共查询到19条相似文献,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
This paper estimates the social rate of return to research and development (R&D) in the energy manufacturing industry. Our model tries to quantify the positive contribution that lagged R&D has on total factor productivity (TFP) growth in the manufacturing of coal, petroleum products and nuclear fuel for a number of OECD countries. Using a panel of data from the OECD STAN database we are able to obtain results suggesting that R&D has a positive and significant rate of return that varies for each country. 相似文献
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Are public R&D programs really effective in developing innovative technologies? How many technologies developed in these programs have been successfully commercialized? What are the key factors for successful commercialization and diffusion in the market? This paper tries to answer these questions by examining the Japanese experience of public R&D in demand-side energy efficiency, focusing on two major projects conducted in the 1980s and 1990s. It is found that of the 34 technologies developed in the two projects, only seven have been commercialized so far, four of those seven have only a very limited number of installations, and only one has a growing market. The results show that, while public R&D investments have a high risk of failure, they can bring new technologies to the market after a certain lead time. In addition, several factors resulting in the success or failure of commercialization/diffusion are identified, such as long-term R&D support by the government, a marketing strategy to respond to and influence market demand, and combination of R&D and deployment policy. 相似文献
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Energy is important for China and for the whole world. Previously, the huge investment in energy-related research and commercialisation made it possible for China to cooperate with its international partners in various channels, and programs involving international cooperation and co-published papers increased annually. In this paper, through the review of intergovernmental cooperation programs and bibliometric analysis of the top energy journals, it was found that: (1) intergovernmental cooperation and non-governmental cooperation are two effective channels for energy R&D. (2) In these two channels, most participants of international cooperation are universities and institutes, and the most important partner countries are the US, Japan, and European Countries. (3) Industries began to be involved in international cooperation gradually. (4) For different areas, the degree of cooperation is not the same. Some areas have been more fruitful in cooperation, some are just beginning hydrogen energy, fuel energy and applied energy are the main co-publication areas with Chinese involvement; while wind energy, solar energy, fuel cells and bio-energy are new areas for China and there has not been so much co-publication until now. 相似文献
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This paper aims to perform a real options valuation of fusion energy R&D programme. Strategic value of thermonuclear fusion technology is estimated here based on the expected cash flows from construction and operation of fusion power plants and the real options value arising due to managerial flexibility and the underlying uncertainty. First, a basic investment option model of Black–Scholes type is being considered. Then, a fuzzy compound real R&D option model is elaborated, which reflects in a better way the multi-stage nature of the programme and takes into account the imprecision of information as one of the components of the overall programme uncertainty. Two different strategies are compared: “Baseline” corresponding to a relatively moderate pace of fusion research, development, demonstration and deployment activities vs. “Accelerated” strategy, which assumes a rapid demonstration and massive deployment of fusion. The conclusions are drawn from the model calculations regarding the strategic value of fusion energy R&D and the advantages of accelerated development path. 相似文献
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Climate change poses huge challenges to the sustainable development of human society. As a major CO2 emission source, decarbonization of power sector is fundamental for CO2 emission abatement. Therefore, considering the “carbon lock-in” effects, it’s critical to formulate an appropriate roadmap for low-carbon generation technologies. In this paper, key low-carbon technology solutions are firstly identified according to their developing prospects and the fundamental realities of China’s power sector. Then, costs, reduction effects and potentials for the key technology options are evaluated. On this basis, typical scenarios are selected and a scenario set is established which identifies and incorporates the key low carbon factors, and a multi-scenario analysis is implemented to China’s power sector based on a comprehensive power mix planning model. Then, contributions of CO2 reduction among the key technology solutions are revealed. Prospect for CO2 emission reduction is discussed, which informs the possible emission trajectories towards 2030. Finally, low-carbon technology roadmaps under specific scenarios are elaborated, which implies corresponding optimal evolution of power generation mix. 相似文献
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Owing to the expiration of the national 10-year period plan and the establishment of an efficient energy and resource technology R&D system, the Korean government needs to make a strategic long-term national energy and resource technology R&D plan (NERP) to cope with forthcoming 10-year period. A new NERP aims to improve the energy intensity, reduce the emissions of greenhouse gas within the United Nations framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC), and contribute to the construction of an advanced economic system. We determine the priorities in technology development for the energy efficiency and greenhouse gas control plans (EGCP), which are parts of a new NERP, by using the AHP approach for the first time. We suggest a scientific procedure to determine the priorities in technology development by using AHP. 相似文献
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It is now widely recognized that technological change will play a substantial role in reducing GHG emissions without compromising economic growth; hence, any better understanding of the process of technological innovation is likely to increase our knowledge of mitigation possibilities and costs. This paper explores how international knowledge flows affect the dynamics of the domestic R&D sector and the main economic and environmental variables. The analysis is performed using WITCH, a dynamic regional model of the world economy, in which energy-related technological change is endogenous. The focus is on disembodied energy R&D international spillovers. The knowledge pool from which regions draw foreign ideas differs between High Income and Low Income countries. Absorption capacity is also endogenous in the model. The basic questions are as follows. Do knowledge spillovers enhance energy-related technological innovation in different regions of the world? Does the speed of innovation increase? Or do free-riding incentives prevail and international spillovers crowd out domestic R&D efforts? What is the role of domestic absorption capacity and of policies designed to enhance it? Do greenhouse gas stabilization costs drop in the presence of international technological spillovers? The new specification of the WITCH model presented in this paper enables us to answer these questions. Our analysis shows that international knowledge spillovers tend to increase free-riding incentives and decrease the investments in energy R&D. The strongest cuts in energy R&D investments are recorded among High Income countries, where international knowledge flows crowd out domestic R&D efforts. The overall domestic pool of knowledge, and thus total net GHG stabilization costs, remain largely unaffected. International spillovers, however, are also an important policy channel. We therefore analyze the implication of a policy-mix in which climate policy is combined with a technology policy designed to enhance absorption capacity in Low Income countries. Significant positive impacts on the costs of stabilizing GHG concentrations are singled out. Finally, a sensitivity analysis shows that High Income countries are more responsive than Low Income countries to changes in the parameters. Additional empirical research efforts should thus be focused on the former. 相似文献
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The wider industrial impact of energy R&D programmes is generally misunderstood, with the result that their strategic importance is nowadays seriously underestimated. This paper indicates the important positive effects that energy R&D can have for more general aspects of industrial productivity and competitivity, and illustrates this using examples drawn from the European Community Energy R&D Programmes. 相似文献
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The idea to use the sun of the Sahara for European energy needs is simple to conceive, but not so simple to implement. This article reviews one tool in the arsenal of methods to come nearer to that goal—virtual trading using flexibility mechanisms. Flexibility mechanisms are established under the Kyoto Protocol and available in EU legislation. But restrictions exist and market forces, mostly generated by national emissions reduction obligations under climate policy, do not necessarily act in favor of renewable energy imports into Europe. The paper assesses the current situation, in view of EU member states' recently published positions on the use of flexibility mechanisms for cross-border trade. 相似文献
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Only recently have economists considered the effect of induced innovation in climate policy models. One reason is that, until recently, empirical evidence of the magnitude of such effects was unavailable. Drawing on my experiences with empirical studies on innovation and from modeling the climate change problem, in this paper, I present key lessons from the empirical literature on innovation and environmental policy, and discuss how much of the variation in results found in the modeling literature can be explained by differences in implementing (or failing to implement) these lessons into climate models. The paper concludes with a discussion of future research needs, focusing on a framework for improving the modeling of technology diffusion in climate change models. 相似文献
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The issue of the productivity slowdown of the 1970s and 1980s has received considerable analysis in the literature. However, the issue of the impact of energy on productivity is still debated. This study contributes to the debate, with the hope that some sight could be provided through disaggregating the factor input energy into two components; a petroleum component and a non-petroleum component. By analysing labour productivity growth, total factor productivity growth and labour intensity ratios, the disaggregated energy component can be viewed as a major influence in explaining the productivity decline. 相似文献
13.
Wietze Lise Vincent Linderhof Onno Kuik Claudia Kemfert Robert Östling Thomas Heinzow 《Energy Policy》2006
This paper develops a static computational game theoretic model. Illustrative results for the liberalising European electricity market are given to demonstrate the type of economic and environmental results that can be generated with the model. The model is empirically calibrated to eight Northwestern European countries, namely Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden. Different market structures are compared, depending on the ability of firms to exercise market power, ranging from perfect competition without market power to strategic competition where large firms exercise market power. In addition, a market power reduction policy is studied where the near-monopolies in France and Belgium are demerged into smaller firms. To analyse environmental impacts, a fixed greenhouse gas emission reduction target is introduced under different market structures. The results indicate that the effects of liberalisation depend on the resulting market structure, but that a reduction in market power of large producers may be beneficial for both the consumer (i.e. lower prices) and the environment (i.e. lower greenhouse gas permit price and lower acidifying and smog emissions). 相似文献
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In theory, In-Home Displays (IHDs) can revolutionize the way utilities communicate information to customers because they can induce changes in customer behavior even when they are not accompanied by a change in electric prices or rebates for purchasing efficient equipment. IHDs provide consumers with direct feedback—real-time information on energy consumption and costs—and turn a once opaque and static electric bill into a transparent, dynamic, and controllable process. However, to what extent do consumers actually respond to the direct feedback provided by IHDs? 相似文献
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This paper investigates the impact of the economic recession on CO2 emissions in the European power sector, during the years 2008 and 2009. Three main determinants of the power sector’s emissions are identified: the demand for electricity, the CO2 price, and fuel prices. A counterfactual scenario has been set up for each of these, i.e., what these parameters would have been if not affected by the recession. A simulation model of the European power sector is then employed, comparing a historical reference simulation (taking the parameters as actually occurred) with the counterfactual scenarios. The lower electricity demand (due to the recession) is shown to have by far the largest impact, accounting for an emission reduction of about 175 Mton. The lower CO2 price (due to the recession) resulted in an increase in emissions by about 30 Mton. The impact of fuel prices is more difficult to retrieve; an indicative reduction of about 17 Mton is obtained, mainly as a consequence of the low gas prices in 2009. The simulated combined impact of the parameters results in an emission reduction of about 150 Mton in the European power sector over the years 2008 and 2009 as a consequence of the recession. 相似文献
16.
Mankind is facing an escalating threat of global warming and there is increasing evidence that this is due to human activity and increased emissions of carbon dioxide. Converting from vapour compression chillers to absorption chillers in a combined heat and power (CHP) system is a measure towards sustainability as electricity consumption is replaced with electricity generation. This electricity produced in Swedish CHP-system will substitute marginally produced electricity and as result lower global emissions of carbon dioxide. The use of absorption chillers is limited in Sweden but the conditions are in fact most favourable. Rising demand of cooling and increasing electricity prices in combination with a surplus of heat during the summer in CHP system makes heat driven cooling extremely interesting in Sweden. In this paper we analyse the most cost-effective technology for cooling by comparing vapour compression chillers with heat driven absorption cooling for a local energy utility with a district cooling network and for industries in a Swedish municipality with CHP. Whilst this case is necessarily local in scope, the results have global relevance showing that when considering higher European electricity prices, and when natural gas is introduced, absorption cooling is the most cost-effective solution for both industries and for the energy supplier. This will result in a resource effective energy system with a possibility to reduce global emissions of CO2 with 80%, a 300% lower system cost, and a 170% reduction of the cost of producing cooling due to revenues from electricity production. The results also show that, with these prerequisites, a decrease in COP of the absorption chillers will not have a negative impact on the cost-effectiveness of the system, due to increased electricity production. 相似文献
17.
Potential impact of (CET) carbon emissions trading on China’s power sector: A perspective from different allowance allocation options 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In Copenhagen climate conference China government promised that China would cut down carbon intensity 40–45% from 2005 by 2020. CET (carbon emissions trading) is an effective tool to reduce emissions. But because CET is not fully implemented in China up to now, how to design it and its potential impact are unknown to us. This paper studies the potential impact of introduction of CET on China’s power sector and discusses the impact of different allocation options of allowances. Agent-based modeling is one appealing new methodology that has the potential to overcome some shortcomings of traditional methods. We establish an agent-based model, CETICEM (CET Introduced China Electricity Market), of introduction of CET to China. In CETICEM, six types of agents and two markets are modeled. We find that: (1) CET internalizes environment cost; increases the average electricity price by 12%; and transfers carbon price volatility to the electricity market, increasing electricity price volatility by 4%. (2) CET influences the relative cost of different power generation technologies through the carbon price, significantly increasing the proportion of environmentally friendly technologies; expensive solar power generation in particular develops significantly, with final proportion increasing by 14%. (3) Emission-based allocation brings about both higher electricity and carbon prices than by output-based allocation which encourages producers to be environmentally friendly. Therefore, output-based allocation would be more conducive to reducing emissions in the Chinese power sector. 相似文献
18.
Combined heat and power (CHP) has been identified by the EU administration as an important means of reducing CO2-emissions and increasing the energy efficiency. In Sweden, only about one third of the demand for district heat (DH) is supplied from CHP. This share could be significantly larger if the profitability of CHP generation increased. The objective of this study was to analyse the extent to which the profitability for investments in new CHP plants in the Swedish DH sector have changed thanks to the recently implemented trading schemes for green certificates (TGCs) and CO2 emissions (TEPs). The analysis was carried out using a simulation model of the Swedish DH sector in which the profitability of CHP investments for all DH systems, with and without the two trading schemes applied, is compared. In addition, a comparison was made of the changes in CHP generation, CO2 emissions, and operation costs if investments are made in the CHP plant shown to be most profitable in each system according to the model. The study shows that the profitability of investments in CHP plants increased significantly with the introductions of TGC and TEP schemes. If all DH utilities also undertook their most profitable CHP investments, the results indicate a major increase in power generation which, in turn, would reduce the CO2 emissions from the European power sector by up to 13 Mton/year, assuming that coal condensing power is displaced. 相似文献
19.
The Global MARKAL-Model (GMM), a multi-regional “bottom-up” partial equilibrium model of the global energy system with endogenous technological learning, is used to address impacts of internalisation of external costs from power production. This modelling approach imposes additional charges on electricity generation, which reflect the costs of environmental and health damages from local pollutants (SO2, NOx) and climate change, wastes, occupational health, risk of accidents, noise and other burdens. Technologies allowing abatement of pollutants emitted from power plants are rapidly introduced into the energy system, for example, desulphurisation, NOx removal, and CO2 scrubbers. The modelling results indicate substantial changes in the electricity production system in favour of natural gas combined cycle, nuclear power and renewables induced by internalisation of external costs and also efficiency loss due to the use of scrubbers. Structural changes and fuel switching in the electricity sector result in significant reduction of emissions of both local pollution and CO2 over the modelled time period. Strong decarbonisation impact of internalising local externalities suggests that ancillary benefits can be expected from policies directly addressing other issues then CO2 mitigation. Finally, the detailed analysis of the total generation cost of different technologies points out that inclusion of external cost in the price of electricity increases competitiveness of non-fossil generation sources and fossil power plants with emission control. 相似文献