浅析如何做好公路工程应急救援保障

随着公路工程建设的快速发展，自然灾害及人员和财产的损失不断上升，构建重大事故应急救援管理体系，完善应急救援预案，组织及时有效的救援行动，已成为抵御事故风险和控制灾害蔓延、降低危害后果的关键手段，本文结合武罐高速公路安全生产管理经验，浅谈如何做好公路工程应急救援保障工作。     

冷藏库应建立“事故应急处理预案”

随着我国冷藏库数量的不断增加和它在易腐食品流通中的重要地位，冷库的安全生产管理越来越受到重视，冷库管理者应针对可能突发的重大事故，制订应急处理预案，以减小事故所造成的损失。本文就建立“事故应急处理预案”的必要性，事故的预防工作，编制“事故应急处理手册”，发生重大事故的处理程序及事故处理后应妥善做好的有关工作分别作了叙述。     

人员应急疏散随机服务系统的网络流模型研究

重大事故发生时,应急疏散行动过程中,疏散空间网络的各节点,都有可能出现排队等待疏散服务的现象,甚至可能会引起互相拥挤,造成恐慌及群集事故的发生。应急疏散空间的各种不同类型应急疏散排队系统,其服务性能主要取决于服务系统的极限容量、疏散服务能力的随机性等。本首先对应急疏散空间排队疏散服务系统的基本变量进行定义和讨论。进而建立关于人员应急疏散性状的数学模型。并以单元疏散空间为例,进行应急疏散空间排队网络分析法的计算机模拟,与理想疏散状态下模拟结果进行对比分析,分析应急疏散系统的疏散性和群集滞留现象。其研究成果必将促进城市减灾工程及安全科学理论体系的进一步发展和完善。     

浅谈各级监测站如何做好突发性污染事故应急监测

文章阐述了应急监测在污染事故中的关键作用，突发性污染事故应急监测主要内容，突发性污染事故的应急处置原则，以及各级监测站如何做好突发性污染事故应急监测。力求加大各级监测站应急监测能力，为突发性环境污染事故的应急决策提供依据并对应急救援起到技术支持作用。     

氟化氢气体污染事故的应急监测和处置——以洪江区“6.7”事故为个案的分析

突发性大气污染事故危害大,需要环境监测工作者对突发性环境污染事故实施快速有效的应急监测,及时了解、掌握污染物质的种类、浓度分布、影响范围及发展态势,为政府应急处置决策提供技术支撑。文章叙述了洪江区"6.7"氟化氢气体污染事故的应急监测和处置方法,分析了事故案例中应急监测及处置工作的经验教训,提出了有效控制应急污染的处置对策。     

基于MATLAB技术的LPG储罐重大事故动态模拟评价系统开发与应用

为提高人们对LPG储罐重大事故预测、预防水平和抗灾害能力,根据LPG储罐泄漏、扩散、着火、爆炸等事故的发生和发展,建立一套LPG储罐重大事故动态模拟评价方法,在此基础上进行软件系统的功能、模块和数据设计,应用VC与MATLAB可视化面向对象接口技术实现事故后果模拟评价及特征参数随时间、距离变化过程的可视化。该软件能够脱离MATLAB环境运行,实现了评价结果通过图形直观动态显示,可预测特定位置的破坏情况,评价事故影响范围和危害程度。工程应用表明,该评价系统软件用于LPG储罐重大事故的安全评价是可行的,并可用于其他具有着火和爆炸危险性、毒性的重气或液化气体的生产和贮存企业的安全评价。     

农产品物流质量安全应急决策支持系统构建

针对农产品物流安全的特点,围绕运输车辆、农产品腐烂等突发事故,集成Internet GIS、无线数据传输、无线通讯等信息化技术,构建了分布式应急决策支持系统(DDSS)。最后基于GPS/GIS/GSM(3G)技术,以车辆调度为例阐述了典型功能区的远程数据采集与决策管理实现。     

污染气流扩散三维场景的实时模拟

在环境污染应急系统中,实时模拟污染气流扩散场景是制定污染事故应急措施的关键.为兼顾模拟的实时性和逼真性,利用离散化的思想,提出了一种基于粒子系统的简单快捷的数学建模方法,实现了对污染气体排放现象的建模,并在此基础上设计了一个污染气流的生成算法.最后给出了污染气流扩散的动态模拟效果图.     

基于GIS的地震火灾动态蔓延模拟

用惠更斯原理对震后火灾的动态蔓延过程进行了模拟,并开发了基于GIS的城市地震次生火灾动态蔓延模拟系统,该系统可以模拟单个 或者多个起火点的动态蔓延过程。研究结果可以定量地估计地震次生火灾对城市的危害,从而在最短时间内给救灾应急提供决策依据。     

浅谈矿井停电事故应急预案

在煤矿生产中,当发生电网大面积停电事故时,如何规范煤矿电网大面积停电事故的应急管理和应急响应,做好煤矿停电事故应急处置的组织协调,编制有针对性的煤矿大面积停电事故应急预案,保证停电事故发生时及时、迅速、有效地开展事故应急救援工作,加强对大面积停电事故的控制,及时采取有效措施,控制和减小停电事故的影响,提高处置突发停电事故的应变能力。     

高速行车状态下驾驶人应激反应能力研究

为减少驾驶人在高速公路行车时因应激反应失误而引发交通事故,基于动力定型理论,开发驾驶人应激反应训练系统并进行仿真实验研究。选用30名被试分别在4个高速公路中典型应激交通场景下进行,运用MP 150实时记录被试人员的心率参数,运用对数回归和相关性分析,研究应激反应能力与训练次数间的定量关系。结果表明:随着训练次数增加,驾驶人应激反应能力增强。驾驶人经过标准规定次数的训练,即可减缓应激状态下的心理紧张,提高应激反应准确性和速度。设计的系统及建立的训练次数标准,满足驾驶人应激反应能力训练需求,可增强驾驶人应激能力,减少此类交通事故发生。     

Use of CCTV to determine road accident factors in urban areas

This paper sets out to assess whether there is a potential use for images collected through the increasingly ubiquitous use of CCTV cameras in urban areas as a means of increasing understanding of the causes of road traffic accidents. Information on causation and contributory factors is essential as a means of understanding why accidents occurred and how the occurrence of similar events may be prevented in the future. CCTV records of accidents could provide an independent perspective on an accident and have the potential to increase both the quality and quantity of information available to the safety researcher.

This study focuses on an area of central Leeds in the UK and shows that an existing CCTV camera system used for urban traffic management reasons has the potential to record around a quarter of the accidents which occur in the area, based on patterns of past occurrence. Most city centres in the UK will have similar camera systems set-up. By the introduction of additional strategically placed cameras and replacement of existing cameras with ones dedicated to accident recording, this figure could be increased substantially.

The paper also considers how effective cameras and video records will be as a means of identifying contributory factor information once an accident is recorded. The contributory factor classification used by a recently introduced system in Britain is assessed in terms of how visible each of the factors is likely to be on video and their relative frequency of occurrence. It is concluded that CCTV has a high potential to provide corroborative evidence about many of the most commonly occurring factors, and to throw further light on accident causation.     

Chemical Accident Simulation Tool (CAST): A System for Assessing Consequences of Accidents in Chemical Process Industry

The development and validation of a new software named chemical accident simulation tool (CAST) is presented. CAST enables development of scenarios of different types of accidental fires and explosions that can occur in chemical process industry (CPI). CAST is also capable of assessing the likely consequences of such accidents in terms of the area impacted and the types of impacts. The distinguishing features of CAST are (a) it incorporates a larger set of established models than handled by existing packages to simulate a wider variety of accidents in CPI; (b) it is developed with an integrated mapping tool to display damage zones around accident center; this makes the application useful in decision making; and (c) it calculates the results in a fast and reliable manner. Due to these attributes, CAST has increased efficiency, better understanding of the accident scenarios, and better communication of results. Validation of the software has been done with published results which shows that the codes for calculating the impacts from accidents are correct.     

Differences in rural and urban driver-injury severities in accidents involving large-trucks: an exploratory analysis

This study explores the differences between urban and rural driver injuries (both passenger-vehicle and large-truck driver injuries) in accidents that involve large trucks (in excess of 10,000 pounds). Using 4 years of California accident data, and considering four driver-injury severity categories (no injury, complaint of pain, visible injury, and severe/fatal injury), a multinomial logit analysis of the data was conducted. Significant differences with respect to various risk factors including driver, vehicle, environmental, road geometry and traffic characteristics were found to exist between urban and rural models. For example, in rural accidents involving tractor-trailer combinations, the probability of drivers' injuries being severe/fatal increased about 26% relative to accidents involving single-unit trucks. In urban areas, this same probability increased nearly 700%. In accidents where alcohol or drug use was identified as being the primary cause of the accident, the probability of severe/fatal injury increased roughly 250% percent in rural areas and nearly 800% in urban areas. While many of the same variables were found to be significant in both rural and urban models (although often with quite different impact), there were 13 variables that significantly influenced driver-injury severity in rural but not urban areas, and 17 variables that significantly influenced driver-injury severity in urban but not rural areas. We speculate that the significant differences between rural and urban injury severities may be at least partially attributable to the different perceptual, cognitive and response demands placed on drivers in rural versus urban areas.     

基于Pc-Crash的车-人事故再现*

提出基于Pc-Crash的车-人事故再现方法,即以Pc-Crash为仿真平台,构建事故现场及车、人多刚体模型,以车、人接触部位及人、车最终停止位置等事故信息为重要证据对事故进行仿真,并利用人体损伤等其他事故信息验证仿真结果的合理性,最后利用不确定性分析理论评估所得结果的不确定度。以一车-人碰撞事故为例,演示了该方法的步骤。案例再现分析中,事故信息都得到合理利用,并借助响应曲面法与蒙特卡罗方法获得了事故再现结果的分布。算例表明,利用该方法所得再现结果不仅更为客观,且能为事故鉴定提供更多有效信息。     

Characterization of pedestrian accidents and an examination of infrastructure measures to improve pedestrian safety in Israel

The high share of pedestrian fatalities in Israel provided the impetus for this study which looked for infrastructure solutions to improve pedestrian safety. First, a detailed analysis of pedestrian accidents in 2006-2007, with an emphasis on the infrastructure characteristics involved, was performed; it found that 75% of the fatalities and 95% of the injuries occurred in urban areas, the majority of cases occurring on road sections (not at junctions). About 80% of the accidents took place when a pedestrian crossed the road, the majority of them at non-crosswalk locations or at non-signalized crosswalks. International comparisons showed that the characteristics of fatal pedestrian accidents in Israel were similar to the average pedestrian accident in Europe in terms of accident location, time, and the demographic characteristics of the victims. A typology of pedestrian fatalities in Israel was built for the years 2003-2006; it demonstrated a high share of accidents at these locations: in Jewish or mixed-population towns-not at pedestrian crossings on urban street sections, and both at pedestrian crossings and not at pedestrian crossings at urban junctions; in Arab towns; and on dual-carriageway rural roads. Second, based on a literature study, a summary of about 60 pedestrian-safety-related measures was developed. Third, to diagnose the infrastructure characteristics and deficiencies associated with pedestrian accidents, detailed field studies were carried out at 95 urban locations. A major finding revealed that more than 80% of the sites with a high concentration of pedestrian-vehicle accidents in Israel were situated on arterial multi-lane streets belonging to city centers, where on a micro-level there were no indications of major deficiencies in the basic design elements of most sites. Finally, cross-checking of the safety problems identified and the infrastructure solutions available provided lists of measures recommended for application at various types of sites. It was concluded that in order to generate a significant change in the state of pedestrian injury in Israel, a move from spot treatment to a systemic treatment of the problem is required. A systemic inquiry and the transformation of the urban road network should be performed in order to diminish the areas of vehicle-pedestrian conflicts and to significantly reduce vehicle speeds in areas of pedestrian presence and activity.     

Multiple-vehicle traffic accidents in Hong Kong

‘Multiple-vehicle traffic accident’ refers to a crash between two or more moving objects. Unlike single-vehicle accidents, not all drivers involving in a multiple-vehicle accident are responsible for the occurrence of the event. Accordingly, variables such as road type, speed limit and number of vehicles involved in the accident are expected to play a much more important role in association with injury severity in multiple-vehicle accidents. To study the factors influencing injury severity of multiple-vehicle traffic accidents, a population-based study was conducted. The traffic accident data was obtained from the Traffic Accident Data System (TRADS), which was developed by the Transport Department, Police Force and Information Technology Services Department, Hong Kong. Multiple-vehicle traffic accidents (N = 10,630) occurring during the 2-year period 1999/2000 were considered. Potential risk factors such as district, human, vehicle, safety, environmental and site factors were examined. Categorizing injury severity into “fatal/serious” and “slight”, a stepwise logistic regression model was applied to the population data set. The district board, time of the accident, driver's gender, vehicle type, road type, speed limit and the number of vehicles involved are significant factors influencing the injury severity. Identification of risk factors for severe traffic accidents provides valuable information to help with new and improved road safety control measures.     

Comprehensive analysis of single- and multi-vehicle large truck at-fault crashes on rural and urban roadways in Alabama

The research described in this paper analyzed injury severities at a disaggregate level for single-vehicle (SV) and multi-vehicle (MV) large truck at-fault accidents for rural and urban locations in Alabama. Given the occurrence of a crash, four separate random parameter logit models of injury severity (with possible outcomes of major, minor, and possible or no injury) were estimated. The models identified different sets of factors that can lead to effective policy decisions aimed at reducing large truck-at-fault accidents for respective locations. The results of the study clearly indicated that there are differences between the influences of a variety of variables on the injury severities resulting from urban vs. rural SV and MV large truck at-fault accidents. The results showed that some variables were significant only in one type of accident model (SV or MV) but not in the other accident model. Again, some variables were found to be significant in one location (rural or urban) but not in other locations. The study also identified important factors that significantly impact the injury severity resulting from SV and MV large truck at-fault accidents in urban and rural locations based on the estimated values of average direct pseudo-elasticity. A careful study of the results of this study will help policy makers and transportation agencies identify location specific recommendations to increase safety awareness related to large truck involved accidents and to improve overall highway safety.     

Characteristics of rear-end accidents at signalized intersections using multiple logistic regression model

Multi-vehicle rear-end accidents constitute a substantial portion of the accidents occurring at signalized intersections. To examine the accident characteristics, this study utilized the 2001 Florida traffic accident data to investigate the accident propensity for different vehicle roles (striking or struck) that are involved in the accidents and identify the significant risk factors related to the traffic environment, the driver characteristics, and the vehicle types. The Quasi-induced exposure concept and the multiple logistic regression technique are used to perform this analysis. The results showed that seven road environment factors (number of lanes, divided/undivided highway, accident time, road surface condition, highway character, urban/rural, and speed limit), five factors related to striking role (vehicle type, driver age, alcohol/drug use, driver residence, and gender), and four factors related to struck role (vehicle type, driver age, driver residence, and gender) are significantly associated with the risk of rear-end accidents. Furthermore, the logistic regression technique confirmed several significant interaction effects between those risk factors.     

Predicting wet weather accidents

The development of a wet weather safety index, WWSI_e, is presented. WWSI_e is an empirical formulation based on prediction equations for wet accident rates. These equations were derived by multiple regression techniques from a survey of 68 highway segments in Texas. These segments covered a range of wet accident rates from zero to 40 accidents per year per mile. In general, much higher values of wet accident rates are observed in urban areas than in rural areas. Also, the sensitivity to pavement skid resistance is much higher in urban than in rural areas. The findings and developments reported warrant a restructuring of many state programs to reduce wet weather accidents. The Wet Weather Safety Index and associated equations represent a practical method of predicting wet accident rates as a function of traffic, road geometric, and pavements surface characteristics. These predictive equations may be cautiously used to determine accident reduction due to specific remedial measures. These new developments can be integrated into a comprehensive plan to reduce wet weather accidents, a plan which should greatly increase the effectiveness of those resources devoted to this objective.