Challenges for a shared European countryside of uncertain future. Towards a modern community-based landscape perspective

This paper addresses current changes in the highly diverse European landscape, and the way these transitions are being treated in policy and landscape management in the fragmented, heterogeneous and dynamic context of today’s Europe. It appears that intersecting driving forces are increasing the complexity of European landscapes and causing polarising developments in agricultural land use, biodiversity conservation and cultural landscape management. On the one hand, multifunctional rural landscapes, especially in peri-urban regions, provide services and functions that serve the citizens in their demand for identity, support their sense of belonging and offer opportunities for recreation and involvement in practical landscape management. On the other hand, industrial agricultural production on increasingly large farms produces food, feed, fibre and energy to serve expanding international markets with rural liveability and accessibility as a minor issue. The intermediate areas of traditionally dominant small and family farms in Europe seem to be gradually declining in profitability. The paper discusses the potential of a governance approach that can cope with the requirement of optimising land-sharing conditions and community-based landscape development, while adapting to global market conditions.     

Climate impacts on European agriculture and water management in the context of adaptation and mitigation—The importance of an integrated approach

We review and qualitatively assess the importance of interactions and feedbacks in assessing climate change impacts on water and agriculture in Europe. We focus particularly on the impact of future hydrological changes on agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation and adaptation options. Future projected trends in European agriculture include northward movement of crop suitability zones and increasing crop productivity in Northern Europe, but declining productivity and suitability in Southern Europe. This may be accompanied by a widening of water resource differences between the North and South, and an increase in extreme rainfall events and droughts. Changes in future hydrology and water management practices will influence agricultural adaptation measures and alter the effectiveness of agricultural mitigation strategies. These interactions are often highly complex and influenced by a number of factors which are themselves influenced by climate. Mainly positive impacts may be anticipated for Northern Europe, where agricultural adaptation may be shaped by reduced vulnerability of production, increased water supply and reduced water demand. However, increasing flood hazards may present challenges for agriculture, and summer irrigation shortages may result from earlier spring runoff peaks in some regions. Conversely, the need for effective adaptation will be greatest in Southern Europe as a result of increased production vulnerability, reduced water supply and increased demands for irrigation. Increasing flood and drought risks will further contribute to the need for robust management practices.The impacts of future hydrological changes on agricultural mitigation in Europe will depend on the balance between changes in productivity and rates of decomposition and GHG emission, both of which depend on climatic, land and management factors. Small increases in European soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks per unit land area are anticipated considering changes in climate, management and land use, although an overall reduction in the total stock may result from a smaller agricultural land area. Adaptation in the water sector could potentially provide additional benefits to agricultural production such as reduced flood risk and increased drought resilience.The two main sources of uncertainty in climate impacts on European agriculture and water management are projections of future climate and their resulting impacts on water and agriculture. Since changes in climate, agricultural ecosystems and hydrometeorology depend on complex interactions between the atmosphere, biosphere and hydrological cycle there is a need for more integrated approaches to climate impacts assessments. Methods for assessing options which “moderate” the impact of agriculture in the wider sense will also need to consider cross-sectoral impacts and socio-economic aspects.     

Projected water consumption in future global agriculture: scenarios and related impacts

Global stress on water and land resources is increasing as a consequence of population growth and higher caloric food demand. Many terrestrial ecosystems have already massively been degraded for providing agricultural land, and water scarcity related to irrigation has damaged water dependent ecosystems. Coping with the food and biomass demand of an increased population, while minimizing the impacts of crop production, is therefore a massive upcoming challenge. In this context, we developed four strategies to deliver the biotic output for feeding mankind in 2050. Expansion on suitable and intensification of existing areas are compared to assess associated environmental impacts, including irrigation demand, water stress under climate change, and the productivity of the occupied land. Based on the agricultural production pattern and impacts of the strategies we identified the trade-offs between land and water use. Intensification in regions currently under deficit irrigation can increase agricultural output by up to 30%. However, intensified crop production causes enormous water stress in many locations and might not be a viable solution. Furthermore, intensification alone will not be able to meet future food demand: additionally, a reduction of waste by 50% along the food supply chain or expansion of agricultural land is required for satisfying current per-capita meat and bioenergy consumption. Suitable areas for such expansion are mainly located in Africa, followed by South America. The increased land stress is of smaller concern than the water stress modeled for the intensification case. Therefore, a combination of waste reduction with expansion on suitable pastures generally results as the best option, along with some intensification on selected areas. Our results suggested that minimizing environmental impacts requires fundamental changes in agricultural systems and international cooperation, by producing crops where it is most environmentally efficient and not where it is closest to demand or cheapest.     

PLUREL:城市边缘区土地利用战略与可持续影响评估工具

PLUREL是一个探讨城市边缘区土地利用战略与可持续影响评估工具的综合项目,选取7个案例以探索城市土地之间利用的关系.自从二战以后,城市化是土地用途变化最为显著的过程.不同空间模式、文化、规划政策和迥异的城市化或城市衰退的驱动力等因素导致城乡之间出现土地利用联系和功能关联.研究阐述了城市扩张的后果及正面影响,并从7个方面提出了城市边缘区的土地利用战略及可持续影响评估工具:交通、土地利用和露天空间规划之间的更好协同作用,优良治理和政策集成方法,通过保护和密实化实现城市控制,发展拥有美丽内城区的紧凑型花园城市,确保生物多样性、创建促进健康的交通系统,保护和开发蓝色和绿色基础设施,促进本地生产和短循环和生态服务系统.以期通过已有的城市发展和城乡关系建设知识和经验,努力向发展中国家提供支持.     

Changes in land cover and vegetation carbon stocks in Andalusia, Southern Spain (1956-2007)

Land use has significantly changed during the recent decades at global and local scale, while the importance of ecosystems as sources/sinks of C has been highlighted, emphasizing the global impact of land use changes. Land use changes can increase C loss rates which are extremely difficult to reverse, in the short term, opposite to organic carbon (OC) which accumulates in soil in the long-term. The aim of this research is to improve and test methodologies to assess land cover change (LCC) dynamics and temporal and spatial variability in C stored in vegetation at a wide scale. LCCs between 1956 and 2007 in Andalusia (Southern Spain) were selected for this pilot study, assessed by comparison of spatial data from 1956 to 2007 and were reclassified following land cover flows (LCFs) reported in major areas in Europe. Carbon vegetation densities were related to land cover, and C vegetation stocks for 1956 and 2007 were calculated by multiplying C density for each land cover class with land cover areas. The study area has supported important changes during the studied period with significant consequences for vegetation C stocks, mainly due to afforestation and intensification of agriculture, resulting in a total vegetation C stock of 156.08 Tg in 2007, with an increase of 17.24 Tg since 1956. This study demonstrates the importance of LCC for C sequestration in vegetation from Mediterranean areas, highlighting possible directions for management policies in order to mitigate climate change as well as promoting land conservation. The methodologies and information generated in this project will be a useful basis for designing land management strategies helpful for decision makers.     

The impact of urbanization policy on land use change: A scenario analysis

The rapid urbanization has led to extensive land use change particularly in those developing countries. In line with the development of urbanization, arable land is decreasing dramatically, which presents the threat to the food security for human being. It is therefore essential to understand the level of impacts of urbanization on the land use change. This paper introduces a dynamic systems based method for assessing the impacts of urbanization policy on land use change with reference to the urbanization practice in China. Four typical policy scenarios are identified in implementing urbanization in China, including balanced development driven by planning, uneven development driven by planning, balanced development driven by market and uneven development driven by market and their impacts on land use change are analyzed through a dynamic system model. Land use change is considered as a dynamic system model composing five subsystems: urbanization, social, economic, environmental and land use subsystems. The key attributes in these five subsystems are interactive and they are dynamic variables. The assessment on the impacts of urbanization policy to land use change is demonstrated through employing the software iThink to the land use change dynamic model, using the data collected from the Jinyun County in China. The findings suggest that the urban construction land will continue to increase in the foreseeable future in China, whilst the agricultural land will gradually decrease. Nevertheless, different policy scenarios will have different impacts on these land changes. Thus decision makers can adopt different policies to control the rate of land use change.     

Agro-Pelago: Foodscapes for the Future

What if landscape architects could cultivate the sea to produce food? In the future, rising populations and the demand on resource consumption alongside the crisis of climate change leave agricultural land in coastal areas facing extinction. Across the globe, rising sea levels causes farmland flooded by salt water, unsustainable farming depletes soils, pollinators and crop varieties increase, and as land transforms from arable to urbanized, food security disappears. These worldwide threats present opportunities for landscape architecture to re-envision food landscapes for the future. Presented through an animated and narrated film, Agro-Pelago addresses global food security challenges while implementing local solutions.     

Large-scale Spatial Patterns in Species Richness of Orthoptera in the Greater London Area,United Kingdom: Relationships with Land Cover

This paper explores species richness of insects of the order Orthoptera (grasshoppers, crickets, etc.) along spatial gradients defined using remotely sensed land cover data for an area of 5600?km² centred on the city of London. The number of species within grid-squares of a national atlas, controlled for recording effort, declined along composite multivariate spatial gradients representing landscapes with increasing dominance of arable and urban land uses, yet was uncorrelated with the area of an individual land cover representing cultivated land, and only weakly correlated with a second land cover representing urban development. Few orthopteran species reside directly within either arable crops or non-vegetated urban land covers. Thus, whilst the areas of the individual land covers are intuitively sensible (and simple) measures of agricultural and urban cover respectively, their areas do not capture ecologically relevant information about variation in the composition of the uncultivated and non-urban land cover matrices within which the species actually reside. The results illustrate the advantages of using multivariate data reduction techniques (such as the Principle Components Analysis applied here) to describe spatial gradients in the extent of agricultural and urban influence. Relatively few landscape scale studies have focused on insects and the present study illustrates a) the potential for using Orthoptera to explore issues of biodiversity in the landscape and to monitor impacts of land use via analysis of large-scale spatial patterns from national species distribution atlases combined with remotely sensed land cover, and b) the importance of selecting appropriate measures of land use which incorporate information on the complex mix of land cover types utilised by the species under investigation.     

由单一走向多样：平原农业区生物多样性 保护的规划途径——以辽宁省黑山县为例

平原农业区的生产和土地利用方式严重影响区域的生物多样性,利用融合多学科的景观空间规划构建有效的评价方法和格局优化模式以实现多样化的生境保护和恢复,提升生物多样性具有重要的作用。以辽宁省黑山县为例,首先梳理了平原农业区对于生物多样性威胁的机制和研究的框架;其次识别平原农业区的特殊生境类型,使用景观格局指数和In VEST模型的生境质量评价构建多尺度生境质量评价机制;同时使用基于图论和电路理论的LinkageMapper软件,识别和分级空间中的重要生态源地、潜在廊道及廊道上的关键夹点区域。结果显示,农业景观中空间异质性和连接性影响生物多样性;研究区有主要生境23类,整体生境质量较差,农田面积较大是造成该问题的主要原因;识别出核心斑块33个,重要廊道34条,通过与卫星图比照,廊道位置与线性生境重合;关键夹点区域位于靠近农村居民点的自然生境上,故营造人类干扰与生态平衡农村居住区是空间规划的重点;同时根据以上研究提出了多尺度的空间规划途径,为平原农业区生境优化和生物多样性保护提供了一定的理论参考。     

Proposing an agricultural belt to protect a city’s semi-rural characteristics: The example of Bartın,Turkey

Urban sprawl, a type of urban expansion, is perceived as a global problem due to changes in land conversions and landscape patterns. Farms, forests and shores have been converted into urban areas; this transformation affects energy flow, biochemical cycles and climatic conditions. To follow and evaluate the physical, social and ecological results of urban sprawl, we identified and measured temporal changes in land use and land cover. This is especially important for urban planning policies. In this study, temporal change is identified in the city of Bart?n using remote sensing and landscape metrics. An analysis of land cover and land transformation was done with LANDSAT5 TM/ETM satellite images from 1985 and 2015. These images were used to identify agricultural areas as land that has most commonly undergone drastic changes. Bart?n is a small semi-rural city that has undergone significant changes. Among the most important reasons for these changes were uncontrolled urban sprawl due to political and administrative decisions that lacked long-term planning and a comprehensive city plan. This study examined the risk factors for loss of semi-rural characteristics using the example of Bart?n city. To protect semi-rural city characteristics and control urban sprawl, we propose an agricultural belt based on spatial suitability and an evaluation of landscape metrics.     

A fast environmental change detection approach based on unsupervised multiscale texture clustering

In this paper, an analytic model for mapping land cover change that uses a novel multiresolution analysis in concert with image differencing to identify environmental change/no‐change areas is presented. The method adaptively chooses thresholds to segment targets from background, by using multiscale decomposition of the image difference. Changes due to atmospheric influences are automatically suppressed and resolution heterogeneity problems minimized. Examples that demonstrate the efficiency of the technique on medium spatial resolution Landsat multitemporal imagery are presented. Empirical evaluation supports the suitability of this technique for fast identification of changed scenes. As opposed to the traditional change detection methods, we directly detect land cover changes rather than simply pixels. This is evident from the less‐pixelated appearance of the change maps. The technique is recommended for regional/local environmental vulnerability and risk assessment as well for automated updating of GIS databases.     

Drivers of European landscape change: stakeholders’ perspectives through Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping

Understanding complex processes of landscape change is crucial to guide the development of future landscapes and land resources. Through Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping, we studied the processes of landscape change of six different environmental zones in Europe. Results show that landscapes are complex systems, with many interactions. Except for one, all regions show a strong decline in landscape quality. Dominant drivers are EU policy and the global economy, sometimes in conjunction with environmental drivers or the governance system. The process of change differs for all cases, through urbanisation or land abandonment in some cases, and agricultural intensification in others. The (un)intended effects of policies are difficult to predict. Although some EU Policies directly improve landscape quality, their indirect effects as well as other EU policies outweigh this positive influence and jointly result in a decrease of landscape quality. To counter these negative side effects, targeted landscape policies are urgently needed.     

基于宏观调控对上海土地需求的量化研究

在根据宏观经济调控对上海城市经营性用地需求规律进行分析的基础上,通过对土地需求、土地储备与土地供应的关联分析,建立BP神经网络预测模型,研究上海用地需求趋势和对具体指标进行量化分析,得出土地需求总量,提出“十一五”时期上海经济发展对经营性土地需求和土地储备的调控指标。     

Transition of the satoyama landscape in the urban fringe of the Tokyo metropolitan area from 1880 to 2001

An explicit understanding of past landscapes is a basic and important issue, which enables deeper understanding of current landscapes in a longer context and gives useful suggestion to today's landscape planning. In this paper, transition of the traditional Japanese agricultural landscape (satoyama landscape) over a relatively long temporal scale (1880–2001), and its inherent dynamics in each of four socioeconomically based time periods in two topographically different areas around the Tokyo metropolitan area was studied. Information derived from historical records and interviews was used to differentiate four socioeconomic periods, and to support and explain the results of the analysis. Old maps and aerial photographs were used to create land use maps, which were analyzed using GIS. The results illustrated drastic landscape change from agricultural to urban landscape, with unique land use and transition patterns in each study area. A large part of both study areas was affected by bi-directional conversion between woodlands and crop fields in the early part of the study period, in the form of shifting agriculture. Our results also showed that the landscapes are becoming less dynamic and it may suggest reconsideration for land use planning, which will lead to more stabilized landscapes.     

The role of land abandonment in landscape dynamics in the SPA ‘Encinares del río Alberche y Cofio, Central Spain, 1984–1999

Land use has changed dramatically over the last 30–40 years throughout the Mediterranean. Much of this change has been driven by shifts in agricultural and socio-economic policy. This paper explores landscape dynamics in the SPA ‘Encinares del río Alberche y Cofio’ Central Spain between 1984 and 1999 in an area of approximately 83,000 ha. Categorical land cover maps, derived from three (1984, 1991 and 1999) remotely sensed Landsat images, are analyzed using a suite of landscape pattern metrics, and a simple transition matrix model of landscape change is developed. As with other landscapes in the Mediterranean a key trend is that of the abandonment of agricultural land and its subsequent succession to scrubland and woodland. Although there were significant composition changes in the landscape over the study period configurational changes are less evident. The transition matrix model suggests that there were differences in landscape dynamics between 1984–1991 and 1991–1999—most importantly an increase in the rate of land abandonment is evident. The model predicts a steady state landscape containing a higher abundance of scrubland and woodland, and a corresponding decline in pastureland and cropland. Finally, the underlying socio-economic and other drivers of landscape change in the Encinares del río Alberche y Cofio and some of the implications of recent changes are discussed in terms of increased wildfire risk. Sustainable management of landscapes to protect biodiversity requires the type of study described here. A necessary pre-requisite of such management activities or planning is an assessment of changes in landscape pattern and process, the social and economic pressures driving them, and their possible effects on ecosystem structure and function.     

Transition of the satoyama landscape in the urban fringe of the Tokyo metropolitan area from 1880 to 2001

An explicit understanding of past landscapes is a basic and important issue, which enables deeper understanding of current landscapes in a longer context and gives useful suggestion to today's landscape planning. In this paper, transition of the traditional Japanese agricultural landscape (satoyama landscape) over a relatively long temporal scale (1880–2001), and its inherent dynamics in each of four socioeconomically based time periods in two topographically different areas around the Tokyo metropolitan area was studied. Information derived from historical records and interviews was used to differentiate four socioeconomic periods, and to support and explain the results of the analysis. Old maps and aerial photographs were used to create land use maps, which were analyzed using GIS. The results illustrated drastic landscape change from agricultural to urban landscape, with unique land use and transition patterns in each study area. A large part of both study areas was affected by bi-directional conversion between woodlands and crop fields in the early part of the study period, in the form of shifting agriculture. Our results also showed that the landscapes are becoming less dynamic and it may suggest reconsideration for land use planning, which will lead to more stabilized landscapes.     

Land conversion and market equilibrium: insights from a simulated landscape

We specify a system of equations that fully reflects the supply and demand sides of the market for agricultural open space at equilibrium. Although simple, the system is exceedingly flexible and allows for household and parcel heterogeneity. We derive an empirical model directly from the structural equations and contrast this using a simulated landscape with the econometric specification most often found in the literature. We then show how the model can be used to project land-use change into the future and for policy simulation. Finally, we use the model to examine the impact of common land conservation policies in Europe.     

Same Land Cover,Same Land Use at the Large Scale,Different Landscapes at the Small Scale: Landscape Change in Olive Plantations on Lesvos Island,Greece

In this paper, agricultural landscape change at the small scale (for example, at the farm and field level) is studied to conceptualize the processes that change these landscapes (such as features, forms and functions) according to the decisions that farmers make. The case study is olive plantations on the island of Lesvos, Greece. The five-year differences in land cover, land use and landscape at the small scale of a number of olive fields in the same area are studied in three dimensions: symbolic, productive and ecological, with data that come from the observation of practices and vegetation measurements. A conceptual framework is constructed that links the changes of six different landscapes at the individual olive field level with specific management choices of farmers. Findings demonstrate that although olive plantations are of the same land cover and land use class as at the large scale, diverging practices create different landscapes at the small scale along a continuous line with many intermediate cases. The findings also demonstrate that the whole system is dynamic, with the different small-scale landscapes changing into each other continuously due to different practices. Understanding this dynamic diversity requires studying human interventions at the right scale, the one that corresponds to the scale of the changes at the farm.     

Interdisciplinary Analysis of Hedgerow Network Landscapes' Sustainability

Hedgerows with pollarded trees are still emblematically shaping many agricultural landscapes in Western Europe; they are part of our heritage but their future is uncertain due to the enlargement of fields and loss of firewood use. As a consequence the sustainability of these agricultural landscapes is questioned. We studied changes in hedgerow management in a long-term ecological site in Brittany, France with an interdisciplinary approach. Importance, spatial distribution and relationship with the agricultural system have been assessed over 11 years in three contrasted hedgerow network landscapes, while management practices and farmers' perception were studied from an anthropological point of view. Two apparently opposed trends were found: first, an apparent decrease in the interest of farmers for hedgerows witnessed by the diminishing of the rate of pruning; second, changing attitudes of farmers not necessarily toward hedgerow abandonment but rather toward the production of novel shapes for pruned trees.     

美国油气行业国家温室气体清单和报送体系

为探究县域城镇在发展过程中土地利用及其生态风险变化情况,将高原坝区城市姚安县作为研究对象,选取2012年和2019年土地利用变更数据,运用土地利用动态度、转移矩阵、生态风险评价模型等方法,结合ArcGIS 10.2及Fragstats 4.2软件,对研究区进行了土地利用变化特征分析及生态风险评价。结果表明:2012~2019年间,各土地利用类型之间转移态势显著增强,林地类型变化量最大,以转入转移模式为主,转入量主要来自草地和耕地;建设用地则是通过侵占耕地进行扩张,其他地类也发生了不同程度的变化。从生态风险评价及风险区分布方面来看,2012年~2019年姚安县整体生态风险空间分异显著,低生态风险区面积不断增加且逐渐向周边乡镇蔓延,中高生态风险区则不断向中部地区集中。