黄河流域气候与水资源演变特点研究

以观测资料和前人研究成果为基础,阐述了气候变化对黄河流域水资源总量、极端水文事件、水生态环境等的影响;指出气候变化已经影响到了黄河流域水资源系统的各个环节,这种影响是否是趋势性的．未来影响程度如何,有待进一步研究。黄河流域气候变化对水资源影响评估研究正在兴起．黄河流域气候变化研究应该着重极端气象水文事件变化对流域水沙调控体系建设、水资源统一管理和调度、黄土高原区和河口区生态环境等的影响及其适应性管理对策研究,以促进流域综合管理。     

气候变化对干旱内陆河流域水资源影响的研究进展

气候变化对水资源的影响是当前全球变化研究的热点和前沿问题之一。气候变化对干旱内陆河流域水资源影响的研究也越来越引起诸多学者的关注与重视。本文回顾了国内外气候变化对水资源影响研究现状与进展,总结了相关的研究方法,并从水文要素、气候变化与人类活动对水资源的定量评估、气候变化对极端水文事件的影响研究和应对气候变化的水资源适应性管理措施4个方面归纳了相关方面的研究成果。同时指出了气候变化对干旱内陆河流域水资源影响研究存在的问题,并展望了未来气候变化对干旱内陆河流域水资源影响研究的发展趋势。     

Cross-Comparison of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies Across Large River Basins in Europe, Africa and Asia

A cross-comparison of climate change adaptation strategies across regions was performed, considering six large river basins as case study areas. Three of the basins, namely the Elbe, Guadiana, and Rhine, are located in Europe, the Nile Equatorial Lakes region and the Orange basin are in Africa, and the Amudarya basin is in Central Asia. The evaluation was based mainly on the opinions of policy makers and water management experts in the river basins. The adaptation strategies were evaluated considering the following issues: expected climate change, expected climate change impacts, drivers for development of adaptation strategy, barriers for adaptation, state of the implementation of a range of water management measures, and status of adaptation strategy implementation. The analysis of responses and cross-comparison were performed with rating the responses where possible. According to the expert opinions, there is an understanding in all six regions that climate change is happening. Different climate change impacts are expected in the basins, whereas decreasing annual water availability, and increasing frequency and intensity of droughts (and to a lesser extent floods) are expected in all of them. According to the responses, the two most important drivers for development of adaptation strategy are: climate-related disasters, and national and international policies. The following most important barriers for adaptation to climate change were identified by responders: spatial and temporal uncertainties in climate projections, lack of adequate financial resources, and lack of horizontal cooperation. The evaluated water resources management measures are on a relatively high level in the Elbe and Rhine basins, followed by the Orange and Guadiana. It is lower in the Amudarya basin, and the lowest in the NEL region, where many measures are only at the planning stage. Regarding the level of adaptation strategy implementation, it can be concluded that the adaptation to climate change has started in all basins, but progresses rather slowly.     

Impact of summer droughts on water quality of the Rhine River - a preview of climate change?

It is generally recognized that climate change will affect the discharge regime of the Rhine River. Especially the anticipated increase in extreme river discharges (floods and droughts) poses serious problems to water management, both with regard to water quantity and water quality. Water quality effects of climate change are not sufficiently recognized, however. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of droughts on the water quality of the River Rhine. Time series of river flow and water quality were analyzed for station Lobith, located at the Dutch-German border. Over the past three decades, three major droughts were identified, occurring in the years 1976, 1991, and 2003. The water quality during these dry years was compared with the water quality in reference years, characterized by average hydrological conditions and similar chemical pollution. Four groups of water quality parameters were investigated: 1, general variables (water temperature, dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll-a); 2, major ions (chloride, sodium, sulfate, fluoride, bromide); 3, nutrients; and 4, heavy metals. It was found that water quality is negatively influenced by (summer) droughts, with respect to water temperature, eutrophication, major ions and heavy metals. Effects on nutrient concentrations were small for ammonium and could not be demonstrated for nitrate, nitrite and phosphate. The decline in water quality during summer droughts is both related to the high water temperatures and to low river discharges (limited dilution of the chemical load from point sources). Moreover, the impact of the 1976 drought on water quality was far more important than that of the 2003 drought, indicating that the impact of droughts on water quality will be greater when the water quality is already poor.     

A Semi-Distributed Monthly Water Balance Model and its Application in a Climate Change Impact Study in the Middle and Lower Yellow River Basin

Abstract

Human activities and climatic change have greatly impacted hydrological cycles and water resources planning in the Yellow River basin. In order to assess these impacts, a semi-distributed monthly water balance model was proposed and developed to simulate and predict the hydrological processes in the middle and lower Yellow River basin. GIS techniques were used as a tool to analyze topography, river networks, land-use, human activities, vegetation, and soil characteristics. The model parameters were calibrated in 35 gauged sub-basins in the middle Yellow River, and then the relationships between the model parameters and the basin physical characteristics were established. A parameterization scheme was developed in which the model parameters were estimated for each grid element by regression and optimization methods. Based on the different outputs of general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs), the sensitivities to global warming of hydrology and water resources for the Yellow River basin were studied. The proposed models are capable of producing both the magnitude and timing of runoff and water resources conditions. The runoffs are found to be very sensitive to temperature increases and rainfall decreases. Results of the study also indicated that runoff is more sensitive to variation in precipitation than to increase in temperature. The additional uncertainty of climate change has posed a challenge to the existing water resources management practices, and the integration of water resources management will be necessary to enhance the water use efficiency in the Yellow River basin.     

Analysis of Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Hydrological Drought: a Case Study in the Wei River Basin,China

Climate change and human activity are the two major drivers that can alter hydrological cycle processes and influence the characteristics of hydrological drought in river basins. The present study selects the Wei River Basin (WRB) as a case study region in which to assess the impacts of climate change and human activity on hydrological drought based on the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) on different time scales. The Generalized Additive Models in Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) are used to construct a time-dependent SRI (SRI_var) considering the non-stationarity of runoff series under changing environmental conditions. The results indicate that the SRI_var is more robust and reliable than the traditional SRI. We also determine that different driving factors can influence the hydrological drought evolution on different time scales. On shorter time scales, the effects of human activity on hydrological drought are stronger than those of climate change; on longer time scales, climate change is considered to be the dominant factor. The results presented in this study are beneficial for providing a reference for hydrological drought analysis by considering non-stationarity as well as investigating how hydrological drought responds to climate change and human activity on various time scales, thereby providing scientific information for drought forecasting and water resources management over different time scales under non-stationary conditions.     

An Approach for Probabilistic Hydrological Drought Forecasting

This paper proposes an approach to monitor and forecast hydrological drought in a probabilistic manner. The proposed approach deals with the supply and demand variables and the role of carryover in a system to estimate the probability of drought severity at different hydroclimatlogical conditions as well as different storage volume levels. This approach might be of significance when the supply and demand variables of a water resources system change considerably by climate variation. Major probability values and their mutual use in the proposed drought forecasting method are discussed. The presented approach is applied for the hydrological drought forecasting of Zayandeh-rud river basin in Iran. This probabilistic view of drought monitoring and forecasting is useful for risk-based decisions in water resources planning and management. The proposed index could be used to overcome the lack thereof in the existing surface water supply index.     

莱茵河流域水环境管理的经验对长江中下游综合治理的启

以欧洲莱茵河流域近 5 0年的综合治理经验 ,尤其是近 10年相继开展的一系列流域管理行动计划的成果 ,介绍莱茵河从传统的单一流域水管理向以生存质量可持续发展为目标的可持续综合管理转变过程 ,即流域有关国家跨国协调的经验 ,流域内各国为共同治理莱茵河签署的控制化学污染公约、控制氯化物污染公约、防治热污染公约、2 0 0 0年行动计划、洪水管理行动计划等一系列协定 ,由此展望莱茵河流域可持续管理的未来。建议我国在长江三角洲经济发达地区尽快采用严格的欧洲环境管理标准 ,严密监测 ,强化监督 ,依法治理。     

Assessing Impacts of Conservation Measures on Watershed Hydrology Using MIKE SHE Model in the Face of Climate Change

Climate change triggers changes in temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, etc. and has a significant impact on water resources in many regions. Considering the increasing scarcity of water as a result of climate change, conservation of water and groundwater recharge have become crucial factors for water resources planning and management. In this paper, an attempt is made to study the detailed hydrological behaviour of a treated watershed using physically based distributed hydrological modelling system MIKE SHE to assess the impact of conservation measures on watershed hydrology considering future climate change. Three hypothetical management scenarios are simulated for the period 2010–2040. RegCM4 regional climate model is used in the study for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Detailed hydrological water balance is extracted for individual years from 1979 to 2009 to compare relevant components. The evaluation for base period shows 10.06% reduction in surface runoff and 11.33% enhancement in groundwater recharge. Further simulation with RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios show notable reduction in surface runoff and increase in groundwater recharge. The structures in the micro-watershed influence the surface runoff and increase infiltration into the soil, resulting in higher groundwater recharge. MIKE SHE simulations for various structures management scenarios establish the role of conservation measures in reducing surface runoff and enhancing groundwater recharge under substantial effect of climate change. The results will assist in decision-making on watershed development plans in quantitative terms, including planning for water conservation measures in the face of climate change.

     

Model-Supported Impact Assessment for the Water Sector in Central Germany Under Climate Change—A Case Study

Climate change challenges water managers and researchers to find sustainable management solutions, in order to avoid undesirable impacts on water resources, environment and water-dependent sectors. Needed are projections into the future for the main driving forces, the resulting pressures on water resources, and quantification of the impacts. Modeling studies can play an important role in investigating, quantifying, and communicating possible impacts of climate change, with account of uncertainty of the results. However, climate change related impacts and a need for adaptation still play a minor role in current river basin management plans that have to comply e.g. with the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). One important reason is that climate impact assessment is generally done in research institutes, while management plans are designed by practitioners working in national and regional environmental agencies and water supply companies. Knowledge transfer from science to practice and visa versa is often missing. In the present study, we propose a methodology and a case study for model-supported decision making in the water sector applicable to a participatory water resources planning process. The methodology is applied in a case study investigating climate change impacts on water resources. The case study area is the German State of Saxony-Anhalt, where the task was to develop a climate change impact assessment including possible adaptation measures as basis for a federal adaptation directive.     

月水量平衡模型在中国不同气候区的应用

概念性水文模型是目前评价环境变化对区域水文水资源影响的有力工具,大尺度水文模拟是气候变化影响评价中的关键技术.利用10个位于我国不同气候区的代表性流域的水文气象资料.验证了月水量平衡模型在不同气候区的应用效果.结果表明:月水量平衡模型能够适用于我国不同气候区的月流量过程模拟,其中,对湿润半湿润地区的模拟精度好于干旱半干旱地区的模拟效果;若流域内降水径流量关系密切,则水文模拟的效果也会较好.人类活动的影响,使得长序列水文模拟误差增大,但不同人类活动类型对流域水文模拟效果的影响是不同的.     

变化环境下径流演变的研究方法进展

气候变化和人类活动的双重影响使流域天然径流序列发生时空演变。对变化环境背景下径流序列演变规律、驱动因素的研究及在不同气候模式下对未来径流的预估对流域水资源管理和长期规划具有重要意义。为此对当前变化环境下径流演变趋势检验、径流变化归因分析及未来径流趋势预估的相关研究方法进行了全面的回顾,并进行综合对比分析。结果表明：采用多种检验方法组合优于单一检验,其结果更为可靠;气候变化和人类活动影响程度在不同流域、不同时期差异较大;未来径流预估结果的不确定性源于气候模式、水文模型和降尺度方法等多个方面。研究结果可为变化环境下径流演变及其驱动因素的研究提供新思路和科学参考。     

Impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of the Indus,Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins: a review of the literature

The Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins support 700 million people in Asia. The water resources are used for irrigation, drinking, industry, navigation and hydropower. This paper reviews the literature on the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of these river basins and suggests that the different basins are likely to be affected in different ways. Climate change will have a marked affect on meltwater in the Indus Basin and may result in increased flood risk in the Brahmaputra Basin. The overall impact on annual discharge is likely to be low, but more studies are required to understand intra-annual changes and the impact of extreme events.     

干旱区内陆河流域绿洲水循环监测及评价系统

以新疆为例,针对干旱区内陆河流域平原绿洲水资源的运移、转化和消耗等水循环特点,以水资源科学管理,高效利用,合理配置和可持续发展为出发点,提出了加强绿洲水文研究、建立绿洲水循环监测系统及绿洲水资源利用评价系统的初步构想。监测评价系统能适时科学地诊断绿洲水循环过程及水资源利用的合理性,并及时有效地解决绿洲水资源利用存在的问题。     

Climate Change Hydrology and Water Resources Impacts and Adaptation for Selected River Basins in the Czech Republic

In terms of climate, the Czech Republic belongs to the northern hemisphere Atlantic-contin ental type of moderate clim ate. M ean annual temperature ranges between 1.0 and 9.4 C (for summer between 8.8 C and 18.5 C, and for winter between - 6.8 and 0.2 C). Annual precipitation ranges between 450 mm in dry regions and 1300 m m in mountainous regions of the country. With its 2000 m 3 per capita fresh water availability, the Czech Republic is a region that can be characterized as slightly below average in availability. The occasional water shortages usually do n ot result from unavailability of water, but rather from temporal or spatial variability of water supply and demand and a high degree of water resources exploitation. To study poten tial im pacts of climate change on the hydrological system and water resources, four river basins have been selected in the territory of the Czech Republic: the Elbe River at De c i n (50762 km 2), the Zelivka River at Soutice (1189 km 2), the Upa River at Ceska Skalice (461 km 2), and the M etuje River at M ars ov n. M . (94 km 2). To simulate poten tial changes in runoff, three hydrological models have been applied using in cremental and GCM (GISS, GFDL and CCCM ) scenarios: the BILAN water balance model, the SACRAM ENTO (SAC-SM A) conceptual model and the CLIRU N water balance m odel. After comparison of the results, the BILAN m odel was selected to serve for subsequent analyses of hydrological systems in the river basins. The paper reviews methods applied in the study and results of the assessments, and it concludes with suggestions for general adaptation policy options where the preference is for non-structural measures such as water conservation, efficient water dem and management and protection of water resources.     

Macrozoobenthos of floodplain waters of the rivers rhine and meuse in the Netherlands: A structural and functional analysis in relation to hydrology

The river systems of the Rhine and Meuse include a large number of floodplain waters showing differences in hydrology and geomorphology. A classification of 100 water bodies based on their macroinvertebrate communities has been worked out as a tool for ecological management. Analyses were performed on structural (species composition) and functional (trophic relations) aspects of macrozoobenthos in relation to hydrological, vegetational, and physicochemical parameters. Based on the classification of macroinvertebrate communities, three major groups of water bodies can be distinguished, which are related to the frequency of inundation. The flood frequency constitutes the major environmental gradient which structures the zoobenthos communities in the Dutch floodplain waters. Faunal composition is mediated by substrate availability, water chemistry, and the availability of nutritional resources. This typology serves as a basis for the prediction of the impact of hydrology changes on the macrozoobenthic communities of floodplain waters of highly eutrophic and polluted rivers.     

A Microeconomic Perspective on Water Resources Management: Analyzing the Effects on Optimal Land Rents Along a River Basin

Water scarcity is becoming an increasingly relevant issue in many regions of the world as demand for water continues to grow. As a result, the need for finding measures that efficiently allocate increasingly scarce water resources has become a primary topic on the agendas of many water resource management authorities. This paper presents an innovative approach that provides further insight into the connection between hydrological, environmental, and economic aspects along a river basin. In short, it analyzes how land rents along a river basin are affected by managing water pollution along a river basin, given certain hydrological characteristics of the river basin. Results show that, without the implementation of a water management system to control water quality, the negative external effects of upstream water discharges on downstream locations can be internalized through a decrease in downstream land rents. However, the analysis presented in this paper also reveals that it is not only the absence or the presence of a water management system that has a significant impact on the real estate market along the river basin. Moreover, the market outcome also varies with the type of water resources management system implemented.     

长江三角洲地区气候变化背景下城市化发展与水安全问题

全球变暖等气候变化背景下,城市化的高速发展给长江三角洲地区水文和水资源带来了较大的影响,该区域的水安全问题成为人们关注的热点。通过对该地区水文水资源变化气候背景的分析,选择区域内的典型城市,以遥感和GIS作支持,开展以城市化发展为标志的下垫面变化对降雨、径流及暴雨洪水的影响研究,分析了城市化发展对河网水系与水环境的影响。在此基础上,从保证城市水安全的角度,对水资源持续利用与优化配置进行了分析和探讨,以寻求地区城市化发展下的水资源利用与保护的对策措施,从而为保障地区水安全以及经济持续发展提供支持。     

莱茵河警报模型的开发与应用

受第8次莱茵河沿岸国家部长级会议的委托,保护莱茵河国际委员会和莱茵河流域水文国际委员会于1990年共同开发了莱茵河警报模型。1998~1999年荷兰代尔夫特水力学研究所对模型进行了改进,开发了可以计算河流横断面上污染物浓度分布的二维模块。利用目前最新版本的莱茵河警报模型,能够可靠地预报污染物的扩散进程。     

Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in the Tarim River Basin

The plausible association between climate change and the variability of water resources in the Tarim River basin, west China is investigated in this study. The long-term trend of the hydrological time series including temperature, precipitation, and streamflow are detected by using both parametric and nonparametric techniques. The possible association between the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and these three kinds of time series are tested. This study enhances the knowledge of the climate change impact on water resources in the Tarim River basin. The conclusion obtained in this investigation shows that the temperature experienced a significant monotonic increase at the 5% level of significance during the past 50 yr, and precipitation also exhibited an upward tendency during the past several decades. A significant jump is also detected for both time series around 1986. This may be resulted from the possible impact of climate change, although the interior climate mechanism needs further investigation. Although precipitation and the streamflow from the headwater of the Tarim River exhibited significant increase, decreasing trend has been detected in the streamflow along the mainstream of the river. It implies that anthropogenic activities instead of the climate change dominated the streamflow cessation and the drying-up of the river. Results also showed that no significant association exists between the ENSO and the temperature, precipitation and streamflow in the study area. This conclusion shows that the water curtailment, river desiccation, and ecosystem deterioration in the Tarim River basin may be mainly resulted from the impact of human activities.