加快非常规油气矿物资源开发 增强国内油气供应基础

文章分析认为,当前世界能源生产与消费面临两个重大变革,一是能源消费向多元化方向发展；二是石油生产发生结构性变化,将转向常规与非常规油气并重的时代。持续的高油价将加快这种转化的步伐。我国需要调整石油天然气发展战略和投资战略,把加快非常规油气矿物资源的开发,提高到保持石油工业可持续发展的战略地位上来。为此,需要利用市场机制,制订长期、有效的宏观调控政策,加强国际合作,为非常规油气矿物资源的尽快开发利用创造条件。     

Algae as a sustainable energy source for biofuel production in Iran: A case study

Algae can be converted directly into energy, such as biodiesel, bioethanol and biomethanol and therefore can be a source of renewable energy. There is a growing interest for biodiesel production from algae because of its higher yield non-edible oil production and its fast growth that does not compete for land with food production. About 50% of algae weight is oil that this lipid oil can be used to make biodiesel. Algae is capable of yielding 30 times more oil per acre than the crops currently used in biodiesel production. Processes for biodiesel production from algae-oil are similar to food and non-food crops derived biodiesel processes. Because of disadvantages of fossil fuels, renewable energy sources are getting importance for sustainable energy development and environmental protection. Among the renewable sources, Iran has high biofuel energy potential. The Iranian government is considerable attention to the utilization of renewable energy, especially biofuels. Iran has enough land in order to algae cultivation that does not compete with food production. A salt lake (Lake Orumieh) in Iran's West Azarbaijan province, Maharlu salt lake in Iran's Fars province, Qom salt lake in Iran's Qom province have given rise to a new species of algae for biofuel. Algae are frequent in the shallow-marine lime stones in Zagros Mountains in north of Fars province. Greenish blooms of algae can be seen in the Persian Gulf and Caspian Sea, south and north of Iran respectively. This study presents a brief introduction to the resource, status and prospect of algae as a sustainable energy source for biodiesel production in Iran. The main advantages of using algae for biodiesel production in Iran are described.     

Iran's oil development scenarios by 2025

Energy resources in Iran consist of the fourth largest oil reserves and the second largest natural gas reserves in the world. At present, due to political reasons, the investment trend does not go over well. Based on the Fifth Development Strategy, Iran needs $200 billion of investment in the country's first industry (i.e. oil), and given the objectives of the perspective document, the country needs more than $500 billion investment during the next 15 years. This paper examined Iran's energy status. Afterwards, oil future scenarios which developed by Research center of Iranian parliament, have been analyzed. Then four scenarios that express different modes of production and consumption are developed, namely: Thunder, Behemoth, Snowman, and Poor Addict. Finally, a comprehensive analysis for achieving the secure and sustainable future on the geopolitical, Geo-economic and Geo-cultural situation is presented.     

Turkey's Renewable Energy Facilities in the Near Future

In this work, renewable energy facilities of Turkey were investigated. Electricity is mainly produced by thermal power plants, consuming coal, lignite, natural gas, fuel oil and geothermal energy, and hydro power plants in Turkey. Turkey has no large oil and gas reserves. The main indigenous energy resources are lignite, hydro and biomass. Turkey has to adopt new, long-term energy strategies to reduce the share of fossil fuels in primary energy consumption. For these reasons, the development and use of renewable energy sources and technologies are increasingly becoming vital for sustainable economic development of Turkey. The most significant developments in renewable production are observed hydropower and geothermal energy production. Renewable electricity facilities mainly include electricity from biomass, hydropower, geothermal, and wind and solar energy sources. Biomass cogeneration is a promising method for production bioelectricity.     

Analysis of Iran's crude oil export future capacity

The paper analyzes Iran's oil export capacity and the factors affecting it. First, the local energy demand is reviewed and crude oil, with 5.7% annual growth rate, is introduced as a major source to respond to the increasing domestic energy demand. Then, the national plans for controlling the local demand and replacing oil with other types of energy carriers are reviewed to create a view over the future of local demand for crude oil in Iran. In the next step, crude oil production and exploration situation in Iran are investigated and the required increase in production to maintain the present level of export is calculated. By estimating the average capital expenditures for adding each barrel of new capacity to Iran's daily oil production, the necessary annual investment to compensate the production drop and domestic consumption growth for maintaining the export is introduced. Then, the future of oil export in Iran is predicted in three optimistic, reference, and pessimistic scenarios on the basis of the country's ability in managing the financial resources in upstream oil industry. Finally, domestic and foreign investment and the history of buyback contracts and their undeniable role in development of Iranian oil and gas projects are discussed.     

Linseed oil as a potential resource for bio-diesel: A review

The energy crisis contributed to the development of bio-diesel production. Petroleum, charcoal and natural gas sources are limited and will be exhausted by the next century. Thus, looking for alternative source of energy is of vital importance Vegetable oils are a renewable and potentially inexhaustible source of energy with an energetic content close to diesel fuel. In recent years, bio-diesel has become more attractive as an alternative fuels for diesel engine because of its environmental benefits and it is made from renewable resource. Since edible oil demand is higher than its domestic production; there is no possibility of diverting this oil for production of bio-diesel in India. Being a tropical country, India is rich in forest resources having a wide range of trees, which yield a significant quantity of oilseeds. India is importing crude petroleum & petroleum products from Gulf countries. Indian scientists searched for an alternate to diesel fuel to preserve global environment and to withstand economical crisis. This review paper describes the production of linseed oil, its properties, composition and future potential for bio-diesel. Linseed plant contains high amount of oil in its seeds which can be converted to bio-diesel. Fatty acid compositions of linseed reported in literature are provided in this review. In this study the properties of methyl ester of linseed oil are compared with the properties of fossil diesel. The objective of this review is to give an update on the linseed plant, the production of bio-diesel from the linseed oil and research attempts to improve the technology of converting linseed oil to bio-diesel and the fuel properties of linseed bio-diesel. The technological methods that can be used to produce bio-diesel are presented together with their advantage and disadvantages. Many other areas that need to be researched on linseed oil are pointed out in this review.     

世界能源地缘政治格局与中国面临的挑战

基于对全球能源资源分布和生产消费格局的探讨,本文提出全球油气资源、生产与油气产品消费的错位,是能源地缘政治基本特征,并认为能源供应心脏地带、内需求月型地带、外需求地带,以及将这些国家联系在一起的能源战略枢纽国家,共同构成了当今的世界能源地缘政治版图。探讨了美国、俄罗斯、日本、印度和伊朗等国的能源地缘政治战略,并剖析了中国能源地缘政治的特征。本文从油气出口国、进口国和运输通道三个方面剖析了中国能源地缘政治面临的挑战。     

Renewable energy sources in the Egyptian electricity market: A review

This review paper presents an appraisal of renewable energy RE options in Egypt. An appraisal review of different REs is presented. The study shows that electric energy produced from REs in Egypt are very poor compared with other energy sources. The utilization of the renewable energies can also be a good opportunity to fight the desertification and dryness in Egypt which is about 60% of Egypt territory. The rapid growth of energy production and consumption is strongly affecting and being affected by the Egyptian economy in many aspects. It is evident that energy will continue to play an important role in the development of Egypt's economy in coming years. The total installed electricity generating capacity had reached around 22025 MW with a generating capacity reached 22605 MW at the end of 2007. Hydropower and coal has no significant potential increase. During the period 1981/82-2004/05 electricity generation has increased by 500% from nearly 22 TWh for the year 1981/1982 to 108.4 TWh in the year 2004/2005 at an average annual growth rate of 6.9%. Consequently, oil and gas consumed by the electricity sector has jumped during the same period from around 3.7 MTOE to nearly 21 MTOE. The planned installed capacity for the year 2011/2012 is 28813 MW and the required fuel (oil and gas) for the electricity sector is estimated to reach about 29 MTOE by the same year. The renewable energy strategy targets to supply 3% of the electricity production from renewable resources by the year 2010. Electrical Coverage Electrical energy has been provided for around 99.3% of Egypt's population, representing a positive sign for the welfare of the Egyptian citizen due to electricity relation to all development components in all walks of life. The article discusses perspectives of wind energy in Egypt with projections to generate ∼ 3.5 GWe by 2022, representing ∼9% of the total installed power at that time (40.2 GW). Total renewables (hydro + wind + solar) are expected to provide ∼7.4 GWe by 2022 representing ∼ 19% of the total installed power. Such a share would reduce dependence on depleting oil and gas resources, and hence improve country's sustainable development.     

Status and potentials of tidal in-stream energy resources in the southern coasts of Iran: A case study

Interest in renewable energy in Iran has increased continually over the past decade. Iran has an excellent hydro power energy resource and the use of this resource will assist in the development of a sustainable energy future. Iran – with its many narrow channels and significant tidal range – might be expected to have considerable potential for tidal current power generation. The Khowr-e Musa Bay is a large coastal embayment on the south-western coast of Iran in which the peak tidal currents exceed 2 m/s. It is therefore a promising site for tidal stream power. The assessment employed a statistical method, for estimating tidal current energy resource at the selected site, during one lunar month (since 6 November 1996 to 7 December 1996). With the introduction of constraints and limitations, the technical, practical, accessible and viable tidal current energy resources were obtained.     

洁净煤技术及其在我国能源消费结构调整中的作用

通过分析我国现行能源生产与消费现状,可发现我国煤炭资源丰富,但煤炭作为终端能源的消费比例过高,燃煤质量普遍低下,燃煤技术普遍落后,引起大气和地面严重污染,已在很大程度上影响和制约了国民经济的发展;随着国民经济的发展。近些年我国石油消费量不断增加,石油供需矛盾日益突出,进口依存度已达 30％,外汇支付压力越来越大,石油安全问题已涉及国家能源安全;天然气从长远看也满足不了需求。因此,我国能源发展应立足于国内资源,以煤炭为基础,多元化发展高效、清洁能源。洁净煤技术可有效提高煤炭效率,减少粉尘和 SO2污染,有利于调整产业结构和技术结构,有利于国民经济的可持续发展。     

Environmental cost of energy consumption and biodiesel as a solution (case study: Iran)

ABSTRACT

More than 8.5 million people live in Tehran, the capital of Iran, with 111 pollutant days during 2016. Based on Iranian 2016 energy balance sheet, more than 76% of SPM was emitted by gas oil combustion. To determine the main pollutant fuel-consuming sector, the amount of gas oil consumption and SPM production are investigated. Therefore, the transportation and power plant sectors are determined as the main gas oil users with 51.1% and 30.5% of its total consumption. Next, the reduced external cost of implementing biodiesel instead of gas oil for mobile and fixed sources is deliberated. Finally, by comparing the external cost of gas oil consumption and Iran's gross domestic production in 2016, it is revealed that by replacing gas oil with biofuels, 3.935 billion dollars (0.95% of gross domestic production of Iran in 2016) can be reduced.     

Oil revenue shocks and government spending behavior in Iran

Oil revenues play an important role in the political economy of Iran. On average, 60% of the Iranian government revenues and 90% of export revenues originate from oil and gas resources. Current international sanctions on Iran have mainly targeted the oil production capacity of Iran and its exports to the global markets. In this study, we analyze the dynamic effects of oil shocks on different categories of the Iranian government expenditures from 1959 to 2007, using impulse response functions (IRF) and variance decomposition analysis (VDC) techniques. The main results show that Iran's military and security expenditures significantly respond to a shock in oil revenues (or oil prices), while social spending components do not show significant reactions to such shocks.     

宁夏风力发电前景分析

能源是人类赖以生存的物质基础,是国民经济的基本支撑。中国的能源供应主要依靠煤炭、石油和天然气等化石能源,尤其是宁夏的能源供应主要依靠煤炭,但是化石能源资源的有限性及其开发利用过程对生态环境造成的巨大影响,严重制约经济社会的可持续发展。叙述了宁夏风能资源的现状,分析了风力发电的前景。     

世界页岩气资源现状研究

页岩气的勘探开发引起国际社会的高度关注,其资源分布与资源潜力成为研究的热点。页岩气资源主要分布于北美、中亚、中国、中东、北非和非洲南部等国家和地区。据EIA最新的评价结果,全球页岩油和页岩气技术可采资源量分别为473×108t和207×1012m3,分别占油气资源总量的10%和32%。中国页岩气和页岩油技术可采资源量分别为31.6×1012m3和44.1×108t,分别居世界首位和第三位。世界页岩气技术可采资源量排名第二位、第三位的国家分别是阿根廷和阿尔及利亚,资源量分别为22.71×1012m3和20.02×1012m3。俄罗斯拥有102.19×108t页岩油技术可采资源量,居世界首位,阿根廷、利比亚、委内瑞拉和墨西哥等国也拥有丰富的页岩油资源。非常规油气已成为全球油气供应的重要组成部分,非常规油气产量占油气总产量的比例已超过10%。非常规油气勘探开发技术取得的成果包括连续型油气聚集理论、水平井规模压裂技术、平台式"工厂化"开发模式。将多学科的先进技术综合应用到勘探领域,是目前页岩油气勘探技术的发展方向。以美国为首的西方发达国家将继续引领全球页岩气勘探开发技术的潮流。     

A review on energy scenario and sustainable energy in Indonesia

The global energy consumption is likely to grow faster than the population growth. The fuel consumption was growing from 6630 million tons of oil equivalents (Mtoe) in 1980 to 11,163 Mtoe in 2009. This projected consumption will increase 1.5% per year until 2030 and reach 16,900 Mtoe and the main drivers of this growth are mostly developing countries in Asia. Indonesia is one of the developing countries and energy supply is an important factor for all-around development. The country's energy consumption still depends on non-renewable energy such as crude oil, coal and natural gas as sources of energy. Utilization of fossil fuel continuously contributes to huge amount of greenhouse gases emission that leads to climate change. Facing such an unfavorable situation, the government of Indonesia prioritizes on energy supply securities by diversification of energy resources. The energy mixes in Indonesia based on five main resources; these are crude oil, natural gas, coal, hydropower, and renewable energy. Although the country encourages utilizing renewable energy, the contribution is only around 3%. Considering natural condition and geography, this country is blessed with great potential of renewable energy such as solar energy, wind energy, micro hydro and biomass energy. Noting the potential of renewable and sustainable energy resources in the country, the government must pay more attention on how to utilize it. Many efforts have been done to promote renewable energy such as to create energy policy and regulations, yet it still did not give any satisfactory result. Government, non-government agencies and the public should take a more proactive step to promote and use renewable energy in order to achieve the secure and environmentally sustainable energy resources.     

Prospects for coal gasification in Pakistan

Pakistan is currently facing serious energy supply problems. Energy demand has been increasing by about 8% per year during the last 12yr and this trend is likely to continue. Since 1980–1981 the oil import bill has been consuming more than 50% of yearly export earning. As there is not much scope for a sizeable increase in the domestic supply of gas, oil, or hydroelectric power, increasing the use of domestic coal is necessary to avoid excessive dependence on imported energy. Coal gasification to produce substitute natural gas (SNG) is not economical at present coal production costs, due to the low cost of indigenous gas and subsidized furnace oil and kerosene and the high SNG production costs from the technology available at present. If domestic prices of gas and liquid fuels are increased to the level of current international oil prices and developments in coal gasification technologies can bring about expected reductions in capital costs and improvements in efficiency, coal gasification may become economical in Pakistan. It is estimated that indigenous coal resources can potentially supply 3–6 million TCE/yr of SNG by 2000—about 10–20% of the substitutable fossil fuels demand for that year—along with meeting about 9% of the electricity demand.     

Forecasting future oil demand in Iran using GSA (Gravitational Search Algorithm)

Growing energy demand of the world, made the major oil and gas exporting countries to have critical role in the energy supply. The geostrategic situation of Iran and its access to the huge hydrocarbon resources placed the country among important areas and resulted in the investment development of oil and gas industry.In this study, a novel approach for oil consumption modeling is presented. Three demand estimation models are developed to forecast oil consumption based on socio-economic indicators using GSA (Gravitational Search Algorithm). In first model (PGIE) oil consumption is estimated based on population, GDP, import and export. In second model (PGML) population, GDP, export minus import, and number of LDVs (light-duty vehicles) are used to forecast oil consumption and in third one (PGMH) population, GDP, export minus import, and number of HDVs (heavy-duty vehicles) are used to estimate oil consumption. Linear and non-linear forms of equations are developed for each model.In order to show the accuracy of the algorithm, a comparison is made with the GA (Genetic Algorithm) and PSO (Particle Swarm Optimization) estimation models which are developed for the same problem. Oil demand in Iran is forecasted up to year 2030.     

我国炼油工业可持续发展的对策思考

我国已成为世界第二大炼油国,2008年炼油能力达到4.38×108t/a。通过结构调整,炼油装置平均规模越来越大;通过自主开发,我国已全面掌握原油加工技术,能自主建设年加工能力千万吨级的大型炼厂。据预测,到2020年我国汽煤柴油的需求量将达到3.5×108~3.9×108t,强劲的市场需求为中国炼油工业提供了难得的发展机遇。但同时我国炼油工业也面临着石油资源不足,原油品质呈现重质化、劣质化趋势,环保法规日益严格,石油产品质量亟待升级,二氧化碳减排压力大等制约因素。为了实现我国炼油工业的可持续发展,应努力优化炼油加工总流程,建设加氢型炼厂,充分合理地利用石油资源;调整油化一体化的发展思路,低碳烯烃可以用煤或天然气为原料进行生产,石油加工应以运输燃料收率最大化为目标,并提高柴油在运输燃料中的比例;发挥资源优势,适度有序发展煤制油、煤化工,合理安排煤制油和甲醇制烯烃、甲醇制丙烯项目;生产运输燃料是生物质大规模利用的最佳方式,应重视技术的集成创新,发展生物燃料产业,同时加强生物油藻的研究开发;减少能源使用是减排CO2最重要、最现实的措施,要大力推进技术创新,实现炼油过程的节能降耗,要推进二氧化碳的捕集、转化、储存(CCCS)技术的研发。     

Wind energy status of Iran: Evaluating Iran's technological capability in manufacturing wind turbines

Iran, as a developing country, will be confronted with a significant increase in electricity demand in future years. Being a petroleum producing country has resulted in extreme subsidies for energy production from fossilized resources such as oil and gas. This issue is one of the most important factors regarding underdevelopment of renewable energies in Iran. Expansive use of fossil resources in providing the necessary energy has resulted in Iran being among the 20 countries that have a share in the 75% spread of greenhouse gases. This issue has resulted in greater attention on behalf of the energy sectors policy makers regarding renewable energies, especially wind. Awareness regarding the current condition of each system is the first step for optimum policy making. On this basis, analyzing Iran's wind conditions and assessing its technological capabilities is considered a pre-requisite for the wind sectors policy making. This paper aims at studying Iran's wind energy status in the form of available capacities, power production, wind power plant characteristics, principal agents and existing protective laws. Also, the main focus of this paper is on evaluating Iran's potential and effective technological capabilities for producing the main parts of wind turbines in different sizes. In order to fulfill this task, sector-level technological capabilities are defined. Then by analyzing active organizations in this field, Iran's capability level will be determined and by comparing it with the ideal conditions, Iran's technological gaps will be identified. The reasons for the creation of such shortcomings will also be introduced from different aspects in the form of the Atlas model. Finally, Iran's potential capabilities in resolving technological shortcomings will be identified.     

The ECOS 2009 World Energy Panel: An introduction to the Panel and to the present (2009) situation in sustainable energy development

This paper introduces the ECOS 2009 conference World Energy Panel, and presents the opening talk that briefly surveys the present (2009) situation in sustainable energy development. Recent (2008) estimates and forecasts of the oil, gas, coal resources and their reserve/production ratio, nuclear and renewable energy potential, and energy uses are surveyed. A brief discussion of the status, sustainability (economic, environmental and social impact), and prospects of fossil, nuclear and renewable energy use, and of power generation (including hydrogen, fuel cells, micro-power systems, and the futuristic concept of generating power in space for terrestrial use), is presented. Comments about energy use in general, with more detailed focus on insufficiently considered areas of transportation and buildings are brought up. Ways to resolve the problem of the availability, cost, and sustainability of energy resources alongside the rapidly rising demand are discussed. The author’s view of the promising energy R&D areas, their potential, foreseen improvements and their time scale, and last year’s trends in government funding are presented.