Equipment health diagnosis and prognosis using hidden semi-Markov models

In this paper, the development of hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs) for equipment health diagnosis and prognosis is presented. An HSMM is constructed by adding a temporal component into the well-defined hidden Markov model (HMM) structures. The HSMM methodology offers two significant advantages over the HMM methodology in equipment health diagnosis and prognosis: (1) it overcomes the modeling limitation of HMM due to the Markov property and therefore improves the power in diagnosis, and (2) it can be directly used for prognosis. The application of the HSMMs to equipment health diagnosis and prognosis is demonstrated with the fault classification application of UH-60A Blackhawk main transmission planetary carriers and prognosis of a hydraulic pump health monitoring application. The effectiveness of the HSMMs is compared with that of the HMMs. The results of the application testing have shown that the HSMMs are capable of identifying the faults under both test cell and on-aircraft conditions while the performance of the HMMs is not comparable with that of the HSMMs. Furthermore, the HSMM-based methodology can be used to estimate the remaining useful life of equipment.     

A prognosis method using age-dependent hidden semi-Markov model for equipment health prediction

Health monitoring and prognostics of equipment is a basic requirement for condition-based maintenance (CBM) in many application domains. This paper presents an age-dependent hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM) based prognosis method to predict equipment health. By using hazard function (h.f.), CBM is based on a failure rate which is a function of both the equipment age and the equipment conditions. The state values of the equipment condition considered in CBM, however, are limited to those stochastically increasing over time and those having non-decreasing effect on the hazard rate. The previous HSMM based prognosis algorithm assumed that the transition probabilities are only state-dependent, which means that the probability of making transition to a less healthy state does not increase with the age. In the proposed method, in order to characterize the deterioration of equipment, three types of aging factors that discount the probabilities of staying at current state while increasing the probabilities of transitions to less healthy states are integrated into the HSMM. With an iteration algorithm, the original transition matrix obtained from the HSMM can be renewed with aging factors. To predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of the equipment, hazard rate is introduced to combine with the health-state transition matrix. With the classification information obtained from the HSMM, which provides the current health state of the equipment, the new RUL computation algorithm could be applied for the equipment prognostics. The performances of the HSMMs with aging factors are compared by using historical data colleted from hydraulic pumps through a case study.     

基于隐半马尔可夫模型设备退化状态识别方法研究

机械设备从正常到故障往往经历一系列退化状态,正确识别与估计设备当前所处的退化状态,对预防设备进一步退化和故障的发生具有重要意义。隐半马尔可夫模型(Hidden Semi-MarkovModels,HSMM)是隐马尔可夫模型(hidden Markov models,HMM)的一种扩展模型,克服了因马尔可夫链的假设造成HMM建模所具有的局限性,比HMM具有更好的建模能力和分析能力。由状态识别和HMM本质上的相通性,将HSMM引入到机械设备的状态识别中,提出了一种基于HSMM状态识别方法,描述了该模型的拓扑结构和主要参数以及相应的训练和识别算法。最后通过滚动轴承试验系统验证了方法的有效性。     

Prediction of coal feeding during sintering in a rotary kiln based on statistical learning in the phase space

In alumina rotary kiln production, adjusting the coal feeding rate is the main way to maintain sintering temperature stability during the sintering process, which plays a critical role in improving production quality and reducing energy consumption. In this paper, a novel integrated method (termed PSR-PCA-HMM) is proposed to predict the coal feeding state for optimal control by integrating principal component analysis (PCA) and the hidden Markov model (HMM) based on phase space reconstruction (PSR). First, the thermal signals in rotary kilns are shown to have obvious chaotic characteristics. Second, PSR is utilized to extract the features of the sintering process in a rotary kiln, and PCA is proposed to efficiently reduce the redundancy of the high-dimensional feature space reconstructed by the PSR. Then, considering the nonlinear dynamic characteristic of the sintering process, three HMM models are built to capture the nonlinear dynamic relationship between thermal variables and the corresponding coal feeding state. Finally, the posterior probabilities with respect to the three HMM models are estimated by using the forward algorithm, and the final prediction of coal feeding is determined by the maximized likelihood estimation. Based on field data, the application results indicate that the PSR-PCA-HMM method can significantly improve prediction performance and help realize stable closed-loop control for the sintering temperature.     

基于无限隐Markov模型的旋转机械故障诊断方法研究

针对传统隐Markov模型(HMM)在机械故障诊断中存在的不足,即HMM过学习或溢出问题以及隐状态数需要事先假定,提出了基于无限隐马尔可夫模型(i HMM)的机械故障诊断方法。在提出的方法中,以谱峭度为特征提取,i HMM为识别器,并以最大似然估计来确定设备运转中出现的故障类型。同时,将提出的方法与传统的HMM故障识别方法进行了对比分析。实验结果表明,提出的方法是有效的,得到了非常满意的识别效果。提出的方法能够有效避免了HMM在建模初期遗留下的不足,可以自适应确定模型中隐藏状态数和模型数学结构,因此,提出的方法明显优于HMM故障识别方法。     

基于FRWT的模拟电路早期故障诊断

针对模拟电路早期故障诊断的难题,基于分数阶小波转换(fractional wavelet trarsform,FRWT)并结合隐马尔科夫模型(hidden Markov model,HMM),提出了一种模拟电路故障特征分析的新方法。首先将无故障状态和各故障状态下模拟待测试电路(circuit under test,CUT)的响应序列进行分数阶小波分解得到子带响应序列,然后从子带响应序列提取出故障特征向量并构成观测序列训练出HMM,最后利用训练好的HMM对未知状态电路进行诊断。实验结果表明,该方法能有效提取模拟电路的故障特征,完成模拟电路早期故障检测和故障定位。     

A weighted hidden Markov model approach for continuous-state tool wear monitoring and tool life prediction

Tool wear is one of the important indicators to reflect the health status of a machining system. In order to obtain tool’s wear status, tool condition monitoring (TCM) utilizes advanced sensor techniques, hoping to find out the wear status through those sensor signals. In this paper, a novel weighted hidden Markov model (HMM)-based approach is proposed for tool wear monitoring and tool life prediction, using the signals provided by TCM techniques. To describe the dynamic nature of wear evolution, a weighted HMM is first developed, which takes wear rate as the hidden state and formulates multiple HMMs in a weighted manner to include sufficient historical information. Explicit formulas to estimate the model parameters are also provided. Then, a particular probabilistic approach using the weighted HMM is proposed to estimate tool wear and predict tool’s remaining useful life during tool operation. The proposed weighted HMM-based approach is tested on a real dataset of a high-speed CNC milling machine cutters. The experimental results show that this approach is effective in estimating tool wear and predicting tool life, and it outperforms the conventional HMM approach.     

主分量分析和因子隐Markov模型在机械故障诊断中的应用

主分量分析(principal component analysis,PCA)是统计学中分析数据的一种有效方法,可以将高维数据空间变换到低维特征空间,因而可用于多通道冗余消除和特征提取.因子隐Markov模型是隐Markov模型的扩展,它比隐Markov模型更有优势,适用于动态过程时间序列的建模,并具有强大的时序模型分类能力,特别适合非平稳、信号特征重复再现性不佳的信号分析.文中结合主分量分析与因子隐Markov模型,提出一种新的故障识别方法,即以主分量分析方法进行冗余消除和故障特征提取,因子隐Markov模型作为分类器.并应用到机械故障诊断中,同时与基于主分量分析的隐Markov模型的识别方法相比较,实验结果表明基于PCA的因子隐Markov模型识别法和基于PCA的隐Markov模型识别法在故障识别上都是有效的,但对于相同的状态空间,前者的训练速度快于后者,尤其是状态空间越大,这种优势越明显.     

A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF FEATURE SELECTION FOR HIDDEN MARKOV MODEL-BASED MICRO-MILLING TOOL WEAR MONITORING

This paper presents a discriminant feature selection approach for hidden Markov model (HMM) modeling of micro-milling tool conditions. The approach is compared with other popular feature selection methods such as principal component analysis (PCA) and automatic relevance determination (ARD) according to their HMM classification rate. In tool condition monitoring (TCM), there are a lot of features that contain redundant information or less sensitive to tool state discrimination. These features are expected to be deleted for less computation and more robust modeling of tool conditions. Fisher's linear discriminant analysis (FDA) is modified for this purpose. The FDA is generally used for classification, and the features are mapped to another space and lose their physical meanings. In the modified discriminant feature selection, the features are selected in the original feature space by maximizing tool state separation and ranked by their separation ability between different tool states. Experimental results from both micro-milling of copper and steel under different working conditions indicate that the FDA is superior to both PCA and ARD for feature selection in HMM's classification. The reasons behind these differences are also discussed.     

机电系统BIT的非永久故障分析建模与诊断

非永久故障是导致机电系统BIT（built-in test）虚警的一个主要原因,诊断非永久故障既可保证BIT的高故障检测率,同时又可有效地抑制虚警。但是目前缺乏对非永久故障的机理分析与建模,相应的诊断研究也很少。在分析研究非永久故障的表现形式、产生原因与机理的基础上,对被测系统的状态进行马尔可夫建模,再根据被测系统和隐马尔可夫模（hidden Markov model,HMM）的状态都是通过表现来感知的特点,利用HMM对BIT被测系统建模,并提出基于HMM的BIT非永久故障诊断方法,最后通过实验验证表明,此方法能有效地诊断非永久故障,降低BIT虚警。     

基于AR-连续HMM的故障诊断模型及应用

在状态监测与故障诊断中,被测设备的状态一般不能直接观察到,要通过测量被测设备的表现来感知,这和隐马尔可夫模型(HMM)在本质是相通的。因此可以利用连续高斯密度混合HMM分析被测设备的振动信号,首先以AR模型系数为特征,研究不同状态数与不同混合高斯数对HMM模型分类的影响,再利用较优的状态数与混合高斯数HMM模型进行状态监测和故障诊断,诊断与对比实验结果表明该方法能利用少量样本进行训练和有效诊断。     

Study of high-frequency sound signals for tool wear monitoring in micromilling

This study analyzed the sound signals obtained from the micromilling process for microtool wear monitoring. Various spans of spectral features were created by analyzing sound signals on tool wear monitoring in microcutting. The selection algorithm based on class mean scattering criteria and the hidden Markov model (HMM) model was developed to verify the effect of various feature selection algorithms on the system performance. The effect of the feature bandwidth size, the size of observation sequence, and choice of the hidden states for HMM parameters were also studied. The results indicate that the normalized sound signals obtained from the single microphone with a frequency range between 20 and 80 kHz demonstrated the potential to provide a solution to monitor micromills with the proper selection of feature bandwidth and other parameters.     

基于HMM-SVM的故障诊断模型及应用

针对直升机减速器故障诊断中机器学习方法存在的问题，根据隐马尔可夫模型（HMM）适合于处理连续动态信号与支持向量机（SVM）适合于模式分类的长处，提出了基于HMMSVM串联结构的故障诊断模型。通过从减速箱振动信号中有效提取AR特征，利用HMM汁算未知信号与减速器各状态的匹配程度，形成特征向量提供给SVM最后判别，实验结果表明该方法优于单纯的HMM或SVM诊断方法，能利用少量训练样本有效地完成直升机减速器的故障诊断。     

Fault detection in roller bearing operating at low speed and varying loads using Bayesian robust new hidden Markov model

This paper uses Bayesian robust new hidden Markov modeling (BRNHMM) for bearing fault detection and diagnosis based on its acoustic emission signal. A variational Bayesian approach is used that simultaneously approximates the distribution over the hidden states and parameters with simpler distribution hence using Bayesian inference for the estimation of the posterior HMM hyperparameters. This allows for online detection as small data sets can be used. Also, the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence is effectively used to access the divergence of the probability function of the BRNHMM, to find its lower bound approximation and by applying a linear transform to the maximum output probability parameter generation (MOPPG). The training set result obtained from BRNHMM is then compared to the result from artificial neural network (ANN) fault detection for same complex system of low speed and varying load conditions which are difficult from a diagnostic perspective, as found in rolling mills.     

分层隐Markov模型在设备状态识别中的应用研究

与传统的隐Markov模型（HMM）相比较而言,应用分层隐Markov模型（HHMM）对设备进行状态识别有诸多优点,而且能以概率的形式更为精确地计算识别结果。针对模型参数随着设备状态的增加呈指数倍增这一问题,引入动态贝叶斯网络这一新的方法,由于该方法可以有效地降低模型的计算复杂度并缩短推理时间,所以将HHMM表达为动态贝叶斯网络,利用预处理的振动信号对设备的健康状态进行识别;针对现有状态分类方法的局限性,提出了基于K均值算法和交叉验证方法相结合的状态数优化方法;以齿轮箱全寿命实验为依据,对该模型实现状态识别的基本框架和计算过程进行了研究,研究结果为复杂设备的状态识别提供了新的思路。     

基于模态区间的数控机床切削状态监测

随着高速高精数控加工技术的发展,对数控机床切削加工状态的稳定性提出了更高的要求,传统的切削加工状态监测方法中对不确定性处理存在不足。提出了一个基于模态区间的切削状态监测不确定性处理方法,利用模态区间的宽度对传统监测方法中的不确定性加以表述,以解决监测中的不确定性问题。为了验证提出方法的有效性,搭建了切削加工实验平台,通过加速度传感器获取数控机床切削加工信息,由时频分析方法将切削状态划分成稳定、过渡及颤振3个加工阶段,利用基于模态区间的小波包能量百分比方法,提取不同加工阶段的区间特征量,通过Lloyd算法进行编码后作为基于模态区间的广义隐马尔科夫模型的输入特征向量,最后利用广义隐马尔科夫状态辨识方法,对数据机床切削状态进行了识别。实验结果表明,基于模态区间的广义隐马尔科夫模型辨识方法优于传统的隐马尔科夫模型辨识方法。     

基于量子粒子群优化Volterra时域核辨识的隐Markov模型识别方法

将量子粒子群优化算法引入Voherra级数模型的非线性辨识中,并结合隐Markov模型(hidden Markov model,HMM),提出了一种基于量子粒子群优化的Voherra时域核特征提取的HMM识别方法,在提出的方法中,利用量子粒子群优化算法辨识得到的前三阶Volterra时域核作为故障特征,输入到各种状态的HMM中,其中,输出概率最大的HMM对应的状态即为设备的当前运行状态.提出的方法克服了传统的基于Volterra模型系统的机械故障诊断要求目标函数连续可导、容易陷入局部最小以及抗干扰能力差等缺陷.最后,将提出的方法应用到旋转机械故障诊断中.实验结果验证了该方法的有效性.     

基于改进HSMM的设备故障预测方法研究

针对传统隐半马尔科夫模型(HSMM)在故障诊断和预测应用中存在的不足,对传统HSMM做了以下改进:一是将状态持续时间概率分布和监测值概率分布连续化,并假定其服从威布尔分布;二是基于状态开始时间的识别,提出了状态剩余持续时间;三是提出了时变转移概率的概念,给出了各时刻转移概率的计算方法。确立了基于改进HSMM的故障诊断和预测的方法体系,给出了故障诊断判据和设备剩余寿命的计算式。案例研究表明方法是合理有效的。     

Tool condition classification in turning process using hidden Markov model based on texture analysis of machined surface images

Tool condition monitoring has found its importance to meet the requirement of production quality in industries. Machined surface texture is directly affected by the extent of tool wear. Hence, by analyzing the machined surface images, the information about the cutting tool condition can be obtained. This paper presents a novel technique for tool wear classification using hidden Markov model (HMM) technique applied on the features extracted from the gray level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM) of machined surface images. The tool conditions are classified into sharp, semi-dull and dull tool states. The proposed method is found to be cost effective and reliable for on-machine tool classification of cutting tool wear with an average of 95% accuracy.     

变转速变载荷下滚动轴承故障的小波-HMM诊断

常规的谱分析等方法难以对滚动轴承变转速变载荷工况进行故障诊断，为此，采用具有时频局域特征的小波分析法。对变转速变载荷工况下滚动轴承的振动信号。用小波包分解法提取各频带的能量作为特征参数。再采用连续隐Markov模型（HMM）对滚动轴承的状态进行识别。试验证明，小波-HMM可以在变转速变载荷工况下以及未知转速情况下对滚动轴承的各种故障有效地进行诊断。