电力零售公司的组织结构和购售电业务流程。接着,比较系统地综述了近年来国内外电力零售决策方面的研究进展,包括零售负荷预测、零售公司购电策略、零售定价策略、零售风险管理等。最后,讨论了电力零售研究领域的一些关键问题和未来可能的发展方向。     

碳排放约束下虚拟电厂鲁棒优化竞标模型

虚拟电厂中的可再生能源发电出力和电力市场的电价具有不确定性特征,在虚拟电厂的竞标中如何处理这些不确定性因素的影响值得深入研究。应用鲁棒优化的方法处理风电出力和电力市场电价的不确定性,同时考虑碳排放约束对虚拟电厂竞标的影响,建立虚拟电厂鲁棒优化竞标模型。算例分析结果验证了所提模型的经济性和鲁棒性,显示了鲁棒优化法处理含有不确定性参数的优化问题的有效性,且碳排放约束会使虚拟电厂竞标策略发生变化。     

消纳保障机制下增量配售电公司的投资组合决策

在可再生能源电力消纳保障机制中明确将增量配售电公司纳入消纳责任考核主体。这样,研究消纳责任下增量配售电公司的最优投资决策对其经营发展、消纳保障机制的设计与完善均具有重要意义。在此背景下,文章提出了一种基于投资组合理论和展望理论的增量配售电公司最优组合投资决策方法。首先,对增量配售电公司应对消纳责任的投资决策行为进行成本效益分析,得出各投资行为的收益率和风险。接着,基于投资组合理论构建各投资行为的组合,提出增量配售电公司的组合投资模型。然后,为进一步反映增量配售电公司的真实投资行为,基于展望理论对所提模型进行改进,提出改进组合投资决策模型。最后,以某增量配售电公司为例进行验证分析,算例结果表明所提模型可使其获得最大投资决策效用。     

考虑可调负荷集群响应不确定性的联合调度模型

售电侧放开是新电改的一项重点任务,分析需求响应策略的经济性和安全性会为售电市场开放后的需求响应业务实施提供支持。需求侧管理将大量的小时响应负荷建模成多个负荷集群,通过电价信号调整集群的用电量,实现用电高峰时段减小电力缺口的目的。但负荷集群对电价响应的不确定性会造成潜在风险损失,在经济调度模型中考虑这种响应不确定性以达到降低风险值得研究。首先基于蒙特卡洛法得到负荷集群的响应偏差率,然后使用风险损失(VaR)度量负荷集群响应不确定性的风险损失,最后在满足各种约束条件的基础上,对引入风险损失的优化模型进行求解。算例结果表明该联合调度模型保证调度经济性的同时,减少需求侧因负荷响应不确定带来的风险损失。     

华东地区电动汽车发展趋势及用电需求预测

对2020-2040年华东地区电动汽车用电需求进行预测。首先对华东地区电动汽车保有量进行预估,然后利用平均用电量法和油耗计算法分别预测电动汽车的用电耗能情况。最后分情景对电动汽车引起的用电负荷进行预测。结果显示,华东地区电动汽车保有量2020-2030年快速增长,年均增长率为79.11%,2040年达到3720万辆。电动汽车引起的用电需求2020年、2030年和2040年分别为7 TWh、132 TWh和198 TWh,年均增长率从24.60%降至4.11%,2020-2040年整体年均增长率超过18%。2040年电动汽车年均用电负荷增长率为2.27%,最低负荷为41859 MW,最高负荷为93021 MW。     

基于测量不确定度理论的电能计量装置整体误差性能评估与控制研究

电能计量装置的准确性关系贸易结算的公平公正、电网运行的经济安全。现有相关技术标准规定了电能表、互感器的误差控制要求,但对由电能表、互感器及其回路组成的电能计量装置的综合误差性能指标,尚缺乏准确量化的定义。文中以测量不确定度理论为基础,论述了不同典型条件下电能计量装置的各标准不确定度分量、合成标准不确定度以及整体扩展不确定度的计算评定方法与允许综合误差限值的确定方法,为电能计量装置综合误差性能评估,以及电能表、互感器装出前的优化组合选配提供技术依据与方法。     

考虑电价不确定性的主动配电网网损成本鲁棒优化模型

提高配电网的运行效率和可靠性是配电网运营商优化系统运行的主要目标,在开放电力市场中,市场电价波动可能会使得上述优化目标下不能够最小化配电网的网损成本。基于此,构建考虑电价不确定性的配电网运营商网损成本鲁棒优化模型。分析不同优化目标下电价波动以及需求响应和储能调度策略对配电网运行网损成本的影响,并给出在不同情境下的最优运行策略。IEEE 33节点配电网的仿真结果验证了所提模型的有效性。     

新电改背景下我国电网公司售电服务竞争力分析

售电侧改革作为新一轮电力体制改革的重点之一,将导致我国电力市场终端销售模式发生重大改变。在此背景下,针对售电服务竞争力提升问题,首先探讨了新电改背景下我国未来电力市场的整体格局和售电公司的经营模式;其次分析了影响售电服务竞争力的因素及其作用路径,并构建了结构方程模型;最后通过模型拟合,实证研究了影响我国售电服务竞争力的关键因素及其作用机理。研究结果表明,在开放售电环境下,电网售电公司开展个性化综合化增值服务是提升其售电服务竞争力的关键。     

电动公交车换电站—电池充电站优化规划

充电设施的规划与建设是解决电动汽车发展瓶颈的重要问题。电动汽车在公共交通领域发展迅速,并广泛采用换电模式。文中充分考虑了电动公交汽车换电电量需求和充换电行为,提出了一种换电站—电池充电站建设模式,并给出了相应的优化规划方法。该方法首先使用近邻传播聚类算法对换电需求点进行空间聚类,以确定电池充电站的站址和规模,并利用化石燃料与电能的热值关系,将当前柴油公交车日消耗能量折算成电能以确定换电电量需求。然后,利用排队论方法对电池充电站内的工作情形进行建模,提出以拒绝服务率为主要约束,以综合建设成本最小为目标的优化模型。最后,以某城市实际统计数据为例给出了该市公交汽车换电站、电池充电站以及其充电设备、换电设备、电池的规划方案,为电动公交车充、换电站的实际规划提供参考。     

Economic evaluation of independent power producers viewed from total generating costs of electric power systems

In Japan, electric power utilities purchase electricity from independent power producers (IPPs) through competitive bidding; the IPP evaluation is based on the avoided costs of corresponding generators of utilities. In this evaluation, however, nonpricing factors such as power flow constraints in the electric power system cannot be considered. In this paper, we propose a new approach to evaluate economic impacts of IPPs, the IPP electricity being priced on the basis of total generating costs of the electric power utilities. Such a price to purchase the electricity of IPPs is referred to as the “break‐even cost.” The main results are summarized as follows: 1) Break‐even cost depends on not only the power flow constraints in the system, but also various IPP factors such as generating pattern, location, and capacity, 2) Break‐even cost for the base‐type IPP is higher than the avoided cost of corresponding utility generators, because IPPs located on demand sides can reduce the transmission power loss in the electric power system, 3) Break‐even cost is affected by available capacity of utility generators, especially for the peak‐type IPP generating only during peak demand periods. © 2000 Scripta Technica, Electr Eng Jpn, 133(2): 20–30, 2000