Distributed Hydrological Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis in Torysa Watershed, Slovakia

The spatially distributed hydrologic model WetSpa is applied to the Torysa river basin (1,297 km²) located in Slovakia. Daily hydrometeorological data from 1991 to 2000 are used as input to the model. The spatial characteristic of the basin are described by three base maps, i.e. DEM, landuse and soil type, in GIS form using 100 m cell size. Results of the simulations show a good agreement between calculated and measured hydrographs at the outlet of the basin. The model predicts the daily discharge values with a good accuracy, i.e. about 73% according to the Nash–Sutcliff criterion. Sensitivity analysis of the model parameters is performed using a model-independent parameter estimator, PEST. It is found that the correction factor for calculating the actual evapotranspiration from potential evaporation has the highest relative sensitivity. Parameter K _gm which controls the amount of evapotranspiration from the groundwater has the least relative sensitivity.     

汉江流域分布式水循环模拟研究

详细描述了汉江流域分布式水文模型构建和求解的过程,验证了WEP模型模拟研究区水循环的可行性。提出了"参数分区"的新理念,为研究参数不确定性空间变异提供了高效的模型空间结构。分别采用分割样本检验法和代表样本检验法对模型模拟结果进行检验。模拟结果的评价采用年径流总量模拟的误差RE、Nash指数及模拟的降雨径流相关系数个指标。     

妫水河流域水文模拟及参数不确定性分析

以北京市延庆区妫水河为例,使用SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)模型对妫水河流域进行月尺度水文模拟,使用SUFI-2(Sequential Uncertainty Fitting)算法分析参数的敏感性,依据SWAT-CUP自动率定得到P因子和R因子分析模型的不确定性,从而完成本流域分布式水文模型的构建。率定结果显示,率定期确定系数R 2为0.65,效率系数NSE为0.61;验证期确定系数R 2为0.89,效率系数NSE为0.88;不确定性分析结果中P-factor均大于0.5,R-factor均小于0.3。通过以上分析可得该模型对妫水河流域的水文模拟有良好的效果。     

Hydrological behaviour and water balance analysis for Xitiaoxi catchment of Taihu Basin

With the rapid social and economic development of the Taihu region, Taihu Lake now faces an increasingly severe eutrophication problem. Pollution from surrounding catchments contributes greatly to the eutrophication of water bodies in the region. Investigation of surface flow and associated mass transport for the Xitiaoxi catchment is of a significant degree of importance as the Xitiaoxi catchment is one of the major catchments within the Taihu region. A SWAT-based distributed hydrological model was established for the Xitiaoxi catchment. The model was calibrated and verified using hydrometeorological data from 1988 to 2001. The results indicate that the modeled daily and annual stream flow match the observed data both in the calibration period and the verification period, with a linear regression coefficient R2 and a coefficient e for modeled daily stream flow greater than 0.8 at Hengtangcun and Fanjiacun gauge stations. The results show that the runoff process in the Xitiaoxi catchment is affected both by rainfall and human activities （e.g., reservoirs and polder areas）. Moreover, the human activities weaken flood peaks more noticeably during rainstorms. The Water balance analysis reveals the percentages of precipitation made up by surface flow, evapotranspiration, groundwater recharge＇ and the change of soil storage, all of which are considered useful to the further understanding of the hydrological processes in the Xitiaoxi catchment. This study provides a good base for further studies in mass transport modeling and comparison of modeling results from similar hydrological models.     

清潩河流域河流环境流量计算与应用

针对北方地区河流环境流量短缺和污染并存的现状,在综合考虑水质保护与水量维持的情况下界定了河流环境流量的概念和内涵,并探讨不同功能目标下河流环境流量的组成。通过分析河流水系特征及河段的空间结构特征,建立了改善河流水质所需环境流量计算模型,同时建立了Tennant和湿周模型计算河流生态系统所需环境流量。利用临颍高村桥的水文水质数据,对清潩河为改善河流水质和生态系统所需环境流量进行了初步评价,为河流应急补水提供了调控建议,并提出了河道应常年保持的流量水平。     

郑州市贾鲁河流域水循环模拟

以郑州市贾鲁河流域为研究区,在地理信息系统技术支持下,使用DEM、土地利用、土壤、气象、人工取用水数据、农业管理措施等资料构建了基于分布式水文模型SWAT的流域水循环模拟模型,应用改进的SWAT模型进行了流域水循环模拟,并利用实测数据对模型进行了参数率定和模型验证,采用相对误差、NASH效率系数、相关系数作为模型适应性评价指标,结果表明模型在研究区有较好的适应性。可以为流域水循环演变规律的系统揭示和区域水资源的综合调控提供了技术支撑。     

宁家河流域径流与洪水特性分析

从宁家河流域自然地理、气候特征、河流概况、降水等自然特性,论述了宁家河流域径流的年内、年际变化规律,洪水类型和洪水成因;全面分析了宁家河流域的环境与水文特征。     

煤矿开采对窟野河地表径流影响的水文模拟

为了探明煤炭开采与窟野河河川径流减少甚至断流之间的关系,利用窟野河控制性水文站——温家川站1953—2010年逐日流量资料及相关水文气象资料,在对其径流变化特性进行分析的基础上,通过黄河月水量平衡模型模拟定量评价煤矿开采对地表径流的影响。结果表明:1953年以来,窟野河流域实测径流量以1979年和1999年为转折点总体上呈现阶段性减少趋势;人类活动对径流减少影响的比例由1979—1998年的39.44%快速上升到1999—2010年的56.50%,其中,煤矿开采对径流的影响量年均值在1999—2010年间达到29.69 mm,约2.58亿m3/a,成为影响窟野河地表径流减少的主导因素。     

流域水文数据挖掘体系研究

针对流域水文数据存在的海量、复杂、时空性等一系列特点,面向流域防洪与兴利等主题,建立了以数据层、组织层、挖掘层以及决策层为基础的流域水文数据挖掘体系,并从数据仓库、数据挖掘、元数据管理等几个方面建立了该体系的分析流程,为流域防洪和兴利业务提供了新的解决方案。将数据挖掘体系初步应用于流域的预报和调度中,证明在有充足数据的支持下．形成可行的流域预报和调度方案是合理可行的。随着数据管理、数据分析等技术日益完善．以数据仓库、数据挖掘等技术为基础的水文数据挖掘体系将逐步走向实用化。     

Hydrological assessment of TRMM rainfall data over Yangtze River Basin

High-quality rainfall information is critical for accurate simulation of runoff and water cycle processes on the land surface. In situ monitoring of rainfall has a very limited utility at the regional and global scale because of the high temporal and spatial variability of rainfall. As a step toward overcoming this problem, microwave remote sensing observations can be used to retrieve the temporal and spatial rainfall coverage because of their global availability and frequency of measurement. This paper addresses the question of whether remote sensing rainfall estimates over a catchment can be used for water balance computations in the distributed hydrological model. The TRMM 3B42V6 rainfall product was introduced into the hydrological cycle simulation of the Yangtze River Basin in South China. A tool was developed to interpolate the rain gauge observations at the same temporal and spatial resolution as the TRMM data and then evaluate the precision of TRMM 3B42V6 data from 1998 to 2006. It shows that the TRMM 3B42V6 rainfall product was reliable and had good precision in application to the Yangtze River Basin. The TRMM 3B42V6 data slightly overestimated rainfall during the wet season and underestimated rainfall during the dry season in the Yangtze River Basin. Results suggest that the TRMM 3B42V6 rainfall product can be used as an alternative data source for large-scale distributed hydrological models.     

分布式水文模型EasyDHM在北江流域的应用

为了解决珠江流域咸潮上溯问题,需要在枯水期对流域水库群进行压咸调度。合理调度的前提是准确掌握流域的来水情况,以便在满足发电需要的基础上兼顾生态需要,特别是在枯水期。飞来峡水库是北江流域的重要水库,位于珠江流域下游,在流域抑咸调度中起到关键的作用。为了对飞来峡水库来水过程进行水文模拟分析,以分布式水文模型EasyDHM为基础,利用DEM、实测河网、土壤、土地利用及水文气象数据,构建了北江流域分布式水文模型。通过模型的参数率定以及验证发现,模型精度较高,可以很好的应用于流域水情形势分析;对飞来峡水库旬入库过程统计发现,枯水期来水量最小值出现在12月上中旬,这对于确定流域抑咸统一调度的最佳时期也有着重要的意义。     

Hydrological Modeling of Zarqa River Basin – Jordan Using the Hydrological Simulation Program – FORTRAN (HSPF) Model

Jordan is an arid country with limited water resources, so there is a chronic need to study and understand its hydrology at the watershed scale which will eventually help in achieving good management for the existing scarce water resources. The studied watershed was the Zarqa River Basin which is considered as the largest watershed in Jordan. The objective of this study was to calibrate the hydrological component of the Hydrological Simulation Program – FORTRAN (HSPF) model for the Zarqa River Basin. The calibrated model could be used in a later stage to examine the impact of different management practices and climate change scenarios on the water resources in the basin. The calibration of the HSPF water quantity parameters was aided by GIS and by the automatic calibration model (PEST). The automatic calibration was done for the years 1988–1991 and the validation was done for the years 1996–1998. The coefficient of determination, R ² for the calibration and verification years of the monthly flows was 0.81 and 0.76, respectively.     

分布式水文模型构建及在黄河区间流域的应用

选择位于黄河支流洛河中游的长水—宜阳区间流域作为研究对象,基于数字高程模型,计算栅格水流方向、集水面积和栅格演算次序,为产汇流计算打下基础。把1个栅格单元作为1个小子流域,基于栅格采用新安江模型进行产流计算,采用Muskingum-Cunge算法进行河道洪水演算。结果表明,基于DEM的分布式水文模型在洪峰误差控制和过程拟合等方面表现较好,洪水模拟具有较高的精度。     

大渡河毛头码水文站水文资料一致性分析

一些大型水电工程的建设和运行,使流域径流时空分布特征产生了一定变化,尤其对下游水文站的实测径流、洪水资料系列的一致性有一定影响。应用此类水文资料时,需将受影响水文资料还原至天然状况。以大渡河中游毛头码水文站为例,对该站1987~2014年的实测径流、洪水资料的一致性进行分析,并采用水量平衡方法进行一致性还原计算。计算结果表明,采用水量平衡法还原的毛头码站径流、洪水系列具有一致性,可用于相关工程设计。     

DEM网格尺度对水文模拟影响的研究

选择汉江上游旬河流域为研究对象．研究了DEM网格尺度对提取流域地形特征参数的影响．采用基于地形指数的TOPMODEL模型进行水文模拟,进而分析DEM网格尺度和不同流向分配方法对径流模拟结果的影响。结果表明,DEM网格尺度对流域地形特征参数的影响还比较大,但由于模型参数率定采用了优选算法,掩盖了不同DEM网格尺度和不同流向分配方法计算的地形指数的差别．使得模拟的结果相差不大。但随着网格尺度的增大．多向分配法模拟的结果要比单向分配法好一些。     

梅江松源河段非一致性水文频率分析

随着气候变化以及人类活动的影响,水文要素时间序列的一致性受到广泛质疑,传统水文频率分析已经不能满足日益精进的水文设计精度要求,如何将非一致性水文要素时间序列转化成符合一致性要求的序列是当今水文数据处理研究的重点。该文以梅江流域松源河上的宝坑站为例,进行水文变异以及非一致性水文频率分析。采用Mann－Kendall检测法以及Lee－Heghinian法对宝坑年径流量进行突变点检验,将水文变异序列进行基于趋势分析的非一致性水文频率分析以及基于两P－Ⅲ混合分布的非一致性水文频率分析。结果显示：宝坑站年径流量序列在1983年发生了变异;经过一致性修正后,百年一遇年径流量比原始序列减小了3．10％。     

赣江下游平原圩区水文过程模拟

不同于山区丘陵地区,平原圩区地形平坦,河网交错,水文过程复杂不确定,且缺乏有效的水文观测数据,因此SWAT模型的构建和应用受到较大的限制。以赣江下游平原圩区蒋巷联圩为例,在充分调查研究区水文过程的基础上,结合人工干预技术,经过电排站出口和河道概化、汇水区划分和子流域边界修正,完成了研究区SWAT模型子流域概化;以2006年-2008年圩区电排站的抽水量数据为基础,进行了圩区水文过程模拟。结果表明,各汇水区率定期的决定系数R2达到0.63以上,Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数NSE达到0.70以上;验证期R2达到0.70以上,NSE达到0.79以上。采用人工干预的方法能使SWAT模型子流域划分更加符合实际,使SWAT模型能够应用于平原圩区,并达到较好的水文过程模拟效果。     

长江上游流域短期水文气象耦合预报技术研究

为延长水文预报有效预见期,提高预报精度,采用WRF模型降雨预报作为输入,建立针对长江上游的WRF定量降雨预报模型,利用2014年WRF模型对长江上游的预报结果,采用水文气象耦合的方式,研究输入资料在空间尺度变化的情况下对水文预报的影响。     

杨梅河流域“海绵型”综合管廊水文效应模拟EI北大核心CSCD

以广州市国家综合管廊试点区域——杨梅河流域为研究对象,利用SWMM和SUSTAIN模型对传统开发情景、传统综合管廊情景、低影响开发情景、低影响开发和综合管廊联合作用的“海绵型”综合管廊情景下的水文效应进行对比评估,结果表明:实测降雨条件下,SWMM模型的模拟结果与流域内涝实际情况相符,证明该模型适用于杨梅河流域水文效应研究;结合SWMM和SUSTAIN模型的优势,将SUSTAIN模型中的低影响开发优化布局方案输入至SWMM模型进行水文模拟,使得低影响开发布局更科学合理;“海绵型”综合管廊情景下,溢流量削减效果最佳,50 a重现期设计降雨条件下溢流总量削减率超过60%,与“快排”模式下的传统综合管廊情景相比,“海绵型”综合管廊使杨梅河出水口峰值流量明显降低,峰现时间也相应延迟。     

黄河流域土壤水资源评估

应用区域水量平衡模式计算了黄河全流域、上、中、下游地区和西北黄河区的土壤水资源量。全流域土壤水资源量多年平均为2681．4亿m^3,占降水量的81．5％,是水资源总量的4.47倍。西北黄河区的土壤水资源量为2436．8亿m^3,占全流域的土壤水资源量的90.9％,占降水量的81％,是水资源总量的4．27倍。黄河流域土壤水资源量是水资源重要组成部分,是极宝贵的农业水资源。